July 2026 Observations & Discussions

[Clinton]

A line of severe thunderstorms producing heavy rain and wind is moving through this morning.  Another soaker could be on the way this evening. 

[MI Storm]

7 minutes ago, Clinton said:

A line of severe thunderstorms producing heavy rain and wind is moving through this morning.  Another soaker could be on the way this evening. 

Was a heck of a lightshow up here overnight.

[westMJim]

Good morning!  The overnight low here in my yard was 70 the showers that were to the north did not reach this area. At 7:30 AM the temperature here is 71 with a DP of 67. There are a few showers to the north of GR.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 88/63 there were 11 Cooling Degree Days, there was no rainfall  reported weather events were fog and haze. For today the average H/L is 83/62 the record high of 101 was in 1936 the coolest high of 64 was in 1956 the record low of 48 was in 1942 and 1961 the warmest low of 78 was in 1936. The most rainfall of 1.34” was in 1926.  Last year the H/L was 86/69 and there was 0.15” of rainfall.

Some weather history for July 9^th 1987, Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Michigan. A tornado near Munising, MI, destroyed part of a commercial dog kennel, and one of the missing dogs was later found unharmed in a tree top half a mile away. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988, Twenty-three cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Alpena, MI, and Buffalo, NY, suffered through their sixth straight day of record heat. The percentage of total area in the country in the grips of severe to extreme drought reached 43 percent, the fourth highest total of record. The record of 61 percent occurred during the summer of 1934. (The National Weather Summary)

 

 

[westMJim]

Here is some interesting information on the upcoming winter with the expected very strong El Nino. I will just post the link and let you read it over as there is a lot there.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/early-forecast-data-el-nino-polar-vortex-disruption-united-states-canada-europe-winter-2026-2027

[chescowxman]

A flood watch is in effect through midnight for the potential of some heavy rain. Some isolated spots could see the rain fall at 1" to 2" per hour. No doubt with our rain deficit let's hope we all see some beneficial rain today! Additional shower chances tomorrow before we start to clear out on Saturday. Today will be our 4th straight day with below normal temperatures this should continue through the weekend before we warm to normal on Tuesday in the mid-80's and above normal with near 90 by Wednesday. It looks like great weather for the All-Star Game in Philly next week.

[Hoosier]

We're really gonna do this roided up death ridge, huh

If you want relief from the heat, go to Panama City.

[Hoosier]

MPX not really buying the Euro though.

 

For this weekend, the well advertised and potentially record
breaking h5 high begins building in. Those height rises Saturday and
Sunday will squash any precipitation chances and begin sending
thermometers up into the 90s. By Monday and Tuesday next week, even
ensemble means show h5 heights exceeding 600dm in southern MN. In
the STC/MPX upper air climate record (1948-present), the max
observed h5 height is 598dm. The last time we got there was August
of 2023 when the high was...98 degrees. So this will be a hot
airmass that builds in next week, just how hot is still uncertain,
especially as the h5 heights start to recede Wednesday. However,
current soil moisture conditions are not bone dry thanks to recent
frequent rains. In addition, we`re now entering the peak
evapotranspiration season for the corn crop (welcome to corn sweat
season!). These two factors will likely make it tough to reach the
heights of the top end ensemble members (highs of 100 to 105), but
it will still be uncomfortably warm. As for when we`ll see relief
from the heat, both the GEFS and EPS mean highs for Wednesday-Friday
have been trending warmer, so unless we can manage to work some
convective complexes this far south mid-late next week (which looks
hard to do given our capping and how far north the storm track
recedes), which means we`re probably looking at the weekend of the
18th and 19th before we start seeing some relief from the heat. See
the climate section below for a cautionary note about all those 100s
you see models (looking at you ECMWF) cranking out next week.

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 433 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

With the heat dome building in, we`re seeing many a model and
ensemble members throw 100s around for highs like it`s no big deal.
However, we`re going to just put a word of caution about putting 100
in the forecast based on 100 degree climatology in the Twin Cities.
The official Twin Cities climate record going back to 1871. In those
155 years, we have met or exceeded 100 degrees only 67 times, with
only 6 of those coming since 2000. In the last 50 years multiple 100
degree days in a year has happened only twice, 1988 (4 days) and
2012 (2 days). With it`s 00z run, the ECMWF cranked out highs of 99,
100, 101, 105, 103, and 100 for Monday through Saturday next
week. This would be something we have only observed once, in
1936. Given how rare 100 degree days are, especially if you
ignore what happened during the dust bowl in the 1930s (I really
wonder how people survived summers in the 1930s without AC, the
heat was absolutely brutal that decade!), we`re skeptical about
some of the high end forecasts (like that of the 00z ECMWF).
With that said, we will likely see several days with highs above
90, with this level of heat being dangerous for anyone that has
to be out working in it.

[Tom]

JMA Weeklies looking pretty nice around here and for most of the sub if you like wet and seasonal/slightly BN Temps to close out JUL.

 

Week 2...

Temp/Precip...Pocket of cool in the Midwest/OV..

 

 

Week 3-4....NE PAC Ridge fires up and downstream trough locks up...

Temp/Precip...large area of normal to BN temps over the eastern half of the CONUS.  Quite wet overall.

 

 

[Clinton]

21 minutes ago, Tom said:

JMA Weeklies looking pretty nice around here and for most of the sub if you like wet and seasonal/slightly BN Temps to close out JUL.

 

Week 2...

Temp/Precip...Pocket of cool in the Midwest/OV..

 

 

Week 3-4....NE PAC Ridge fires up and downstream trough locks up...

Temp/Precip...large area of normal to BN temps over the eastern half of the CONUS.  Quite wet overall.

 

 

I'll take these normal summer temps as long as I can.  The LRC would suggest a strong heat wave for the middle of the country the first 2 weeks of August. 

The monsoon looks active for ya the next couple of weeks.  Hopefully you get that nice gust of rain cooled air several times to cool you off.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

I'll take these normal summer temps as long as I can.  The LRC would suggest a strong heat wave for the middle of the country the first 2 weeks of August. 

The monsoon looks active for ya the next couple of weeks.  Hopefully you get that nice gust of rain cooled air several times to cool you off.

Yes, I'm pretty excited about it...my grid has daily chances of rain starting Sun and through next week.  Keep it coming!

 

[Stacsh]

I miss cool summer nights.   This new climate sucks.   Too much moisture coming off the ocean and agriculture.   It’s a swamp even on a clear night.   

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

I miss cool summer nights.   This new climate sucks.   Too much moisture coming off the ocean and agriculture.   It’s a swamp even on a clear night.   

It helps when there's wind, but unfortunately there isn't always wind.  Was out at around 7 pm when the dewpoint was in the mid 70s but the wind was almost dead calm, and even after having a lot of days this summer with dews like that, it still felt pretty darn uncomfortable.  

[westMJim]

Good morning!  The overnight low here in my yard and current temperature is 68 was a DP of 66.  Today and Saturday look to be very warm summer days with highs in the upper 80’s  Sunday could see highs around 90 lows should be in the mid to upper 60’s.  Monday through Thursday look to be very warm to hot with highs in the lower 90’s and lows in the upper 60’s to low 90’s it looks to be dry.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 86/66 there were 11 CDD’s and a trace of rainfall was recorded. Some weather events were thunder, light rain, fog and haze. For today the average H/L is 83/63 the record high of 102 was in 1936 the coolest high of 67 was in 1945 the record low of 45 was in 1898 and 1963 the warmest low of 78 was in 1936. The most rainfall of 1.48” was in 1942. Last year the H/L was 85/63.

Some weather history for July 10^th 1913, The mercury hit 134 degrees at Greenland Ranch in Death Valley, CA, the hottest reading of record for the North American continent. Sandstorm conditions accompanied the heat. The high the previous day was 129 degrees, following a morning low of 93 degrees. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1980, The temperature in downtown Kansas City, MO, hit 109 degrees, following a sultry overnight low of 89 degrees. The daily low of 89 degrees was the warmest of record for Kansas City, and overall it was the hottest July day of record. It was the seventh of a record seventeen consecutive days of 100 degree heat, and the mean temperature for the month of 90.2 degrees was also an all-time record for Kansas City. Here in Michigan, 1996 Cool weather prevails with Muskegon setting a record low temperature of 44 degrees.

[Clinton]

Another line of morning severe thunderstorms moving in.  So far my July total is 1.7 inches, we'll see what I add to that today.

[Tom]

So which model is going to win the LR battle for @bud2380trip 17th-19th???  GFS or the EURO or the EURO AI???   Lets go USA!!!

[chescowxman]

After our heavy rain across much of Southern Chester County yesterday today will feature some additional shower chances both today and tomorrow with a slow-moving cold front. High temperatures today will be near normal in the low to mid 80's. A bit below normal over the weekend before we warm to the upper 80's on Tuesday and near 90 degrees both Wednesday and Thursday.

[Clinton]

53 minutes ago, Tom said:

So which model is going to win the LR battle for @bud2380trip 17th-19th???  GFS or the EURO or the EURO AI???   Lets go USA!!!

Looks like the Euro went cooler like the GFS.  GFS for the win.  

 

[Clinton]

It looks like some strong storms this evening could make it into the KC area.  Storms forming along the Kansas Nebraska boarder are intensifying quickly.  Even a low tornado threat.

[Stacsh]

So much for a cool wet El Niño summer in the Great Lakes/Midwest.   The climates gone crazy.  The norms aren’t norms anymore.   Throw analogs out the window.  

[westMJim]

Good morning!  The overnight low here in my yard and current temperature is 66 with a DP of 60.  Today and Sunday look to be sunny and very warm with highs in the upper 80’s nighttime lows should drop down into the low to mid 60’s. Monday to Wednesday look to be on rather hot side with highs in low to mid 90’s and lows in mostly in the upper 60’s Thursday and Friday look to be a little cooler with highs in the upper 80’s upper 60’s There is no mention of any rain for the next 7 days so some more great summer weather.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 87/67 there were 12 CDD’s and there was no rainfall. Reported weather conditions were fog with visibility around ¼ mile. For today the average H/L is 83/63 the record high of 99 was in 1936 the coolest high of 66 was in 2003 the  record low of 43 was in 1945 the warmest low of 78 was in 1936. The most rainfall of 2.72” was in 1922.  Last year the H/L was 84/66 and there was 0.12” of rainfall.

Some weather history for July 11^th, 1987, Early morning thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 90 mph at Parkston, SD, and wind gusts to 87 mph at Buffalo, MN. Later in the day strong thunderstorm winds at Howard WI collapsed a circus tent injuring 44 persons. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989, Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather from North Dakota to Indiana. Thunderstorms in North Dakota produced tennis ball size hail at Carson. Thunderstorms in Indiana produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Fort Wayne. Five cities in the Southern Atlantic Coast Region reported record high temperatures for the date, including Lakeland, FL, with a reading of 100 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Here in Michigan, 1945, Muskegon falls to 40 degrees, setting a record low for the date. This is also the second coldest temperature for the month of July at Muskegon, just a degree warmer than the 39 degrees on July 2, 2001. In 1957, Thunderstorms struck West Michigan with heavy rain and high winds. There was widespread flooding of streets, with some road washouts. The 3.19 inches of rain at Lansing made this the wettest July day of the 20th century there. Many trees were blown over by thunderstorm winds and lightning struck a TV antenna in Grand Rapids, burning out the transmission line.

 

 

[chescowxman]

Rain chances increase again later this afternoon with the best chances between 3pm to 8pm. A couple beautiful days on tap both Sunday and Monday with temperatures slightly cooler than average for mid-July. We start a solid warm up on Tuesday and may see widespread 90+ temps for one day on Wednesday. Still hot but "only" in the upper 80's both Thursday and Friday.

[BMT]

81 degrees and dew point has dropped all morning to 61.  Absolutely perfect day

[summerrules]

On 7/10/2026 at 9:43 AM, Clinton said:

Looks like the Euro went cooler like the GFS.  GFS for the win.  

 

or not

[OttumwaSnomow]

After 18 days with just .58" on Friday pm I got a great rain!

2.46" on friday!

I saw the slight spin on short term models  2 days previous. Progged to ride just south of  iowa/mo border during daylight friday. I knew this could be a good setup!  But nws and local media barely said boo! 20 to 30% by most outlets.

Scattered cells bubbled up moving ene along the mo border. Then at 4 pm a cell blow up right over my land!!! Not large but .52" in 20 min. Nearly stationary!  As soon as it nudged east it backbuilt over mby!  The whole thing blew up moving east to west, with the spin in the perfect location! Rained about 5 hrs.  Very heavy at times. One of my larger 1 day totals in years!  Very thankful with the heat coming!

[MXE]

41 minutes ago, summerrules said:

or not

The entire 12z Euro run is just insane. Unrelenting heat for most of the country, hope it doesn't verify.

[Tom]

30 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

After 18 days with just .58" on Friday pm I got a great rain!

2.46" on friday!

I saw the slight spin on short term models  2 days previous. Progged to ride just south of  iowa/mo border during daylight friday. I knew this could be a good setup!  But nws and local media barely said boo! 20 to 30% by most outlets.

Scattered cells bubbled up moving ene along the mo border. Then at 4 pm a cell blow up right over my land!!! Not large but .52" in 20 min. Nearly stationary!  As soon as it nudged east it backbuilt over mby!  The whole thing blew up moving east to west, with the spin in the perfect location! Rained about 5 hrs.  Very heavy at times. One of my larger 1 day totals in years!  Very thankful with the heat coming!

I saw that cell and thought to myself, “I wonder if that’s where @OttumwaSnomow lives???”  Perfect outcome for you.

[Black Hole]

Some decent storms here today. I am coming in on 2" with stratiform rain continuing. Some spots were over 3". It does look a little cooler the next few days, but still pretty hot. 

[westMJim]

Good morning!  The overnight low here in my yard and current temperature is 64 with a DP of 56.  Today through Thursday look to be sunny and on the hot side, highs will be in low to mid 90’s lows should be in the upper 60’s to low 70’s.  It looks to be dry at least until Friday.  With a chance of showers Friday and Saturday look to be a little cooler with highs in the upper 80’s and lows still in the upper 60’s.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 87/63 there were 10 CDD’s no rainfall the highest wind gust was 23 MPH out of the NE. There were no significant weather events reported.  For today the average H/L is 83/63 the record high of 106 was in 1936 the coolest high of 71 was in 1917 the record low of 43 was in 1898 the warmest low of 74 was in 1936 and 1894. The most rainfall of 1.68” was in 2023.  Last year the H/L was 84/73.

Some weather events for July 12^th 1951,  The Kaw River flood occurred. The month of June that year was the wettest of record for the state of Kansas, and during the four days preceding the flood much of eastern Kansas and western Missouri received more than ten inches of rain. Flooding in the Midwest claimed 41 lives, left 200 thousand persons homeless, and caused a billion dollars property damage. Kansas City was hardest hit. The central industrial district sustained 870 million dollars property damage. (The Kansas City Weather Almanac) 1987, Cool air invaded the High Plains Region. Eight cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Sheridan, WY, with a reading of 37 degrees. Thunderstorms developing along the cold front in the central U.S. produced 6.5 inches of rain at Fort Dodge, IA, and 2.5 inches in one hour at St. Joseph MO. (The National Weather Summary)

 

[chescowxman]

A great couple of days ahead with temperatures running slightly cooler than average for the dates before a warmup gets underway on Tuesday. Some of our cooler valley spots may see low temperatures in the 50's by tomorrow morning. Our hottest day and best chance for widespread 90's across the County will be Wednesday. We cool a couple of degrees from there to close out the work week. Not much chance of any showers through at least Friday.

[summerrules]

HRRR already has ORD at 97 by 18z Tuesday, so 100 is definitely in play. Not sure why LOT is only going with 94, that seems way too low. With warmer thermals and lower DPs promoting better mixing, I'd be shocked if we don't beat the early July heatwave. TWC's 99° forecast for ORD seems much closer to reality.

[Hoosier]

24 minutes ago, summerrules said:

HRRR already has ORD at 97 by 18z Tuesday, so 100 is definitely in play. Not sure why LOT is only going with 94, that seems way too low. With warmer thermals and lower DPs promoting better mixing, I'd be shocked if we don't beat the early July heatwave. TWC's 99° forecast for ORD seems much closer to reality.

LOT may be too low.  In fact there's a good chance they are, but I'm a little skeptical of the dewpoint mix out into the 50s on the HRRR for multiple reasons.  Heading into peak evapotranspiration season in the Midwest, plus it hasn't exactly been that dry around Chicago metro lately, plus the very light low level flow on Tuesday does not seem particularly conducive for very efficient mixing.  

[SE Nebraska wx]

Next 2 weeks look god awful 

[Black Hole]

Not much to be hopeful about here as we head into the hottest part of the year. A few rain chances, but mostly just hot, humid, and dry. 

[westMJim]

Good morning!  July 13,1936 was the hottest day in Grand Rapids history when the official high reached 108.  The overnight low here in my yard and current temperature is 67 with a DP of 60.  Today through Friday look to be mostly sunny and hot with highs in the low to upper 90’s in fact Tuesday and Wednesday have highs forecasted at or around 97 if indeed we reach 97 or better at Grand Rapids it would be the hottest it has been since 2012. Lows look to be in the upper 60’s to low 70’s so there will be some minor relief towards early morning. It will also be dry with the next chance of rain not until Saturday.  

Detailed Forecast

Today

Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny and hot, with a high near 93. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 9 mph in the morning.

Tonight

Mostly clear, with a low around 72. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Tuesday

Sunny and hot, with a high near 97. Heat index values as high as 101. Light west wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph.

Tuesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 72. West wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

Wednesday

Sunny and hot, with a high near 97. Light west northwest wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph.

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 69.

Thursday

Sunny and hot, with a high near 94.

Thursday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 70.

Friday

Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 92.

Friday Night

A chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70.

Saturday

A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89.

Saturday Night

A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly clear, with a low around 67.

Sunday

A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 87/62 there were 10 CDD’s there was no rainfall and no significant weather events were reported. For today the average H/L is 83/63 the record high for the date and all time record high is 108 in 1936 the coolest high of 59 was in 1964 the record low of 46 was in 1898 the warmest low of 79 was in 1936. The most rainfall of 1.43” was in 1981. Last year the H/L was 84/63.

Some weather history for July 13^th 1980, Afternoon highs of 108 degrees at Memphis, TN, 108 degrees at Macon, GA, and 105 degrees at Atlanta, GA, established all-time records for those three cities. The high of 110 degrees at Newington, GA, was just two degrees shy of the state record. (The Weather Channel) 1980, Afternoon highs of 108 degrees at Memphis, TN, 108 degrees at Macon, GA, and 105 degrees at Atlanta, GA, established all-time records for those three cities. The high of 110 degrees at Newington, GA, was just two degrees shy of the state record. (The Weather Channel)

 

 

[Tom]

Good Day!  Sky Harbor officially tacked on 0.01" of rain overnight and that is the first official precip tally of the 2026 Monsoon Season.  It's going to be a banner season around here based on what I've been observing around here since the summer began.  The models continue to paint a bright future and I do see nature delivering as the set up looks prime time.

 

[Tom]

Ya, it's about as humid as it gets around here...DP has hit the 70F mark at PHX...current reading of 82F/70F!  Let's fire up some storms today.

 

[tStacsh]

I got into the office this morning, and thought.. What am I doing?    So I'm leaving at noon and not coming back until Thursday.   Heading to the lake house and the beach. 

[chescowxman]

Several of our valley locations this morning saw lows down into the 50's with the ridges remaining in lower 60's. The lowest I could find was 56.3 at the Warwick DEOS. Today will be our 6th below normal temperature day over the last 8 days. We turn that around tomorrow with highs well into the 80's with 90's in the valley spots. Widespread 90's on Wednesday before we back off several degrees by Thursday. So not many spots across Chesco will get to "enjoy" the so called "heat wave" this week. By next weekend we return to near normal temperatures with increasing chances of some showers.

[Clinton]

I've had some great summer weather over the weekend with sun and lower humidity.   Some rain chances showing up mid week along with some warmer temps.

[Hoosier]

Curiously, O'Hare is currently running 4 degrees ahead of Midway Airport despite having the same morning low temp and both places being mostly sunny.  Hard to figure.