July 2026 Observations & Discussions

[Hoosier]

Looks like Chicago is going to miss putting together a 5 day streak of 90+.  Got to 88 at ORD earlier before the storms rolled in.

A somewhat decent run of heat/humidity for the area, but a far cry from what earlier runs of the GFS were showing.  I was skeptical of that extremely long duration all along though, as it's very difficult to sustain a strong enough ridge to support uninterrupted 90s as far north as the GFS was indicating.  

[Hoosier]

Just got rocked here moments ago.  Winds probably near 70 mph.  

[Clinton]

Returning home to some heat.  It's currently 92 with a heat index of 103.  A chance of storms tomorrow hopefully they won't interfere with any fireworks in the evening. 

[Grizzcoat]

5 days in a row of 90+ heat for DSM as today will not make to 90F or higher.

Did set 2 max min records but 5 days in a row of 90+ heat is hardly worth even mentioning. 1934 had 11 in a row THREE TIMES. That's nuts. 

Here is the top 25 90+ streaks (consecutive days at 90 or higher)

 

[summerrules]

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Looks like Chicago is going to miss putting together a 5 day streak of 90+.  Got to 88 at ORD earlier before the storms rolled in.

A somewhat decent run of heat/humidity for the area, but a far cry from what earlier runs of the GFS were showing.  I was skeptical of that extremely long duration all along though, as it's very difficult to sustain a strong enough ridge to support uninterrupted 90s as far north as the GFS was indicating.  

Had the ridge not trended east, the earlier GFS runs likely would have come close to verifying, as doing so would have prolonged the heat and prevented convection from forming or moving into the area as early as it did. I'm sure we'll have more chances though as there's still plenty of summer left.

[summerrules]

1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

5 days in a row of 90+ heat for DSM as today will not make to 90F or higher.

Did set 2 max min records but 5 days in a row of 90+ heat is hardly worth even mentioning. 1934 had 11 in a row THREE TIMES. That's nuts. 

Here is the top 25 90+ streaks (consecutive days at 90 or higher)

 

The removal of native grasslands combined with poor farming practices directly influenced the circulation pattern of the entire Northern Hemisphere, and as a result intensified the extreme heat during the 1930s by reducing soil moisture and increasing surface heating, leading to the formation of The Dust Bowl. Going to take a long time to beat some of those records set back in that era, even as the climate warms.

https://news.ucar.edu/132872/1930s-dust-bowl-affected-extreme-heat-around-northern-hemisphere

[Grizzcoat]

43 minutes ago, summerrules said:

The removal of native grasslands combined with poor farming practices directly influenced the circulation pattern of the entire Northern Hemisphere, and as a result intensified the extreme heat during the 1930s by reducing soil moisture and increasing surface heating, leading to the formation of The Dust Bowl. Going to take a long time to beat some of those records set back in that era, even as the climate warms.

https://news.ucar.edu/132872/1930s-dust-bowl-affected-extreme-heat-around-northern-hemisphere

I'am not totally sold on that as the 1950's were also much warmer ( than now)  for max temps in the Heartland.  I think a lot has to do with increased water vapor in the atmosphere now compared to the 1930's and why many more max min's records are set compared to max max. (especially summer with UHI)

1988 and 2012 show what can happen in a serious drought in the Heartland. Throw another year of serious drought before or after 1988 or 2012 and Ithink some of the 30's records get a run for their $$. 

Cool stat about 1950's and 2012 -- Until July 23rd , 2012 when the temp hit 105F and broke the max record here at DSM -- that last time a max record was broken in the month of July was 1955. That's 56 years. That was a good run and remember it well . (July 23rd 2012)

 

[Hoosier]

54 minutes ago, summerrules said:

Had the ridge not trended east, the earlier GFS runs likely would have come close to verifying, as doing so would have prolonged the heat and prevented convection from forming or moving into the area as early as it did. I'm sure we'll have more chances though as there's still plenty of summer left.

It's not just a matter of it trending east though.  There's a latitude component to this as well, which makes it unusual (though not impossible) to get long double digit streaks of 90s the farther north you go from I-80.  We're not St. Louis or Washington DC.  Look at Boston... they are about as far east as you can go in the CONUS, and their forecast highs are in the 70s and 80s after tomorrow.

[Hoosier]

Got hit pretty good again.  Almost as much wind as the afternoon storm.  Also a lot of rain, which is not an ideal way to run the pre 4th of July festivities.

[Grizzcoat]

Crazy how close to 2018. And almost to the exact day. 

[westMJim]

Happy 4^th of July. The thunderstorms yesterday were to the south and southeast of my area. In my area there was just light rain with dark skies to the south. The evening event brought 0.15” of rainfall and overnight I had an additional 0.07” for a total of 0.22” The 6:30 temperature here is 71 with a DP of 69. Today should be partly cloudy with 40% chance of showers the high should be in the upper 80’s tonight there is a good chance of fireworks and a lesser chance of showers with a low in the mid 60’s.  Sunday with see a slight chance of showers and a high in the low 80’s and a low in the low 60’s. Monday through  look to have some great summer weather with highs in the 80’s and lows in the 60’s there is a chance of showers Thursday and Friday.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 89/69 there were 14 CDD’s 0.28” of rainfall the highest wind gust was 53 MPH out of the SW. Weather events were thunderstorm, light rain and fog.  For today the average H/L is 83/62 the record high of 100 was in 1897 and 1911 the high was 99 in 2012. The coolest high of 64 was in 1970 the record low of 45 was in 1972 the warmest low of 78 was in 2012. The most rainfall of 1.74” was in 1903. Last year the H/L was 88/65.

Some weather history for July 4^th 1776, Thomas Jefferson paid for his first thermometer, and signed the Declaration of Independence. According to his weather memorandum book, at 2 PM it was cloudy and 76 degrees. (David Ludlum) 1911, The northeastern U.S. experienced sweltering 100 degree heat. The temperature soared to 105 degrees at Vernon, VT, and North Bridgton ME, and to 106 degrees at Nashua NH, to establish all-time records for those three states. Afternoon highs of 104 at Boston, MA, 104 at Albany, NY, and 103 at Portland, ME, were all-time records for those three cities. (The Weather Channel) And here in Michigan, 1969, Nature’s fireworks turn violent as severe thunderstorms form in the evening and drop several tornadoes across Lower Michigan. More than 60 people are injured, most of them from a tornado that hit Flat Rock in southern Wayne County. This tornado destroyed a tile factory, carrying sheet metal over a mile. Another tornado injured eleven people about four miles east of Jackson as it damaged a dozen mobile homes. 2003, The July 4th holiday turns tragic as seven people drown in rip currents on the eastern shore of Lake Michigan. A line of thunderstorms earlier in the day had produced strong winds across the middle of the lake, and the dangerous currents formed several hours later.

 

[Tom]

8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Got hit pretty good again.  Almost as much wind as the afternoon storm.  Also a lot of rain, which is not an ideal way to run the pre 4th of July festivities.

Ya, I was talking with my sister yesterday and my cousin snapped some vids of the tropical downpours last night.  The fireworks shows ended up starting about an hour earlier before the storms rolled through.

[luminen]

My data for July so far:

Max dew point was 79.7F yesterday. Temp was 89.3F at that time. 

Massive thunderstorm on the 2nd brought torrential rainfall and continuous thunder/lightning for 2-3 hours.

Date	Temperature (°F)			Dew Point (°F)	Humidity (%)	Precipitation (in)	Observations
	Max	Min	Mean	Mean	Mean	Daily
2026-07-01	81.6	58.7	69.3	64.1	84.3	0.00	288
2026-07-02	87.5	65.4	73.0	70.5	92.6	1.48	288
2026-07-03	89.7	65.3	75.4	71.9	90.1	0.01	288
2026-07-04	74.5	64.8	68.0	66.6	95.3	0.00	125

[Tom]

Happy 4th of July to all of our members on here!  It's a great time to be alive and relish in this present moment of our Nations historic achievement.  Happy 250th Birthday 'Merica!!!   #USA. 

 

Some pretty good wind gusts over Chicagoland yesterday...ORD Reported a Record 1.71" of Rain yesterday.

 

 

[Clinton]

Mother Nature is celebrating the 4th early with some thunderstorms.   Hopefully things clear out for the evening fireworks. 

[Hawkeye]

The best rain missed just south overnight.  I got 0.38".  My late-week total is 1.15".  

[chescowxman]

Happy Independence Day to all!!! Well while today will still be sweltering it will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Real relief arrives tomorrow as temperatures fall back to near normal levels for early July with highs in the mid-80's. We will see temperatures fall to below average by Monday and continue through the middle of the week. Shower chances start to increase this evening, but I think the best chances for rain will be after fireworks. Rain chances really increase Sunday night into Monday morning. Some spots could see between 1 to 2 inches of much needed rain.

[Tom]

Totally unexpected rain showers hit my area this morning.  Felt so good on my walk to get soaked a bit.  All the folks walking around the fountain were stoaked!  Keep it comin’ Monsoon!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[chescowxman]

Happy 4th of July to all of you! Below is the history of July 4th weather since 1893 here in Chester County PA. Overall we have seen a flat trend in average temperature / a slight cooling trend for high temperatures and a slight warming trend for overnight low temperatures for the holiday. The hottest July 4th was back in 1966 the chilliest was in 1978.

[hawkstwelve]

Reports of funnel clouds in some nearby showers. Looking like a chance for showers/thunderstorms tonight but hopefully they stay off to the south and east.

Hope everyone has a very fun and safe 4th!

[Clinton]

Severe thunderstorm and flash flood warning for this bowed line of thunderstorms.  Big wind bag about to blow through. 

 

[MI Storm]

3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Severe thunderstorm and flash flood warning for this bowed line of thunderstorms.  Big wind bag about to blow through. 

 

Good luck down there! Just steady rain here in the KC Nortland 

[Clinton]

45 minutes ago, MI Storm said:

Good luck down there! Just steady rain here in the KC Nortland 

I had a 76mph wind gust.  Lots of limbs down and power is out.

[MI Storm]

22 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I had a 76mph wind gust.  Lots of limbs down and power is out.

Looks nasty in that bow. Hope it comes back soon 

[Black Hole]

Models don't know quite where to put it, but this big ridge is going to cook all of us in some form. At least we are getting some rain tonight and maybe one more shot in a week. 

[summerrules]

21 hours ago, Hoosier said:

It's not just a matter of it trending east though.  There's a latitude component to this as well, which makes it unusual (though not impossible) to get long double digit streaks of 90s the farther north you go from I-80.  We're not St. Louis or Washington DC.  Look at Boston... they are about as far east as you can go in the CONUS, and their forecast highs are in the 70s and 80s after tomorrow.

I understand the argument you're making, and I agree latitude was certainly a factor and it wasn’t just the eastward trend. I should have been more specific, so I’ll just say that the eastward trend AND the slight weakening/flattening of the ridge itself played a major role in our outcome. If the ridge had verified closer to 597 dm like some of the models were showing earlier and remained farther west, as several earlier runs depicted, I think we almost certainly would have squeezed out a few more days in the 90s at least. Maybe we don't end up with the 10–11 day stretch of 95°+ that some guidance was hinting at, but at minimum week-long run of 90s with a couple shots at 100° seems entirely plausible in that specific scenario.

Boston isn’t super comparable in this case tbh. Despite having a significantly cooler climatology than we do, they still managed a couple of 100° days and challenged records without even sitting beneath the core of the 594 dm ridge, which arguably makes what they experienced even more impressive. To me, that highlights just how important the ridge's placement and strength were. Had the ridge axis ended up even 100–200 miles farther west we likely would have remained capped and hotter for longer, with stronger subsidence and warmer low-level thicknesses sticking around for longer, resulting in a longer stretch of 90s and a much better chance of reaching 100° (assuming the same 594 dm strength, if it were like 600 dm who knows what would’ve happened).

Either way, I'm not going to argue it any further, it was a respectable stretch of heat and humidity around here, but in the end it wasn't especially memorable. Weather can get extremely fickle at times, and even just slight changes in the upper levels can have huge impacts on our sensible weather. We may even see a more noteworthy heat event around mid-month if the Euro is onto something, but that's way out there.

[summerrules]

2 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Models don't know quite where to put it, but this big ridge is going to cook all of us in some form. At least we are getting some rain tonight and maybe one more shot in a week. 

Seems to be trending east too, just like this latest ridge…

[summerrules]

22 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

I'am not totally sold on that as the 1950's were also much warmer ( than now)  for max temps in the Heartland.  I think a lot has to do with increased water vapor in the atmosphere now compared to the 1930's and why many more max min's records are set compared to max max. (especially summer with UHI)

1988 and 2012 show what can happen in a serious drought in the Heartland. Throw another year of serious drought before or after 1988 or 2012 and Ithink some of the 30's records get a run for their $$. 

Cool stat about 1950's and 2012 -- Until July 23rd , 2012 when the temp hit 105F and broke the max record here at DSM -- that last time a max record was broken in the month of July was 1955. That's 56 years. That was a good run and remember it well . (July 23rd 2012)

 

The 1930s summers were notably hotter overall than the 1950s or (any individual year before or after) in Des Moines (and The Plains) from what I'm seeing. Des Moines' all-time record high of 110°F was set during the Dust Bowl, and many of its most extreme heat records also date from that period. You can argue that the drought alone would have produced a hot summer, but it's difficult to refute the evidence that land degradation intensified the heat.

Removing native grasslands and exposing dry, bare soil reduced evapotranspiration and soil moisture, allowing much more incoming solar energy to go directly into heating the surface and lower atmosphere instead of evaporating water. That creates a positive feedback where hotter temperatures dry the soil even further, leading to even more heating.

Modern climate modeling studies have shown this feedback substantially amplified the Dust Bowl heat beyond what drought alone would have produced. We also haven't seen anything approaching the persistence and spatial extent of the 1930s heat in the central U.S. since then. Even 2012, despite being an exceptional heat and drought year, wasn't on the same level over the 30s summers as a whole, let alone just July.

As for the bolded, not sure if that's true. The 2020s thus far has averaged hotter for max temps compared to the 50s in The Heartland during summer.

[MXE]

50 minutes ago, summerrules said:

Seems to be trending east too, just like this latest ridge…

it'll end up being a Rockies ridge more than likely. We just can't seem to get these huge ridges to form in the Midwest anymore for some reason, yet the east and west both roast. I do agree with you on the implications of poor farming practices back in the 30s, but @Grizzcoat is also likely correct in the increased water vapor making it exceedingly difficult to attain these super high max temps. Maybe a severe drought could come close to producing those temps nowadays, but we're not headed for a drought anytime soon.

[MXE]

On 7/3/2026 at 1:55 PM, Hoosier said:

Looks like Chicago is going to miss putting together a 5 day streak of 90+.  Got to 88 at ORD earlier before the storms rolled in.

A somewhat decent run of heat/humidity for the area, but a far cry from what earlier runs of the GFS were showing.  I was skeptical of that extremely long duration all along though, as it's very difficult to sustain a strong enough ridge to support uninterrupted 90s as far north as the GFS was indicating.  

Didn't Sept 2017 put up like a 7 day stretch of 90+? It was also late Sept too I believe, which makes it one of the most impressive heat events in Chicago's history imo. Also the same year we had the incredible February warm spell too.

[james1976]

Happy 4th everyone!

Been a week of great summer weather up here. Mostly 80s and its been humid with some thunderstorms. Classic summertime weather. This past Monday was the hottest with a peak heat index of 111. 

Currently got the charcoal warming up and a cold beer in hand. Gonna have steaks and sweetcorn tonight. Also watching a line of slow moving storms heading this way. Sky is getting dark to the NW. Eventful evening ahead!

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, MXE said:

Didn't Sept 2017 put up like a 7 day stretch of 90+? It was also late Sept too I believe, which makes it one of the most impressive heat events in Chicago's history imo. Also the same year we had the incredible February warm spell too.

Yep, 7 days in a row at ORD.  The ridge was quite strong by late September standards, and dewpoints mixed down into the low 60s and even 50s during the latter part of the heatwave.

[westMJim]

Good morning!  There was once again some heavy rain to the south of Grand Rapids yesterday and there was a smaller area of heavy rain to the north of GR.  Here in my yard I had just a trace of rainfall overnight and the current temperature and overnight low is 71 with a DP of 68.  It is cloudy this morning and a slight mist in the air. Today looks to see temperatures in the lower 80’s and tonight the low should be in the lower 60’s there is a 30 to 40% chance of showers with most being to the south of Grand Rapids. The rest of the upcoming week looks to have some great summer weather with highs in the 80’s and lows in the 60’s there will be a chance of showers from Wednesday night into Thursday. But this will be a great week to enjoy some nice summer weather.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 85/70 there were 13 CDD’s there was 0.18” of rainfall.  Weather events were thunder, rain, light rain fog and haze.  For today the average H/L is 82/62 the record high of 101 was in 2012, the coolest high of 65 was in 1956 the record low of 44 was in 1972 the warmest low of 82 was in 1982 the most rainfall of 3.56” was in 1994.  Last year the H/L was 93/71.

Some weather history for July 5th 1970, The morning low at Death Valley CA was 103 degrees, and the high that afternoon was 120 degrees. (The Weather Channel) Here in Michigan 1921, A record high of 100 degrees at Grand Rapids contributes to July 1921 becoming the warmest month on record there with a mean temperature of 79.8 degrees. 1972, Temperatures fell to record lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s across the region. The 37 degrees at Lansing was the coldest July reading of the 20th century there.

 

[Tom]

Our town does it right…Great show!  Hope everyone was able to enjoy some fun last night.

\ 

 

 

 

   

 

[Tom]

The 1st Heat Wave of the Summer Season is about to start this week...albeit, a bit later this year, it was bound to happen sooner rather than later as the Monsoon is showing real + signs next week.  If yesterday's surprise rain showers were not a sign from mother nature, I'm not sure how else you can script it.  It must have been the rainbow I caught a couple weeks ago that was the initial sign from nature that the rains will show up this summer.  

My gut feeling on how the second half of this calendar year in the PHX valley will play out will be entirely different compared to the 1st half.  It's kinda like a Football team gearing up during halftime and then pounding their opponent during the 2nd half.  It's Showtime!!!

 

[Black Hole]

A lot of Oklahoma got ripped pretty hard last night. Not too bad for me with 1.37" of rain and gusts to 40-45 mph or so. Norman and Bartlesville both had 80-95 mph winds. 

[chescowxman]

Some rain totals from the storms last night. DEOS stations at Atglen 0.72" / Chester Springs 0.48" / Devault 0.66" / Glenmoore 0.60" / Kennett Square 0.42"/ Longwood Gardens 0.18" / West Bradford 0.51" / Nottingham 0.54" / Warwick 0.42" / West Chester 0.19"/ West Grove 0.13" / KMQS Airport 0.46"/ KOQN Airport 0.10 Our run of 90+ days should end today for most folks across the area. In fact looking ahead at least I suspect we may not see another 90-degree reading for the next 10 days. This week will feature below normal temperatures through Wednesday with highs tomorrow through midweek in the mid to upper 70's. It will however be a wet week with rain chances later today through Tomorrow night and again Thursday into Friday. The driest day looks to be Wednesday.

[OttumwaSnomow]

On 7/3/2026 at 8:00 PM, Grizzcoat said:

I'am not totally sold on that as the 1950's were also much warmer ( than now)  for max temps in the Heartland.  I think a lot has to do with increased water vapor in the atmosphere now compared to the 1930's and why many more max min's records are set compared to max max. (especially summer with UHI)

1988 and 2012 show what can happen in a serious drought in the Heartland. Throw another year of serious drought before or after 1988 or 2012 and Ithink some of the 30's records get a run for their $$. 

Cool stat about 1950's and 2012 -- Until July 23rd , 2012 when the temp hit 105F and broke the max record here at DSM -- that last time a max record was broken in the month of July was 1955. That's 56 years. That was a good run and remember it well . (July 23rd 2012)

 

2012 by far the hottest, most miserable summer of my life!

The OTM thermometer simply was not reflective of the true temps in downtown Ottumwa Iowa along the Desmoines river (where the gages were located for many decades). The OTM site gets way more mixing of air and breezes is very flat area about 5 to 6 miles north of the river/downtown.

As I recall  on my gages and around the city of Ottumwa we saw:

20 days over 100F

60 days over 90F

And I witnessed a 111F in friends shady yard. Myb had a 109F.

And no significant rain June 20th thru Aug.

I hope I never see a 2012 again!

 

[Hoosier]

summerrules where you at?  

[westMJim]

Good morning!  Here in my yard there was a rather intense thundershower yesterday around 6:30 PM that dropped 0.87” of rain here in my yard. The overnight low and current temperature was 62 with a DP of 57. The next seven days looks to have some great summer weather with highs in the 80’s and lows in the 60’s it will by warm but the DP’s will be lower than last week. There is a chance of some showers and maybe even a thunderstorm. So all in all a short and sweet forecast.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 79/66 there were 8 CDD’s at the airport there was just a trace of rainfall. The highest wind gust was 31 MPH out of the E. reported weather events were light rain, fog. For today the average H/L is 83/62 the record high of 104 was in 2012 the coolest high of 70 was in 1942, the record low of 41 was in 1983 that is the coldest it has been in July at Grand Rapids.  The warmest low of 75 was in 1900.  The most rainfall of 2.02” was in 1917. Last year the H/L was 87/70 and there was 0.04” of rainfall.

Some weather history for July 6^th 1986, Thunderstorm rains during the mid morning hours, and again during the evening, produced major flash-flooding at Leavenworth, KS. The official rainfall total was 10.37 inches, but unofficial totals exceeded twelve inches. At nearby Kansas City, the rainfall total of 5.08 inches was a daily record for July. (Storm Data) 1988, Thirty-six cities in the north central and northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 98 degrees at International Falls, MN, and 101 degrees at Flint, MI, equalled all-time records. Highs of 96 degrees at Muskegon, MI, and 97 degrees at Buffalo, NY, were records for July. (The National Weather Summary) Here in Michigan, 1983, Cool high pressure settles over Lower Michigan and temperatures fall to record lows. The 41 degrees at Grand Rapids is the lowest ever recorded during the month of July.  2014,  Severe thunderstorms roll through on the night of July 6-7th. At least four tornadoes struck from near Grand Rapids to Saint Johns. A tornado with top winds estimated at 110 mph did heavy damage in the Grand Rapids suburb of Kentwood.