June 2026 PNW Weather

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Hope the rain pans out. OP runs are teasing decent heat. 

Uh oh…rained pretty decent before June 2021

[SeattleSmokeLayerFan]

9 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Hope the rain pans out. OP runs are teasing decent heat. 

Pass on the rain (except Saturday's thunderstorms). I do think the ensemble signal is really strong and keeps getting stronger. The cold trough people are in denial. 

The current progressive westerly momentum will slow down... which will help the heat establish for a longer duration than say... yesterday. But it won't last terribly long as the jet is expected to retract which will retrograde and probably bring back some troughing (thunderstorms )

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Probly another heat dome. Preceding what will be oppressive heat at times through the summer. Hopefully not too many Benjamins.

[Snowfan]

4 hours ago, iFred said:

Interview went well. Thank you to everyone who used their winter manifestation energy and sent the vibes my way. The engineer seemed to be impressed by physic prowess that some of you possess.

so now the final interview round is on Wednesday, and if that goes well, I’ll be employed!

Good Luck! I got my fingers crossed for you. I finally am getting an interviewing for something more appropriate for my skill sets. I am glad the job market may finally be improving! 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

42 minutes ago, KeyPeninsula_Wx said:

Uh oh…rained pretty decent before June 2021

lol. This isn’t 2021. But I am pretty confident 6/13-6/15 will be our hottest time of the year so far. Probably a 90 burger or two in places. 

[GHweatherChris]

3 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

lol. This isn’t 2021. But I am pretty confident 6/13-6/15 will be our hottest time of the year so far. Probably a 90 burger or two in places. 

Lol, noone expected what happened in 2021 so.............. ya, you never know anymore.

[SeattleSmokeLayerFan]

8 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

lol. This isn’t 2021. But I am pretty confident 6/13-6/15 will be our hottest time of the year so far. Probably a 90 burger or two in places. 

Parts of King County already got their 90 burger yesterday. This upcoming one should deliver more widespread 90s.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

5 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Lol, noone expected what happened in 2021 so.............. ya, you never know anymore.

We don’t have any runs showing 2021 heat. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, SeattleSmokeLayerFan said:

Parts of King County already got their 90 burger yesterday. This upcoming one should deliver more widespread 90s.

Seems likely. 

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

We don’t have any runs showing 2021 heat. 

Not yet lol, not saying I think it will happen this summer, but knowing that it can happen now, there will always be a chance.  

[Phishy Wx]

I'll take it, not bad for the east side in June

 

 

[Chewbacca Defense]

4 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

did you mention to them that you're the Forum Admin of The Weather Forums?

I was gonna say preschool teacher/zoo keeper.....but yeah, I guess "Forum Admin of The Weather Forums" works too....

[TigerWoodsLibido]

5 hours ago, iFred said:

Interview went well. Thank you to everyone who used their winter manifestation energy and sent the vibes my way. The engineer seemed to be impressed by physic prowess that some of you possess.

so now the final interview round is on Wednesday, and if that goes well, I’ll be employed!

Great to hear man! Thank you for always working so hard.

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

26 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

lol. This isn’t 2021. But I am pretty confident 6/13-6/15 will be our hottest time of the year so far. Probably a 90 burger or two in places. 

Probably. 90s are a given nowadays but it wasn’t always that way. Even with how much the climate is warming that 2021 caliber heatwave probably won’t happen again for a decade or two atleast. Never say never but that was truly a perfect storm. 

 

I’m sure some low 100s are probably coming in the next 5-10 years in Puget sound but getting 3 +100s at SEA and hitting 108 or higher was extremely anomalous. More anomalous than any weather event any of us has seen in western WA. It’s hard enough getting one +100 in a year thankfully. 

[SeattleSmokeLayerFan]

8 minutes ago, KeyPeninsula_Wx said:

Probably. 90s are a given nowadays but it wasn’t always that way. Even with how much the climate is warming that 2021 caliber heatwave probably won’t happen again for a decade or two atleast. Never say never but that was truly a perfect storm. 

 

I’m sure some low 100s are probably coming in the next 5-10 years in Puget sound but getting 3 +100s at SEA and hitting 108 or higher was extremely anomalous. More anomalous than any weather event any of us has seen in western WA. It’s hard enough getting one +100 in a year thankfully. 

The setup was truly perfect. But the details weren't. A few adjustments and some parts of King County could've pushed 120 degrees. Kent Hill and Maple Valley hit 100 degrees at 9am, while other areas were way behind. Entirely east wind driven. The GFS had SeaTac hit 120+ degrees. Entirely possible if the East wind didn't die out. The temperature aloft most certainly supported it.

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

26 minutes ago, SeattleSmokeLayerFan said:

The setup was truly perfect. But the details weren't. A few adjustments and some parts of King County could've pushed 120 degrees. Kent Hill and Maple Valley hit 100 degrees at 9am, while other areas were way behind. Entirely east wind driven. The GFS had SeaTac hit 120+ degrees. Entirely possible if the East wind didn't die out. The temperature aloft most certainly supported it.

I mean even without it hitting 120 it smashed what was known to be possible regionally. I think before June 2021 it had only hit 100 degrees a couple times and never on consecutive days at SEA. 
 

It beat the old record max by a full 5 degrees and 3 consecutive days over 100 is pretty wild. Was even more crazy down in Oregon than here. 

[SeattleSmokeLayerFan]

11 minutes ago, KeyPeninsula_Wx said:

I mean even without it hitting 120 it smashed what was known to be possible regionally. I think before June 2021 it had only hit 100 degrees a couple times and never on consecutive days at SEA. 
 

It beat the old record max by a full 5 degrees and 3 consecutive days over 100 is pretty wild. Was even more crazy down in Oregon than here. 

We have some interesting microclimates that can really overperform with the right setup. I think we're in for some surprises...both in winter and in summer, as the climate continues to change.

[Meatyorologist]

8 minutes ago, SeattleSmokeLayerFan said:

We have some interesting microclimates that can really overperform with the right setup. I think we're in for some surprises...both in winter and in summer, as the climate continues to change.

70F in Leavenworth in December was pretty freakin zany.

[Meatyorologist]

January 2009 also needs mentioning. Probably the second most anomalous ridge in the modern era behind June 2021. Highs pushed 70F at Paradise in the dead of winter, while KSEA struggled to warm above freezing amidst dense freezing fog.

That ridge was the harbinger which preceded July's 103F at KSEA, another balls-to-the-wall airmass; though that heatwave lacked the unreal upper level resonant tourquing which propelled June 2021 into the stratosphere.

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, SeattleSmokeLayerFan said:

The setup was truly perfect. But the details weren't. A few adjustments and some parts of King County could've pushed 120 degrees. Kent Hill and Maple Valley hit 100 degrees at 9am, while other areas were way behind. Entirely east wind driven. The GFS had SeaTac hit 120+ degrees. Entirely possible if the East wind didn't die out. The temperature aloft most certainly supported it.

I would venture a guess that 120 anywhere near the Sound isn’t practically possible. There’s too much localized sea breeze potential despite deep offshore flow as occurred on the 28th. With such an insanely hot air mass it would be D**n near impossible to not have some manner of a low level reversal. In the end though, one of the most impressive readings to me was that evening when KSEA was still 98 degrees at 10pm just before the big reversal.  Wacky. 

[Meatyorologist]

57 minutes ago, SeattleSmokeLayerFan said:

The setup was truly perfect. But the details weren't. A few adjustments and some parts of King County could've pushed 120 degrees. Kent Hill and Maple Valley hit 100 degrees at 9am, while other areas were way behind. Entirely east wind driven. The GFS had SeaTac hit 120+ degrees. Entirely possible if the East wind didn't die out. The temperature aloft most certainly supported it.

I think the Puget Sound existing as it does will perma-lid temps on the Seattle ismuth to around 110-115, barring some RPC4.0 tier thermal reworking of the ocean-atmosphere heat budget. The GFS was smoking some low-res pack when churning out those runs.

[SeattleSmokeLayerFan]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

I think the Puget Sound existing as it does will perma-lid temps on the Seattle ismuth to around 110-115, barring some RPC4.0 tier thermal reworking of the ocean-atmosphere heat budget. The GFS was smoking some low-res pack when churning out those runs.

True, maybe not for SeaTac. But I think my area and east towards the foothills could've pulled it off  (115-120 range). Just needed the easterly flow to keep descending.

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

This would be pretty sick.

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

Not a bad 18z run on the euro but sharp cut off in Oregon. 

[Doom Buster]

3 minutes ago, KeyPeninsula_Wx said:

This would be pretty sick.

Significantly wetter than the already wet 18z through day 7. 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Doom Buster said:

Significantly wetter than the already wet 18z through day 7. 

It’s kind of a wrap around precip towards day 6-7 that’s heavy that I haven’t seen much of the on the other models. So it’s definitely a high end scenario compared to the other runs. 

[BLI snowman]

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

June 2021 had 103, 106, 105 at my place. Will legit never happen in my lifetime again. 

[GHweatherChris]

8 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

June 2021 had 103, 106, 105 at my place. Will legit never happen in my lifetime again. 

I would be willing to bet something liike it will legit will happen again, possibly more than one more time, very tough to bet against it now.  What probably won't happen again is a 1950 type winter, that should have happened again before the 3 day 2021 inferno, but it didn't.  Just my opinion, that is all.

[SeattleSmokeLayerFan]

Experienced 100+ degrees five days this century in the area. Three from 2021. The other was 2009, and there was another 100 burger in some Eastside areas a couple years after that (2015?).

[Doom Buster]

13 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

Warmest low at PDX since… December 10.

Only took nearly twice as much daylight to beat it! 

 

6 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Balmy low of 60F at KSEA. Pretty normal temps for this afternoon though, approaching 70

Both PDX and SEA will set midnight lows. Looks like SEA will hit at least 57 for the day.

[Phil]

Upon inception of -dAAMt mid-month, you would expect any ridge to retrograde offshore fairly quickly. Very skeptical of any prolonged western heat with this wave cycle, could be quite awhile until a lower frequency +TNH tendency becomes apparent.

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Upon inception of -dAAMt mid-month, you would expect any ridge to retrograde offshore fairly quickly. Very skeptical of any prolonged western heat with this wave cycle, could be quite awhile until a lower frequency +TNH tendency becomes apparent.

Not getting heat vibes out of the models. June can be a deceptively springlike month this far north during the right year, and we're painfully due.

June's long term average before 2013 was 60.5F. Since then, we haven't recorded a mean below 61.0F. 2012 had a proper Juneuary, dropping a nifty 58.3F; cooler than NINE out of the last 14 Mays. That's a stat.

[Meatyorologist]

June 2012 was only 1.6F warmer than April 2016, for those wanting a laugh

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Not getting heat vibes out of the models. June can be a deceptively springlike month this far north during the right year, and we're painfully due.

June's long term average before 2013 was 60.5F. Since then, we haven't recorded a mean below 61.0F. 2012 had a proper Juneuary, dropping a nifty 58.3F; cooler than NINE out of the last 14 Mays. That's a stat.

What location is this? June 2022 ran a solid negative departure at 925mb (nearly 1σ below the running mean).

Edit: Nevermind I was looking at May.

[Phil]

Been a cold start to summer across the high arctic (>80N).  I believe this is the coldest value this late in the cold season since 1958 in the DMI database but not 100% certain.

Winter was a nuclear torch, with not a single negative departure day on the 1958-2002 mean above 80N until the script flipped in May (which looks to continue for awhile still, under the +NAM tendency going forward).

You can play around with the data here.

https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

[Meatyorologist]

Using Oly as a proxy to filter out UHI concerns, you still see that June 2022 barely kissed the long term normal, while still being the coldest June since the last truly below normal series in 2010-12.

A couple other relevant graphs... NOAA reanalysis of the greater height pattern that month showed consistent WSW flow, and only the seventh occurrence of a 3"+ monthly rainfall total; interestingly, it came right off the heels of the sixth such year in 2021 (thanks, mid June AR, I'm sure you were that month's only noteworthy weather event.) Cloudy, mixed nights primarily within the warm sector of a stronger than usual Pacific storm track, plus a couple of AGW degrees tacked on, painted the picture of very mild nights, and cool afternoons. AKA near normal on average.

Averaging 2010-12 shows a subtle difference compared to 2022. Notice how the trough axis was positioned right along the coast, and that the offshore height contours leading into the region came from the gulf of Alaska, instead of the subtropical Pacific. The end result was an intrusion of cooler, drier airmasses overall, and a stronger marine layer presence.

[Phil]

This will be an incredible resource! Best news I’ve heard w/rt seasonal/intraseasonal forecasting tools in many years. Will very likely be my #1 browser tab.  

 

[Doom Buster]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Using Oly as a proxy to filter out UHI concerns, you still see that June 2022 barely kissed the long term normal, while still being the coldest June since the last truly below normal series in 2010-12.

A couple other relevant graphs... NOAA reanalysis of the greater height pattern that month showed consistent WSW flow, and only the seventh occurrence of a 3"+ monthly rainfall total; interestingly, it came right off the heels of the sixth such year in 2021 (thanks, mid June AR, I'm sure you were that month's only noteworthy weather event.) Cloudy, mixed nights primarily within the warm sector of a stronger than usual Pacific storm track, plus a couple of AGW degrees tacked on, painted the picture of very mild nights, and cool afternoons. AKA near normal on average.

Averaging 2010-12 shows a subtle difference compared to 2022. Notice how the trough axis was positioned right along the coast, and that the offshore height contours leading into the region came from the gulf of Alaska, instead of the subtropical Pacific. The end result was an intrusion of cooler, drier airmasses overall, and a stronger marine layer presence.

Yeah, main difference is that while several Junes since 2012 have had cold, spring like stretches for a couple weeks, they've all been offset by at least one heatwave that bumped up the monthly average significantly.

[MossMan]

.03” so far on the day.