June 2026 PNW Weather

[MossMan]

15 hours ago, MossMan said:

Thinking I might need to take tomorrow off before winter returns. 

Stunning day. 

[iFred]

[Doom Buster]

2 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Accepting reality has been the difficult part for some.

Especially when comments remarking upon the recent vomit trail of extreme summer warmth are immediately followed with retorts like "Yeah but OLM was 0.1 degree below its historic average in May 2024!!!1". 

Context of the discussion. The OLM stat isn't meant to discount the obvious warming that's occurred, and you know it.

But if one is just spouting PDX stats and records in reference to regional warming, that can be a bit misleading.

[Doom Buster]

2 hours ago, DareDuck said:

Just did it 20 minutes ago. We get a stat about Nanaimo and immediately. “Yea but SEA…”

Again..context. The discussion has been about comparisons to 2015 with Shawnigan. 

And do you think Nanaimo is more relevant to most folks here than SEA?

Also - why is Shawnigan choosing to post Nainamo stats rather than Shawnigan Lake stats? 

[Edmonds Husky]

4 hours ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Probably going to be an even split June; switch to warm at the 2 week mark. I'm cool with that. Hope we pile on rain this weekend.

I think the PNW will be wet but I think Seattle may be spared from most of the rain due to shadowing

[Doom Buster]

1 hour ago, the_convergence_zone said:

There are so many subtleties to our regional climate which unfortunately gives fuel to the statistic cherry pickers. 

The warming is highly asymmetrical on a seasonal scale with summer warming being dominant and wet season warming being more subtle and generally felt more in terms of low-to-middle elevation snowpack. 

Then you have the Columbia river project which continues to keep irrigated areas several degrees cooler in summer than they would be if they were compared directly to pre-1950s climate. 

Plus all of the decadal and  multi-decadal ocean current variability which Phil is constantly hammering us about. 

Oh—and lots of new research indicating a direct connection between the warming Pacific Ocean and western US heatwaves via latent heat release in atmospheric rivers. A new study on the connection with the 2021 heatwave just came out: https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/cw3e-publication-notice-the-role-of-an-atmospheric-river-in-amplifying-the-june-2021-western-north-american-heat-wave/

And you didn't even mention city vs rural UHI impacts. The warming is clear and obvious, but the "subtleties" as you say also make it complicated.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, the_convergence_zone said:

There are so many subtleties to our regional climate which unfortunately gives fuel to the statistic cherry pickers. 

The warming is highly asymmetrical on a seasonal scale with summer warming being dominant and wet season warming being more subtle and generally felt more in terms of low-to-middle elevation snowpack. 

Then you have the Columbia river project which continues to keep irrigated areas several degrees cooler in summer than they would be if they were compared directly to pre-1950s climate. 

Plus all of the decadal and  multi-decadal ocean current variability which Phil is constantly hammering us about. 

Oh—and lots of new research indicating a direct connection between the warming Pacific Ocean and western US heatwaves via latent heat release in atmospheric rivers. A new study on the connection with the 2021 heatwave just came out: https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/cw3e-publication-notice-the-role-of-an-atmospheric-river-in-amplifying-the-june-2021-western-north-american-heat-wave/

The 2021 heatwave was caused by a trapped wavenumber 8 pattern under a broad z-cell mean state augmented subseasonally.

I doubt it had much to do with latent heat release or atmospheric rivers. Not really a clear mechanism there outside theories simulated in tuned climate models.

[Phil]

15 minutes ago, Doom Buster said:

Again..context. The discussion has been about comparisons to 2015 with Shawnigan. 

And do you think Nanaimo is more relevant to most folks here than SEA?

Also - why is Shawnigan choosing to post Nainamo stats rather than Shawnigan Lake stats? 

I was going to ask that.

[High Desert Mat!]

I sometimes go days without looking at this site in the warmer season. Just curious, is Flatiron still here or did I miss something?

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, High Desert Mat! said:

I sometimes go days without looking at this site in the warmer season. Just curious, is Flatiron still here or did I miss something?

Changed his name... Doom Buster! 

[Doom Buster]

12z Euro AI has 3 separate troughs in succession, though the last is pretty weak.

 

Beyond day 10, ensemble mean continues to point to ridging moving in.

[ShawniganLake]

46 minutes ago, Doom Buster said:

Again..context. The discussion has been about comparisons to 2015 with Shawnigan. 

And do you think Nanaimo is more relevant to most folks here than SEA?

Also - why is Shawnigan choosing to post Nainamo stats rather than Shawnigan Lake stats? 

Shawnigan Lake had official numbers since  the early 1910s but unfortunately it stopped reporting in November 2023.  Wouldn’t really be fair to compare my own station to Shawnigan Lakes numbers because my back yard historically has run warmer than the official numbers.  I mean I could but it would skew even more warm than it has been.  I could use Victoria YYJ but it’s surrounded by water on 3 sides so Nanaimo and North Cowichan tend to be more representative of the weather at Shawnigan Lake.  

[the_convergence_zone]

44 minutes ago, Phil said:

The 2021 heatwave was caused by a trapped wavenumber 8 pattern under a broad z-cell mean state augmented subseasonally.

I doubt it had much to do with latent heat release or atmospheric rivers. Not really a clear mechanism there outside theories simulated in tuned climate models.

You’re clearly not up to date on the latest literature. 

[ShawniganLake]

37 minutes ago, Phil said:

I was going to ask that.

I think environment Canada has been cutting back on some of the rural stations. Shawnigan Lake station is likely gone for good.  

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Doom Buster said:

Context of the discussion. The OLM stat isn't meant to discount the obvious warming that's occurred, and you know it.

But if one is just spouting PDX stats and records in reference to regional warming, that can be a bit misleading.

If you're so worried about regional numbers then why do you never utilize or make reference to NOAA's climate database that exists for that exact purpose? You can pull statewide or regional rankings anytime on there. 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/

There's plenty of regional data there to go around.

Highlighting one specific inconsequential data point as a counterpoint under the guise of it being about "providing a regional context" simply comes across as contrarian oriented cherry-picking, at best. Should be kind of obvious. 

[Doom Buster]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

If you're so worried about regional numbers then why do you never utilize or make reference to NOAA's climate database that exists for that exact purpose? You can pull statewide or regional rankings anytime on there. 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/

There's plenty of regional data there to go around.

Highlighting one specific inconsequential data point as a counterpoint under the guise of it being about "providing a regional context" simply comes across as contrarian oriented cherry-picking, at best. Should be kind of obvious. 

Again, context. When I point to OLM's numbers, it's often after you used PDX, with specific data points you chose. It's not a counterpoint to regional warming numbers, it's a counterpoint to just using PDX as a gauge.

And I've explained many times why OLM's long term records are better than PDX or SEA for comparing to historical benchmarks, records, etc. If that's cherry picking, go ahead and show me a better long term non-UHI influenced station to use.

[Doom Buster]

15 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I think environment Canada has been cutting back on some of the rural stations. Shawnigan Lake station is likely gone for good.  

Thanks, Trump!

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

The 2021 heatwave was caused by a trapped wavenumber 8 pattern under a broad z-cell mean state augmented subseasonally.

I doubt it had much to do with latent heat release or atmospheric rivers. Not really a clear mechanism there outside theories simulated in tuned climate models.

The low amplitude ridge which was pinched off into what is known today as the June 2021 heatwave, was strengthened and preceded by a stout, highly anomalous atmospheric river. KSEA saw nearly 2" of rain in 36 hours with highs in the 50's. It's actually funny that you missed this fact, considering the heatwave was one of the most well documented and well researched weather events in history.

[MossMan]

This one’s for Jesse. 

[Meatyorologist]

KSEA up to 82F at the 2pm update. Ties the yearly high temp and is 10F ahead of yesterday's pace.

[DareDuck]

1 hour ago, Doom Buster said:

Again..context. The discussion has been about comparisons to 2015 with Shawnigan. 

And do you think Nanaimo is more relevant to most folks here than SEA?

Also - why is Shawnigan choosing to post Nainamo stats rather than Shawnigan Lake stats? 

No one asked for a Seattle 2015 comparison. This is what you do here, some says “XYZ” occurred and you go well “SEA/OLM refute that”. And no this is a PNW forum so we don’t just pick the population center. It may be relevant to people’s perception, but not the climate and overall weather pattern. If SEA runs -2 but 80%’of the PNW is above average; I wouldn’t try to argue that it wasn’t a warm month regionally because SEA wasn’t. 

[Doom Buster]

6 minutes ago, DareDuck said:

No one asked for a Seattle 2015 comparison. This is what you do here, some says “XYZ” occurred and you go well “SEA/OLM refute that”. And no this is a PNW forum so we don’t just pick the population center. It may be relevant to people’s perception, but not the climate and overall weather pattern. If SEA runs -2 but 80%’of the PNW is above average; I wouldn’t try to argue that it wasn’t a warm month regionally because SEA wasn’t. 

1. Did anyone ask for stats comparing this year to 2015 in Nanaimo? No...that's just what we do here.

2. Again, I'm sorry if you missed it but Shawnigan and I had several exchanges before comparing this spring to 2015. Bringing Seattle's 2015 comparison stats in wasn't out of the blue.

3. Just because someone adds stats from another location does not mean they are "refuting" someone else's stats. More stats is more info, it's not like they invalidate each other.

[TT-SEA]

Very average spring in Seattle.

[Doom Buster]

15 minutes ago, MossMan said:

This one’s for Jesse. 

RIP..

Was he a leg guy? At least your feet are covered up.

[Meatyorologist]

2 hours ago, iFred said:

Well you see, everyone loves warmer climates and its actually good for the plants.

Now if you will excuse me, I am on my way to go ignite some methane hydrates and test their ignition point at 9600ft below sea level.

@Deweydog Could Fred claim self defense against the globalist elite if he fired the clathrate gun? I need a lawyer's opinion

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Very average spring in Seattle.

Except the snow. 

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Very average spring in Seattle.

Fantastic growing spring down here.

[Meatyorologist]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Very average spring in Seattle.

That's a fair assessment. Niña-like March, warm leaning back-and-forth April/May

[T-Town]

17 minutes ago, Doom Buster said:

RIP..

Was he a leg guy? At least your feet are covered up.

Gotta leave a little something for the imagination. 

[Meatyorologist]

13 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Gotta leave a little something for the imagination. 

We've already lost Mass' approval. I don't think this forum can afford to get on Tarantino's bad side as well

[T-Town]

9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

We've already lost Mass' approval. I don't think this forum can afford to get on Tarantino's bad side as well

Love Tarantino but not getting the reference. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

We have done it. First burger of the season!

[Doom Buster]

6 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

At what point do we say the warm skewed expectations are basically reality now and people clinging to the old climate regime are actually the ones with skewed expectations based on something that once existed but does not anymore. 

 

43 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

That's a fair assessment. Niña-like March, warm leaning back-and-forth April/May

And this gets back to Tim's point. Was it "average" compared to springs of the cold war era? No...as we all know the climate has changed some since then. But it was average by modern climate standards, the last 30 years.

[Doom Buster]

Trend today towards giving OR a direct hit with the second and/or third trough of the month. 

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Doom Buster said:

Again, context. When I point to OLM's numbers, it's often after you used PDX, with specific data points you chose. It's not a counterpoint to regional warming numbers, it's a counterpoint to just using PDX as a gauge.

And I've explained many times why OLM's long term records are better than PDX or SEA for comparing to historical benchmarks, records, etc. If that's cherry picking, go ahead and show me a better long term non-UHI influenced station to use.

You don't look at NOAA because of "context"? I'd expect a little more curiosity on those numbers from someone who claims the title as Holy Gatekeeper of PNW Regional Weather Statistical Clarity™ 

For example, you'll recall that there was some question last year over whether 2025 represented a meaningful "break" from recent summer norms or not.

Here are Oregon's 10 warmest summers. 2025 tied for 4th

Here are Washington's 10 warmest summers. 2025 is riding solo in 4th

Also note the plethora of 2020s years on both lists. Very regional.

[StormchaserChuck1]

10 minutes ago, Doom Buster said:

 

And this gets back to Tim's point. Was it "average" compared to springs of the cold war era? No...as we all know the climate has changed some since then. But it was average by modern climate standards, the last 30 years.

What's your point? That we should expect a slow down in global warming? 

[StormchaserChuck1]

PNW weather is warming drastically compared to decadal PDO and ENSO patterns. More than any other region in the US, besides the SW. 

[StormchaserChuck1]

I'd be willing to bet on a big +departure for Seattle July - September. Anyone want to bet? Over/under is +2.0-2.5 vs 91-20. 

[Doom Buster]

9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

You don't look at NOAA because of "context"? I'd expect a little more curiosity on those numbers from someone who claims the title as Holy Gatekeeper of PNW Regional Weather Statistical Clarity™ 

For example, you'll recall that there was some question last year over whether 2025 represented a meaningful "break" from recent summer norms or not.

Here are Oregon's 10 warmest summers. 2025 tied for 4th

Here are Washington's 10 warmest summers. 2025 is riding solo in 4th

Also note the plethora of 2020s years on both lists. Very regional.

Ah, you choose to go SUPER regional when it fits your point.

As you well know, my points about last summer pertained to the lowlands of the western PNW...you know, Seattle, Portland, etc. That climate region. 

Here's where the summer ranked for the major westside stations. As you can see, most were not close to 4th warmest.

BLI: 12th

SEA: 14th

OLM: 11th

PDX: 7th

SLE: 6th

EUG: 3rd

 

 

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

That's a fair assessment. Niña-like March, warm leaning back-and-forth April/May

And definitely less true elsewhere in the region. To Dare Duck's point earlier, in no way is SEA singularly representative of the region, and in this spring's case it's pretty obvious that it is not accurate to characterize it as "average" for the region for temperatures under any context. It was another warm to very warm season.

For PDX, it was the 5th warmest spring on record (since 1941). It came in +1.4 on the regression line and +2.1 on the 30 year moving average. 

 

Fairly similar story for OLM, SLE, EUG, MFR, GEG, YKM, PDT, RDM etc. though the rankings obviously depend somewhat on the length of the period of record.