April 2026 Observations and Discussion

[Hoosier]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

Fridays severe threat looking better for the plains. 

Should get a risk area farther east on Saturday.

Here's the Thursday outlook.  This year has certainly been offering up chances around here so far.  In some years we haven't even had a severe threat (or maybe just one) in my backyard by this point in the calendar year.

[Hoosier]

The Thursday severe setup doesn't have quite as good mid-level lapse rates as some of the setups so far in this early season, though models do have a tongue of halfway decent mid-level lapse rates swinging in.  So with the lapse rates not looking quite as stellar, the amount of surface heating will take on greater importance as far as instability.  Currently modeled CAPE values don't look that great on most of the models, though sufficient given the wind fields in place.  Also noting that there is more of a cellular or splotchy look to the qpf on some models.  Just getting into CAM range today. 

[james1976]

We're going back to winter up here. Two systems with snow and ice looking pretty likely.

[westMJim]

Here is today's updated April long range guess. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

 

[Bryan1117]

Hey @Tom, we decided to make a Spring Break road trip to Arizona (Flagstaff) and New Mexico next week… how is the weather looking out there? Looks like it’s going to be warming back up out there by mid next week. Excited to visit as many National Parks and Monuments as possible next week.

[Tom]

45 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Hey @Tom, we decided to make a Spring Break road trip to Arizona (Flagstaff) and New Mexico next week… how is the weather looking out there? Looks like it’s going to be warming back up out there by mid next week. Excited to visit as many National Parks and Monuments as possible next week.

Sweet!  It’ll be perfect for you actually up there in the higher terrain.  There may still be some snow on top of Snowbowl Ski resort and Humphrey Peak.  Temps in the 70’s will be ideal and cool nights.  No storms in the forecast.  New Mexico might have some rain early and midweek.

[Tom]

Grand Canyon is not that far away from FLG, there are couple places nearby you should check out and one being meteor crater near Winslow off of the 40 hwy (huge comet hit the earth) and the Sunset Crater (old volcano) closer to Flagstaff.  You might be driving the 40 west to Flagstaff so Meteor Crater might be a place to stop and see.  Have fun on your road trip!

[westMJim]

The current temperature here in MBY is 37 with cloudy skies.  Today will be cool with highs staying in the 40's There is a chance of showers tonight with lows in the mid 30's a warm front will push through tomorrow and highs are forecasted to jump into the upper 60's.  In fact up to Saturday it looks to be warm with several chances of showers and possibly a thunderstorm.  Easter looks to be cold and the start of next week also look cold.  I work at the Whitecaps and opening day looks cold with a chance of snow.   

[Clinton]

Big thunderstorms overnight dropped 1.28 inches of rain. More storms and maybe severe expected later today. Mowing season has officially begun as April starts off wet.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 75/42 that 75 was the 3rd warmest high for any March 31st .  There was 0.22” of rainfall (only 0.07” here in MBY) the highest wind gust at GRR was 58 MPH out of the SW.  For today the average H/L is 52/32 the record high of 82 was in 2010 the coldest high of 29 was in 1911 the record low of 13 was in 1954 the warmest low of 52 was in 2010. The most rainfall of 1.34” was in 1929 the most snowfall of 4.8” was in 1972 and the most snow on the ground was also in 1972 with 6”.  The sunrise time today is at 7:24 AM and the sunset time is at 8:08 PM.

[Clinton]

Severe outlook for the next 3 days.

[westMJim]

Some weather history for April 1st 1923,  Residents in the eastern U.S. awoke on "April Fool's Day" to bitterly cold temperatures. The mercury plunged to -34 degrees at Bergland MI and to 16 degrees in Georgia. (David Ludlum) 1989,  Up to six inches of snow blanketed the Adirondacks of eastern New York State and the Saint Lawrence Valley of Vermont. Up to a foot of snow blanketed the Colorado Rockies. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

[Tom]

Waking up this morning has been a pleasant surprise to see a steady light rain and wet pavement.  The models were showing the rain to build down across the eastern part of the valley and it did exactly that!  Super stoked to see that the valley for the most part has received some light precip to wash away the dirt and pollution in the air.  The air quality was not so nice the past few days from the dust that got whipped up last weekend from the winds.

@Bryan1117, its currently snowing up in Snowbowl!!  

 

 

I haven't seen a radar like this in months.  Can you believe it?  Sure hope this isn't the last till we focus on the real deal Monsoon season in a couple months.

 

Ahhhh, nice and cool this morning...sooo refreshing!!!  I bet @Andiecan't wait to smell the moisture.

[tStacsh]

Looks like a very warm  April after a miserable few cold days next week.   Looks very stormy as well.    Finally a normal spring in Michigan.   Been a long time.   Up and Down.   Really warm days and some cool ones mixed in.    Classic.   

[tStacsh]

21 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The Thursday severe setup doesn't have quite as good mid-level lapse rates as some of the setups so far in this early season, though models do have a tongue of halfway decent mid-level lapse rates swinging in.  So with the lapse rates not looking quite as stellar, the amount of surface heating will take on greater importance as far as instability.  Currently modeled CAPE values don't look that great on most of the models, though sufficient given the wind fields in place.  Also noting that there is more of a cellular or splotchy look to the qpf on some models.  Just getting into CAM range today. 

Much higher dew points than last go around though.   

[Clinton]

A Flood Watch has been issued for the KC metro and my place.  Recent runs of the HRRR indicate that up to 4 inches of additional rainfall could fall over mby.  I'm kinda shaped like a bobber so I should float lol.

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

Much higher dew points than last go around though.   

Yeah, the cold front is only down around the Ohio Valley now (not the deep South or Gulf coast), so the reservoir of better moisture is able to easily advect into the area once the front comes back north tomorrow. 

As far as tomorrow, I think the wind/tornado threat could already get going around midday in parts of IA/IL, with a gradually increasing threat after that.  A little unclear on the precise evolution but there is definitely a potential scenario where it's multiple rounds of tornadic cells.  

[WeatherProtogen]

last night's storm was spectacular! lightning strikes abundant and LOUD thunder! just before it hit me, the lightning looked like a white wall behind the rain

[WeatherProtogen]

I actually have a couple videos. its low quality bc I had some technical difficulties

one was almost 20 minutes so I couldn't post it

[Hoosier]

10% tornado area added for tomorrow.

 

[Hoosier]

There sure is a lot of discrete or semi-discrete convection on the 18z HRRR for tomorrow.  

[Hoosier]

LOT certainly not downplaying things for tomorrow.  I would say that I am kind of concerned about that higher tornado threat maintaining itself a bit farther east into Chicago metro as if anything, there is a bit of an uptick in low-level shear around/after 00z (it's already pretty strong prior to that though)

 

Thursday Afternoon and Evening:

Focus then turns to the threat for severe weather. During the
afternoon and evening hours, the core of the upper-level
shortwave will eject northeastward into the Upper Mississippi
River Valley as the surface low lifts from near Kansas City,
Missouri to La Crosse, Wisconsin. Steepening mid-level lapse
rates by virtue of differential cyclonic vorticity advection
atop the continued moistening boundary layer (surface dew points
rising toward the mid 60s) will support the development and
northeastward advection of an uncapped instability plume
characterized by MLCAPE >1000 J/kg into the Mississippi River
Valley by mid-aternoon. At the same time, a 500mb speed max will
arc northeastward toward the Great Lakes atop the already
strong low-level wind field. Conceptually speaking, the synoptic
pattern including the expected path of the surface low across
eastern Iowa during peak heating matches analogs for significant
severe weather events, including tornado outbreaks, across the
region.

At this point, there appears to be two windows for severe
weather tomorrow afternoon. The first window will be during the
early afternoon hours (call it noon to 4 PM) as any residual
elevated warm-air advection convection, or newly forced
convection along a prefrontal trough, attempts to become rooted
to the eastern edge of northeastward-moving instability axis.
Often, this can lead to supercell structures that are nearly but
not fully surface-based owing to relatively cool, or at least
not primely unstable, storm-relative inflow originating off the
main instability axis. Should a supercell manage to become
surface-based during the early afternoon window, a threat for
tornadoes could emerge. Though in most cases, these kinds of
early-day supercells do struggle to latch onto the surface and
largely present a threat for lightning and downpours. (The hail
threat should be mitigated by strong low-level storm relative
inflow beneath weak shear above 3 km).

The more concerning time window for severe weather will be
during the late afternoon and evening hours (4 PM to 9 PM) ahead
of the cold front where low-level moisture will be greater,
mid-level lapse rates will be steeper, and synoptic-scale
forcing will be strongest. With semi-orthoginal orientations
between deep-layer shear vectors and the cold front, initial
storm mode will favor discrete supercells with strong mean-flow
supporting east-northeasterly storm motions of 45 to 55 mph. The
impressively sheared low-level environment characterized by
0-1km shear/SRH of nearly 40kt/275 J/kg, moisture-laden
instability axis supporting LCLs beneath 1000m, and strong
southwesterly flow to support frictionally-generated turbulent
near-surface vorticity streams will lead to an environment
uniquely favorable for strong and long-track tornadoes. Based
on the current arrival time of the instability axis, the favored
area for such a threat for tornadoes appears highest from
eastern Iowa through northern Illinois extending toward I-39,
though perhaps as far east as I-55 in the most aggressive
destabilization scenarios. Some upscale growth into clusters may
transition the primary threat to damaging winds toward Lake
Michigan and northwestern Indiana with time. And, the strong
low-level storm relative inflow beneath weak shear above 3 km
should tend to limit the threat for damaging, or at least giant,
hail. So, the main threat tomorrow could very well be
tornadoes.

As is often the case with severe weather set-ups, a regional
tornado outbreak tomorrow is hardly set in stone. One very easy
to envision failure mode is for morning and early afternoon
shower and afternoon coverage to be expansive, limiting the
ability for meaningful destabilization in the northeastward-
moving instability axis by late afternoon. In such a scenario,
new thunderstorm development along/ahead of the cold front could
be kept to a minimum or lead to low-topped "stringy" convective
elements that struggle to deepen within the strongly sheared
low-level environment. Or, thunderstorms that develop upstream
in Iowa could fall apart while moving into northern Illinois if
the northeastward movement of the instability axis is impeded.
This is all to say, the occurrence of severe weather in our
area tomorrow is not a guarantee.

When put altogether, the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded
much of our area to a Level 3/5 threat level for severe weather
(driven by tornado probabilities). Tomorrow will be a day to
stay very weather aware, especially if west of I-39, between 4
and 9 PM.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

It looks like another nationwide torch mid-month: 

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

There sure is a lot of discrete or semi-discrete convection on the 18z HRRR for tomorrow.  

Theoretically any of this stuff in the warm sector could be spinning tomorrow.  Fast storm motions too.  LOT could have their work cut out for them, potentially dealing with quite a few troublemakers simultaneously.

[Clinton]

Tornado watch for mby until 1am. Looks like things are starting to fire up.

[Bryan1117]

21 hours ago, Tom said:

Sweet!  It’ll be perfect for you actually up there in the higher terrain.  There may still be some snow on top of Snowbowl Ski resort and Humphrey Peak.  Temps in the 70’s will be ideal and cool nights.  No storms in the forecast.  New Mexico might have some rain early and midweek.

Awesome, we are excited to get out there early next week… didn’t realize that Flagstaff is at 7000 foot elevation. I am sure it’s stunning up there!

[Bryan1117]

21 hours ago, Tom said:

Grand Canyon is not that far away from FLG, there are couple places nearby you should check out and one being meteor crater near Winslow off of the 40 hwy (huge comet hit the earth) and the Sunset Crater (old volcano) closer to Flagstaff.  You might be driving the 40 west to Flagstaff so Meteor Crater might be a place to stop and see.  Have fun on your road trip!

We are planning on spending a couple days in Grand Canyon National Park and also down in Sedona. Also the Meteor Crater is a must visit as we drive over from ABQ. Will add Sunset Crater to the itinerary too… going to be bringing our hiking gear. So pumped for this road trip man… and my kiddos can’t stop talking about it in excitement.

Thanks for the info! 

 

[beaugie]

Really hope we get at least an inch or two over the next 48 hours. We have pretty bad luck getting significant rains the last few years. Thankfully last August we got a nice 3" rainfall in 12 hours and 40 miles east of us had between 12-15" of rain in that same time. Dont need that

[Bryan1117]

10 hours ago, Tom said:

Waking up this morning has been a pleasant surprise to see a steady light rain and wet pavement.  The models were showing the rain to build down across the eastern part of the valley and it did exactly that!  Super stoked to see that the valley for the most part has received some light precip to wash away the dirt and pollution in the air.  The air quality was not so nice the past few days from the dust that got whipped up last weekend from the winds.

@Bryan1117, its currently snowing up in Snowbowl!!  

 

 

I haven't seen a radar like this in months.  Can you believe it?  Sure hope this isn't the last till we focus on the real deal Monsoon season in a couple months.

 

Ahhhh, nice and cool this morning...sooo refreshing!!!  I bet @Andiecan't wait to smell the moisture.

Looks incredible, glad to see Arizona getting some much needed moisture. Hopefully the snow in the Snow Bowl sticks around until next week for us.

This system is now impacting up here in Nebraska, nice steady rain right now. Hoping to get an inch or more of rain tonight and tomorrow… will go a long way to stave off the strengthening drought here.

[Clinton]

All signs pointing towards alot of rainfall tonight for mby. 

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0070
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 PM EDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Areas affected...Northeastern Oklahoma & Southeast Kansas into
Central Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 020000Z - 020600Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of storms developing along a nearly stationary
frontal boundary and developing area of low pressure are training
and merging within the clusters as they track northeast. Despite
very dry antecedent soil conditions, rainfall rates to 2 inches
per hour with each strong cell will cause widely scattered
instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Cyclogenesis along a stationary frontal boundary is
underway across southeast Kansas this evening. A cluster of storms
have developed southwest of the low, and is quickly congealing
with other storms that have developed roughly along the
Kansas-Missouri border south of Kansas City. The storms across
Oklahoma have a history of producing rainfall rates to 2 inches
per hour. Any hail with the storms should diminish with time as
the atmosphere more fully saturates in and around the cluster of
storms. Thus, the heavy rainfall threat will increase into the
night. The low center will likely merge with a second low and
Pacific front which is back to the west (not shown). These two
features approach to each other will stall the eastward
progression of the storms over the next several hours, allowing
additional time for training convection to produce heavy rain.

Antecedent soil conditions are bone dry across all of the
highlighted area, so it may take another couple hours of heavy
rainfall across the warned area before flooding can occur. Locally
however, any areas under an extended duration of heavy rain could
see localized flash flooding occur sooner. PWATs to 1.6 inches are
being advected into the low on 30-40 kt southerly winds at 850 mb,
which will sustain the storms into the overnight as that same
low-level-jet intensifies above 50 kts once the second Pacific
front catches up to the storms.

More substantive eastward progression of the complex is expected
late tonight, after 06Z, as the Pacific front catches up to the
stationary boundary of storms and pushes everything off to the
east. This will substantially diminish the flash flooding threat
for this portion of the Plains.

Wegman

[Andie]

70-80% chance of rain after midnight.  
Great news!  We need it.  

[OttumwaSnomow]

Yesterday 3 years ago was a weather day I wont forget!

March 31 2023

2 seperate severe thunderstorms passed over mby!  I produced  ping pong size hail (largest of life). Fortunately the hail was short lived, avoiding extreme damage. However mine and many neighbors got new roofs that summer.  But the cell producing a F3 tornado was incrdible! It crossed Wapello county mostly as a rotating wall cloud, including Ottumwa City. We have a basement but with no wheel chair access we loaded my disabled son into his van and went to the local hospital half mile away. The  dropping funnel passed over my land!! About 1 mile from my land it touched down!  Quickly becoming a monster!! See photos just 3 to 7 miles from my home. The twister pics below are not mine. But most of the aftermath pics are! 

[Iceresistance]

Raining really good right now

[Hoosier]

Not sure I agree with pulling back the 5% tornado probs to west of the IL/IN border on the new SPC outlook.  Indiana and the southern half of Michigan area looks largely free of precip by late morning or early afternoon (earliest with southward extent), so should get a chance to destabilize to a degree.  Anything moving into those areas later in the afternoon into early evening could be more of a problem, imo.  No guarantees, but if I'm looking for a "sleeper" area, that would be the area.  

[Clinton]

Flood warnings through my area as 3.8 inches have fallen over mby overnight. Light rain is ongoing this morning and my 48 hr total is 5.05 inches.

[Clinton]

I didn't want to see this another freeze possible next Tuesday. 

[westMJim]

There is a cold rain falling here in MBY this morning with a temperature of 34.  The overnight low here was 32.  Today looks to have a big warm up and there is a chance of some storms later today. Even with the cold start the forecast is for highs in the upper 60’s but we shall see. If we do make the upper 60’s then today could be the warmest day in the next week. There looks to be 3 chances of some wet weather and then a major cool down for Easter and the start of next week.  At this time Easter looks to be cold and it looks cold for the start of the baseball season here in our area.  I will have to bundle up for the home opener.

KEY MESSAGES  

FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWE

THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY

Detailed Forecast

Today

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 67. East wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then a chance of showers. Low around 47. South wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Friday

Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 59. West wind 8 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Friday Night

A chance of showers before 11pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11pm and 2am, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2am. Low around 46. Light northeast wind becoming east 6 to 11 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Saturday

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2pm, then a chance of showers. High near 62. East southeast wind 10 to 14 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Saturday Night

A 30 percent chance of showers before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35.

Sunday

Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43.

Sunday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 32.

Monday

A chance of showers after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 48.

Monday Night

A chance of showers before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 27.

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 47.

Tuesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 29.

Wednesday

Partly sunny, with a high near 57.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 43/32 there was no rain/snowfall. The highest wind gust was 30 MPH out of the E.  For today the average H/L is 52/32 the record high of 83 was in 2010 the coldest high of 30 was in 1936 the record low of 17 was in 1965 the warmest low of 56 was in 2010. The most rainfall of 1.42” was in 2025 the most snowfall of 7.8” was in 1975 the most snow on the ground was 6” in 1970 and 1965.

Some weather history for April 2nd 1975, The biggest snowstorm of record for so late in the season paralyzed Chicago, IL. Up to 20 inches of snow fell in extreme northeastern Illinois, and 10.9 inches of snow closed Chicago's O'Hare Airport. (The Weather Channel) I lived in Bay City in 1975 and there was 16” of snow fall late in the day on the 2nd and into the 3rd there was very heavy snowfall and high winds and lots of thunder and lightning.

[westMJim]

A quick summery for March 2026 at Grand Rapids the mean was 40.3 that is a departure of +4.3° the high for the month was 75 on the 31^st and the low was 11 on the 1^st there was 4.73” of precipitation that is +2.23” there as just 0.7” of snowfall that is a departure of -7.0” for the winter season Grand Rapids has had 75.4” of snowfall so far that is a departure of -0.3”

 

[jaster220]

On 3/31/2026 at 9:08 AM, jaster220 said:

Non-stop T-storms overnight lasting hours. Strong rumbling & crashing thunder woke the household at least 5 times. Don't keep a rain gage but it was heavy rain like haven't seen in a long time. Hopefully, it means "green-up" that was stalled about 40 miles south of Harrison will be progressing up our way now! Golfing > snow shoveling. Plus those Robins need some relief. 

Local OBS site a few miles east recorded 1.43" and with training west to east storms that's likely close to what I got here at home. Nice refresher to rinse all salt left from the wintry stretch and add to ponds that are borderline empty. More on the way tonight by the looks of things. 

[summerrules]

21 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Looks like a very warm  April after a miserable few cold days next week.   Looks very stormy as well.    Finally a normal spring in Michigan.   Been a long time.   Up and Down.   Really warm days and some cool ones mixed in.    Classic.   

Last few springs have been great around here (with 2024 in particular being exceptional), and our last cold April was in 2022, so wouldn’t be saying “finally”.