May 2026 Weather In The PNW

[Doom Buster]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

7th warmest May on record there. Good chance that June and July perform similarly. Don't really even need a hot first two days to tell me that! 

Looks like 18th warmest at OLM and and 13th for SEA.

[iFred]

[Doom Buster]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Also feels like a good time for our monthly reminder that the last time PDX saw a cooler than average month in the May-September timeframe was May 2022.

Thus, May 2026 was the 20th consecutive warm season month that failed to touch the already warm 1991-2020 averages. Like May 2026, most of these didn't even come all that close to approaching said average.

Of those 20 months at PDX, 15 were also drier than the 1991-2020 average.

I guess that means it's also a good time for a reminder that the last two Mays were cooler than OLM's period of record mean.

Again, PDX is on one end of the spectrum when it comes to these things.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, iFred said:

What I wouldn't give for this version of Cherry Picking Tim to exist in NDJF.

Why?

And I am not really cherry picking.    I would be all over a warm and dry pattern if I had any confidence but there is way too much model spread and way too many runs showing persistent troughing.    That is just my honest assessment.  

[Doom Buster]

19 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Yea. Feels like more of a typical warm ups and cool downs pattern for the first 1/3 to 1/2 of June.  Which makes sense for my area considering how warm and dry the past 6 weeks have been. 

The pattern since the 12th, so we're talking the last two and a half weeks, has definitely seen a turnaround from what dominated the 4 weeks prior.

At SEA, 12 below average days since then (today will make 13) to 6 above average days. And that ratio looks to continue through at least the first third of June.

[Doom Buster]

The new Euro is much drier and warmer after day 7 than the other models. Hope for torch fans.

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

Gfs goes in on some June 2022 wetness and I’m praying for it. Change my mind. 

[BLI snowman]

19 minutes ago, Doom Buster said:

I guess that means it's also a good time for a reminder that the last two Mays were cooler than OLM's period of record mean.

Again, PDX is on one end of the spectrum when it comes to these things.

When do you think EUG's last cool month was?

And here is the last year at OLM, relative to its period of record:

June 2025: +1.14F

July 2025: +1.76F

August 2025:  +3.22F

September 2025: +2.91F

May 2026: +2.18F

Quite the little roll that they're on, as you alluded to here. Our cool and wet 2020s climate knows no bounds.

[Deweydog]

26 minutes ago, Doom Buster said:

I guess that means it's also a good time for a reminder that the last two Mays were cooler than OLM's period of record mean.

Again, PDX is on one end of the spectrum when it comes to these things.

Hillsboro and Vancouver are running warmer than PDX this month.

[Edmonds Husky]

19 minutes ago, KeyPeninsula_Wx said:

Gfs goes in on some June 2022 wetness and I’m praying for it. Change my mind. 

Yes!!!! We need constant rainfall during dead/finals week so that students stay inside and study!!!

[T-Town]

22 minutes ago, KeyPeninsula_Wx said:

Gfs goes in on some June 2022 wetness and I’m praying for it. Change my mind. 

Once the calendar flips to June I'm ready for sun and 80 degrees. The rain will be good if it comes but I prefer sunshine at this point. Not saying I want no rain in the summer, but this is the time of year when a long string of sunny, warm days hits the spot. 

[ShawniganLake]

45 minutes ago, Doom Buster said:

The pattern since the 12th, so we're talking the last two and a half weeks, has definitely seen a turnaround from what dominated the 4 weeks prior.

At SEA, 12 below average days since then (today will make 13) to 6 above average days. And that ratio looks to continue through at least the first third of June.

It’s felt different farther north, with less marine layer induced chill.  
 

Looking at afternoon highs in Nanaimo it looks like 12 above average and 6 below.  Today will be 13 above.  
 

Looks like summer with the sun scorched roadside grasses around here.  
 

 

[Omegaraptor]

57 minutes ago, Doom Buster said:

I guess that means it's also a good time for a reminder that the last two Mays were cooler than OLM's period of record mean.

Again, PDX is on one end of the spectrum when it comes to these things.

That’s an interesting stat. If I lived in Olympia, maybe I’d care. Unfortunately, I live in the Portland metro.

[Blizzard777]

Right place but unfortunately tornado came down behind the rain curtain minutes later. Reed Timmer of course just punched through the core and reported it. They also went into hail field. The picture with the wall cloud did fail us . Both storms were side by side. The tornado produced in the other photos was heading right at us so we retreated to a gas station to find cover from hail and get out of the way of the tornado in case it held together. Was cool to have Reed chasing the same cell and on the same road a couple miles away. 
added photo of Reed showing the hail from this storm 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

12 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Once the calendar flips to June I'm ready for sun and 80 degrees. The rain will be good if it comes but I prefer sunshine at this point. Not saying I want no rain in the summer, but this is the time of year when a long string of sunny, warm days hits the spot. 

Hmmmm…liking 80 degrees and sun in the summertime doesn’t seem like normal behavior to me…

 On a serious note this spring hasn’t been too bad. Little on the warm and more so dry since March but atleast we’ve gotten some rain from time to time. Just hoping we aren’t bone dry. 

[Blizzard777]

Seeking shelter from the hail as the core of the storm went through 

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Doom Buster said:

The new Euro is much drier and warmer after day 7 than the other models. Hope for torch fans.

I want to believe!    Need the AI models to get on board.   And for the GFS to even get remotely close.   The GFS shows a non-stop storm train.

 

[TT-SEA]

20 minutes ago, Blizzard777 said:

Seeking shelter from the hail as the core of the storm went through 

IMG_4595.mov

Wow!

[Blizzard777]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I want to believe!    Need the AI models to get on board.   And the for the GFS to even get remotely close.   The GFS shows a non-stop storm train.

 

I need the none stop storm train while the Omega block is still in place out here lol.  Those are helping to fuel atmosphere for “some” storm activity

[SeattleSmokeLayerFan]

1 hour ago, T-Town said:

Once the calendar flips to June I'm ready for sun and 80 degrees. The rain will be good if it comes but I prefer sunshine at this point. Not saying I want no rain in the summer, but this is the time of year when a long string of sunny, warm days hits the spot. 

Exactly. I expect endless rain, snow, wind, and fog until June, but after that I expect the script to flip to hot sun, thunderstorms, and dry offshore flow.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Maybe I’m the only one on crazy pills. Since when did we start posting hr 300+ OP runs as a signs of where the pattern was headed? 

 

 

 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I want to believe!    Need the AI models to get on board.   And for the GFS to even get remotely close.   The GFS shows a non-stop storm train.

 

Do you look at ensembles anymore? Or is that just in winter to crush dreams? The “storm train” on a OP run at 300 hrs isn’t going to happen.

[TT-SEA]

End of May garden update...

[SeattleSmokeLayerFan]

2 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Do you look at ensembles anymore? Or is that just in winter to crush dreams? The “storm train” on a OP run at 300 hrs isn’t going to happen.

Yeah, pretty sure all the models "drenched" us last month 300 hrs out. They overdo precipitation. As I mentioned earlier, a day or two of drizzle and showers... And otherwise mostly dry, seasonable days in the 60s and 70s, with a few hotter days possible. 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Do you look at ensembles anymore? Or is that just in winter to crush dreams? The “storm train” on a OP run at 300 hrs isn’t going to happen.

ECMWF AIFS ensemble has been showing a weak troughing signal in the long range.   Which could easily mean marine layer days which struggle to get to 60 out here.   Sort of the opposite of a hot weather.   You can talk all you want about hot and dry but I don't see it yet.   

[SeattleSmokeLayerFan]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF AIFS ensemble has been showing a weak troughing signal in the long range.   Which could easily mean marine layer days which struggle to get to 60 out here.   Sort of the opposite of a hot weather.   You can talk all you want about hot and dry but I don't see it yet.   

Meteorologically speaking, instead of looking at the braindead models... Yes, it is favorable for troughing over the next couple weeks due to the jet extension that will "wash out" any stagnant ridging. No, that doesn't mean we're going to see an endless storm train and cloudy days in the 50s. There will continue to be plenty of days in the 70s, with a "rainy" day here and there.

[Edmonds Husky]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF AIFS ensemble has been showing a weak troughing signal in the long range.   Which could easily mean marine layer days which struggle to get to 60 out here.   Sort of the opposite of a hot weather.   You can talk all you want about hot and dry but I don't see it yet.   

Could also easily mean thunderstorms!

[SeattleSmokeLayerFan]

7 minutes ago, Edmonds Husky said:

Could also easily mean thunderstorms!

Don't really see a clear sign of a negatively tilted trough tapping into monsoonal moisture. Probably just wet drizzle if we get any rain. But the Euro shows a pretty solid ridging signal outside of Tim's cherry picked trough frame.

[SeattleSmokeLayerFan]

If we do care about AI fantasy land, this looks like a treat!

[ShawniganLake]

25 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Do you look at ensembles anymore? Or is that just in winter to crush dreams? The “storm train” on a OP run at 300 hrs isn’t going to happen.

I’d say the first half of June ends up near to slightly warmer than normal. 
 

 

[SeattleSmokeLayerFan]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’d say the first half of June ends up near to slightly warmer than normal. 
 

 

Fantastically points out the desensitization to heat by the Tim crowd. Slightly below average temperatures are considered part of a "cold" storm track.

[StormchaserChuck1]

New CPC June outlook

Developing Strong El Nino analogs

More +AO/+NAO this June projected, keeping the northern, US warmer. 

[StormchaserChuck1]

12z EPS really warmed up over the Great Lakes/Northeast in the medium/long term. Anti-El Nino. 

[Doom Buster]

1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

That’s an interesting stat. If I lived in Olympia, maybe I’d care. Unfortunately, I live in the Portland metro.

Ok, downtown Portland was -1.7 in May 2024. Vancouver was -.7, and HIO and Battle Ground were -1.5. MMV was below normal in both May 2024 and 2025.

Almost like PDX has been a warm outlier.

[Doom Buster]

2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Hillsboro and Vancouver are running warmer than PDX this month.

For the major I-5 stations, they still have easily the warmest departure. And Justin's warm season above normal streak stat literally only applies to PDX from Salem north.

[Omegaraptor]

21 minutes ago, Doom Buster said:

Ok, downtown Portland was -1.7 in May 2024. Vancouver was -.7, and HIO and Battle Ground were -1.5. MMV was below normal in both May 2024 and 2025.

Almost like PDX has been a warm outlier.

Fair, May 2024 was a coolish month up north but I do know there was a very sharp N/S gradient across Oregon that May and June. IIRC SLE was also running unusually warm that month.

PDX was running way warmer than any other station in the metro for no apparent reason during late winter and early spring 2025 before it was corrected. The 82°F monthly record set that March at PDX is rather suspect for that reason, but I guess NWS has bigger fish to fry than to investigate that one data point. 

[TT-SEA]

41 minutes ago, SeattleSmokeLayerFan said:

Fantastically points out the desensitization to heat by the Tim crowd. Slightly below average temperatures are considered part of a "cold" storm track.

All I said was I don’t see any extended hot spells.   And I stand by that.  And I am not even sure the first half of June ends up warmer than normal.   Which isn't too far off what that chart is saying.   I understand climo... stop with your whiny drama.

[MV_snow]

4 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Also feels like a good time for our monthly reminder that the last time PDX saw a cooler than average month in the May-September timeframe was May 2022.

Thus, May 2026 was the 20th consecutive warm season month that failed to touch the already warm 1991-2020 averages. Like May 2026, most of these didn't even come all that close to approaching said average.

Of those 20 months at PDX, 15 were also drier than the 1991-2020 average.

I know your climate has changed more than ours, but I’m legit surprised PDX couldn’t even pull this off in June 2022. That was an old school ULL fest up here, but it must’ve been the ridging during the last week (that kicked off a very hot and dry J/A/S) that pushed you over the average.

[MV_snow]

3 hours ago, Doom Buster said:

Looks like 18th warmest at OLM and and 13th for SEA.

I never would’ve guessed this May was the 13th warmest ever at SEA, but that just goes to show how acclimated I am to the new normal. Felt like a garden variety May with warm ups and cool downs. It must’ve only been the duration of the ridge at the beginning of the month that caused this.

[Doom Buster]

10 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

I never would’ve guessed this May was the 13th warmest ever at SEA, but that just goes to show how acclimated I am to the new normal. Felt like a garden variety May with warm ups and cool downs. It must’ve only been the duration of the ridge at the beginning of the month that caused this.

Given climate change and UHI, 13th at SEA is pretty garden variety. Very close to average for the past 20 years.