July 2026 Observations & Discussions

[Hawkeye]

I wish we could have received more rain in early July.  I got much less (1.15") than many locations across Iowa did, and now we have a long, dry (maybe hot, too) period coming up.

[Clinton]

I'm enjoying some upper 60s this morning with lower due points.  The next good chance of rain looks to be Thursday but models don't agree on how far south the rain will make it.

[Tom]

Does anyone have the new Euro Seasonal maps?  I think they come out today if I'm not mistaken.

 

 

[Tom]

It's been a long while since these kinda DP's surge into the Valley.  Man, oh man, that's going to feel a heckova lot like the Tropics.  Its showtime next week with the Monsoon!

[gimmesnow]

We got crushed in Walworth County Friday. Geneva Lake, Delavan Lake, and Como were trashed. I lost power Friday around noon and got it back Monday morning around 2AM.

I couldn't even get into my subdivision after the storm. The community all grabbed saws to open things up and we had skid steers and everything going full blast.

https://www.wgtd.org/news/nws-assesses-walworth-co-storm-damage-funds-established-storm-victims

[summerrules]

On 7/5/2026 at 5:34 PM, Hoosier said:

summerrules where you at?  

 

[Hoosier]

15 minutes ago, summerrules said:

 

Models in general agree on a north/east extension of the ridge, with the big question being just how far north/east.  Does look like the ridge will get beat down pretty quickly after that.

[Hoosier]

NAM really going to town with a convectively enhanced vort later Thursday into Friday.

[westMJim]

Good morning!  With clear skies and a calm wind the overnight low has dropped to 62 here in my yard with a DP of 57.  This week still looks to be a great summer week with highs in the mid to upper 80’s but lower DP’s than last week. There is around a 50% chance of showers on Thursday into Thursday night but most of the week should see a lot of sun. Lows will be in the 60’s the next week. Enjoy this great summer weather.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 84/64 there were 9 CDD’s there was no rainfall and no significant weather events were reported.  For today the average H/L is 83/62 the record high of 99 was in 2012 the coolest high of 66 was in 1995 the record low of 45 was in 1894 the warmest low of 78 was in 2012. The most rainfall of 1.66” was in 1994. Last year the H/L was 81/64 and there was 002” of rainfall.

Some weather history for July 7^th 1915, A severe wind and thunderstorm caused heavy damage and 38 deaths in and near Cincinnati, OH. Many older buildings were demolished. The steamship **** Fulton was overturned. (The Weather Channel). 1981, Montana was in the midst of a snowstorm that dumped ten inches at Glacier National Park, and produced winds to 90 mph. Meanwhile, Denver, CO, set a record high with a reading of 101 degrees. (The Weather Channel).  Here in Michigan, 1988, Lower Michigan is in the midst of another heat wave as the hot and dry summer of 1988 continues. Temperatures peak at 100 degrees on the 6th at Lansing andGrand Rapids, followed by a record high of 98 degrees on the 7th at Grand Rapids.

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Looks like we're going to get part of that heat wave next week:

[Clinton]

It doesn't appear the heat will get to bad in my area over the next 10 days.  A strong cold front next week could drop lows into the mid 60s.

[chescowxman]

Some light showers have been around this morning, and we will continue with some small chances of these through the day. We clear up tomorrow with what looks to be our best weather day of the week with sunny skies and highs several degrees below normal July levels in the upper 70's to near 80. Our next chance of showers and storms looks to arrive on Thursday night into Friday morning.

[chescowxman]

Looking ahead - no sign of any sustained 90+ heat in the Philly burbs...that works for me! 

[bud2380]

Looking at the extended, we are going to be on a houseboat on July 17-19th and am hoping for nice warm weather, but not oppressively hot.  The GFS and Euro are miles apart.  The GFS is seasonably cool while the Euro has a major heat wave.  Below is early afternoon on the 17th.  I'll be in northeast Iowa right up by the Iowa/MN/WI borders.  GFS has heat indices around 80, the Euro around 100.  

 

 

 

[jaster220]

On 7/2/2026 at 12:00 AM, summerrules said:

Here's what the Cansips had for winter 2023-24 back at the end of July of that year. It thought the cold temp anomalies would extend as far north as central IN and only slightly above average for MN. Instead, it verified as the warmest winter on record for the lower 48, lmao. I can show many more examples, but y'all should get the point. It's just a defunct model at this point, not much more to say.

Yep - was thinking the same exact thing "when's the last time the Cansips led the way in seasonal outlooks??"

Appreciate your "warm bias" posts - keep them coming. Just too bad that MAN departure regime last spring didn't include my region (sigh). I could've used it, lol.

[bud2380]

1 hour ago, bud2380 said:

Looking at the extended, we are going to be on a houseboat on July 17-19th and am hoping for nice warm weather, but not oppressively hot.  The GFS and Euro are miles apart.  The GFS is seasonably cool while the Euro has a major heat wave.  Below is early afternoon on the 17th.  I'll be in northeast Iowa right up by the Iowa/MN/WI borders.  GFS has heat indices around 80, the Euro around 100.  

 

 

 

If I had waited until the 12z run of the GFS I would've said both models are in agreement.  The GFS has completely flip flopped and has joined the Euro with oppressive conditions in the extended. 

[Hoosier]

11 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

If I had waited until the 12z run of the GFS I would've said both models are in agreement.  The GFS has completely flip flopped and has joined the Euro with oppressive conditions in the extended. 

Both the 12z GFS and 00z Euro (12z Euro running right now) have a 600+ dm ridge as far north as Minnesota.  600 dm ridges are rare in general, but I can't recall seeing one as far north as Minnesota before.  Would have to check the RAOB records around there to see what the record heights are.  The hotter plume of 850 mb temps looks to be on the western periphery of that ridge core though.

[Black Hole]

39 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Both the 12z GFS and 00z Euro (12z Euro running right now) have a 600+ dm ridge as far north as Minnesota.  600 dm ridges are rare in general, but I can't recall seeing one as far north as Minnesota before.  Would have to check the RAOB records around there to see what the record heights are.  The hotter plume of 850 mb temps looks to be on the western periphery of that ridge core though.

I'm pretty confident as well that has never happened. I think the global record is something like 602.7 dm so it gets pretty close to that too. 

[Hoosier]

21 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

I'm pretty confident as well that has never happened. I think the global record is something like 602.7 dm so it gets pretty close to that too. 

Do you know of any model website that shows the max value at a given forecast hour?  I used to see that on one of the model sites but I can't remember which one.

[Hoosier]

Per the RAOB archive, the record 500 mb height for the Minneapolis area (MPX now, and STC prior) is 598 dm, which has happened on a few dates, most recently 8/22/2023.

[Black Hole]

31 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Do you know of any model website that shows the max value at a given forecast hour?  I used to see that on one of the model sites but I can't remember which one.

I think this one will work, at least till it ages out since it references today's runs.
https://polarwx.com/models/?model=gfs&base=record_500hght&background=plain_ocean&state=states_brown&country=countries_brown&proj=conus&archive=false&run=2026070712

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

I think this one will work, at least till it ages out since it references today's runs.
https://polarwx.com/models/?model=gfs&base=record_500hght&background=plain_ocean&state=states_brown&country=countries_brown&proj=conus&archive=false&run=2026070712

I'm talking about where it actually plots the max value and shows it, e.g. 6014m or 601.4dm.

[bud2380]

Now the 12z Euro has backed off and is much cooler for northeast Iowa and the northern/eastern extent of the heat wave for the weekend of the 17th-19th.

 

[Hoosier]

9 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Now the 12z Euro has backed off and is much cooler for northeast Iowa and the northern/eastern extent of the heat wave for the weekend of the 17th-19th.

 

Euro still builds the ridge in nicely around the 13th-15th though.  Would stand to reason that would be the higher confidence period since it comes first.

[bud2380]

6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Euro still builds the ridge in nicely around the 13th-15th though.  Would stand to reason that would be the higher confidence period since it comes first.

I'm focusing on the later period, because that's when my vacation is.  

[summerrules]

1 hour ago, bud2380 said:

Now the 12z Euro has backed off and is much cooler for northeast Iowa and the northern/eastern extent of the heat wave for the weekend of the 17th-19th.

 

The ridge has been trending significantly farther east over the past several runs, (just like the previous one which set records in the East). If that trend continues, it could prolong the heat in this region. I'd also be surprised to see a ridge that strong get squashed that easily if the 600 dm heights verify.

[Hoosier]

I think CPC kind of messed up with that huge zone of equal chances on July temps in the Midwest/Lakes.  Here's where we stand now, along with the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks, which takes us through the first 3 weeks of July.  In order for the month to not end up being warmer than average, the final 10 days would have to be cooler than average (and maybe significantly cooler than average, depending on what the positive temp anomalies are up until then)

 

 

[OttumwaSnomow]

On 7/6/2026 at 7:11 AM, Hawkeye said:

I wish we could have received more rain in early July.  I got much less (1.15") than many locations across Iowa did, and now we have a long, dry (maybe hot, too) period coming up.

I have just .58" in July! All the soaking, flooding rains stayed to my north, just as the worst rain was in missouri in June and west of me before that! Thankful for the beautiful rains so far this season, but it is just crazy how heavy rains  can avoid this county!

[westMJim]

Good morning!  With clear skies and a calm wind, the overnight low has dropped to 64 here in my yard with a DP of 59.  Today looks to be very warm with highs in the upper 80’s there is a slight chance of a shower tonight with a low around 70.  Tomorrow there is a chance for showers with highs in the mid 80’s the shower chance continues tomorrow night with a low in the mid 60’s.  Friday through Tuesday it looks to warm up with highs going from the mid to upper 80’s warming up to the low 90’s lows should range from the mid 60’s to around 70. Friday through Tuesday look dry.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 86/60 there were 8 CDD’s there was no rainfall and no significant weather events were reported. For today the average H/L is 83/62 the record high of 101 was in 1936 the coolest high of 68 was in 2015 the record low of 46 was in 1984 the warmest low of 76 was in 1936 and 1928. The most rainfall of 3.38” was in 1992. Last year the H/L was 84/59.

Some weather history for July. In 1936 July 8^th was the 2^nd day of the most impressive heat wave at not only Grand Rapids but also many other locations. Here in Grand Rapids on July 7^th the high reached 98 and on July 8^th and 9^th it reached 101 on the 10^th it reached 102. It cooled down to a high of 99 on the 11^th when there was a trace of rainfall then back up to 106 on the 12^th the record hottest day officially at Grand Rapids on the 13^th with a high of 108. A little cooler on the 14^th with a high of 102.  A  major cool down on the 15th with a high of only 86 with 0.11” of rainfall then back up to 94 on the 16^th  a high of 93 on the 17^th and 91 on the 18^th Lows were in the mid to upper 70’s during the days with highs in the 100’s.

Some other weather history for July 8^th 1988, Thirty cities in the north central and northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Beckley, WV, equalled their all-time record with a high of 93 degrees. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms spawned seven tornadoes in Adams and Logan counties of eastern Colorado, and hail caused 2.3 million dollars damage in Adams, Logan and Washington counties. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

[Clinton]

Sunny and hot here today with a high of 93.  A few rain chances and some severe weather showing up in the area the next few days.

[Tom]

You know something, I'm starting to feel the same way @Hoosieris feeling about this coming Super Nino and the fact that there may well be some big time curve balls thrown out mid and late winter.  Just off pure gut feeling and my 2 cents from all the years of following climate models and the fact that most of them are now in agreement that a profound STJ coupled with a Stout signal for a -NAO got my eyes on the central and southern Tier of the U.S. as a whole.

Is this the Winter that our fans down in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, MO have been yearning for?  Don't forget about my area in the SW U.S./4 corners as I believe this region will be a Prime Target, whereby, a "balancing of nature" as they say.  In the grand scheme of things, the trend is for a much cool, at times, colder pattern is setting up for the South and especially as you get deeper into Winter.  

The normally "Warm" biased NMME has been trending wetter and colder for the S and C Plains...look out @MIKEKC @Clinton and our OK peeps @Black Hole @OKwx2k4.    Not to mention, but the CFSv2/Euro seasonal are both more or less showing something similar for late Fall into Winter.  Skier's delight for the Sierra's and Rockies this coming winter season.   My peep's in the Valley of the Sun are likely to experience something we haven't been able to witness in a very long time.  Maybe the late 90's come to mind when stronger Nino's were common?  I remember as a kid growing up in Chicago the warmer winters in the 90's and seeing California getting pounced on TWC. 

Here are some maps hot off the press from the latest NMME run...

NOV...

 

DEC...

 

JAN...

 

FEB...

 

DEC - FEB Precip....

[chescowxman]

Yesterday's high here in East Nantmeal was only 72.7 this set a new low maximum temperature for the date set back in 2005 of 73.7. Another below normal temperature day today with highs not far from 80 degrees. Shower chances increase tomorrow afternoon and again on Friday into Friday night. Temperatures remain near normal through the weekend before warming a few degrees above with highs by the middle of next week in the mid to upper 80's. Does not look like any return of 90 degree plus reading across the county for the foreseeable future.

[hawkstwelve]

Some pretty large differences between the 00z EPS and GEFS for long range temps east of the Rockies, mainly owing to differences in ridge axis. Both have the base position near the 4 corners but EPS extends the axis to the NNE while the GEFS has the axis going into the NW. It'll be interesting to see which solution wins out.



View map on CartoSky

[bud2380]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Some pretty large differences between the 00z EPS and GEFS for long range temps east of the Rockies, mainly owing to differences in ridge axis. Both have the base position near the 4 corners but EPS extends the axis to the NNE while the GEFS has the axis going into the NW. It'll be interesting to see which solution wins out.



View map on CartoSky

The Euro and GFS are miles apart on temps, crazy difference.  Euro has overnight lows on the morning of the 18th in the upper 70s to low 80s in many areas, the GFS has as low as 50 in the same area.

 

 

[Hoosier]

And from the "what the hell" files, there was a 2.9 earthquake in Lake Michigan northeast of Evanston, IL at 2:38 pm.  Looks like some folks felt it.

 

[summerrules]

2 hours ago, bud2380 said:

The Euro and GFS are miles apart on temps, crazy difference.  Euro has overnight lows on the morning of the 18th in the upper 70s to low 80s in many areas, the GFS has as low as 50 in the same area.

 

 

The GFS is a clear outlier for that time period compared to every other model. Toss it.

[summerrules]

4 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Some pretty large differences between the 00z EPS and GEFS for long range temps east of the Rockies, mainly owing to differences in ridge axis. Both have the base position near the 4 corners but EPS extends the axis to the NNE while the GEFS has the axis going into the NW. It'll be interesting to see which solution wins out.



View map on CartoSky

AIFS-ENS has had an excellent performance this summer and is much more in line with the EPS. Just saying.

[Black Hole]

Looks like at least a chance of rain here the next few days, with Saturday into Sunday being the best chance. On the other hand it doesn't look like a lot. So it'll probably mostly just end up hot and humid. Oh well, this time of year sucks no matter what, but within 2 months we will already be on the downhill towards fall and winter. 

[Grizzcoat]

Not wanting to go into the climate change deal- just stating a fact from 1936. 

On this date in 1936, 55.6% of the U.S. was ≥90°F and nearly a quarter of the country was ≥100°F. At least one location in each state except for Oregon reached the 90° mark, while an incredible 40 states reached the triple digits.

It was:

• 100° in LA, MA, NC, and UT

• 101° in AL, SC, TX, and VT

• 102° in DE and GA

• 103° in CT and TN

• 104° in AZ, AR, MS, and MT

• 105° in CA, MD, OK, and WI

• 106° in NY and WY

• 107° in CO, IA, KS, MI, and VA

• 108° in IL, KY, and MO

• 109° in NE, NV, NJ, and OH

• 110° in IN, MN, and WV

• 111° in PA

• 115° in ND and SD

[Grizzcoat]

Maybe we need separate forum for this (Greatest Weather Records of All-Time) -- but I find that ND has an all time max temp (121) higher than that of TX and OK( 120)  to be nuts. Only 4 states have recorded a higher max temp than that of ND--(CA,AZ,NV ,NM) -- When you factor in ND all time min is -60F-- it's the Siberia of North America and one of the most extreme climos in the world.