June 2026 PNW Weather

[Tanis Leach]

So this Sunday, I ran the Newport Marathon, placing 2nd with a 2:37:42.3. 

Excellent weather. 47 at the start. Wind picked up after the finish so those behind me got a headwind coming back. 

[Deweydog]

525!

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

525!

Ho hum... another walk off.

[High Desert Mat!]

19 days til the nights start to get longer. 

[SeattleSmokeLayerFan]

All the models are slowly pushing towards a Euro like solution. Except the CLOWN AI GFS. Which not only doubles down on the second trough, but brings a third one in in the long range.

Luckily, no one takes the AI GFS operational run seriously.

[Meatyorologist]

11 minutes ago, Tanis Leach said:

So this Sunday, I ran the Newport Marathon, placing 2nd with a 2:37:42.3. 

Excellent weather. 47 at the start. Wind picked up after the finish so those behind me got a headwind coming back. 

I drove by that sign in October! Looks a lot sunnier today than it was then

[Meatyorologist]

I'm not liking how shadowed we're going to be in Seattle. Some earlier runs were indicating more low development and upscale precip, but I think we're going to have to wait it out in Seattle until the CZ moves through in the wake of the trough's axis. The next trough is still very much in the air as to whether it will be good for rainfall or not.

[Meatyorologist]

Saturday is going to bring a nice late season cold core lightning risk. IDK if we'll have enough shear for it, but the environment being advertised across most guidance would support a CZ squall if we time the trough's passage right

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 hour ago, Tanis Leach said:

So this Sunday, I ran the Newport Marathon, placing 2nd with a 2:37:42.3. 

Excellent weather. 47 at the start. Wind picked up after the finish so those behind me got a headwind coming back. 

That’s an insane time. Congratulations 

[DeepFriedEgg]

6 hours ago, Tanis Leach said:

So this Sunday, I ran the Newport Marathon, placing 2nd with a 2:37:42.3. 

Excellent weather. 47 at the start. Wind picked up after the finish so those behind me got a headwind coming back. 

That’s crazy fast

[Doom Buster]

The 0z Euro and Euro AI were both quite a bit troughier in the 7-10 day period. But then 6z Euro AI has pulled back again. Models still figuring out what to do with energy cutting off from first main ULL. No clear signal yet any sort of strong or extended west coast ridging emerging within 10 days.

[Groundhog]

10 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

They have some of the most extreme seasonal lag you'll ever see south of the actual arctic due to being so influenced by the sea ice. Their March average is over 2 degrees colder than their December average and their September average is over 4 degrees warmer than their June average.

It’s all about the ocean currents. Same current that caused Titanic’s demise. Yes, the lag is otherworldly. This produces beautiful boreal forests at the same latitude as the PNW. From the webcams, it’s just greening up—as it is here at 6,500ft elevation. They’re a hardy, lovely people. 

[Phil]

On 6/1/2026 at 6:25 AM, Meatyorologist said:

Is this your call for the month of June as a whole?

Yes. Even taking into account any post jet-extension heat spike.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

 

2 hours ago, Doom Buster said:

The 0z Euro and Euro AI were both quite a bit troughier in the 7-10 day period. But then 6z Euro AI has pulled back again. Models still figuring out what to do with energy cutting off from first main ULL. No clear signal yet any sort of strong or extended west coast ridging emerging within 10 days.

Pretty strong signal across all guidance at D 12+ for a few warm days. GEFS the outlier. 

 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

 

Pretty strong signal across all guidance at D 12+ for a few warm days. GEFS the outlier. 

 

Probably going to be an even split June; switch to warm at the 2 week mark. I'm cool with that. Hope we pile on rain this weekend.

[fubario]

14 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

I don't know what to tell you, other than that May isn't supposed to be a wall-to-wall sunfest with July like rain totals. These troughy interludes are totally normal for this time of year. Not to mention that there still has been plenty of sun even with our cooler days, and May finished both warmer and drier than our new 1991-2020 normals.

And, not that I'm in any position to lecture anyone here about "not freaking out", but dude, you genuinely sound really upset. Which is interesting considering this spring has been better than normal for your standards. I don't know how to come to any conclusion other than that the 2013-present warm period has totally skewed your expectations of what to see from April-October.

Mariners fans? lol

[ShawniganLake]

[Doom Buster]

32 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

 

Pretty strong signal across all guidance at D 12+ for a few warm days. GEFS the outlier. 

 

Yeah, but still a ways out there. I did notice the latest AIFS ensemble mean moves the higher heights a little more offshore. It will almost certainly be a warmer period than the next 8-10 days, but how warm is the question.

 

[SeattleSmokeLayerFan]

16 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Looking WARM.  

[TT-SEA]

14 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

I don't know how to come to any conclusion other than that the 2013-present warm period has totally skewed your expectations of what to see from April-October.

At what point do we say the warm skewed expectations are basically reality now and people clinging to the old climate regime are actually the ones with skewed expectations based on something that once existed but does not anymore. 

[ShawniganLake]

Today will be the 7th 80F+ day at Nanaimo YCD.  I’ll have to check some other recent warm summers but 2015 had 0 at this point in the season.  

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

39 minutes ago, Doom Buster said:

Yeah, but still a ways out there. I did notice the latest AIFS ensemble mean moves the higher heights a little more offshore. It will almost certainly be a warmer period than the next 8-10 days, but how warm is the question.

 

I don't think hot, but warm for sure. Goldilocks weather as someone would say. 

[BLI snowman]

23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

At what point do we say the warm skewed expectations are basically reality now and people clinging to the old climate regime are actually the ones with skewed expectations based on something that once existed but does not anymore. 

Hmm, I actually think most of us are already there and have been for a few years now. 2021-2023 was the final turning point for me. Three Niña years in a row and instead of a 1954-57, 1974-76, 1999-2001, or 2010-2012 style summer stretch we saw three record hot summers, including our worst heatwave ever by many leaps and bounds. It was very obvious at that point that our pre-2013 climo was not coming back. 

I do see habitual consternation from some (including in this very thread) when it gets pointed out that significantly warm + dry outcomes are overwhelmingly favored on a monthly basis no matter what in the warm season, and that there's really not a lot of "nuance" to that. Transient troughing episodes like this weekend won't make a big dent in that and sure enough more warm weather looks very quick to follow.

It's definitely odd to still see pushback against that after so many extremely warm years, but here we are.... 

[Meatyorologist]

34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

At what point do we say the warm skewed expectations are basically reality now and people clinging to the old climate regime are actually the ones with skewed expectations based on something that once existed but does not anymore. 

The way I see it, you're getting more and more of the weather you ask for, so there's no need for the daily angst you keep denying

[the_convergence_zone]

8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Hmm, I actually think most of us are already there and have been for a few years now. 2021-2023 was the final turning point for me. Three Niña years in a row and instead of a 1954-57, 1974-76, 1999-2001, or 2010-2012 style summer stretch we saw three record hot summers, including our worst heatwave ever by many leaps and bounds. It was very obvious at that point that our pre-2013 climo was not coming back. 

I do see habitual consternation from some (including in this very thread) when it gets pointed out that significantly warm + dry outcomes are overwhelmingly favored on a monthly basis no matter what in the warm season, and that there's really not a lot of "nuance" to that. Transient troughing episodes like this weekend won't make a big dent in that and sure enough more warm weather looks very quick to follow.

It's definitely odd to still see pushback against that after so many extremely warm years, but here we are.... 

Most of the debates here center on whether the most recent weeks/month/year is top 1/5/10 warmest. 

If we get something that is near or below 1991-2020 climo it’s cause for celebration among the cold fans. 

In 5 years climo will reset again and we’ll have a new, higher baseline to compare with. 

[the_convergence_zone]

7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The way I see it, you're getting more and more of the weather you ask for, so there's no need for the daily angst you keep denying

I always remind myself that North Bend’s climo is significantly cloudier and wetter than KSEA It’s like double the rainfall and at least 50% more clouds. Only the occasional easterly winds break that trend. If I lived in the middle of a rainforest I’d probably be desperate for sun as well. 
 

And late spring in particular is when KSEA is far, far sunnier. 

Edited June 2 by the_convergence_zone

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The way I see it, you're getting more and more of the weather you ask for, so there's no need for the daily angst you keep denying

That is the problem... there is no angst.   I said May was spectacular and its been nice since the end of March.  

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Most of the debates here center on whether the most recent weeks/month/year is top 1/5/10 warmest. 

If we get something that is near or below 1991-2020 climo it’s cause for celebration among the cold fans. 

In 5 years climo will reset again and we’ll have a new, higher baseline to compare with. 

The problem is that our warming accelerated so fast in this past decade that those 1991-2020 averages became antiquated shockingly quickly. 

So it's a question of whether that rate of warming continues or does it start to slow down just a tad to where the 2001-30 baseline looks a little more fitting to our present day climo as we progress through the '30s. 

[Doom Buster]

28 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Today will be the 7th 80F+ day at Nanaimo YCD.  I’ll have to check some other recent warm summers but 2015 had 0 at this point in the season.  

From 5/15 to 6/15 in 2015, SEA had 21 70+ days and 8 80+ days.

This year, they're at 5 70+ days and one 80+ day...very unlikely they come close to those numbers from 2015.

[Meatyorologist]

11 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Hmm, I actually think most of us are already there and have been for a few years now. 2021-2023 was the final turning point for me. Three Niña years in a row and instead of a 1954-57, 1974-76, 1999-2001, or 2010-2012 style summer stretch we saw three record hot summers, including our worst heatwave ever by many leaps and bounds. It was very obvious at that point that our pre-2013 climo was not coming back. 

I do see habitual consternation from some (including in this very thread) when it gets pointed out that significantly warm + dry outcomes are overwhelmingly favored on a monthly basis no matter what in the warm season, and that there's really not a lot of "nuance" to that. Transient troughing episodes like this weekend won't make a big dent in that and sure enough more warm weather looks very quick to follow.

It's definitely odd to still see pushback against that after so many extremely warm years, but here we are.... 

The soft denialism behind thinly veiled bad faith logic and constant trolling is growing really old. It wouldn't be hyping anything up to admit that, yeah, we're seeing warmer and warmer weather outside of February, without any weird asterisks to force down some supposed strawman "AGW hypebeast" angle that only exists on mainstream tabloids and twitter reply sections.

I mean I enjoy the warm days as much as Tim. I have to if I want to enjoy the outdoors in a warming climate. Besides, even our hottest weather is a cakewalk comapred to a cool summer in St Louis, so it's not exactly a challenge to bask in our dry 85F sunshine.

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, Doom Buster said:

From 5/15 to 6/15 in 2015, SEA had 21 70+ days and 8 80+ days.

This year, they're at 5 70+ days and one 80+ day...very unlikely they come close to those numbers from 2015.

I think they broke SEA when they corrected the sensor after running way warm for years.  

[Doom Buster]

27 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Hmm, I actually think most of us are already there and have been for a few years now. 2021-2023 was the final turning point for me. Three Niña years in a row and instead of a 1954-57, 1974-76, 1999-2001, or 2010-2012 style summer stretch we saw three record hot summers, including our worst heatwave ever by many leaps and bounds. It was very obvious at that point that our pre-2013 climo was not coming back. 

I do see habitual consternation from some (including in this very thread) when it gets pointed out that significantly warm + dry outcomes are overwhelmingly favored on a monthly basis no matter what in the warm season, and that there's really not a lot of "nuance" to that. Transient troughing episodes like this weekend won't make a big dent in that and sure enough more warm weather looks very quick to follow.

It's definitely odd to still see pushback against that after so many extremely warm years, but here we are.... 

Problem is that once you had your little epiphany after 2023, you started going overboard and all in on heat/dryness every warm season. To the point that almost all of your predictions have busted on the warm side.

Again, very similar to how you went all in on the demise of lowland snowfall after 2007-08.

There is a happy medium where one can accept reality but also realize that this doesn't mean the most recent trends are just bound to keep accelerating, other cycles and factors be d*mned.

[Doom Buster]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I think they broke SEA when they corrected the sensor after running way warm for years.  

I don't think it ran way warm, it's just the anomalies during the 2010s were exaggerated due to more UHI compared to previous decades.

The nice thing is we can look at a station like OLM in the same region and not see the weird decadal aberrations for anomalies since they haven't had much land use change around them over their history.

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, Doom Buster said:

Problem is that once you had your little epiphany after 2023, you started going overboard and all in on heat/dryness every warm season. Again, very similar to how you went all in on the demise of lowland snowfall after 2007-08.

There is a happy medium where one can accept reality but also realize that this doesn't mean the most recent trends are just bound to keep accelerating, other cycles and factors be d*mned.

Accepting reality has been the difficult part for some.

Especially when comments remarking upon the recent vomit trail of extreme summer warmth are immediately followed with retorts like "Yeah but OLM was 0.1 degree below its historic average in May 2024!!!1". 

[ShawniganLake]

16 minutes ago, Doom Buster said:

From 5/15 to 6/15 in 2015, SEA had 21 70+ days and 8 80+ days.

This year, they're at 5 70+ days and one 80+ day...very unlikely they come close to those numbers from 2015.

Okay I was maybe joking a bit about the sensor but I do remember some sensor adjustment at SEA awhile back.  I could be dreaming though. 
 

The disparity between here and Seattle has been unusual in recent weeks as Seattle is generally a slightly warmer climate.  Without ignoring the early May warmth.  Nanaimo has had 22 days of 20C+ so far this season.  Their average is probably 12 or 13.  The 1981-2010 average was between 10 and 11.  

[DareDuck]

8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Accepting reality has been the difficult part for some.

Especially when comments remarking upon the recent vomit trail of extreme summer warmth are immediately followed with retorts like "Yeah but OLM was 0.1 degree below its historic average in May 2024!!!1". 

Just did it 20 minutes ago. We get a stat about Nanaimo and immediately. “Yea but SEA…”

[the_convergence_zone]

26 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The problem is that our warming accelerated so fast in this past decade that those 1991-2020 averages became antiquated shockingly quickly. 

So it's a question of whether that rate of warming continues or does it start to slow down just a tad to where the 2001-30 baseline looks a little more fitting to our present day climo as we progress through the '30s. 

There are so many subtleties to our regional climate which unfortunately gives fuel to the statistic cherry pickers. 

The warming is highly asymmetrical on a seasonal scale with summer warming being dominant and wet season warming being more subtle and generally felt more in terms of low-to-middle elevation snowpack. 

Then you have the Columbia river project which continues to keep irrigated areas several degrees cooler in summer than they would be if they were compared directly to pre-1950s climate. 

Plus all of the decadal and  multi-decadal ocean current variability which Phil is constantly hammering us about. 

Oh—and lots of new research indicating a direct connection between the warming Pacific Ocean and western US heatwaves via latent heat release in atmospheric rivers. A new study on the connection with the 2021 heatwave just came out: https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/cw3e-publication-notice-the-role-of-an-atmospheric-river-in-amplifying-the-june-2021-western-north-american-heat-wave/

[Meatyorologist]

11 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

There are so many subtleties to our regional climate which unfortunately gives fuel to the statistic cherry pickers. 

The warming is highly asymmetrical on a seasonal scale with summer warming being dominant and wet season warming being more subtle and generally felt more in terms of low-to-middle elevation snowpack. 

Then you have the Columbia river project which continues to keep irrigated areas several degrees cooler in summer than they would be if they were compared directly to pre-1950s climate. 

Plus all of the decadal and  multi-decadal ocean current variability which Phil is constantly hammering us about. 

Oh—and lots of new research indicating a direct connection between the warming Pacific Ocean and western US heatwaves via latent heat release in atmospheric rivers. A new study on the connection with the 2021 heatwave just came out: https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/cw3e-publication-notice-the-role-of-an-atmospheric-river-in-amplifying-the-june-2021-western-north-american-heat-wave/

Daniel Swain had some pretty good insight into how an atmospheric river over Washington state influenced the record breaking ridge over the desert SW back in March

[iFred]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

The soft denialism behind thinly veiled bad faith logic and constant trolling is growing really old. It wouldn't be hyping anything up to admit that, yeah, we're seeing warmer and warmer weather outside of February, without any weird asterisks to force down some supposed strawman "AGW hypebeast" angle that only exists on mainstream tabloids and twitter reply sections.

I mean I enjoy the warm days as much as Tim. I have to if I want to enjoy the outdoors in a warming climate. Besides, even our hottest weather is a cakewalk comapred to a cool summer in St Louis, so it's not exactly a challenge to bask in our dry 85F sunshine.

Well you see, everyone loves warmer climates and its actually good for the plants.

Now if you will excuse me, I am on my way to go ignite some methane hydrates and test their ignition point at 9600ft below sea level.

[Omegaraptor]

48 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Daniel Swain had some pretty good insight into how an atmospheric river over Washington state influenced the record breaking ridge over the desert SW back in March

The upper level pattern we saw for much of December 2025 was essentially identical to the March SW heat dome pattern. Very different results on the ground though. Massive PNW blowtorch while the Central Valley in CA was trapped under an extended tule fog inversion in December. By March, inversion season is long gone and North Pacific SSTs are at their annual nadir.