Winter Storm: 3-15 - 3-16 Potential

[summerrules]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

It's actually a pretty eventful storm for Chicago, verbatim.  An inch of rain before a flip to heavy, wind driven snow.

Having to rely on wraparound snows for appreciable accums is not ideal. I’d really be shocked if ORD gets more than 2” out of this, even if such a solution were to pan out.

Still plenty of time for this storm to the bed too of course, so that it ends up being a nonevent for all.

[Hoosier]

35 minutes ago, summerrules said:

Having to rely on wraparound snows for appreciable accums is not ideal. I’d really be shocked if ORD gets more than 2” out of this, even if such a solution were to pan out.

Still plenty of time for this storm to the bed too of course, so that it ends up being a nonevent for all.

I get that sentiment, although the rapidly deepening system in this case could allow for pretty formidable def zone precip.  But let's see if the surface low even takes this southern track...

[MinnesotaSnow]

I don’t think we will know where this one is going until Friday afternoon. Nice to have something worth watching though 

[Hoosier]

Not that this is realistic, but it's kind of crazy to actually see this modeled within 5 days.

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Not that this is realistic, but it's kind of crazy to actually see this modeled within 5 days.

Not to downplay the storm though by any means.  This looks like an absolute whopper, with about as good of model agreement on a band of 2+ feet as you'll see for a storm in the Midwest.

[jaster220]

8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Not that this is realistic, but it's kind of crazy to actually see this modeled within 5 days.

This really has March of 2012 vibes goin for it. That one came with snow cover still intact tho. Maps may have looked similar back then if you saved any?

[Money]

19 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Not that this is realistic, but it's kind of crazy to actually see this modeled within 5 days.

I mean even half of that would be one of the top storms in March ever for snow 

Euro is showing 50-60 mph winds as well on the backside of the system as it’s deepening 

[Clinton]

25 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Not that this is realistic, but it's kind of crazy to actually see this modeled within 5 days.

I thought forsure I had seen my last snowflake this season but maybe not.  March can be strange sometimes this storm will bury somebody. 

[MMike]

Just now, Clinton said:

I thought forsure I had seen my last snowflake this season but maybe not.  March can be strange sometimes this storm will bury somebody. 

Come on! Can the GFS pull one out. Needs to dig like this GFS run did, we go into 20-40mph winds, snow falling and crashing temps. That would be a nice end to winter! 

[Minny_Weather]

This would be yet another winter (third straight) with my best storm of the season being in met spring if this verifies.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

31 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

This really has March of 2012 vibes goin for it. That one came with snow cover still intact tho. Maps may have looked similar back then if you saved any?

Did that have monster totals?  I remember that one with a moderate hit here.

[bud2380]

Anyone have the 18z Euro?

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Anyone have the 18z Euro?

Looks like it shifted north from 12z.

[jaster220]

7 hours ago, Tom said:

North trend in todays runs...Greenbay looks golden and possibly @jaster220land (depending on how hard it cuts)...if this thing keeps getting stronger on the models, then you'll prob switch over...Lehs up north is legitimately a big deal with how cold this airmass is and a long duration ENE wind by GRB...

12z GFS....yeesh!

 

12z Canadien...

 

12z UKIE...

 

Before I sweat over that, I have this little clipper storm to get through! This is one of the more robust GRR maps for up here.

 

[jaster220]

35 minutes ago, WildWisconsinWeather said:

Did that have monster totals?  I remember that one with a moderate hit here.

24" in NWMI at and around Traverse City. I wasn't a resident then, but we managed to sneak into the area from the less snowy east side. It was a nice storm for NMI.

[Stacsh]

Not even interested in this storm.   Hoping it continues the trend north.   Looks like a pretty warm pattern after next week.   Looking forward to it.    I’ll take up and down over constant cold.   

[jaster220]

[jaster220]

10 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Not even interested in this storm.   Hoping it continues the trend north.   Looks like a pretty warm pattern after next week.   Looking forward to it.    I’ll take up and down over constant cold.   

Smile - APX says just rain for yby. And yes, 7-10 day stretch and we start to warm again. 68 w/sunshine to scraping my car windows this evening. Not as bad as Feb 2024 with its 4" of snow sideways the day after 68 deg.

[Money]

49 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Looks like it shifted north from 12z.

40 inches even on euro is crazy 

[bud2380]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Looks like it shifted north from 12z.

Really impressive wrap around snow in eastern Iowa. Much like the GFS. Interesting 

[OttumwaSnomow]

 

[bud2380]

GFS isn’t backing down

[Hoosier]

3 hours ago, Money said:

40 inches even on euro is crazy 

At this point I'd say it's not a crazy thought that there could be 30"+ amounts somewhere.  The wind is likely to have a deleterious effect on ratios, especially beyond the early part of the storm, so that's something to keep in mind when viewing the Kuchera output.  

[Hoosier]

Alrighty then

[Hoosier]

The Euro is a dangerous high end blizzard, especially in eastern WI, the UP, and northwest lower MI.  Not only crazy snow amounts, but the wind gust products have 60-80 mph gusts in those areas.  

[Money]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Alrighty then

Even the Ukie is showing 20-25 inches plus at 10:1 ratio.

Pretty crazy the consistency in the models with the higher amounts 

[Clinton]

What in the world is going on?

[summerrules]

Hope the snowpack melts quickly and doesn’t end up having much of an impact on the late week warm-up. Still think the majority of the big snow ends up north of the border, but really won’t know for sure until Sat.

You’d think with such a dynamic system that there may be some further north trends, but this winter/early spring has been throwing lots of weird surprises/curveballs for some reason, so who knows.

[Money]

I thought for sure we would start seeing lower totals but GFS and ICON still showing 30-40 inches plus 

Should start getting into NAM territory today 

[Money]

1 hour ago, summerrules said:

Hope the snowpack melts quickly and doesn’t end up having much of an impact on the late week warm-up. Still think the majority of the big snow ends up north of the border, but really won’t know for sure until Sat.

You’d think with such a dynamic system that there may be some further north trends, but this winter/early spring has been throwing lots of weird surprises/curveballs for some reason, so who knows.

I agree with the north trends but I also know that Lake Michigan in the spring tends to keep storm tracks to the south 

[bud2380]

The wrap around snow on the Euro has decreased coverage and intensity the last couple of runs. It just takes longer to crank up and mostly misses Iowa. I hope the GFS is right. I want one last taste of winter 

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, bud2380 said:

The wrap around snow on the Euro has decreased coverage and intensity the last couple of runs. It just takes longer to crank up and mostly misses Iowa. I hope the GFS is right. I want one last taste of winter 

There is a trend with the Euro AI for a slower system that looks more like the GFS. 

[Tom]

5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

There is a trend with the Euro AI for a slower system that looks more like the GFS. 

I wonder if storms that are this explosive/dynamic feed off of the relatively warm LM waters???  It seems to be a trend based off of the animation above.  Just like storms that explode off the East Coast in a much more massive scale, this could be a similar situation but in a smaller scale.

[Clinton]

Just now, Tom said:

I wonder if storms that are this explosive/dynamic feed off of the relatively warm LM waters???  It seems to be a trend based off of the animation above.  Just like storms that explode off the East Coast in a much more massive scale, this could be a similar situation but in a smaller scale.

That would make.  I would assume the lake temperatures are still in thr 30s?

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

That would make.  I would assume the lake temperatures are still in thr 30s?

Upper 30's right now...

https://seagull.glos.org/map?coords=-88.4820557%2C42.3451074%2C7&tags=platforms%3Abuoy%2Cweather%3Asurface_water_temperature%2Cwater%3A%2Cfavorite%3A%2Corg%3A

[bud2380]

Wording you don't see often from an AFD.  This is from LaCrosse.

 

- A major winter storm is shaping up for Saturday night into
  Sunday night across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. There
  is high confidence (80-95%) in a band of 6-12 inches of snow
  with localized amounts of 18 to 24 inches (30-40% chance). The
  big question remains exactly where this band of heavy snow
  sets up. This heavy snow combined with strong winds Sunday
  afternoon/night may lead to impossible travel at times during
  this storm.

[bud2380]

NAM is now in range for much of the front end of the storm.  It's also showing a very healthy deformation band on the back end at the end of the run.

 

[Money]

12z Icon 

[Hoosier]

Obviously a big snowmaker, but don't sleep on the ice aspect either.  Even if ice amounts don't get out of hand, the wind is going to exacerbate impacts on trees/powerlines.

[bud2380]

Nearly a foot for Iowa City on the ICON