June 2026 PNW Weather

[Tanis Leach]

Welcome to June everyone! 

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

This isn’t 2015. It won’t be cool/troughy forever but there’s enough westerly momentum being deposited into the middle latitudes to keep things changeable/quasi-progressive for awhile.

End result is probably a mediocre positive temp departure with frequent ups and downs.

Is this your call for the month of June as a whole?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hopefully I don't gotta post a bunch of NFL players. Maybe some old-school stuff. Variety of warm periods but also some decent troughing at times too.

[Edmonds Husky]

It’s now meteorological summer.

[the_convergence_zone]

Nice to see some June gloom on the menu this year. 

[iFred]

Having an all around good morning.

Was listening to Sunset on the drive to grab some coffee, working through some interview prep in my head. Blue skies in Everett with temps at around 54º.

[ShawniganLake]

Third driest May on record at Victoria YYJ.  Only 2015 and 2018 were drier.  
 

https://cheknews.ca/victoria-records-one-of-its-driest-mays-on-record-as-drought-wildfire-concerns-grow-1327760/

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

22 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Third driest May on record at Victoria YYJ.  Only 2015 and 2018 were drier.  
 

https://cheknews.ca/victoria-records-one-of-its-driest-mays-on-record-as-drought-wildfire-concerns-grow-1327760/

I think that is where we sit too. 

[Edmonds Husky]

1 hour ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Nice to see some June gloom on the menu this year. 

Same. I hope it lasts all month. We need a Juneuary to keep the wildfire threat down. Sorry @SeattleSmokeLayerFan

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Second trough in a week becoming a little more pronounced on ensembles. First half of June might be locked into neg departures. 

[Doom Buster]

7 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I think that is where we sit too. 

Port Angeles recorded .41". Their long term records aren't continuous in one spot, but it's ahead of 2021, 2018, 2016, 2015 for the airport and 10 other years were drier at the old coop location. So not a top 10 dry May for PA, at least.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

10 minutes ago, Doom Buster said:

Port Angeles recorded .41". Their long term records aren't continuous in one spot, but it's ahead of 2021, 2018, 2016, 2015 for the airport and 10 other years were drier at the old coop location. So not a top 10 dry May for PA, at least.

I came in at 0.34", driest since I moved here. And second driest for the local records I have (they only go back to 1996 tho and hand written by previous owner). 2015 was drier at 0.18". But 2021, 2018, 2016 all very close and also in the 0.3s

I only receive about 70% of the precip at the PA airport on average, I'm 12 miles closer to the shadow. 

[iFred]

Summer has been canceled.

[Doom Buster]

16 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I came in at 0.34", driest since I moved here. And second driest for the local records I have (they only go back to 1996 tho and hand written by previous owner). 2015 was drier at 0.18". But 2021, 2018, 2016 all very close and also in the 0.3s

I only receive about 70% of the precip at the PA airport on average, I'm 12 miles closer to the shadow. 

That's cool and kinda wild that you actually have weather records from the previous owner.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

8 minutes ago, Doom Buster said:

That's cool and kinda wild that you actually have weather records from the previous owner.

They are spotty and not in the best condition, but I do have every May. No idea how accurate they are, but interesting to have at least. I found them in the pool house 2 years ago. 

[the_convergence_zone]

1 hour ago, Edmonds Husky said:

Same. I hope it lasts all month. We need a Juneuary to keep the wildfire threat down. Sorry @SeattleSmokeLayerFan

I’ll be long gone and in the land of 70 and sunny every day. Maybe there will be a little marine layer in the morning to remind me of the PNW. For the sake of everyone here I hope it’s cold and rainy to keep the trees happy. 
 

Looking forward to adding tropical fruits and succulents to my gardening repertoire. 

[BLI snowman]

12z GFS looked quite mild and dry for the most part. Our frigid first half of June is hanging by the slightest of threads. 

[Doom Buster]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

12z GFS looked quite mild and dry for the most part. Our frigid first half of June is hanging by the slightest of threads. 

The new king is doubling down.

[LowerGarfield]

Welcome to meteorological summer! 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, Doom Buster said:

The new king is doubling down.

Second trough is gaining traction. Seems like the trend will switch right at 2 weeks, 6/14 to a ridge 

[Edmonds Husky]

4 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Second trough is gaining traction. Seems like the trend will switch right at 2 weeks, 6/14 to a ridge 

Always two weeks away…

Buckle up. Our long awaited Juneuary is coming.

[SeattleSmokeLayerFan]

2 minutes ago, Edmonds Husky said:

Always two weeks away…

Buckle up. Our long awaited Juneuary is coming.

Sick to the stomach.   I'm still betting against this second trough being too crazy.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Edmonds Husky said:

Always two weeks away…

Buckle up. Our long awaited Juneuary is coming.

Its silly to say June will be all troughing or all ridging.   But we usually live on the extreme ends of the spectrum here in this forum.   Likely going to be 10 days of troughing and then probably followed by 10 days of ridging.  

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

4 minutes ago, Edmonds Husky said:

Always two weeks away…

Buckle up. Our long awaited Juneuary is coming.

Except it is climo. We won't trough for long. 

[BLI snowman]

16 minutes ago, Doom Buster said:

The new king is doubling down.

OP 12z Euro remains pretty mild and dry. 

A handful of average to modestly below average days with spotty precip, surrounded on both sides by significant warmth. Seems like the most likely outcome.

[TT-SEA]

Rolling 15-day temps from 12Z ECMWF... other than a couple days later this week it looks pretty decent.   You can tell the days with thicker clouds when we struggle to get into yellow shading.

[Doom Buster]

25 minutes ago, Edmonds Husky said:

Always two weeks away…

Buckle up. Our long awaited Juneuary is coming.

Not unusual, of course, for first half of June to be fairly cool and wet, despite the claims of some that summer begins in late April now.

2024, 2022, 2021...

[Doom Buster]

10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

OP 12z Euro remains pretty mild and dry. 

A handful of average to modestly below average days with spotty precip, surrounded on both sides by significant warmth. Seems like the most likely outcome.

Then you have the CMC and your beloved ICON, which are much closer to Euro AI. 

The fact that you only went +1 for the first half of the month yesterday speaks volumes.

[SeattleSmokeLayerFan]

Watch there be barely any rain. A few showers over the weekend. 70s will resume next week and slowly approach the 80s.

[Doom Buster]

Just got hit by a random severe storm out of nowhere. Looks like it's pounding downtown now. 

Ping pong.

[ShawniganLake]

 

[StormchaserChuck1]

1 hour ago, Doom Buster said:

Just got hit by a random severe storm out of nowhere. Looks like it's pounding downtown now. 

Ping pong.

Nice!

[BLI snowman]

2 hours ago, Doom Buster said:

Then you have the CMC and your beloved ICON, which are much closer to Euro AI. 

The fact that you only went +1 for the first half of the month yesterday speaks volumes.

Nice!

If you want to bet against the Euro and modern warm season climo then do so at your own peril. 

At least+1 to 1.5 for the first half of the month. Back half is likely warmer relative to average.

Seems worm. 

[BLI snowman]

57 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

 

4-5 whole days without significant warm departures could be huge. 

[TT-SEA]

28 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

4-5 whole days without significant warm departures could be huge. 

Second half of May was colder than normal in the Seattle area.   And now another week of below normal coming up.   I think we are going to be DUE for a big warm up by late next week!   

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Second half of May was colder than normal in the Seattle area.   And now another week of below normal coming up.   I think we are going to be DUE for a big warm up by late next week!   

It wasn't abnormal in the slightest. Maybe a degree or two below a more curved, warming trendline. But 2026 wouldn't even stick out in the slightest if you weren't looking for it, barring it being the very latest datapoint.

You remind me a lot of myself from earlier this winter and last winter when I was freaking out over uninterrupted warm Pacific air. I was getting mad at our climatology. It seems that unless we have a definitively warm season or month, you enter crisis mode. They say in Seattle, summer begins July 5th. Given the medium and long range trends, that's probably going to be more true than not this year as well. It happened in 2022, 2020, and much, much more so 2012 and earlier. You've had it so "good", you've been spoiled into forgetting what normal summer used to be like. I'm sure you remember what it used to be like when you first moved here!

In a similar vein, 2016-2022 made me forget just how rotten our winters can get. We'll get another large arctic event eventually. Just as July and August will come and deliver proper heat, maybe as early as the second half of June. This is the way it works here, being right on the coast of the coldest ocean at this latitude, north of the meridian line, directly downstream of the Gulf of Alaska.

[TT-SEA]

28 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It wasn't abnormal in the slightest. Maybe a degree or two below a more curved, warming trendline. But 2026 wouldn't even stick out in the slightest if you weren't looking for it, barring it being the very latest datapoint.

You remind me a lot of myself from earlier this winter and last winter when I was freaking out over uninterrupted warm Pacific air. I was getting mad at our climatology. It seems that unless we have a definitively warm season or month, you enter crisis mode. They say in Seattle, summer begins July 5th. Given the medium and long range trends, that's probably going to be more true than not this year as well. It happened in 2022, 2020, and much, much more so 2012 and earlier. You've had it so "good", you've been spoiled into forgetting what normal summer used to be like. I'm sure you remember what it used to be like when you first moved here!

In a similar vein, 2016-2022 made me forget just how rotten our winters can get. We'll get another large arctic event eventually. Just as July and August will come and deliver proper heat, maybe as early as the second half of June. This is the way it works here, being right on the coast of the coldest ocean at this latitude, north of the meridian line, directly downstream of the Gulf of Alaska.

Dude... second half of May was below normal.   Look up the F6 data.  And crisis mode??   I am barely paying attention.  We have had more than enough sunny days to keep me happy.  Getting into a model debate with the trolls is mostly for entertainment and I was arguing in favor of staying cool.  When we first moved here we had nice summers... 2003-2007.  Then 2008, 2010, and 2011 happened.   And its been nice since.   I don't give 2 sh*ts what the weather was like in the 1990s or 1950s if you want to call that our "normal" summer or if people on here are craving whatever they had when they were kids.  I can go way back and find nice summers in the 1800s and early 1900s.  We all get stuck in nostalgia for many things from our childhood. But climate (like society) is ever evolving with different regimes and longer term cycles.   Nothing stays the same.   And we aren't stuck here.  If nature decides to give us nothing but 1954 summers then we can easily leave.

[the_convergence_zone]

When’s the last time we had a truly warm first half of June? 2019? And that one balanced with a cool second half. 

Edited June 1 by the_convergence_zone

[TT-SEA]

Just now, the_convergence_zone said:

When’s the last time we had a truly warm first half of June? 2019? And that one balanced with a cool second half. 

There is always a week to 10 days in June that are crappy... and its usually centered around mid-month.   We might be getting it out of the way earlier than usual this year.  

[the_convergence_zone]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

There is always a week to 10 days in June that are crappy... and it’s usually centered around mid-month.   We might be getting it out of the way earlier than usual this year.  

You definitely get the worst of the late spring onshore flow regime. I don’t see a single day that looks crappy in Seattle in the 10-day forecast. Rain looks to be timed overnight Friday and Seattle will be mostly shadowed the rest of the time.