May 2026 Observations and Discussion

Niko · May 10

Here we go again:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1249 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-111100-
/O.NEW.KDTX.FR.Y.0005.260511T0400Z-260511T1100Z/
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-
Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-
Including the cities of Port Huron, Bay City, Lapeer, Saginaw,
Howell, Owosso, Caro, Pontiac, Bad Axe, Sandusky, Ann Arbor,
Warren, Midland, and Flint
1249 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EDT
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 32 will result in frost formation.

* WHERE...A portion of southeast Michigan.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 7 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive
  outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

Niko · May 10

Beautiful autumn-like day today w temps in the 50s and lows tanite into the lower 30s and would not be surprise if the outlying areas see upper 20s.

Andie · May 10

We’re in the low 70’s. Overcast.
They keep talking rain.
It needs to just get on with it. May see rain over the next 3 days.

Grizzcoat · May 11

Hibbing and I-Falls off to top 5 record cold starts to May- both set or tied records on the 7th/8th and this morning the 11th. (I -Falls and Hibbing currently 20F) Was MN fishing opener past wk-end and water temps well below normal (mid 40's was WARM) with ice still on some lakes in the Arrowhead... (Fishing was BRUTAL-- why I wait till next weekend!!) Quite the opposite of last year.... image.png.a2f0d96baebb72bf5a9cc4f1784f130c.png image.png.c91ec68724a9bd53b7e1cfed5c4fc14e.png

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westMJim · May 11

The overnight low here in my yard was 39 and that is also the 7AM temperature with clear skies. While it stayed in the upper 30’s here in southern lower Michigan that was not the case to our north as many locations got down into the 20’s and even more down to around 30. Today should be a sunny but cool day with highs around 60 or so. Tonight, will see clear skies with low once again dropping into the mid 30’s or so. Tuesday will see the best chance of rain this week with highs in the mid 60’s. Wednesday looks cold with highs only in the mid 50’s Thursday highs should return to the mid 60’s lows are forecasted to be in the 40’s. Friday looks to be warmer with highs in the low 70’s at this time the weekend looks to be noticeable warmer with highs in the upper 70’s to low 80’s and lows will warm up into the mid 50’s.

We now have 10 days of May 2026 in the record books and the mean temperature so far is just 48.7° that is a departure from average of -6.8 the highest so far is 76 on the 4^th and the lowest so far in 33 on the 2^nd and 8^th there has only been one day of above average temperatures so far. There have been 9 days of below average temperatures with 4 days of 10° or more below average. A very cold start to May this year. It has also been dry with just 0.03” of rainfall so far that is -1.30” below average.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 59/34 there was no rainfall the highest wind gust was 28 MPH out of the W. there was no significant weather events. For today the average H/L is 68/47 the record high of 89 was in 1896 and 1922 the coldest high of 42 was in 1966 the record low of 28 was in 1907 the warmest low of 66 was in 2022. The most rainfall of 2.98” was in 1981. Last year the H/L was 71/42.

Some weather history for May 11^th 1966 The 1.6 inch snow at Chicago, IL, was their latest measurable snow of record. Previously the record was 3.7 inches on the 1st and 2nd of May set in 1940. (The Weather Channel)1990 Unseasonably cold weather followed in the wake of a spring storm in the north central U.S. Seven cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Madison WI with a reading of 29 degrees. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Kansas, Oklahoma and the northern half of Texas. Severe thunderstorms spawned four tornadoes in Texas, and produced high winds which overturned four mobile homes northwest of Abilene TX injuring ten persons. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Niko · May 11

Its a COLD 39F under deep blue skies and a couple of autumn-like clouds in the far distance. WCF is near 33F.

Niko · May 11

57 minutes ago, westMJim said:

The overnight low here in my yard was 39 and that is also the 7AM temperature with clear skies. While it stayed in the upper 30’s here in southern lower Michigan that was not the case to our north as many locations got down into the 20’s and even more down to around 30. Today should be a sunny but cool day with highs around 60 or so. Tonight, will see clear skies with low once again dropping into the mid 30’s or so. Tuesday will see the best chance of rain this week with highs in the mid 60’s. Wednesday looks cold with highs only in the mid 50’s Thursday highs should return to the mid 60’s lows are forecasted to be in the 40’s. Friday looks to be warmer with highs in the low 70’s at this time the weekend looks to be noticeable warmer with highs in the upper 70’s to low 80’s and lows will warm up into the mid 50’s.

We now have 10 days of May 2026 in the record books and the mean temperature so far is just 48.7° that is a departure from average of -6.8 the highest so far is 76 on the 4^th and the lowest so far in 33 on the 2^nd and 8^th there has only been one day of above average temperatures so far. There have been 9 days of below average temperatures with 4 days of 10° or more below average. A very cold start to May this year. It has also been dry with just 0.03” of rainfall so far that is -1.30” below average.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 59/34 there was no rainfall the highest wind gust was 28 MPH out of the W. there was no significant weather events. For today the average H/L is 68/47 the record high of 89 was in 1896 and 1922 the coldest high of 42 was in 1966 the record low of 28 was in 1907 the warmest low of 66 was in 2022. The most rainfall of 2.98” was in 1981. Last year the H/L was 71/42.

Some weather history for May 11^th 1966 The 1.6 inch snow at Chicago, IL, was their latest measurable snow of record. Previously the record was 3.7 inches on the 1st and 2nd of May set in 1940. (The Weather Channel)1990 Unseasonably cold weather followed in the wake of a spring storm in the north central U.S. Seven cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Madison WI with a reading of 29 degrees. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Kansas, Oklahoma and the northern half of Texas. Severe thunderstorms spawned four tornadoes in Texas, and produced high winds which overturned four mobile homes northwest of Abilene TX injuring ten persons. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Good News! 80's are in my forecast for early next week, if not by weekends end. Could there be a flip ?! I believe so. Fingers crossed. This has certainly been a cold May so far, no doubt. I wonder w the warmer air arriving in the coming days, if May will turn out to be average in terms of temps. Ma Nature always manages to average things out, especially in the weather dept.

Niko · May 11

More FROST again tanite......

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
413 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-120845-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
413 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Widespread frost is likely tonight, mainly outside of metro Detroit.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

tStacsh · May 11

16 minutes ago, Niko said:

Good News! 80's are in my forecast for early next week, if not by weekends end. Could there be a flip ?! I believe so. Fingers crossed. This has certainly been a cold May so far, no doubt. I wonder w the warmer air arriving in the coming days, if May will turn out to be average in terms of temps. Ma Nature always manages to average things out, especially in the weather dept.

It will depend on the night time temperatures as we look to have average daytime highs above normal for a spell. I'm sure it will end up close to average for the month, but maybe falls a little short. Memorial weekend is showing signs up decent warmth, but it's too far out yet and the models are going back and forth.

Good news is, two more days until Spring is here to stay. Garden will be fully planted Wednesday. Doesn't look like summertime consistency yet though.

chescowxman · May 11

We have received measurable rain in 5 of the last 6 days across the county. Below normal temperatures are likely to continue today through Friday before we warm back to above normal by the weekend. The best chances of rain will be Wednesday into Thursday morning.

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Hoosier · May 11

There's been some buzz about 1997 for obvious reasons, given that we look to be heading into a Nino of similar strength. But when looking at the actual weather in both years, 2026 has been a warmer spring than 1997.

April comparison:

cd172_59_186_50_130.9_44_29_prcp.png.b7e005d9996b70836a543719dc94b0c2.png

May comparison so far. Given the extended forecast, should wipe out/moderate a decent amount of the negative anomalies, except perhaps whatever the hell is going on this month around the bootheel of Missouri, lol.

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Niko · May 11

5 hours ago, tStacsh said:

It will depend on the night time temperatures as we look to have average daytime highs above normal for a spell. I'm sure it will end up close to average for the month, but maybe falls a little short. Memorial weekend is showing signs up decent warmth, but it's too far out yet and the models are going back and forth.

Good news is, two more days until Spring is here to stay. Garden will be fully planted Wednesday. Doesn't look like summertime consistency yet though.

To play it safe, I'd wait till early June as there could be some more chilly air (but not as cold) down the pipe by months end. Some models are trying to disagree on a nice, warm pattern, but others are saying, "Wait..why not warm them up a bit."

Niko · May 11

Even colder air expected now than previous thought for tanite as lows instead of dipping down into the lower 30s, are now expected to be in the mid to upper 20s. BRRRRRR.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
205 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

MIZ047>049-054-055-062-063-070-120215-
/O.NEW.KDTX.FZ.W.0003.260512T0400Z-260512T1200Z/
Midland-Bay-Huron-Tuscola-Sanilac-Lapeer-St. Clair-Macomb-
Including the cities of Midland, Caro, Bad Axe, Warren, Port
Huron, Bay City, Lapeer, and Sandusky
205 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 27 expected.

* WHERE...Bay, Huron, Lapeer, Macomb, Midland, Sanilac, St. Clair,
  and Tuscola Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

Tom · May 11

Is the 1st Ring of Fire pattern of the season shaping up for the Heartland this Fri-Mon??? It's not necessarily your classic Hot Dome Ridge Riders but something to that degree is looking likely as the tail end of the weekend into early next week a HP crashes south into Deep Texas.

PhiEaglesfan712 · May 12

Clinton · May 12

Some slight risk chances for the plains issued for the weekend. Looking like the stormy, severe weather pattern is coming back.

westMJim · May 12

The overnight low here in my yard was 33, with cloud cover it is now up to 38. Today looks to be mostly cloudy with showers and a high that could reach the upper 60’s. It will turn colder once again tomorrow with highs only in the lower 50’s. It looks like it will be come warmer for the weekend with highs reaching near 80 it will be a nice change after all of the cold days with have had.

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 60/38 there was no rainfall the highest wind gust was 23 MPH out of the W. There was no significant weather events. For today the average H/L is 69/47 the record high of 87 was in 2022 the coldest high of 43 was in 1966 the record low of 27 was in 1981 the warmest low of 64 was in 2004. The most rainfall of 1.43” was in 1912. Last year the H/L was 83/46.

Some weather history for May 12^th 1971 Dust storms suddenly reduced visibilities to near zero on Interstate Highway 10 near Casa Grande AZ. Chain reaction accidents involving cars and trucks resulted, killing seven persons. 1990 Thunderstorms produced severe weather from eastern Texas and the Central Gulf Coast States into Missouri and Illinois. Thunderstorms spawned six tornadoes, including one which injured four persons at Doloroso MS. Thunderstorms also produced hail three inches in diameter west of Vicksburg MS, and wind gusts to 83 mph in southern Illinois, north of Vevay Park and at the Coles County Airport. High winds and heavy rain caused 1.6 million dollars crop damage in Calhoun County IL, and in southeastern Louisiana, Saint Joseph was deluged with eight inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Here in Michigan 1956 A severe weather outbreak produces tornadoes, high winds and large hail across Lower Michigan. A deadly tornado hit near Flint for the second time in three years, killing three people on the southeast side of the city. One person was killed in Gratiot County as a tornado moved between Alma and Ithaca. Muskegon was pelted with baseball-sized hail that caused thousands of dollars in damage to homes and cars.

chescowxman · May 12

Widespread lows were in the 30’s overnight with some valley locations near or below freezing this morning. The lowest reading was the 31.5 at Warwick Township. That is tied for the 2^nd coldest reading for today’s date across Chester County behind only the 31-degree low recorded at Coatesville in 1907 and Morgantown in 1963, That may well be our last freezing observation across the county until October. We continue with below normal temperatures through the rest of the work week before we warm up to well above normal temperatures starting Saturday and into next week. Rain chances increase by tomorrow night into Thursday morning.

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hawkstwelve · May 12

Ok, one last photo dump to share...

Monemvasia, Greece was a cool midevil fortress town to explore. My wife and I got lost on the twisty turny streets and found new things and beautiful views around every corner, even with the clouds and rain we had that day.

Santorini was a clear highlight of the trip. We visited the red sand beach, had lunch on the black sand beach, visited a winery at the top of the island with breathtaking postcard-worthy views, then finished with an amazing dinner overlooking Oia and the caldera. A standout, wonderful day with the family and we all fell in love with this place.

Ephesus, Turkey was much different than we expected. Very lush, green, mountainous terrain. Pretty area and it was very cool visiting such a well-preserved ancient city. Visiting the area where John and Paul preached was a notable experience for us.

Finally, we ended in Athens. We hiked up to the Acropolis and explored the Plaka neighborhood. The view from our loft was stunning.

We are now on our way back to Chicago and then home to Sioux Falls. Overall we had the trip of a lifetime and it is one we will never forget. I highly recommend checking out some of the places I've shared, especially the ones in Greece. We truly loved all our time in Greece (and especially the food!) and hope to return there again in the future!

jaster220 · May 12

On 5/10/2026 at 3:59 PM, Niko said:

Beautiful autumn-like day today w temps in the 50s and lows tanite into the lower 30s and would not be surprise if the outlying areas see upper 20s.

Had 28 degrees overnight at home. May be nearing the end of this BN stuff tho. It has prolonged/retarded the blooming stuff and the bug hatches. Both are good things.

WeatherProtogen · May 12

me waiting for a good day to play pickleball in Ohio where it's not windy and/or cold: kingpin-kingpin-clicking-pen.gif.3069954c0dd37a29aaa793219bf5bf30.gif

StormchaserChuck1 · May 12

On 5/11/2026 at 11:52 AM, Hoosier said:

There's been some buzz about 1997 for obvious reasons, given that we look to be heading into a Nino of similar strength. But when looking at the actual weather in both years, 2026 has been a warmer spring than 1997.

April comparison:May comparison so far. Given the extended forecast, should wipe out/moderate a decent amount of the negative anomalies, except perhaps whatever the hell is going on this month around the bootheel of Missouri, lol.

Big -PNA coming up. Not building a N. Pacific low like 1997

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Black Hole · May 12

2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

Big -PNA coming up. Not building a N. Pacific low like 1997

It looks very active down my way with many rounds of storms in southwest flow for the 2nd half of the month.

Clinton · May 13

The end of an Era.

The National Weather Service just announced that the NAM model (including its MOS product) will be officially turned off on August 31st, among some other products. It’s the end of an era in American numerical weather prediction modeling. It will be replaced by the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) in an effort to unify the weather modeling infrastructure.

chescowxman · May 13

Mostly cloudy today with highs not too far from average near 70 degrees. Some rain showers and maybe a thunderstorm late tonight ending toward rush hour tomorrow. We fall back to below normal temperatures both tomorrow and Friday before a big warm up with temperatures across the county reaching around 80 degrees on Saturday and the mid to upper 80’s on Sunday and Monday. Next Tuesday should be the hottest day with temperatures especially in lower valley locations possibly touching 90 degrees. We will get cooler again by the middle of next week.

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Tom · May 13

This is gonna feel might nice for my chitown peeps! Crosstown Classic as the Cubbies and Sox battle it out...should be a fun weekend in Chicago! Cubbie Blue all the way!

hawkstwelve · May 13

Back on the Great Plains of the US.

Have not been tracking the weather here recently but the upcoming few days look to be mostly sunny and warm with some chances at showers/thunderstorms off and on through the weekend. Today looks to be near-perfect with sunny skies and temps topping out around 80.

chescowxman · May 13

I have compiled the climate averages based on the NOAA calculation of Climate Normals for the philly burbs of Chester County PA for a full year with 30 year averages updated every 10 years. The first base period was from 1901-1930 with our most recent being the current climate base of 1991-2020. You can see our warmest base climate normal occurred back in the 1921-1950 and 1931-1960 periods.

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tStacsh · May 13

High of 52 (probably already set for the day) Low 80's this weekend. 86? Monday current forecast. Here we go

Hoosier · May 13

2 hours ago, Tom said:

This is gonna feel might nice for my chitown peeps! Crosstown Classic as the Cubbies and Sox battle it out...should be a fun weekend in Chicago! Cubbie Blue all the way!

Maybe it will be a semi-interesting series this year with my White Sox not being completely in the basement. Murakami has been fun to watch even though he's on pace to strike out about a million times before the season ends.

Tom · May 13

44 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Maybe it will be a semi-interesting series this year with my White Sox not being completely in the basement. Murakami has been fun to watch even though he's on pace to strike out about a million times before the season ends.

Ya, definitely nice to see both teams doing pretty good at this point in the season...

Clinton · May 13

A perfect day weather wise here with a temp of 76. Storm chances increase tomorrow and possible severe weather outbreak on Monday.

westMJim · May 14

19 hours ago, tStacsh said:

High of 52 (probably already set for the day) Low 80's this weekend. 86? Monday current forecast. Here we go

It's about time it finally warmed up. The official high on May 13th here was at 1AM during the daytime it was the coldest for any May 13th at Grand Rapids.

westMJim · May 14

The overnight low here in my yard and current temperature is 38 with clear skies. While the official high yesterday was 54 that happened around 1AM and all of the daylight temperatures were in the 40’s. Today looks like a great mid May day with highs in the upper 60’s with lots of sun. Then it really warms up over the weekend and the start of next week and there is a chance we could see some 90’s on Monday. There is also a somewhat good chance of some rain and maybe a thunderstorm. Temperatures look to range from the lower 70’s to maybe the upper 80’s with lows ranging from the 50’s to maybe the upper 60’s. A little taste of summer for sure.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 54/43. That high of 54 was at 1AM, it was still the 6^th coldest high for any May 13^th with all of the daylight hours in the 40’s the record coldest high for May 13^th is 47. There was no rainfall yesterday and the highest wind speed was 31 MPH out of the NW. For today the average H/L is 69/48 the record high of 89 was in 1982 the coldest high of 49 was in 2016 and 1924. The record low of 31 was in 1973 the warmest low of 68 was in 1962 and 1900. The most rainfall of 1.26” was in 1945. Last year it was 78/62.

Some weather history for May 14^th 1898 A severe thunderstorm, with some hailstones up to 9.5 inches in circumference, pounded a four mile wide path across Kansas City MO. South-facing windows were broken in nearly every house in central and eastern parts of the city, and several persons were injured. An even larger hailstone was thought to have been found, but it turned out to be a chunk of ice tossed out the window of a building by a prankster. (The Kansas City Weather Almanac) (The Weather Channel)1988 Sunny and dry weather prevailed across the nation. Temperatures warmed into the 80s and lower 90s in the Great Plains Region and the Mississippi Valley. (The National Weather Summary)

Clinton · May 14

A little shift north with the severe weather threat this weekend also some enhanced probabilities added to days 4 and 5.

Tom · May 14

16 minutes ago, Clinton said:

A little shift north with the severe weather threat this weekend also some enhanced probabilities added to days 4 and 5.

This could be a rather ideal scenario for all the farmers that planted their seeds. Do you see any crop growing yet?

Clinton · May 14

12 minutes ago, Tom said:

This could be a rather ideal scenario for all the farmers that planted their seeds. Do you see any crop growing yet?

We don't do crops just cattle but the guys that do locally have had a hard time with it being to wet to get them in. They will be working hard to get as much done as they can this weekend if it stays dry.

chescowxman · May 14

We picked up 0.44" here in East Nantmeal since last night, Cool and breezy today before we start a nice warming trend. Some lower valley spots may touch 90 by next Tuesday. Higher ridge locations are likely to remain in the mid to upper 80's. We will likely see a return to cooler temps toward the end of next week. Our next chance of rain looks to be toward mid-week.

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