Winter Storm: 3-15 - 3-16 Potential

[Money]

NAM surface low is south of 12z but temps much warmer in front of it 

[MinnesotaSnow]

16 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

fwiw, the record snowstorm for Green Bay is 29.0", back in March 1888.  They've only had 3 storms over 20":

March 1-2, 1888:  29.0"

April 13-16, 2018:  24.2"

January 8-9, 1889:  23.1" (back to back yrs wtf)

 

 

Didn’t realize GRB scored so much more than MSP with that April 2018 storm. I thought the 15-16” here was impressive.

[bud2380]

18z NAM

[Hoosier]

This will be a fun one to watch when it gets into the more useful NAM range.

[Minny_Weather]

2 days out and models are still spitting out absolute video game amounts that are unheard of outside of snow belts. NAM gives me 21".

[bud2380]

RRFS

 

[Money]

12 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This will be a fun one to watch when it gets into the more useful NAM range.

Yeah I would imagine the NAM, HRRR etc will probably be amped up and further north towards the end of its run 

[bud2380]

18z ICON coming in weaker than the 12z on the defo band. 

[bud2380]

Totals cut in half to 2/3's in eastern Iowa from 12z.

 

[Money]

Icon still showing nearly 3 feet in Green Bay. Looks like it phases a bit later? 

[Hoosier]

Not a lock to occur, but there's a scenario where we run the table here from a severe threat (at least a low end one) to freezing rain, sleet, and snow over the course of several hours.  The cold air should dump in pretty quickly post-frontal, and it's possible the models will be a little too slow with that given the tight thermal gradients.  

[bud2380]

The baby Canadian went way north with the first wave of snow and is coming in slower and stronger on the defo band.

[hawkstwelve]

Starting to get the feeling I won't be flying out on Monday morning. Winter Storm Watch issued for here. Blizzard conditions possible with 6-16" forecast. Pretty noticeable they are already issuing that and going with those totals this far out.

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

The baby Canadian went way north with the first wave of snow and is coming in slower and stronger on the defo band.

Pretty far north.  Most guidance does not have the low passing north of Chicago.

[bud2380]

15z SREF

[gimmesnow]

On 3/11/2026 at 11:36 AM, Tom said:

12z GEFS...D**n, its gonna be puking snow...#thundersnow

Cascade or Devil's head ski trip???  Where is @gimmesnow??

I"m going to Lutsen that week. They are under a blizzard warning for 10-15. I'll start riding the 16th. Might get a wind hold on some Monday with some terrain closed but I'll be riding until Wednesday.

That would be an amazing hit for Mt Lacrosse. Then there's another later that week at Marquette Mountain but I'll be at Lutsen for that too. Cascade is a great place but it's terrible for real snow since it has so many flats. Granite Peak is the same situation, too much flat. You get stuck and have to skate.

I'm also looking at Jay Vermont (Jay Peak, Mont Sutton, and Owl's Nest) when I get back but they've been torching, the pictures on Facebook do not look good at all.

I was at Nub's Nob in Harbor Springs MI this week. It was amazing spring skiing but it's about to get bombed too. But I really worry about these late storms, I think sometimes they end up more as rain. I think the snow will be pretty wet and heavy.

Looks like it could be an amazing week if it all verifies. I sure wish I was up at Boyne Mountain and Nub's Nob next week. Could have been some awesome powder days but conditions should still be excellent at Lutsen after the Blizzard. Next year I am going to travel a lot more. I am actually dropping my Cascade weekday pass next year and getting Bohemia with the season pass partners. I will be able to do a lot more chasing next year. I hope to expand my range from Western UP to Galena IL to Vermont. Nub's Nob was awesome and I can't begin to imagine what that place will look like if the storm after this one verifies.

I've had Lutsen booked since the start of the season. I think I'm going to drop it next year too and just go out East instead. Usually I am very lucky and can do trips on the seat of my pants and book a day or two before I know it's going to snow. But Lutsen is locked in since I go with a group. Granite, Snow River, and Lutsen are also off the Indy Pass next year so I'll be going to a lot of places I didn't make it to this year instead of those. I would have loved to postpone Nub's Nob and Boyne Mountain to catch this snow but I am locked into Lutsen. What a serious first world problem to have, lmfao.

EDIT: But I haven't been around because my end of season has been pretty locked in. And there's not much discussion here about Vermont/Quebec area, but from what I've pieced together I might want to hold off until next year and do that late February instead. The lake already thawed and it's gonna be jet ski preparation time when I get back from Lutsen if Vermont's torching turns me off of going.

[Money]

BIG shift north on GFS this run 

looks like RGEM

[Stacsh]

So glad this sucker is not going to affect my area.   Backside snows never materialize as model so I don’t care about what it’s showing.    I expect mostly rain here and temps 10 degrees above what it’s showing.    Cut baby Cut.   Death to winter!

[jcwxguy]

Need South trend for here. I want to score at least 3". Probably dusting though 

[Stacsh]

Another note AI models are awful.  I’ve notice it all season.   Brutally bad predicting storm paths and temperatures.  Both still way south for this storm.   

[Money]

GFS 

Decent backside snow in eastern WI like the euro is showing 

Tons of precip wasted though here because of sleet with temps around 24-26 

[james1976]

24 minutes ago, Money said:

GFS 

Decent backside snow in eastern WI like the euro is showing 

Tons of precip wasted though here because of sleet with temps around 24-26 

29" in my backyard. Lock it in!

[james1976]

Watch issued here for 6-12 and 45mph wind. Up first though is the high wind warning tonight. 60mph gusts!

[james1976]

Quite the write-up from MSP

 

POTENTIAL INCREASING IN A MAJOR WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND

Winds will relax Friday evening as the first storm system departs to the east across the Great Lakes. Should have a quiet period of weather through the night as high pressure settles across the region. By daybreak Saturday, focus will quickly shift to an incoming major winter storm system that aims to produce heavy snow accumulations and significant travel impacts Saturday evening - early Monday.

FEATURES DRIVING THE WINTER STORM...The early beginnings of the anticipated winter storm can be seen via water vapor satellite over the Gulf of Alaska, where a subtle shortwave is currently circulating. To the south of the circulation, water vapor imagery captures a ribbon of rich Pacific moisture flowing into the the northwestern portions of the CONUS. The shortwave is progged to deepen as is slides southeast ahead of a ~160kt upper jet over western CONUS and will spawn a lee surface low on the order of lower 990s mb in the vicinity of western NE by Saturday afternoon. By Sunday, the upper level wave will have evolved into a well defined longwave trough and is progged to continue to strengthen taking on a closed negative tilt appearance over the Great Lakes. The associated surface low is forecast to track east from NE through IA into IL, before rapidly deepening into a strong 970s mb surface low as it cuts northeast and occludes over northern Michigan. As the expected evolution unfolds, a fetch of Gulf moisture will stream north and pair with the Pacific component to set the stage for a rather remarkable QPF footprint across the upper midwest. Ensemble means suggest 1-1.5" of QPF across southern MN and western WI! Given our forecast areas position to the north of the surface low, would anticipate the majority of precipitation falling in the snow bin, with only a short period where a rain/snow mix may occur at precipitation onset near I-90 Saturday afternoon/evening.

PRECIPITATION TIMING AND RATES...Guidance depicts an initial band of snow developing along a remnant baroclinic zone set to span from southeastern MT to northern IA Saturday morning. Could see some light snow out of this band across southwestern MN, though the lack of synoptic forcing and dry air concerns should keep this a lower impact timeframe. Following a quiet period during the morning/start of the afternoon on Saturday, mid-level warm air advection will aid in top down saturation which will support the arrival of our longer duration snow chances. Snowfall rates will increase Saturday night as a large warm advective snow shield expands across the forecast area. The most intense snowfall rates are forecast within a band of heavy deformation precipitation that will setup early Sunday, as the surface low slides to the south of the IA/MN border. Heavy snowfall rates then continue into Sunday morning before starting to decrease from west to east through the afternoon and evening as the system departs to the east. Given the dynamic nature of the deformation band of snowfall, we anticipate that peak snowfall rates will run between 1-2"+/hr early Sunday.

WINTER STORM WATCH AND EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...The extremely impressive QPF footprint, longer duration nature of the snowfall, and heavier rates have contributed to incredible snowfall output across the model suite. We continue to try to fine tune the details in snowfall expectations and lean on physical and machine learning ensemble means rather than subscribing to any one deterministic solution. Our forecast SLR`s generally range between 10:1-15:1. If you take the QPF referenced above and multiply by these SLR`s you get quite the snowfall range! A previous local study conducted at WFO MPX found that SLR`s are often capped around ~10:1 or so when heavy 6-hr QPF is in play. In addition, wind speeds will increase Sunday, likely fracturing dendrites in some fashion (though Sunday`s cold advection regime should support ratios climbing closer to the 15-16:1 range Sunday afternoon). Even when you factor in some of the negating factors for the highest SLR scenario, we`re still looking at quite the swath of heavy snowfall across our forecast locale. We`ve collaborated with neighboring offices to issue a Winter Storm Watch that goes into effect Saturday evening and continues through Monday morning. NBM`s snow potential output illustrates at least a 70% chance of 6" of snow for all communities across the Watch box. Communities across southern MN and western wisconsin currently have ~60% chance of exceeding 12" of snow. A localized band of heavier snowfall amounts (perhaps as much as 18" or so!) will likely setup from SE MN into WI, as the surface low begins to pivot. It`s going to take a few more forecast cycles to dial in the exact track of the system and position of the heaviest band, but again current trends would point towards SE MN into WI. As with any winter storm system, the large scale pieces can seem clear a few days out, but the evolution of large scale features can result in shifts. We`ll continue to monitor shifts, but do have increased confidence in the track/placement of theoverall snow swath given support from the AIFS/machine learningsolutions. 

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...Strong northeasterly winds will gust upwards of 35-45 mph Sunday. The winds will combine with falling and blowing snow to create periods of blizzard conditionsacross portions of the region. Some questions remain on how "mobile" fresh snow will be given the anticipated wetter dendrite character, though with the increasing magnitude of the wind fields feel comfortable at least messaging periods of white-out conditions. Given the current track of the storm, would favor southern MN/I-90 and I-35 south of the Twin Cities as the most likely locations to observe blizzard conditions. As such, travel conditions are likely to become dangerous and travelers should consider alternate plans.

 

[gosaints]

This screams power outage in some areas.  

 

Wont be fully sampled until saturday 12z. 

[hawkstwelve]

A shift north on the 18z Euro. 

[bud2380]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

A shift north on the 18z Euro. 

Euro shows an inch and a half. GFS shows 17” for Iowa city. I had a feeling the Euro is going to win that battle

[Clinton]

EAX take on the wind and snow potential. 

After a period of transient ridging on Saturday (bringing
another day of warm temperatures...highs in the upper 60s to low
70s), a strong system rapidly digging through the Rockies on
Saturday will approach the region Saturday night and Sunday. By
Sunday morning, a sub-1000-mb surface low is expected to develop
in the central Plains, with strong large-scale ascent leading to
a break-out of precipitation within the warm sector and on the
north side of the system (eventually wrapping to the west side
of the surface low). Models are all over the place here, though,
with the faster models basically preventing wraparound
precipitation (snow) from reaching our forecast area before the
low moves too far east of the region. The slower models,
however, give us a several-hour period of wraparound snow, with
temperatures crashing on the upstream side of the system and
very strong winds. Ensemble probabilities of advisory-level
winds are already 50-80 percent Sunday afternoon and evening,
which is contextually quite high this far in advance (signifying
high confidence). But the very different surface low evolutions
make the precipitation forecast much more challenging. That
said, NBM probabilities of measurable snow Sunday
afternoon/evening generally exceed 50 percent across the CWA
(and are mostly 70-90 percent). Probabilities for advisory-level
snow (roughly 2 inches) are generally 25-50 percent west of
U.S. 65 and 35-65 percent east of U.S. 65. In other words,
meaningful snow is on the table with this system, and combined
with the winds, could be fairly impactful. With such a wide
variety of outcomes possible with this system, it is wise to pay
attention to subsequent forecasts as details inevitably become
clearer.

[jaster220]

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

fwiw, the record snowstorm for Green Bay is 29.0", back in March 1888.  They've only had 3 storms over 20":

March 1-2, 1888:  29.0"

April 13-16, 2018:  24.2"

January 8-9, 1889:  23.1" (back to back yrs wtf)

 

 

So it was 2018, not 2019 like I was thinking. But they have four days listed, is that even possible?? 

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Another note AI models are awful.  I’ve notice it all season.   Brutally bad predicting storm paths and temperatures.  Both still way south for this storm.   

This one's got the models (and GRR's map makers) doing the same song-n-dance with tease amounts days out, only to watch it fade north at game time. I have a real concern about ice storm stuff being flashed by @Hoosier which has totally been our thing this winter! Clippers and ice storms and why not yet again? Saving the worst for last? This regime's grand finale parting shot. The NWS snow maps that are posted every day now just reflect latest thinking more than an actual forecast. 

[summerrules]

On 3/10/2026 at 5:40 PM, summerrules said:

final call for ORD: DAB

looks like Money is going to get crushed, however.

call looking $$$

[jaster220]

Can it get any more brutal for Chicagoans?

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

So it was 2018, not 2019 like I was thinking. But they have four days listed, is that even possible?? 

The thing moved slow as hell.  Here are the daily weather maps for April 13 through April 16, 2018.

 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, summerrules said:

call looking $$$

I got faith that ORD will beat the biggest February calendar day snowfall of 0.5"!

[jaster220]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The thing moved slow as hell.  Here are the daily weather maps for April 13 through April 16, 2018.

 

I wonder how Harrison faired. Looks like the freezing line stayed here or south. Hmm

[summerrules]

4 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Another note AI models are awful.  I’ve notice it all season.   Brutally bad predicting storm paths and temperatures.  Both still way south for this storm.   

the AI GFS in particular has had a terrible handle and is all over the place. Completely clueless in both the track and strength of this system. Seems almost uncharacteristically bad atm.

[sholomar]

Father is in Ozaukee County WI, I'm in Brookings County South Dakota, looking like it might go  north of him, and east of me, but NOAA is still optimistic...  Like to go jogging during snowstorms and we haven't had a 6 inch snowfall yet, so bring it on. 

 

[beaugie]

I dont think we will get much BUT I did take the plow off the atv this past weekend so its pretty much a lock we get 10" now

[Hoosier]

Some changes aloft on the 00z NAM would suggest it could be a little more jacked down the line.  Not gonna speculate on track though.

[Money]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Some changes aloft on the 00z NAM would suggest it could be a little more jacked down the line.  Not gonna speculate on track though.

yeah looks interesting so far