Winter Storm: 3-15 - 3-16 Potential

[bud2380]

GFS not done yet either.

[bud2380]

The slower this storm moves, the better that deformation zone will be on the western end.  Right now eastern Iowa in a better spot than central Iowa.  

[bud2380]

AIGFS - wish they had a snow map, it's really hard to tell in IA when this switches over, but a solid amount is snow.

[bud2380]

For sure this is all snow in the Iowa City/Cedar Rapids area between 1pm and 7pm Sunday.  So looks like roughly .6" or so of QPF as snow at a minimum in total.  

 

[MMike]

Blizzard in KC with that track on the GFS and AIGFS

[jaster220]

12 hours ago, Hoosier said:

At this point I'd say it's not a crazy thought that there could be 30"+ amounts somewhere.  The wind is likely to have a deleterious effect on ratios, especially beyond the early part of the storm, so that's something to keep in mind when viewing the Kuchera output.  

Where's @Clinton's WxBell Kuchera mega-weenie maps when you really want to see one?????

[summerrules]

Congrats Green Bay. Prob gonna see their biggest snowstorm on record.

[jaster220]

17 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Not that this is realistic, but it's kind of crazy to actually see this modeled within 5 days.

Quite a bit of these totals maps are contaminated with the sig storm today/tonight keep in mind. Last evening the little MS wx widget was showing 3-5" tomorrow for Harrison and about 26" more from Sunday to early Tuesday. Total fantasy garbage ofc but not something you'll see very often.

[Hoosier]

That is one potent band of ice on the GFS... all of this happens in like 3 hours here.  Even though FRAM tends to be better than the basic freezing rain qpf maps, I wonder if there would still be more runoff given the very heavy precip rates.  Not worth putting a lot of effort into evaluating yet though.

 

[Clinton]

4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Where's @Clinton's WxBell Kuchera mega-weenie maps when you really want to see one?????

I'm in disbelief that I may get another snow storm this year lol.

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, summerrules said:

Congrats Green Bay. Prob gonna see their biggest snowstorm on record.

Somebody's gonna score my CAT-5 dream bliz by the looks of it. Took the fam up to TC for unofficial chase with the 2012 Big Dog (they didn't have clue we were driving right into a huge storm - wink). But I don't think I can just go AWOL up to some place where I may be stranded a day or two this go-round. Stay tuned..

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Quite a bit of these totals maps are contaminated with the sig storm today/tonight keep in mind. Last evening the little MS wx widget was showing 3-5" tomorrow for Harrison and about 26" more from Sunday to early Tuesday. Total fantasy garbage ofc but not something you'll see very often.

Good point.  Would be nice to have a 48 hour map for just this storm.

[Tom]

3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Quite a bit of these totals maps are contaminated with the sig storm today/tonight keep in mind. Last evening the little MS wx widget was showing 3-5" tomorrow for Harrison and about 26" more from Sunday to early Tuesday. Total fantasy garbage ofc but not something you'll see very often.

Resembles the snow maps from the East Coast blizzard a couple weeks back!  Could this one come close?  Prob not but I bet the lakeshore areas of LM do quite well.

[WBadgersW]

This is looking to shape up to be one messy storm for S.WI. Hopefully the warming trends continue and we remain mostly rain with some backend snow.

 

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, Tom said:

Resembles the snow maps from the East Coast blizzard a couple weeks back!  Could this one come close?  Prob not but I bet the lakeshore areas of LM do quite well.

Places in Yooperland could exceed the EC bliz when you combine tonight's storm and the weekend Big Dog.

[Clinton]

Canadian is slowing down and putting together a better defo band. 

[Tom]

11 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Places in Yooperland could exceed the EC bliz when you combine tonight's storm and the weekend Big Dog.

Hopefully your intuition is right about the way this season ends and provides some insight for next winter.  

[bud2380]

UK 10:1

[bud2380]

Canadian

 

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Canadian

 

There's good agreement on a solid def zone... it's more a question of where.  I think back on the recent Tuesday system that the Canadian kept trying to blast north, which didn't happen, but every system is different and certainly this one is a lot more dynamic than the Tuesday system.  

[bud2380]

GEFS

 

[james1976]

Thats wild for only 2-3 days out.

[Money]

9 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

GEFS

 

That’s insane for an ensemble mean lol 

[james1976]

11 minutes ago, Money said:

That’s insane for an ensemble mean lol 

Exactly what I was thinking 

[bud2380]

Euro AI pretty weak with the defo band in IA.

 

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Euro AI pretty weak with the defo band in IA.

 

With it being quite an anomalous setup, I wonder if AI will be playing catchup.  

[bud2380]

Euro is just way different than all other models. 

[bud2380]

There is basically no defo band.

 

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

There is basically no defo band.

 

It's there, it's just in Illinois.

[Money]

Euro is like 20 inches of snow here and a bunch of freezing rain before that 

[bud2380]

37 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

It's there, it's just in Illinois.

Yeah it just takes a really long time to form. 

Euro vs. GFS/UK/ICON at 84 hours are very different on the backside of the low. 

 

[Hoosier]

Initial weenie band of snow coming into view on HRRR

[badgerwx]

Winter Storm Watch issued for my area. 7 PM Saturday through Monday 1 PM. 

[Money]

11 minutes ago, badgerwx said:

Winter Storm Watch issued for my area. 7 PM Saturday through Monday 1 PM. 

Same 

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow is possible Saturday night and
  Sunday, especially north of I-94. A wintry mix will be possible
  for a time Saturday night and Sunday, including a chance for sleet
  and freezing rain, particularly along and south of the I-94
  corridor. Rain may also mix in for a time mainly south of I-94.
  The wintry mix is expected transition to moderate to heavy snow
  across southern Wisconsin Sunday evening, persisting into Monday.
  Strong winds and blowing snow will likely continue into Monday as
  well.

[Money]

Winter Storm Watch in GB area calling for 12-18 with localized amounts up to 24

Including the cities of Chilton, New Holstein, New London, Menasha,
Marshfield, Oshkosh, Appleton, Green Bay, Brillion, Wisconsin Rapids,
Wautoma, Stevens Point, Kewaunee, Manitowoc, Clintonville, Neenah,
Waupaca, Redgranite, Plover, Two Rivers, and Luxemburg
238 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 12 and
  18 inches with localized totals in excess of 24 inches possible.
  Winds could gust as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portage, Waushara, Wood, Calumet, Manitowoc, Winnebago,
  Brown, Kewaunee, Outagamie, and Waupaca Counties.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through Monday afternoon.

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, Money said:

Winter Storm Watch in GB area calling for 12-18 with localized amounts up to 24

Including the cities of Chilton, New Holstein, New London, Menasha,
Marshfield, Oshkosh, Appleton, Green Bay, Brillion, Wisconsin Rapids,
Wautoma, Stevens Point, Kewaunee, Manitowoc, Clintonville, Neenah,
Waupaca, Redgranite, Plover, Two Rivers, and Luxemburg
238 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 12 and
  18 inches with localized totals in excess of 24 inches possible.
  Winds could gust as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portage, Waushara, Wood, Calumet, Manitowoc, Winnebago,
  Brown, Kewaunee, Outagamie, and Waupaca Counties.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through Monday afterton.

Impressive to already have those kind of amounts in the watch text this far in advance.

[Money]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Impressive to already have those kind of amounts in the watch text this far in advance.

Yeah. I don’t buy these high amounts yet either but can always ramp up the amounts if things hold next two days 

[Money]

From MKE AFD

 

Here are a few things to keep an eye on over the next couple days.
The first thing to watch are the surface and 850 mb low tracks.
Given the expected transition from rain to mixed precip to very
heavy snow over a fairly short distance with this deepening low,
any wobble north/south with the low tracks would have a
significant impact on local precip types/amounts. As mentioned
already, while the surface low track has remained fairly steady,
the 850 mb low has been trending northward. Another trend to watch
is that models have been slower with the exit of this system,
lingering into at least Monday morning with the moderate to heavy
snow and blowing snow. This would bring the higher impacts into
the Monday morning commute. Lastly, models are often on the high
side with storm total liquid equivalent 2-4 days out. Given the
current anomalously high storm totals for a winter storm, it will
be worth watching if models start coming down with totals in the
next 24-48 hours. Give the strength of this system though, liquid
equivalent totals of 1-2 inches seem reasonable, maybe not upwards
of 3" per 12Z deterministic models.

[Hoosier]

fwiw, the record snowstorm for Green Bay is 29.0", back in March 1888.  They've only had 3 storms over 20":

March 1-2, 1888:  29.0"

April 13-16, 2018:  24.2"

January 8-9, 1889:  23.1" (back to back yrs wtf)

 

 

[bud2380]

I miss models running an hour earlier, LOL.  I realize the models run at the same time, we humans are the one who changed the time, but you know what I mean.