El Nino + Negative PDO

[Brennan]

It appears we are in a strong Negative PDO phase amidst one of the strongest El Nino’s in decades. What is everyone making of this for the PNW this winter? Snow Wizard???

[StormchaserChuck1]

23-24 is the best analog. Decadal -PDO was near peak during that Super Nino. 

72-73 is another analog, but we have diverged on the west coast from something so far away recently

[iFred]

On 7/4/2026 at 10:57 AM, Brennan said:

It appears we are in a strong Negative PDO phase amidst one of the strongest El Nino’s in decades. What is everyone making of this for the PNW this winter? Snow Wizard???

On one hand if we hit the high end of things then the whole analog story is rewritten. On the other hand, I've already shifted my model riding expectations to chasing fantasy windstorms.

[Brennan]

I haven’t been paying attention to the Pacific index list since I moved to Florida. I didn’t realize the PDO has been so negative the past 5 years. I’m in alaska fishing right now and the water temp in the Aleutian Islands is so cold right now. It’s great for our refer system. A lot easier to chill down to 35* when the water temp is 48. One year it wad 64* up here I think around 2015-2016.