June 2026 Observations and Discussion.

Hoosier · June 11

The CAMs are not really handling the ongoing convection well, which reduces confidence in the details regarding the severe threat later today. But there is reason for concern around here. Based on radar trends, we may get a round of storms in a little while, but it looks like I will be near the southern end of those or the southern end won't be too far south of here. Despite coming in at essentially prime time of day, there could be enough time for some atmospheric recovery later especially given the relatively strong synoptics/wind fields for this time of year.

In hockey there is a term about trying to anticipate where the puck will go. In this case we're trying to anticipate where the outflow boundary will be several hours from now, and I am concerned it will be somewhere in my vicinity. If that's the case and IF there is discrete convection to take advantage of that later, then that could be a big problem. Very possible that the storm mode ends up being more of a QLCS by the time it gets here though, in which case it would have considerable damaging wind potential but also a heightened QLCS tornado risk.

fwiw, here's an HRRR forecast sounding for around here later, just ahead of the storms.

Clinton · June 11

I got a severe thunderstorm watch for a line of storms along the cold front that should be here in about an hour. I'm not expecting much but this year who knows.

Hawkeye · June 11

I got another 2.21" of rain today. It just keeps coming this month. My June total is 5.97".

Hoosier · June 11

How quickly/to what extent do we recover in the LOT cwa... that is the question.

On 6/30/2014, there was a somewhat similar scenario where a line of storms went through in the afternoon and laid out a boundary that started to retreat north in the evening. Then another line of storms came along and was a prolific QLCS tornado producer, especially south of I-80. Do we see an outcome like that tonight?

Clinton · June 11

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

How quickly/to what extent do we recover in the LOT cwa... that is the question.

On 6/30/2014, there was a somewhat similar scenario where a line of storms went through in the afternoon and laid out a boundary that started to retreat north in the evening. Then another line of storms came along and was a prolific QLCS tornado producer, especially south of I-80. Do we see an outcome like that tonight?

Reed Timmer seems to think it will go big at least close to your area.

A TORNADO OUTBREAK with strong-to-violent tornadoes possible is about to begin across eastern Iowa into northern Illinois. Stay tuned to severe weather watches and warnings in the outlined target area

Clinton · June 11

The line of storms blew through my area and dropped .69 inches. I had a warned cell move through for 60mph winds but my strongest gust was 39mph.

Hoosier · June 11

28 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Reed Timmer seems to think it will go big at least close to your area.

A TORNADO OUTBREAK with strong-to-violent tornadoes possible is about to begin across eastern Iowa into northern Illinois. Stay tuned to severe weather watches and warnings in the outlined target area

There are some discrete/semi-discrete cells between Peoria and Pontiac that have produced tornadoes. If that kind of mode can be maintained, they could head this way later.

Hoosier · June 11

Stuff's going crazy in IL.

Hoosier · June 12

Potentially large tornado went to my south/east a while ago around Merrillville, IN.

metallica470 · June 12

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Potentially large tornado went to my south/east a while ago around Merrillville, IN.

The debris signature on that one was huge!

Hoosier · June 12

2 minutes ago, metallica470 said:

The debris signature on that one was huge!

Yes. I am scouring for info right now. Have heard reports of roofs being ripped off. Tornado would've crossed over some busy roads including I-65.

metallica470 · June 12

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Yes. I am scouring for info right now. Have heard reports of roofs being ripped off. Tornado would've crossed over some busy roads including I-65.

That's wild. Looked pretty close on radar to that Menards in Merrillville if I had to guess right next to I-65

Actually looks just north of there hitting the high school then possibly crossing 65

Hoosier · June 12

1 hour ago, metallica470 said:

That's wild. Looked pretty close on radar to that Menards in Merrillville if I had to guess right next to I-65

Actually looks just north of there hitting the high school then possibly crossing 65

There are 2 high schools in Merrillville -- Andrean (Catholic school) and Merrillville High School. Andrean got hit for sure because I saw a bunch of damage pics from there. But depending on how wide the tornado was and the exact track, it's possible that Merrillville High School also took a hit. If not, it would've been very very close.

Overall, seeing pics of a ton of trees down and also some structural damage throughout Merrillville. Haven't seen any damage from there that looks particularly high end *so far* (what I saw looked perhaps EF2-ish), but it's dark now and info is going to be more limited. Will have a better idea tomorrow.

Hoosier · June 12

Here's a screenshot of a video of damage from Merrillville. This is one of the more substantial damage pics I have seen from there up to this point. Based on the totality of the evidence from across Merrillville, I'd certainly be pretty confident in saying this tornado was at least EF-2. The question is whether there will be anything to justify a higher rating.

westMJim · June 12

Last night’s storms brought down some trees and there are areas of power outages mostly to the SE of the Grand Rapids area. Consumers power has about 33,270 without power this morning. No reports of widespread damage here in our area. Here in my yard I had winds that may have reached the 30 MPH range, some lightning (not a lot) and at most moderate rainfall. My rain total for yesterday and overnight was 0.25”. The overnight low here in my yard is the current temperature of 58.

Today and Saturday should be nice with sun and highs in the upper 70’s today and mid 80’s tomorrow. Lows will be around 60. A good chance of showers return Saturday night into Sunday. Sunday looks cool with highs in the upper 60’s. Next week looks cooler with highs in the 70’s and lows in the 50’s there are several chances for showers.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 84/66 there were 10 Cooling Degree Days. There was 0.31” of rainfall at the airport. The highest wind gust was 36MPH out of the S. Some weather events reported were Thunderstorm, rain, and Fog. For today the average H/L is 79/58 the record high of 96 was in 1901 the coolest high of 56 was in 1985 the record low of 38 was in 1903 the warmest low of 70 was in 2005. The most rainfall of 1.89” was in 1996. Last year the H/L was 77/63 and there was 0.12” of rainfall.

Some weather history for June 12^th, 1969, Record late season snows covered parts of Montana. Five inches was reported at Great Falls and east of Broadus. Billings, MT, tied their June record with lows of 32 degrees on the 12th and the 13th. (The Weather Channel) 2005, A tornado in Hammond, Wisconsin damaged 22 homes and produced $3.6 million in damage (Associated Press). Here in Michigan 1984, an F3 tornado hit Bay County at 6:20PM and caused $2,500,000 in damage. Two individuals were reported injured, but there were no deaths. This was the strongest tornado ever reported in Bay County. 2008, Historic flash flooding results from up to a foot of rain near Ludington and Manistee. More than 40 roads were washed out and some of them were not repaired for several months. The torrential rains are preceded by a severe thunderstorm that dropped two tornadoes. The first tornado came ashore north of Ludington at the Nordhouse Dunes Wilderness Area, downing hundreds of trees. A second tornado hit near Stronach in Manistee County.

Clinton · June 12

A very nice day on tap for today with highs around 80. More severe storms with all hazards possible across Missouri and eastern Kansas tomorrow.

More heavy rains possible across the Midwest later next week.

OttumwaSnomow · June 12

2.97" wednesday and thursday.

3.84" in June.

A round of storms saturday pm and long range show no let up in the rain the rest of June!!!!

Tom · June 12

38 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

2.97" wednesday and thursday.

3.84" in June.

A round of storms saturday pm and long range show no let up in the rain the rest of June!!!!

#NWFlow in "Summa Time" is about as good as it gets in terms of seasonal weather and active patterns. Lesss Gooo!! Ideal growing conditions?? If I recall correctly, I read somewhere that very humid and warm overnight conditions are bad for farmers. Does that sound about right? Is it heat stress or something like that? Thankfully, I see no signs of this over the next 2 weeks for most of the Ag Belt and Midwesterners.

Niko · June 12

Mainly a wind machine came by last nite w vivid lightning and torrential downpours. No reported tornadoes here.

It feels beautiful outside now w a blend of clouds & sun, along w breezy conditions and temps in the upper coolish 60s.

Niko · June 12

9 hours ago, westMJim said:

Last night’s storms brought down some trees and there are areas of power outages mostly to the SE of the Grand Rapids area. Consumers power has about 33,270 without power this morning. No reports of widespread damage here in our area. Here in my yard I had winds that may have reached the 30 MPH range, some lightning (not a lot) and at most moderate rainfall. My rain total for yesterday and overnight was 0.25”. The overnight low here in my yard is the current temperature of 58.

Today and Saturday should be nice with sun and highs in the upper 70’s today and mid 80’s tomorrow. Lows will be around 60. A good chance of showers return Saturday night into Sunday. Sunday looks cool with highs in the upper 60’s. Next week looks cooler with highs in the 70’s and lows in the 50’s there are several chances for showers.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 84/66 there were 10 Cooling Degree Days. There was 0.31” of rainfall at the airport. The highest wind gust was 36MPH out of the S. Some weather events reported were Thunderstorm, rain, and Fog. For today the average H/L is 79/58 the record high of 96 was in 1901 the coolest high of 56 was in 1985 the record low of 38 was in 1903 the warmest low of 70 was in 2005. The most rainfall of 1.89” was in 1996. Last year the H/L was 77/63 and there was 0.12” of rainfall.

Some weather history for June 12^th, 1969, Record late season snows covered parts of Montana. Five inches was reported at Great Falls and east of Broadus. Billings, MT, tied their June record with lows of 32 degrees on the 12th and the 13th. (The Weather Channel) 2005, A tornado in Hammond, Wisconsin damaged 22 homes and produced $3.6 million in damage (Associated Press). Here in Michigan 1984, an F3 tornado hit Bay County at 6:20PM and caused $2,500,000 in damage. Two individuals were reported injured, but there were no deaths. This was the strongest tornado ever reported in Bay County. 2008, Historic flash flooding results from up to a foot of rain near Ludington and Manistee. More than 40 roads were washed out and some of them were not repaired for several months. The torrential rains are preceded by a severe thunderstorm that dropped two tornadoes. The first tornado came ashore north of Ludington at the Nordhouse Dunes Wilderness Area, downing hundreds of trees. A second tornado hit near Stronach in Manistee County.

With next weeks cooler air, I stand a good chance of seeing lows in the upper 40s. My low Sunday nite is near 50F. Someone will likely see 40s for lows. That will feel so refreshing!

Tom · June 12

Just saw a live shot from one of the valley cam's and there was a rainbow that formed! I take that as a + sign for things to come in the Valley of the Sun! Happy Friday folks! I must admit that the moisture in the air does feel a hellova lot of different as the DP's have increased into the 50's. I'd say today marks the start of the Monsoon for the Valley. Let's go USA and pull off a win today! #WorldCup

Black Hole · June 12

I've been extremely unlucky this week with most areas around me seeing several inches, but I've had none. Looks like rain chances will be continuing into the weekend so probably at some point I get something.

Hoosier · June 12

Fortunately, have not heard about anything beyond minor injuries with the Merrillville tornado so far.

Will probably take a ride there later and look around a bit as it's the next town over from me. Not really going to be able to get into the hardest hit area but I've been feeling under the weather anyway and don't want to spend a whole lot of time on it. I'm curious to see where the damage path starts because my sister used to live near the western Merrillville border and the couplet would've passed very close by.

Tom · June 12

Just as I walked outside for my walk…

WildWisconsinWeather · June 12

This June has largely been enjoyable thus far, and after two more days of 80-85 range looks like we get back into top notch summer temps for awhile.

OttumwaSnomow · June 12

Nice 48 hr map of the 5 different thunderstorms I got.

And some hail/wind damage of a customers corn.

The good corn is mine.

Hoosier · June 12

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Fortunately, have not heard about anything beyond minor injuries with the Merrillville tornado so far.

Will probably take a ride there later and look around a bit as it's the next town over from me. Not really going to be able to get into the hardest hit area but I've been feeling under the weather anyway and don't want to spend a whole lot of time on it. I'm curious to see where the damage path starts because my sister used to live near the western Merrillville border and the couplet would've passed very close by.

Not to leave out the other hard hit areas in the LOT cwa... the tornadoes in Streator, IL and around Kouts, IN both look like potential EF3 candidates imo, but we'll see what the NWS determines.

Niko · June 12

2 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Nice 48 hr map of the 5 different thunderstorms I got.

And some hail/wind damage of a customers corn.

The good corn is mine.

Speaking of corn, tanites dinner will feature corn on the cob for me w grilled chicken (on the grill). I luv sweet corn. I used to eat it raw tbh. It tastes very good.

Niko · June 12

Gorgeous afternoon here in S MI w temps in the upper 70s w a nice breeze and much less humid conditions.

Clinton · June 12

Flood watch is in effect and a moderate chance for excessive rainfall tomorrow.

OttumwaSnomow · June 12

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Flood watch is in effect and a moderate chance for excessive rainfall tomorrow.

North central mo is a lake. Gotta be spots with 15 or more inches in past 2 weeks. I was there monday it was super wet!! Rained 6 to 8 inches since then!

Clinton · June 13

36 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

North central mo is a lake. Gotta be spots with 15 or more inches in past 2 weeks. I was there monday it was super wet!! Rained 6 to 8 inches since then!

Major flooding on the Chariton, Salt and Grand rivers. The Missouri River is also running very high.

Hoosier · June 13

6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Not to leave out the other hard hit areas in the LOT cwa... the tornadoes in Streator, IL and around Kouts, IN both look like potential EF3 candidates imo, but we'll see what the NWS determines.

LOT rated both Streator and Kouts EF-3.

I took a ride around Merrillville and surrounding area a little while ago. To my surprise, I was able to get into some of the hardest hit areas without any problem as there was no debris blocking the roads, at least not anymore. Didn't see the entire damage path as that would've taken too long. It is such a mess... it's going to take weeks or more likely months to clear all the debris and rebuild. Saw a number of examples of what looked like solid EF-2 damage, and a couple areas that may have been higher end EF-2 (low end EF-3?). But being conservative, I expect this tornado to get at least an EF-2 rating.

OttumwaSnomow · June 13

Heres a crazy fact!!!

On cocorahs reports Russel, Iowa between Chariton and Albia Iowa is the wettest spot in June so far IN THE CONTINENTAL USA !! ONLY A FEW SPOTS IN HAWAII ARE WETTER !

12.53" and its only June 13th!

More rain that area coming on most models starting today (saturday!!

Its possible that some kinda record gets broken?

Some spots in missouri nearly as wet. But RUSSELL IOWA IS A BULLSEYE!

Also since April 1st Russel Iowa has over 24"!!!!

Just incredible!

westMJim · June 13

With clear skies and calm winds the overnight low and 7AM temperature is 59. Today should be mostly sunny with a high in the low to mid 80’s there is around a 60% chance of showers and maybe a rumble of thunder tonight with a low around 60. Sunday and Monday will be rather cool with highs only in the upper 60’s to the low 70’s. Lows should be in the 50’s. Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday will see a chance of showers with highs in the 70’s and lows in the 50’s.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 76/60 there were 3 Cooling Degree Days, the highest wind gust was 32 MPH out of the W. There was 0.02” of rainfall. Weather events were light rain. For today the average H/L is 78/58 the record high of 95 was is 1894 the coolest high of 59 was in 1955 the record low of 39 was in 1985 the warmest low of 72 was in 1892, the most rainfall of 2.23” was in 2005. Last year the H/L was 73/57.

Some weather history for June 13^th 1889, Forest fires in northern Wisconsin and northeast Minnesota were in the process of destroying millions of dollars of board feet of timber. (David Ludlum) 1987, Fifteen cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including International Falls, MN, with a reading of 92 degrees. Mason City IA and Waterloo IA reported record highs of 100 degrees. Thunderstorms in the northeastern U.S. produced golf ball size hail around Hamilton Square NJ, along with high winds which tore the roof off a hospital causing a million dollars damage. Averill Park NY was deluged with 1.64 inches of rain in fifteen minutes. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) Here in Michigan 1994, A tornado struck Jackson County, producing a 16-mile damage path and injuring 2 people. More than a dozen homes were damaged or destroyed, along with other buildings. 2004, Severe weather struck across the region and a weak tornado touched down briefly in a field one mile northeast of Stanton in Montcalm County.

Clinton · June 13

I'm waking up to thunderstorms again this morning with flooding rains just to my south. Warm and muggy conditions expected this afternoon with an enhanced risk of severe weather. The HRRR is indicating a strong line of storms this evening, but will have to see where boundaries set up to know what type of severe weather I will get.

Black Hole · June 13

Had a few showers this morning and rumbles of thunder, about 0.20". Better chance of more substantial rain/storms overnight tonight.

Tom · June 13

OMA peeps about to get a nice soaker...maybe LNK???

Tom · June 13

CPC Boys are illustrating your long term long wave trough-like pattern centered over the Upper MW and GL's deep into JULY. It does mirror what the JMA weeklies are showing as well. No real Signal for HEAT and Humidity...however, this will keep the NW Flow and active pattern alive.

LOVE the Wet Signal for the 4 corners and the Rockies! Keep it up...

chescowxman · June 13

Several degrees cooler today and much less humid. Highs will still be several degrees above normal levels. Much more humid again tomorrow before a strong cold front crosses the area tomorrow night. We should see temperatures falling back below normal both Monday and Tuesday before we warm up again toward the end of the week. Shower chances increase tomorrow afternoon into the evening with the cold front.

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