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Posted

Wow, time is sure flying by. It just seems like yesterday was the 1st day of the new year and now it is late June and Tuesday with be the 1st of July. At Grand Rapids July in most years is the warmest month of the year. That was not the case in 2009 when both June and August were warmer. In 1947, 1900, 1937 and 1959 August was warmer than July. In the case of 1947 August was much warmer that year July had a mean of just 69.1 but August had a mean of 77.1.

The average 30 year mean at Grand Rapids is 72.8 with 3.86” of rain fall. The average H/L is stable at 82.8/61.7 on the 1st and 82.5/62.6 on the 31st. The warmest days on average are between the 9th and the 16th with a average H/L of 83.4/62.7. The 15-year average is warmer with the average mean being 73.5 with the daily average H/L of 82.8/62.0 on the 1st and 83.6/63.2 on the 31st the warmest days are between the 15th to the 22nd with a average a H/L of 84.3/63.6. The 15-year average July rain fall is 3.84”. The warmest means for July are 79.7 in 1921. 79.2 in 2012. 78.7 in 1916. 78.1 in 1901. 77.3 in 1936. Honorable mention goes to 2011 with a mean of 77.0. The coldest means for July are 67.1 in 2009. 67.2 in 1992. 68.1 in 1950. 68.2 in 1996. And 68.4 in 2014. The driest Julys are 0.40” in 1934. 0.46” in 1934. 0.54” in 1898. 0.56” in 1951 and 0.66” in 1930. There has been a total of 13 years when less than 1” of rain fell at Grand Rapids, the last time was in 1976. The wettest Julys are 1992 with 8.83”. 1950 with 8.42”. 1994 with 80.7”. 1912 with 7.47” 1917 with 6.91” honorable mention goes to 2006 with 6.90”. The record hottest day was 108 on July 13, 1936, it was also 106 on July 12th that same year. A high of 104 was  recorded in 2012 and 1934 for the hottest days ever recorded at Grand Rapids.  On average there are 5 days of 90 or better in July with the most being 18 in 2012 there have been 12 years of 0 days of 90 or better in July the last time was July 2021.  On average there are 11 days of 86 or better in July with the most 27 in 2012 and 1921. In 2009 and 2000 there were no days of 86 or better. The record low for July is 41 on July 6th, 1983.   Over the years it had gotten down into the 40’s in 75 Julys. The last time that happened was in 2005. Last year the mean at Grand Rapids was 75.0, that was a departure of +2.2,there 6 days of 90° or better the highest for the month was 93 and the lowest for the month was 56, there was 2.62” of rainfall.

Here are  some top 5 July’s

The warmest July’s

79.7  1921

79.1  2012

78.7  1916

78.1  1901

77.3  1936

Coolest

67.1  2009

67.2  1992

68.1  1950

68.2  1996

68.4  2014

Wettest

8.83  1992

8.42  1950

8.07  1994

7.47  1912

6.17  1916

Driest

0.40  1934

0.46  1939

0.54  1898

0.56  1951

0.56  1930

So it will soon be time to set back and see how July 2026 plays out.

  • Like 3
Posted

Pretty much all the models are now lowering those high in the sky temps for Chicago as we open up July.  While an official Heat Wave looks on tap, I think it is fair to say that 100's are not happening.  Storms are now in the forecast and you know how that goes as debris clouds, lake cooling, etc all can be a factor in the high temps for ORD and Chicago.  All in all, a summery forecast.

LRC for the win...that trended wetter!

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Out here in the Valley of the Sun, I'm pleased to see that a BN temp regime is in the works from SUN through most of next week!  I'm stoked.  Low 100's, low DP's are fine by me.  

  • Like 3
Posted

June has been great, July looks hot and humid but ultimately dry to start out. 

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Winter 25-26: Total Snow (7.0") Total Ice (0.1") 

Winter 24-25: Total Snow (11.7")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 3F   Coldest High: 16F

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Founder of https://satellitewx.com

Posted

By the way, my satellite website is about ready if any of you want to start checking it out, https://satellitewx.com/ I will have an app soon. It's free for now so might as well enjoy it! I will add some model data later this summer too. 

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Winter 25-26: Total Snow (7.0") Total Ice (0.1") 

Winter 24-25: Total Snow (11.7")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 3F   Coldest High: 16F

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Founder of https://satellitewx.com

Posted
14 hours ago, summerrules said:

cool summer ain’t happening this year I guess.

IMG_0056.gif

CPC's July outlook from earlier this month had a large area of equal chances across the Midwest, Lakes, and into the Ohio Valley.  Would imagine the new outlook that will be coming out later today will have a large part of that area in orange.  

Posted
56 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

CPC's July outlook from earlier this month had a large area of equal chances across the Midwest, Lakes, and into the Ohio Valley.  Would imagine the new outlook that will be coming out later today will have a large part of that area in orange.  

Or not.  Map looks similar to the June 18 release.  Here is the reasoning that they gave:

 

An area of equal chances (EC) of above-, near-, and below-normal temperatures 
stretches from the eastern Northern and Central Plains eastward across the 
Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Midwest, the northern Middle Mississippi Valley, 
and the Upper and Lower Great Lakes into the northern Ohio Valley. The 
transitory nature of the retrograding ridge and model differences in the ridge 
placement later in the month drive some of this uncertainty. Additionally, the 
potential emergence of an active MJO in phase 6/7, combined with El Nino 
conditions, could favor cooler temperatures over this region. However, because 
summer teleconnections are typically weaker and often overshadowed by long-term 
trends, EC is favored over below-normal probabilities. The temperature forecast 
for Alaska is complex due to an anticipated mid-month pattern shift. A weak 
tilt toward below-normal temperatures is indicated for southwest Alaska based 
on early-to-mid-July guidance and persistent below-normal SSTs, while 
above-normal temperatures are favored in the northeast, primarily supported by 
Week 3-4 model guidance and above-average temperature trends . 

off15_temp.thumb.gif.7c0d0b649600d8f88779f037c8071f5e.gif

 

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Posted

Good morning and welcome to July. The overnight low and current temperature here in my yard is 78 the DP is down to 72 here. Yesterday it took a long time for the sky to clear and that may have held down the high temperature a little, today the sky is clear at this time. Today the forecasted high is 96 tonight low is forecasted to be in the upper 70’s Thursday and Friday have highs forecasted in the low to mid 90’s lows should be around 70.  The 4th through next Tuesday should see temperatures a little cooler with highs from the mid 80’s to around 90 and lows in mid-60’s there is also a chance of showers over the weekend.

Looking at June 2026 the mean temperature at Grand Rapids was 68.0 that is a departure of -0.9 the highest for the month was 92 on the 29th and 30th the lowest for the month was 45 on the 2nd there were two stretches of below and above average temperatures one was 8 days in a row of above and one long one of 15 day in a row of below average temperatures. It was a dryer than average June with 2.92” of rainfall that is 1.02” below average.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 92/76 that 76 was the 2nd warmest low for any June 30th there were 19 CDD’s and there was no rainfall the highest wind gust was 30 MPH out of the SW.  The only weather events were fog and haze. For today the average H/L is 83/62 the record high of 101 was in 1931 the coolest high of 64 was in 2009 the record low of 44 was in 1982 the warmest low of 78 was in 1931. The most rainfall of 1.43” was in 1915. Last year the H/L was 83/67.

Some weather history for July 1st  1911, The high of just 79 degrees at Phoenix AZ was their coolest daily maximum of record for the month of July. The normal daily high for July 1st is 105 degrees. (The Weather Channel) 1988, Twenty-six cities in the north central and northeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Lows of 48 degrees at Providence RI, 48 degrees at Roanoke VA, 49 degrees at Stratford CT, and 48 degrees at Wilmington, DE, were records for the month of July. Boston MA equalled their record for July with a low of 50 degrees. Five inches of snow whitened Mount Washington NH. (The National Weather Summary) Here in Michigan, 2009, The coolest July in Grand Rapids history begins with a record cool high of only 64 degrees as clouds and scattered showers prevail.

 

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Posted

We finished June with temperatures for the month only slightly above normal. Our extremely hot stretch of weather begins today and will continue through the weekend. The hottest days look to be both Thursday and Friday where we will be in the upper 90's on the ridges and near or above 100 degrees in the valley locales. Shower chances increase by July 4th night and continue into Sunday and Monday. This will start to trim the extremely high temperatures and by next Tuesday we will be back to near normal with highs in the mid 80's.

image.png.6de44ad98886fc192a6696b8cfc08bcc.pngimage.thumb.png.81e644305c7227429109f9c84d0828c8.png

CLIMATE CHANGE IS REAL, CONSTANT AND OF COURSE CYCLICAL We are clearly in a warmer cycle - however there is certainly no climate emergency or existential threat to man! Climate remains a physical system, not a belief or proposition. The data I share will only focus on validated actual climate data and analysis for Chester County PA. I will occasionally share for comparison NOAA's altered historical temperature adjustments. In my view the only documented proof of human induced climate change are these NOAA data adjustments made to the actual raw data from the 1890's that continues through today.

East Nantmeal Twp. PA Average Seasonal Snow at 685 FT ASL (2003-Present) (36.0")  Recent seasonal Snow totals 2025/26 (47.9") / 2024/25 (21.5") / 2023/24 (24.5") / 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

NWS Forecast Office Philadelphia/Mount Holly  Skywarn® program observer CHPA-174

Posted

Cansips (canadian season model) favors below normal temperatures through the summer, fall, and winter for most of us with generally near or above normal precip. Seems too good to be true but I'll take it. It actually keeps the fun going into next spring too. 

map_maker.png

  • Like 2

Winter 25-26: Total Snow (7.0") Total Ice (0.1") 

Winter 24-25: Total Snow (11.7")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 3F   Coldest High: 16F

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Founder of https://satellitewx.com

Posted

The low at ORD this morning was 80.  That will break the record high minimum for the date.  

It used to be that you could pretty much take it to the bank that Midway would be warmer than O'Hare, but that is not necessarily the case anymore.  Indeed, this morning's low at Midway was 78.  

  • Like 2
Posted
1 hour ago, Black Hole said:

Cansips (canadian season model) favors below normal temperatures through the summer, fall, and winter for most of us with generally near or above normal precip. Seems too good to be true but I'll take it. It actually keeps the fun going into next spring too. 

map_maker.png

That is still a strange look for winter.  You wouldn't expect colder than average from Canada to the Gulf with a Nino of this magnitude.  Would point out though that this run has warmed up some in the north for winter compared to the previous run, and I wonder if future runs will warm as we get closer to winter.

Previous run:

cansips_T2maMean_month_us_7.thumb.png.2bfbbdc28b96f7399fa7d2035c3a726e.png

  • Like 1
Posted

Happy July!  Wow, I'm pleased to say that temps have dropped lower than forecasted this morning and dipping into the mid 60's!  That's incredible.  Some local wx stations are even touching 60F right now in the valley's that dip lower around town due to the hilly landscape.  Pretty awesome way to start off July.

Edit: Forgot to send this around 6:00am

  • Like 4
Posted

More efficient mixing out of dewpoints around Chicago metro today, which has allowed ORD to hit 95 so far.  

  • Like 1
Posted

High 90’s 

Humid. (Says it all)

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   

Historic Record High 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 2*F - 1989

 

Posted
16 hours ago, Hoosier said:

That is still a strange look for winter.  You wouldn't expect colder than average from Canada to the Gulf with a Nino of this magnitude.  Would point out though that this run has warmed up some in the north for winter compared to the previous run, and I wonder if future runs will warm as we get closer to winter.

Previous run:

cansips_T2maMean_month_us_7.thumb.png.2bfbbdc28b96f7399fa7d2035c3a726e.png

You guys do realize the CANSIPS has a well-known cold bias, right? It's a notoriously poor model when it comes to resolving 500 mb patterns, especially at this kind of lead time. Posting it is pretty pointless, no offense.

Just look at what CANSIPS was showing last spring (at a much shorter lead time, no less). It was forecasting a cold spring across the Great Lakes and Northeast, yet those regions ended up with one of their warmest springs on record. The CONUS as a whole finished with its second warmest spring ever. That's not exactly a ringing endorsement of the model's skill, especially since it has done this repeatedly and wasn't just a one-off bust.

Maybe by late November CANSIPS will have a better handle on the large-scale pattern (probably not), but at this range especially, it's little more than noise. The broader signals still overwhelmingly point toward a warm 2015–16-style winter (though a 1997-1998-style outcome wouldn't be a surprise either).

As for the CPC's July outlook, it's going to take a genuinely cold second half of the month for that forecast to verify. The first few days of the month are already going to put up big departures, and both the EPS and its AI counterpart keep the pattern generally warm through at least the 15th, so I don't buy their outlook, as well as their rather shallow and faulty reasoning (the MJO isn’t very relevant in this case, and this summer isn’t behaving like a pre super nino summer at all. There are many complex factors they aren’t taking into account).

IMG_0072.png

IMG_0073.webp

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Posted

Here's what the Cansips had for winter 2023-24 back at the end of July of that year. It thought the cold temp anomalies would extend as far north as central IN and only slightly above average for MN. Instead, it verified as the warmest winter on record for the lower 48, lmao. I can show many more examples, but y'all should get the point. It's just a defunct model at this point, not much more to say.

winter-season-2023-2024-forecast-united-states-canada-seasonal-temperature-anomaly-cansips-model.png

cd73.75.204.88.181.21.53.0.prcp.png

  • Like 1
Posted

Good morning.  The current temperature here in my yard at 6:35AM is 78 with a DP of 71.  Today looks to be another rather hot day with highs in the mid 90’s tonight should see lows in the low 70’s there is a chance of showers and maybe a rumble of thunder. Friday and the 4th will see better chance of some showers and maybe a thunderstorm with highs on Friday in the low 90’s and around 90 on the 4th Saturday night has around 80% chance of showers and may be a thunderstorm with lows in the upper 60’s. Ther is still a chance of shower and thunder on Sunday with highs in mid 80’s and lows in the lower 60’s. Monday through Wednesday should see some fine summer weather with highs in the mid to upper 80’s and lows in the 60’s with sunny to partly cloudy skies.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 93/77 that 77 was the 2nd warmest low for any July 1st there were 20 CDD’s and there was no rainfall. The highest wind speed was 28 MPH out of the SW. Weather events for the day were fog/haze.  For today the average H/L is 83/62 the record high of 98 was in 1910 the coolest high of 67 was in 2009 and 1945. The record low of 43 was in 2001 the warmest low of 74 was in 1911 (if it can stay above 74 until midnight a new record warm low could be set today) the most rainfall of 3.18” was in 2008. Last year the H/L was 88/63.

Some weather history for July 2nd 1988, Twenty-six cities in the eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. The morning low of 47 degrees at Roanoke, VA, broke the July record set the previous day. (The National Weather Summary) Here in Michigan, 2001,  Frost and freezing temperatures were observed in some locations with a 29 degree temperature recorded in Grant, Michigan in Newaygo County. The 39 degrees at Muskegon was the coldest July temperature on record there. 2008, A line of severe thunderstorms brought high winds, large hail, and some flooding from Muskegon to Grand Rapids and Lansing, south to Kalamazoo. In western Allegan County, winds estimated up to 75 mph brought down dozens of trees and snapped eight power poles. A roof was blown off a home in Kalamazoo County. Hail up to 1.75 inches in diameter caussed damage in Muskegon County. At Grand Rapids a record 3.18” of rain fell.

 

 

  • Like 2
Posted

No doubter triple-digit day in my region today:

IMG_6832.thumb.gif.96a7c0b0cb8c8a946a2bcab797fd0442.gif.c657c5a235e42da65208b04b3fe8c5d0.gif

9 hours ago, summerrules said:

Here's what the Cansips had for winter 2023-24 back at the end of July of that year. It thought the cold temp anomalies would extend as far north as central IN and only slightly above average for MN. Instead, it verified as the warmest winter on record for the lower 48, lmao. I can show many more examples, but y'all should get the point. It's just a defunct model at this point, not much more to say.

winter-season-2023-2024-forecast-united-states-canada-seasonal-temperature-anomaly-cansips-model.png

cd73.75.204.88.181.21.53.0.prcp.png

I would like to see one of the fall runs (September, October, or November). I'm pretty sure the cold signal disappeared by then.

How you know a strong/super el nino winter is going to be cold is if the cold signal is still there in fall. 2009-10 is a perfect example.

  • Sun 2
Posted

Gotta tell ya, the storm clusters look legit for the 4th of July holiday weekend over the same areas that got hit hard last LRC cycle.  Boaters and Anglers may have windows of opportunity, but in general, not the best weather for outdoor activities Fri-Sat across most of NE/IA/MO/MN/WI/IL/IN.  SUN looks like the better day of the long weekend for most once the storms push east.

Ok, lets talk Long Range now...as I see it, the upper level ridge will fire up over the SW/4 Corners and blossom into the PAC NW/N Rockies by the 11th/12th.  Once that happens, no doubt in my mind that Ridge Locks over W NAMER and will end up being a dominant NW Flow Week 2.  The quest remains, how long does it last?  Well, this was a long term long wave pattern in the LRC (2-3 weeks).  SO, if I were a betting man, I'd say NW Flow is the "Way to Go".

JMA weeklies agree....

Week 2...the wet signal in the 4 corners/Rockies is a sight for sore eyes....lets put out some fires!

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Screenshot2026-07-02at7_10_19AM.png.be342e5a16a6cbd5fcbd0b59549859e1.png

 

 

Week 3-4...that also means, look for the continuation of an active pattern...

2.png.3e4999e608cd3ef79c7d61371a03b92d.png

 

Screenshot2026-07-02at7_09_26AM.png.ce74823567c2cfbdbbbed0d9afcb0470.png

  • Like 1
Posted

Today will be our hottest day with the possibility that many lower spots touch 100 degrees and could approach the record for the day of 103 degrees set way back in 1901 at Coatesville 1SW at 103 degrees. We have not set a record high in the month of July since back on July 24, 2016 when a record of 100 degrees was set at Phoenixville 1E. The heat continues through the weekend but with shower chances steadily increasing by later July 4th through the day on Monday. Temperatures will fall back to near normal by Tuesday and back to below normal temperatures by Wednesday.

image.png.b7dd48b96f3e6e180c20aee45838bdef.pngimage.thumb.png.500c8107875e7854f28fcd5499135a75.png

CLIMATE CHANGE IS REAL, CONSTANT AND OF COURSE CYCLICAL We are clearly in a warmer cycle - however there is certainly no climate emergency or existential threat to man! Climate remains a physical system, not a belief or proposition. The data I share will only focus on validated actual climate data and analysis for Chester County PA. I will occasionally share for comparison NOAA's altered historical temperature adjustments. In my view the only documented proof of human induced climate change are these NOAA data adjustments made to the actual raw data from the 1890's that continues through today.

East Nantmeal Twp. PA Average Seasonal Snow at 685 FT ASL (2003-Present) (36.0")  Recent seasonal Snow totals 2025/26 (47.9") / 2024/25 (21.5") / 2023/24 (24.5") / 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

NWS Forecast Office Philadelphia/Mount Holly  Skywarn® program observer CHPA-174

Posted

Coincidentally, yesterday's high of 95 in Chicago was the warmest opening day of July since 1991, a year that also went on to become strong Nino.

Parts of the area got outflowed this morning.  Didn't really make it through here though, and a loop of the radar indicates that it is stalling and washing out.  

Posted

Nice line of storms up in South Dakota this afternoon. Wish it would rain here, heat index over 100 again. 

  • Like 2

Winter 25-26: Total Snow (7.0") Total Ice (0.1") 

Winter 24-25: Total Snow (11.7")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 3F   Coldest High: 16F

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Founder of https://satellitewx.com

Posted
10 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

No doubter triple-digit day in my region today:

IMG_6832.thumb.gif.96a7c0b0cb8c8a946a2bcab797fd0442.gif.c657c5a235e42da65208b04b3fe8c5d0.gif

I would like to see one of the fall runs (September, October, or November). I'm pretty sure the cold signal disappeared by then.

How you know a strong/super el nino winter is going to be cold is if the cold signal is still there in fall. 2009-10 is a perfect example.

What did you end up with?

Winter 25-26: Total Snow (7.0") Total Ice (0.1") 

Winter 24-25: Total Snow (11.7")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 3F   Coldest High: 16F

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Founder of https://satellitewx.com

Posted

Pretty legit day of heat in the northeast today.  Highs of 101 for BOS, 100 for NYC, 103 for PHL and 102 for DCA.

  • Like 2
Posted

This FF means business. Getting close to 2018 and 2010 values. 2018 killed a well known local sportscaster near Ankeny. And you don't get 6-12" of water over I-35 (major Freeway - buy design ) if it's not the real deal.

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
258 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

IAC099-153-031015-
/O.CON.KDMX.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-260703T1015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jasper IA-Polk IA-
258 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 AM CDT EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR NORTHWESTERN JASPER AND NORTHERN POLK COUNTIES...

At 258 AM CDT, the Iowa Department of Transportation reported 6 to
12 inches of water on I-35 northbound just north of Ankeny. Parts of
northern Polk County have received between 4 and 8 inches of
rainfall per rain gage observations and radar estimates. For
northern Jasper County, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are more
common. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in
the warned area as storms continue to move into the area this
morning. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Department of Transportation reported.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Ankeny, Johnston, Newton, Bondurant, Polk City, Colfax, Granger,
  Baxter, Iowa Speedway, Saylorville Lake, Big Creek Lake, Elkhart,
  Alleman, Sheldahl, Mingo, Lambs Grove, Valeria, Newton Municipal
  Airport and Big Creek State Park.

Expect significant flash flooding in the Fourmile Creek Basin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

For the latest stream observations and forecasts refer to
weather.gov/desmoines/water.

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
  • Like 3

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Posted

Good morning.  There was a thunderstorm to my south last night with moderate amount of lightning seen to the south and southeast. Here in my yard I record 0.02” of rainfall overnight. The 7AM temperature here is 71 was a DP of 68 with partly cloudy skies at this time. The official low yesterday at Grand Rapids was 78 the set a new record warmest low for any July 2nd at GRR. Today looks to still be on the hot side with highs forecasted to reach around 90 there is about a 40% chance of showers or thunder tonight should see around a 60% chance of rain with a low around 70. The 4th and Sunday will continue to see chances of rain with highs in the upper 80’s on Saturday and lower 80’s on Sunday. Lows will be in the 60’s. Starting Monday we will see nice summer weather that should last until at least Thursday with highs in the mid to upper 80’s and lows in the mid to upper 60’ and a good amount of sunshine.

The official H/L in Grand Rapids yesterday was 94/78 there were 21 CDD’s there was 0.01” of rainfall before midnight. The highest wind gust was 31 MPH out of the SW.  Some weather events were thunderstorm in the area and light rain. For today the average H/L is 83/62 the record high of 97 has been recorded in several years with the last time in 1966 the coolest high of 63 was recorded in 1954 and 1892 the record low of 43 was in 1968 the warmest low of 76 has been recorded in several years the last time was in 2012. The most rainfall of 2.85” was in 1902. Last year the H/L was 88/62.

Some weather history for July 3rd 1966, The northeastern U.S. was in the midst of a sweltering heat wave. The temperature at Philadelphia reached 104 degrees. Afternoon highs of 102 degrees at Hartford CT, 105 degrees at Allentown PA, and 107 degrees at LaGuardia Airport in New York City established all-time records for those two locations. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1989,  Showers and thunderstorms produced locally heavy rain in the eastern U.S. Bowling Green, KY, was soaked with 4.99 inches of rain during the morning hours, and up to ten inches of rain deluged Oconee County SC. The temperature at Alamosa, CO, soared to a record warm reading of 91 degrees, following a record low of 35 degrees the previous day. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Here in Michigan, 1966, A five day heat wave peaked with temperatures in the upper 90s. The high of 99 degrees set a daily record at Lansing, the second in a row following a high of 98 degrees on the 2nd.

 

 

  • Like 1
Posted

All the rain has been crapping out before reaching Cedar Rapids.

  • Sad 2

season snowfall: 31.0"

'24-25: 18.9"      '23-24: 35.1"      '22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"     

Average snowfall: ~30"

Posted
2 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

This FF means business. Getting close to 2018 and 2010 values. 2018 killed a well known local sportscaster near Ankeny. And you don't get 6-12" of water over I-35 (major Freeway - buy design ) if it's not the real deal.

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
258 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

IAC099-153-031015-
/O.CON.KDMX.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-260703T1015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jasper IA-Polk IA-
258 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 AM CDT EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR NORTHWESTERN JASPER AND NORTHERN POLK COUNTIES...

At 258 AM CDT, the Iowa Department of Transportation reported 6 to
12 inches of water on I-35 northbound just north of Ankeny. Parts of
northern Polk County have received between 4 and 8 inches of
rainfall per rain gage observations and radar estimates. For
northern Jasper County, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are more
common. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in
the warned area as storms continue to move into the area this
morning. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Department of Transportation reported.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Ankeny, Johnston, Newton, Bondurant, Polk City, Colfax, Granger,
  Baxter, Iowa Speedway, Saylorville Lake, Big Creek Lake, Elkhart,
  Alleman, Sheldahl, Mingo, Lambs Grove, Valeria, Newton Municipal
  Airport and Big Creek State Park.

Expect significant flash flooding in the Fourmile Creek Basin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

For the latest stream observations and forecasts refer to
weather.gov/desmoines/water.

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

I just flipped through the radar loop since 5pm last night and non stop training storms over DSM area.  Wow, that's pretty D**n wild.  This is kinda what happened in MKE during the previous LRC cycle where they got bombarded daily with storms and tremendous flooding.  It appears N IL got hit also last night and overnight.  

Posted

The low here in East Nantmeal was only 77.2 degrees. This is the 3rd highest minimum temperature since 2004. Another hot day today with temperatures close to what they were yesterday - mid 90's to near 100 degrees. Small chances of some showers tonight and we begin to slowly trim the heat with highs tomorrow closer to the mid-90's. Shower at T-storm chances ramp up later tomorrow and at night. We then fall back closer to normal temperatures on Sunday before we trend to below normal temperatures by both Monday and Tuesday.

image.png.48ef9a605792c00f634959ab7ec98a12.pngimage.thumb.png.a80dbca3e4a9e1c5c9aa87d43f7e7e4b.png

CLIMATE CHANGE IS REAL, CONSTANT AND OF COURSE CYCLICAL We are clearly in a warmer cycle - however there is certainly no climate emergency or existential threat to man! Climate remains a physical system, not a belief or proposition. The data I share will only focus on validated actual climate data and analysis for Chester County PA. I will occasionally share for comparison NOAA's altered historical temperature adjustments. In my view the only documented proof of human induced climate change are these NOAA data adjustments made to the actual raw data from the 1890's that continues through today.

East Nantmeal Twp. PA Average Seasonal Snow at 685 FT ASL (2003-Present) (36.0")  Recent seasonal Snow totals 2025/26 (47.9") / 2024/25 (21.5") / 2023/24 (24.5") / 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

NWS Forecast Office Philadelphia/Mount Holly  Skywarn® program observer CHPA-174

Posted

One spot just nw of Des Moines got nearly 10 inches of rain in the last 24 hours.

  • Like 2
  • Storm 1

season snowfall: 31.0"

'24-25: 18.9"      '23-24: 35.1"      '22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"     

Average snowfall: ~30"

Posted

Nasty lows on the east coast this morning.  Anybody without a/c crying for their momma.

NYC:  84

DCA:  84

PHL:  82

BOS:  82

  • Sick 1
  • Facepalm 1
Posted

Below is the June and 1st Half of 2026 Chester County Area Climate Summary. Overall the county finished with a slightly above average temperature of 70.8 degrees or 0.6 degrees above the 1991-2020 climate baseline for June of 70.2 degrees. When using the entire climate dataset since 1893 we finished only +0.4 degrees above our overall 134 year average June temperature which is 70.4. This was 1.2 degrees cooler than June 2025 and our coolest June since the 67.4 degree average in June 2023. This was our 61st warmest June over the last 134 years of county climate data. Through the 1st 6 months of the year our average temperature was 48.0 degrees. This is 0.4 degrees below the 1991-2020 baseline and 0.1 degree over the 1893 - 2025 baseline. This represents our coldest start to a year since 2015. Overall this is the 66th warmest 1st half of a year over the last 134 years. Average precipitation across all stations was 3.11" this is 1.20" the 1991-2020 baseline and 1.02" below the overall average since 1893. For the 1st half of the year county precipitation has averaged 15.34" this is 6.95" below the 1991-2020 baseline of 22.29" and 6.82" below the 1893-2026 all years average of 22.16". This is our 7th driest average precipitation total with the lowest being the 13.82" average for the first half of 1963.

image.thumb.png.46a51b38e8a9389574770dcf0aa3c1c7.png

  • Like 1

CLIMATE CHANGE IS REAL, CONSTANT AND OF COURSE CYCLICAL We are clearly in a warmer cycle - however there is certainly no climate emergency or existential threat to man! Climate remains a physical system, not a belief or proposition. The data I share will only focus on validated actual climate data and analysis for Chester County PA. I will occasionally share for comparison NOAA's altered historical temperature adjustments. In my view the only documented proof of human induced climate change are these NOAA data adjustments made to the actual raw data from the 1890's that continues through today.

East Nantmeal Twp. PA Average Seasonal Snow at 685 FT ASL (2003-Present) (36.0")  Recent seasonal Snow totals 2025/26 (47.9") / 2024/25 (21.5") / 2023/24 (24.5") / 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

NWS Forecast Office Philadelphia/Mount Holly  Skywarn® program observer CHPA-174

Posted

East Nantmeal current temp is 92.7 the high has been 93.0. This is the 3rd consecutive day  I have reached 90 degrees. This marks only the 8th "heatwave" I have recorded in my 23 summers here in EN since 2004. Of note my poorly sited rooftop Tempest has gone 95.4 / 98.2 / 94.8 the last 3 days vs my VP Pro 2 with 93.0/94.8/91.0

  • Like 2

CLIMATE CHANGE IS REAL, CONSTANT AND OF COURSE CYCLICAL We are clearly in a warmer cycle - however there is certainly no climate emergency or existential threat to man! Climate remains a physical system, not a belief or proposition. The data I share will only focus on validated actual climate data and analysis for Chester County PA. I will occasionally share for comparison NOAA's altered historical temperature adjustments. In my view the only documented proof of human induced climate change are these NOAA data adjustments made to the actual raw data from the 1890's that continues through today.

East Nantmeal Twp. PA Average Seasonal Snow at 685 FT ASL (2003-Present) (36.0")  Recent seasonal Snow totals 2025/26 (47.9") / 2024/25 (21.5") / 2023/24 (24.5") / 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

NWS Forecast Office Philadelphia/Mount Holly  Skywarn® program observer CHPA-174

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