April 2026 Weather In The PNW

[StormchaserChuck1]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

You are constantly posting stuff that involves a very limited number of analogs. There have been around 10 strong El Ninos since 1950.

I posted something with 20 analogs. I see it as interesting? The whole Mountain West anomaly reverses. I would think you would appreciate such a thing. 

[StormchaserChuck1]

10 Strong El Nino's occurring in 76 years means 1 every 7.6 years. That means the odds of having 1 within 3 years of another one is about 3x average. You guys are saying a "3" not happening /10 is statistically significant, I disagree. Expand the dataset just a little and 87-88 Strong Nino followed 86-87 Mod Nino.  There are also a lot of Strong Nina's that occurred within 3 years of another Strong Nina. 

[TT-SEA]

April 2nd in northern MN.   

[StormchaserChuck1]

^Their blizzard landscapes always look so cool. 

[Doom Buster]

11 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

I posted something with 20 analogs. I see it as interesting? The whole Mountain West anomaly reverses. I would think you would appreciate such a thing. 

It's fine. But you and Phil were dismissive of the historical analysis and stats we have on major Nino frequency, simply because of "limited data".

That's the irony. You and him both use limited data in posts all the time.

[StormchaserChuck1]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

It's fine. But you and Phil were dismissive of the historical analysis and stats we have on major Nino frequency, simply because of "limited data".

That's the irony. You and him both use limited data in posts all the time.

I just don't see the meteorological reason behind why one can't occur so soon behind another one.  I think the 5/6 recent Nina's and Strong Nino 3 years ago actually both increase the odds.

[StormchaserChuck1]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

That's the irony. You and him both use limited data in posts all the time.

You don't think 20 hottest seasons on record giving a below average mean 1 year later is significant? 

[Doom Buster]

Just now, StormchaserChuck1 said:

You don't think 20 hottest seasons on record giving a below average mean 1 year later is significant? 

Statistically speaking, 20 is not much more meaningful than 10. It is what it is.

[SunnyWeatherFan]

11 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

^Their blizzard landscapes always look so cool. 

I find them depressing 

[StormchaserChuck1]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Statistically speaking, 20 is not much more meaningful than 10. It is what it is.

One thing occurs 1/7.6 years. The other is 1/2 below or above average. So double the analog vs what I'm pointing out gives it 7.6x more credence. Not to mention that going from hot to cold is less than 50% favored in normal probability. 

[StormchaserChuck1]

Just now, SunnyWeatherFan said:

I find them depressing 

Blowing snow is the best! 

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

Blowing snow is the best! 

Maybe fun in December.   Depressing as hell in April.  

[StormchaserChuck1]

They don't typically get a lot of precip mid Winter

[TT-SEA]

Just now, StormchaserChuck1 said:

They don't typically get a lot of precip mid Winter

Minnesota gets plenty of snow in December and January.   

[StormchaserChuck1]

 

[DareDuck]

Sad that one of the 3 biggest snows of the season was in April the year, but it was a fun day on the mountain. Hopefully the next couple weeks aren’t incredibly warm and we can avoid a record early closing. 

[Phishy Wx]

2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

These are crazy anomalies in the Rockies for a 6-month period!

Warmest DJFM in Phoenix (beat it by 4.2 degrees this Winter) look like this the following Winter (+12 months): top 20 analogs:

History says it usually snaps-back

are any of those 'Snap backs' Super Ninos?

[StormchaserChuck1]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

are any of those 'Snap backs' Super Ninos?

The March pattern with a +NAO leading to ridge in the SW precedes a lot of El Nino's. 

14-15 was an analog.. led to 2015-2016 Super Nino. Actually that was the #2 year on record after this year. 

[SeattleSmokeLayerFan]

1 hour ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

They can go egg hunting in a cave where it's 45 degrees 

Good idea

[MossMan]

Starting to rain again. 

[Edmonds Husky]

Convergence zone setting up it looks like 

[MV_snow]

8 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Hopefully just thin high clouds like what the new RGEM shows for Saturday and Sunday...

My phone app says a high of 72 but “mostly cloudy” on Easter. I think it’d be tough to pull of a 70+ day in early April without ample sunshine but I guess it’s happened under SW flow before.

[SeattleSmokeLayerFan]

40 minutes ago, Edmonds Husky said:

Convergence zone setting up it looks like 

Edmonds special. Sunny down here this is why I'm so jealous of the people up north.

[TT-SEA]

2 hours ago, MV_snow said:

My phone app says a high of 72 but “mostly cloudy” on Easter. I think it’d be tough to pull of a 70+ day in early April without ample sunshine but I guess it’s happened under SW flow before.

Tough challenge on wording for those apps.   Obviously lots of sun has to make it through the clouds for it to get into the 70s right now.   But technically there will be some high clouds too.   

[TT-SEA]

I think this is good way to show Sunday...

[SeattleSmokeLayerFan]

9 hours ago, Phil said:

Was 87°F yesterday. Woke up this AM and we were imbedded in the cloud deck up here on the 29th floor and the air smelled like the ocean.

Tomorrow we’re back in the 80s again so I’ll happily take this reprieve. It’s actually soothing.

40s and clouds here today. Good reprieve from the sweltering 50s and sun earlier in the week. But now we're headed into the 60s and maybe cracking 70.... 

[Bryant]

Some beautifully stinging weather coming up I for one am looking forward to it 

[SeattleSmokeLayerFan]

18 minutes ago, Bryant said:

Some beautifully stinging weather coming up I for one am looking forward to it 

I'm looking forward to our next snowstorm. Don't know when it will come though...could be a few years.

[MossMan]

Just now, SeattleMarineLayerFan said:

I'm looking forward to our next snowstorm. Don't know when it will come though...could be a few years.

November 24th 2026. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

47 minutes ago, SeattleMarineLayerFan said:

40s and clouds here today. Good reprieve from the sweltering 50s and sun earlier in the week. But now we're headed into the 60s and maybe cracking 70.... 

[Phil]

9 hours ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

 

FWIW our rainfall climatology has changed a lot since 1979-95. It’s a lot more seasonal now, with summer being significantly wetter than winter/spring. In the 21st century July averages ~7” of rain at DCA. For comparison the 1970s-90s average was ~ 3.5”.

[Tyler Mode]

Down to 32.9 this morning.  Would be nice to score a freeze...but lots of high clouds now.

[FroYoBro]

2 hours ago, Tyler Mode said:

Down to 32.9 this morning.  Would be nice to score a freeze...but lots of high clouds now.

I am surprised to see a couple of weak showers to our west. Thought the higher pressure starting to build today would stop that this morning. 

[MossMan]

.05” so far on the day, 1.40” for the month, 17.98” for the year. 

[SeattleSmokeLayerFan]

Seems like there is more clarity on the upcoming pattern.

Looks like a long stretch of 50s and 60s with partial clouds. No day with full blasts of sun.

Easter weekend and Monday are a touch warm, but nothing to cry about. The clouds will moderate the impact.

Some showers may return here and there later in the month....but appears dry for me.

Approved weather.  

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, SeattleMarineLayerFan said:

Seems like there is more clarity on the upcoming pattern.

Looks like a long stretch of 50s and 60s with partial clouds. No day with full blasts of sun.

Easter weekend and Monday are a touch warm, but nothing to cry about. The clouds will moderate the impact.

Some showers may return here and there later in the month....but appears dry for me.

Approved weather.  

Sounds like normal April.  

[SeattleSmokeLayerFan]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sounds like normal April.  

Yes. As long as it's not a persistent hot torch in the 70s and 80s (or higher), or endless sunshine without any clouds... I have no complaint.

That becomes more and more likely by summer though it can happen over the spring too.

[SeattleSmokeLayerFan]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sounds like normal April.  

Temps seem normal overall, but precip will be quite a bit below expected. But given the above average precip we had in March.... It's fine....

[TT-SEA]

Side note... tomorrow is going to be full blasting, scorching, face melting radiance from the star our planet orbits.   Stay safe.   Soon it will be time to hunker down in a dark, enclosed room for months on end or risk death from laser level brightness that draws most of the populace outdoors.  

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Side note... tomorrow is going to be full blasting, scorching, face melting radiance from the star our planet orbits.   Stay safe.   Soon it will be time to hunker down in a dark, enclosed room for months on end or risk death from laser level brightness that draws most of the populace outdoors.  

The "sweltering" mid 60s