May 2026 Weather In The PNW

[Tyler Mode]

Happy May day!  47 degrees to start so far..

[Slushy Inch]

Was not expecting my rain barrel to run out this quick

[MossMan]

This would have been a perfect spring working at the golf course, greens would be recovering beautifully from aerification with this warmth, we would be able to mow the wetter areas, things would be looking amazing! Downside…I would already be fighting with that outdated (70’s tech in the early 2000’s)  irrigation system. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Renown meteorologist Glenn Beck says this may be the worst drought in the USA since 1610. 

[Slushy Inch]

Good god 

[DareDuck]

At least the Euro shows my backyard not reaching 80 through 5/12. It would be nice to get through the first half of May without any 80s. It would also limit the window of 80+ temps to just 4 months. 

[SeattleSmokeLayerFan]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Renown meteorologist Glenn Beck says this may be the worst drought in the USA since 1610. 

It's already shaping up that way. At least we'll get some dry t-storms to kick things off.

[SeattleSmokeLayerFan]

It's already above average for summer. We're screwed.

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

I definitely am getting the feeling it’ll be a 2018 esque summer this year but we will see. 2019 started off pretty warm and dry in early spring and summer then flipped to moist in late June. 

[iFred]

[Doom Buster]

1 hour ago, KeyPeninsula_Wx said:

I definitely am getting the feeling it’ll be a 2018 esque summer this year but we will see. 2019 started off pretty warm and dry in early spring and summer then flipped to moist in late June. 

FWIW, pretty big difference so far in big picture pattern.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Al Gore now chiming in!

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

FWIW, pretty big difference so far in big picture pattern.

 

Yeah I gotcha,  I wasn’t exactly trying to make an analog out of it I just expect an exceptionally warm dry summer similar to 2015, 2017, 2018, 2022 ect. 

[MossMan]

36 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Al Gore now chiming in!

Wonder what color shade of Pepto I will be in!

[BLI snowman]

45 minutes ago, KeyPeninsula_Wx said:

Yeah I gotcha,  I wasn’t exactly trying to make an analog out of it I just expect an exceptionally warm dry summer similar to 2015, 2017, 2018, 2022 ect. 

2015 seems pretty on point right now as far as logs go.  

[Doom Buster]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

2015 seems pretty on point right now as far as logs go.  

Who can forget the big March snowstorm the south Sound had that year.

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Who can forget the big March snowstorm the south Sound had that year.

Good point. Jared only ever has focused on analogs where the weather was literally 100% identical every day for the entire year. 

It also appears that the South Sound (aka the Mecca of the Weather Universe) was actually 1.F warmer in April 2026 than April 2015. Bad sign for June!!!! 

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Good point. Jared only ever has focused on analogs where the weather was literally 100% identical every day for the entire year. 

It also appears that the South Sound (aka the Mecca of the Weather Universe) was actually 1.F warmer in April 2026 than April 2015. Bad sign for June!!!! 

Saying 2025-26 wasn't a dud because of the March miracle snow event is like saying 1980-81 wasn't a dud because of the Fraser River blast in early December.

If anything, that 1980 event was more impressive.

[Doom Buster]

8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Good point. Jared only ever has focused on analogs where the weather was literally 100% identical every day for the entire year. 

It also appears that the South Sound (aka the Mecca of the Weather Universe) was actually 1.F warmer in April 2026 than April 2015. Bad sign for June!!!! 

PDX had 40% less rain that month compared to 2026 as well!

Yes, this is the never-ending issue with analogs. There is no such thing as a perfect one. In general, analogs are mostly worthless except on the largest scales.

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Saying 2025-26 wasn't a dud because of the March miracle snow event is like saying 1980-81 wasn't a dud because of the Fraser River blast in early December.

If anything, that 1980 event was more impressive.

Oh yeah, 1980-81 was definitely a better winter for the region. That December 1980 event was great north of Marysville. Also a little snow/sleet/ZR event in mid February 1981 that was quite a bit more widespread than anything this winter.

2025-26 is in the bottom 5% of winters in the region, back to the 1850s. Region being from the Umpqua Basin on up through the Lower Mainland in BC. 

 

[Slushy Inch]

Showers possible tomorrow morning 

[Deweydog]

Sorry, Hillsboro. Gonna have to wait your turn to join the Heat Advisory Sexy Party. 

[Make -PNA Great Again]

6 hours ago, Slushy Inch said:

Good god 

Wow cool ima hit up cliff and wade lakes for kayaking soon 

[Phishy Wx]

dang I forgot it was already May

[Meatyorologist]

10 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

dang I forgot it was already May

same lol

[Meatyorologist]

This is technically April, but the other day I was walking around Kirkland and came accross some beaver shenanigans. Just east of 405 on Forbes Lake!

[StormchaserChuck1]

Congrats guys.. loading Nino pattern continues to hit

[SnarkyGoblin]

7 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Renown meteorologist Glenn Beck says this may be the worst drought in the USA since 1610. 

You have a knack for subtle trolling.

Cheers.

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

Up to 75 as summer continues to strengthen its grip. 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

4 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

2015 seems pretty on point right now as far as logs go.  

Yeah we will see, El Niño fits. This summer just seems like it’ll be hot n dry. Maybe some convection to break up the monotony hopefully. 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

4 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Who can forget the big March snowstorm the south Sound had that year.

Unfortunately it doesn’t count for analogs since OLM missed out

[Eugene-5SW]

Snapshot of the next 5 months:

[Doom Buster]

2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

Congrats guys.. loading Nino pattern continues to hit

Not great, Bob.

[StormchaserChuck1]

^Not horrible imo, they had the whole pattern 500 miles further east. Also they were weak anomalies being forecasted, 5% of the map in 3rd contour, this one has 5th contour

[Meatyorologist]

Got some showers popping up around the sound, as per CAM guidance. Should see an uptick in midlevel convection for a few hours before another wave late tonight into tomorrow morning

[Doom Buster]

8 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

^Not horrible imo, they had the whole pattern 500 miles further east. Also they were weak anomalies being forecasted, 5% of the map in 3rd contour, this one has 5th contour

If you say so...regardless, it just shows you can't really make definitive statements based off those 3-4 week forecasts. Even if they only miss by 500 mi that has pretty significant implications for the CONUS.

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, Eugene-5SW said:

Snapshot of the next 5 months:

Stock up on allergy medicine now. We’re gonna be breaking pollen records later this month.

[StormchaserChuck1]

19 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

If you say so...regardless, it just shows you can't really make definitive statements based off those 3-4 week forecasts. Even if they only miss by 500 mi that has pretty significant implications for the CONUS.

We'll see how this one verifies. 90% chance Seattle is above average

I have confidence in that one because the pre-El Nino has been hitting every month since Nov and pre-El Nino May is +0.3 temp correlation in Seattle.

[Meatyorologist]

Getting darker and stormier. Quite the convective look

[SeattleSmokeLayerFan]

70 degrees and sprinkling while Mount Rainier is in full sight and it doesn't even look that cloudy. This is what summer should be all about.