August 2026 Observations and Discussions

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

It has been like pulling teeth trying to get a sustained -NAO in winter for years now.  I'll believe it when I see it.

I agree with that sentiment, but when Global models begin to all simultaneously "see" something brewing up for Winter, it's interesting.

The latest Euro shows much more high lat blocking from Autumn to Winter...I'm starting to see more blocking in NW NAMER this run compared to last run.  Something to monitor if it is a "head fake" or more of a long term trend.

Autumn...

Winter...given the strength of the upcoming El Nino, this may be the best 500mb run for the winter whereby winter weather fans could see as a possible stormy scenario for much of our SUB.  Much better run for the Lakes in terms of precip for sure compared to the CFSv2 dry signal.  Meantime, the Heartland looks to be the place to be for our SUB or anywhere in the west/southwest.

 

[Tom]

@OttumwaSnomowreel in the last wave!

[Clinton]

Flood watch issued for my location.  The HRRR and 3km NAM have both trended towards some heavy rainfall tonight. 

[Grizzcoat]

Kind of funny--- 

[OttumwaSnomow]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

@OttumwaSnomowreel in the last wave!

Wow!!

2.94" officially in 12 hours 4 am until 4 pm.

Some brief downpours but  moderate rain all day!!! Occasional thunder.

On this system the models did well. Why? A  stalling west to east cold from near mo/ia border never fails. It nudged north today thus the rain!

It was fairly widespread in wapello county Iowa.

2026 is bringing the bacon to mby!  Some deficits nearby but I am no doubt closing in on 30".

[Hawkeye]

Just 0.13" of rain here from one brief heavy shower.  Models show more rain chances every few days over the next couple weeks.

[westMJim]

Good morning.  Here in the NW Grand Rapids area, I recorded 0.92” of rainfall yesterday and overnight. Note the official rainfall at GRR about 20 miles to the SE of my location there was only 0.02” of rainfall. At 7AM it is partly  cloudy and 66 here in NW Grand Rapids.  The next 7 days now have trended a little cooler with several chances of showers and maybe a rumble or two of thunder. Highs have now trended down to the lower 80’s and lows should stay from around 60 to the mid 60’s

Detailed Forecast for Grand Rapids

Today

A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 2pm and 5pm. Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Calm wind becoming west southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight

A 10 percent chance of showers before 7pm. Patchy fog after 5am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Light and variable wind.

Friday

Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 82. Calm wind becoming west southwest 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.

Friday Night

A slight chance of showers between 2am and 5am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. Southwest wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday

A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. West northwest wind 6 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.

Saturday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 62.

Sunday

A 30 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 82.

Sunday Night

A chance of showers before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am, then a chance of showers after 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65.

Monday

Showers likely before 8am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 8am and 2pm, then showers likely after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82.

Monday Night

Showers likely, mainly before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63.

Tuesday

A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 80.

Tuesday Night

A chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 60.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.

The climate summery for August 5^th at Grand Rapids. The official H/L was 78/68 there were 8CDD’s there was officially 0.02” of rainfall.  Reported weather events thunderstorm, light rain, and fog.  For today the official H/L is 82/62 the record high of 102 was in 1918 the coolest high of 65 was in 2023 the record low of 46 was in 1948 and 1994 the warmest low of 75 was in 1918 and 1916. The most rainfall of 1.40” was in 1993.  Last year the H/L was 85/62.

Some weather history for August 6^th 1918, Unusually hot weather began to overspread the Atlantic Coast States, from the Carolinas to southern New England. The temp- erature soared to an all-time record high of 106 degrees at Washington D.C., and Cumberland and Keedysville hit 109 degrees to establish a state record for Maryland. Temperatures were above normal east of the Rockies that month, with readings much above normal in the Lower Missouri Valley. Omaha NE reached 110 degrees. (David Ludlum) 1987, Afternoon thunderstorms deluged Milwaukee, WI, with 6.84 inches of rain, including more than five inches in two hours, breaking all previous rainfall records for the city. Floodwaters were four feet deep at the Milwaukee County Stadium, and floodwaters filled the basement of the main terminal at the airport. Flooding caused 5.9 million dollars damage, and claimed the life of one person. Death Valley, CA, reported a morning low of 97 degrees. A midday thunderstorm deluged Birmingham AL with nearly six inches of rain in one hour. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Here in Michigan 1918, Southwest Lower Michigan was in the grip of an extreme heat wave. Both Grand Rapids and Lansing set their highest temperature on record for the month of August at 102 degrees. At Lansing, it also ties the record for their all-time highest temperature. While on the east side of the state the temperature soared to 104 degrees in Detroit while Saginaw recorded 103. Both are the record maximum temperatures for the month of August.

 

 

 

[Clinton]

Heavy thunderstorms produced 1.2 inches so far over mby.  Higher rainfall totals reported just south of KC.

[Tom]

We had another robust Dust Storm overnight around 1-2am that blew through the valley up from the south from decaying storms over Tucson.  The models did quite badly indicating storms to fire up across the valley from outflows combing in the valley.  Maybe next time!  

[Tom]

As some have mentioned, this weekend into next week looks like a hyper active "Ring of Fire" over the same areas that pretty much got hit the past few days.  The later parts of the week and into the weekend look...dare I say, "Fall-ish" near the Upper MW/Lakes???

 

0z EURO...Check out 'dem DP's....ahhh, I can smell the bonfires!  This time, however, it'll be some good ol' back yard fires.  @james1976 I know you'll be firing it up and backyard grillin'!!!

[Tom]

@Clinton, my gut was leaning towards the idea of you being able to escape the Death Ridge and it appears that the boundary will push enough south and keep you out of the HEAT!  The Euro Op is playing catchup and the EURO AI...had the right "eye" on the blocking and cooler air pressing south.  I'm sure your stoked!

 

 

 

[chescowxman]

We have had quite a wet start to August with most spots seeing between 1.8" to around 3 inches of rain over the last 5 days. Some additional shower chances are possible later today and again on Friday night. We should finally dry out by Sunday. Early next week it starts hot with a chance for some of our valley locations to possibly reach 90 degrees both Monday and Tuesday. Could those be the last chances of a 90-degree reading till next spring?

[Clinton]

40 minutes ago, Tom said:

@Clinton, my gut was leaning towards the idea of you being able to escape the Death Ridge and it appears that the boundary will push enough south and keep you out of the HEAT!  The Euro Op is playing catchup and the EURO AI...had the right "eye" on the blocking and cooler air pressing south.  I'm sure your stoked!

 

 

 

Yes I am stoked to miss the heat, i dont likeit at all.  I feel bad for Oklahoma and Texas as they are about to get cooked!

[Tom]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

Yes I am stoked to miss the heat, i dont likeit at all.  I feel bad for Oklahoma and Texas as they are about to get cooked!

I concur!  This precip map just says it all...Euro Op & GFS no bueno!  I feel for you Texas and Oklahoma!

 

[Tom]

It's the JMA weeklies update today...Room for AN warmth to surge north and east for a period.

Week 2...

Temp/Precip...Blow Torch for our members in the central Plains!

 

 

 

Week 3-4...Pop goes the Western/NW NAMER Ridge...I see you trough off the So Cal coast...is nature "Drip, Drip, Dripping" signs of what is dialing up next LRC???  I think so.

 

 

Temp/Precip...Not a bad way to finish off Met Summer.  Wet and Wild from the West & SW into the Midwest!  I will say, however, the big ridge may get beaten down enough to provide relief end of August for our southern members.

 

[Hoosier]

LOT sent out an interesting update on the severe wx event of July 27.  They didn't confirm any additional tornadoes, but they added some more details.  The tornado that did the looping track in the southern suburbs of Chicago caused 12 injuries.  That seemed like an unusually high injury count to me considering that it was only an EF-1 (especially nowadays), so I did some research which ended up confirming that idea.  From 2020-2025, only 4 EF-1 tornadoes were documented with 10+ injuries in the entire United States!  And one of those four also occurred in northern IL -- the March 31, 2023 tornado that collapsed the roof of the Apollo Theatre in Belvidere.

[Iceresistance]

I absolutely hate this weather, 100s nonstop

[james1976]

12 hours ago, Tom said:

As some have mentioned, this weekend into next week looks like a hyper active "Ring of Fire" over the same areas that pretty much got hit the past few days.  The later parts of the week and into the weekend look...dare I say, "Fall-ish" near the Upper MW/Lakes???

 

0z EURO...Check out 'dem DP's....ahhh, I can smell the bonfires!  This time, however, it'll be some good ol' back yard fires.  @james1976 I know you'll be firing it up and backyard grillin'!!!

You know it! Current long range has 70s/50s for the weekend of the 15th.

[Black Hole]

I haven't checked in for several days but it pretty much sucks so not much to say! It's been hot and it's going to stay hot. Maybe a shower tomorrow but not enough to put a dent in the now building drought. 

[westMJim]

Good morning.  Here in the NW Grand Rapids area I have cloudy skies and at 6AM a temperature of 69. Today looks to be partly cloudy and warm with highs in the mid 80’s tonight the low should be in the upper 60’s there is a slight chance of a shower or two today and tonight. Saturday also has a very slight chance of a shower with highs in the low 80’s and lows in the low 60’s. Sunday and Monday have a better chance of showers and maybe a rumble of thunder, The rest of the next 7 days also have some chance of showers it will be trending a little cooler with highs in the low 80’s then near 80 and by Thursday the mid 70’s Lows should be around 60 to the low 60’s.

Detailed Forecast for Grand Rapids

Today

A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 84. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 8 mph in the morning.

Tonight

A 10 percent chance of showers after 5am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. Southwest wind 3 to 6 mph.

Saturday

A 10 percent chance of showers before 8am. Mostly cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 81. West wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Saturday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 61. West northwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Sunday

A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 83. Light south wind becoming south southwest 6 to 11 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday Night

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 11pm, then showers likely between 11pm and 2am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday

A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday Night

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 2am, then a chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65.

Tuesday

A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 80.

Tuesday Night

A chance of showers before 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 61.

Wednesday

Partly sunny, with a high near 80.

Wednesday Night

A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60.

Thursday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.

Climate summery for August 6^th at Grand Rapids.  The official H/L was 79/68 there were 9 CDD’s and a trace of rainfall was recorded. Weather events were light rain and fog. For today the average H/L is 82/62 the record high of 98 was in 1918 the coolest high of 63 was in 1972 the record low of 46 was in 1976 the warmest low of 78 was in 1972. The most rainfall of 0.97” was in 1959. Last year the H/L was 89/67.

 

[Tom]

Not to shabby of a forecast for Chitown...I'd say perfect temps and remaining active...gardeners, growers, farmers all the like I'm sure are pretty happy with this weather.

[westMJim]

Here is a link to a update on the state of the ongoing El Nino.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/new-ocean-anomaly-super-el-nino-iod-strong-winter-2026-2027-pattern-forecast-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

 

 And here is a link to a article of interest that could be either good or bad depending on if you like or dislike winter.

Predictions for winter 2026: Strongest El Niño in 500 years could bring heavy rain and snow

Note the winter of 1877/78 is mentioned in the article.  That winter was known as the year without a winter.

[Hoosier]

It would be interesting to know what the actual return rate is for a Nino of this expected strength.  If it gets as strong as expected, there is nothing close to it in the past 150 years, as it would even beat 1877-1878 pretty handily.  So a 1 in 500+ year event may not be a bad guess.  

[Bellona]

Seeing reports of trees uprooted just north of Independence. Might be some hefty damage. 

[Tom]

@Hawkeye taking cover!

Quote

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
524 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

IAC105-113-072245-
/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0074.000000T0000Z-260807T2245Z/
Jones IA-Linn IA-
524 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN JONES AND NORTHEASTERN LINN COUNTIES...

At 523 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Langworthy, or near Anamosa, moving southeast at 45
mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and baseball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

 

[Tom]

Keep it rolling into early SEP???

 

[chescowxman]

I saw on the news one of the local weather folks mentioning we are about to see our 6th "Heatwave" which is a stat that defines a Heatwave of at least 3 consecutive days over 90 degrees. While the news always just sources the Philadelphia International Airport....out here where we live in Chester County only 1 station at Phoenixville has reported even 3 heatwaves this summer with all other stations only 1 or 2 "Heatwaves". As you can see below the frequency of heat waves here in Chester County has in reality been decreasing over the last 14 decades as the below chart which is normalized "per 100 station-years" because the number of active stations has grown sharply over time clearly shows.

[james1976]

The front moved through this afternoon with a light shower. Only picked up .08" but it lead to a beautiful evening. I grilled steaks for the wife, pets and myself. Now have a fire going. Currently 68° with clear skies and zero wind. Fall vibes!

[Clinton]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

Keep it rolling into early SEP???

 

I hope they miss on the below average precip for KC.  We haven't had a stormy September in years.

[Andie]

I’m with you Clinton. 
DfW is dry. We need rain.  

[Hoosier]

00z HRRR tries to pop some supercells around Chicago metro toward the end of the run.  Environment may be fairly volatile so definitely something to watch.  

[westMJim]

Good morning.  Here in the NW Grand Rapids area, I have cloudy skies and at 6AM a temperature of 72. Today will start off cloudy with clearing later in the day, Sunday and Monday look to have a chance of some strong thunderstorms, showers may linger into Tuesday.  Wednesday to look mostly sunny and cooler than it has been.

Detailed Forecast for Grand Rapids

Overnight

A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 72. South southwest wind around 6 mph.

Saturday

A 20 percent chance of showers before 11am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 82. West northwest wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Saturday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 59. West northwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Sunday

A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 5pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 83. Light south wind becoming south southwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph.

Sunday Night

Showers and thunderstorms likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 8pm. Low around 68. South southwest wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Monday

Showers likely before 8am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday Night

Showers likely, mainly after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Tuesday

A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80.

Tuesday Night

A chance of showers before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 81.

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 60.

Thursday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.

Thursday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.

Friday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.

Yesterday I put out a link to a update on the state of the ongoing El Nino.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/new-ocean-anomaly-super-el-nino-iod-strong-winter-2026-2027-pattern-forecast-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

 And here is a link to a article of interest that could be either good or bad depending on if you like or dislike winter.

Predictions for winter 2026: Strongest El Niño in 500 years could bring heavy rain and snow

Note the winter of 1877/78 is mentioned in the article.  That winter was known as the year without a winter.  

Well, I took a look at what the winter of 1877/78 was like at the two locations here in Michigan that have records for the years of 1877/78 they are Lansing and Detroit. While the winter of 1877/78 may have been known as the year without a winter that was not completely the case here in Michigan. Here are the monthly breakdowns for both locations from August 1877 to March 1878. 

Lansing August had a mean of 67.9 Detroit had a mean of 71.2. September Lansing had a mean of 62.1 Detroit 64.3. October Lansing had a mean of 50.4 Detroit 53.8. November Lansing had a mean of 34.2 there was 8.5” of snowfall, Detroit had a mean of 39.2 with 1” of snowfall. December Lansing had a mean of 36.1 a departure of +6.6 and just 2.5” of snowfall, Detroit had a mean of 38.1 a departure of +6.8 and had 1.8” of snowfall. January Lansing had a mean of 24.9 a departure of +1.0 and 14.4” of snowfall, Detroit had a mean of 27.3 and there was 23.1” of snowfall. February Lansing had a mean of 26.8 a departure of +0.9 and 6.4” of snowfall Detroit had a mean of 29.2 a departure of +1.2 and they had 17.4” of snowfall. March Lansing had a mean of 40.9 a departure of + 5.7 and there was 1” of snowfall, Detroit had a mean of 41.3 a departure of +4.1 and the snowfall total is missing. For the winter season of 1877/78 Lansing had 32.8” of snowfall Detroit had 43.4” of snowfall.

So it looks like here in Michigan while the winter of 1877/78 was mild there was a winter here that season.

 

[Tom]

8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

00z HRRR tries to pop some supercells around Chicago metro toward the end of the run.  Environment may be fairly volatile so definitely something to watch.  

Watching from a far, this has been a hellova season of severe storms across the Midwest.  I don't remember the last time Chicago had such an active Spring and Summer combined.  I'm sure you have looked into this before but it's usually one season or the other??? 

Nevertheless, I'll be sharing the storm action with you guys starting on Mon/Tue as the Monsoon fires with a bonafide placement of the Upper Level Ridge over the 4 corners region.

[Clinton]

Dang it! Gonna have to deal with the heat for several days.  It definitely could be worse, Oklahoma and Texas are really going to deal with it.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
200 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

KSZ057-060-MOZ039-040-043>046-053-054-082100-
/O.NEW.KEAX.XH.A.0003.260809T1700Z-260813T0100Z/
Miami-Linn KS-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-Cooper-Bates-
Henry-
Including the cities of La Cygne, Osawatomie, Butler, Belton,
Louisburg, Pleasanton, Mound City, Adrian, Rich Hill, Pleasant Hill,
Paola, Harrisonville, Windsor, Warrensburg, New Franklin, Sedalia,
Boonville, Marshall, Glasgow, Fayette, Raymore, and Clinton
200 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

...EXTREME HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Dangerously hot conditions with heat index values 105
  degrees or higher four days in a row possible.

* WHERE...In Kansas, Linn and Miami counties. In Missouri, Cooper,
  Howard, Pettis, Saline, Bates, Cass, Henry, and Johnson counties.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Heat related illnesses increase significantly during
  extreme heat and high humidity events.

[Tom]

@Clinton, talk about ridin' the edge of the HEAT DOME...Excessive Heat Watch issued a stones throw away to your south!

 

[Andie]

It’s hide under the. A/c time and pray it doesn’t break down.  Just awful conditions.  
we haven’t seen birds or animals in days.  
100* + ( Forecast for next 11 days).  

[chescowxman]

Our uncomfortably warm weather continues with additional chances of some showers and thunderstorms later today. Tomorrow looks to be the hottest day in this stretch with temperatures well into the 80's and even some 90's in more valley locations. Temperatures will remain above normal this week before falling back close to normal by Friday.

[Hoosier]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

Watching from a far, this has been a hellova season of severe storms across the Midwest.  I don't remember the last time Chicago had such an active Spring and Summer combined.  I'm sure you have looked into this before but it's usually one season or the other??? 

Nevertheless, I'll be sharing the storm action with you guys starting on Mon/Tue as the Monsoon fires with a bonafide placement of the Upper Level Ridge over the 4 corners region.

I can think of some years that had both an active spring and summer (like 2008 and 2023) but yeah, it seems like it's usually one or the other.  The amount of tornadic activity is what really stands out this year. 

[Hoosier]

6 hours ago, westMJim said:

Good morning.  Here in the NW Grand Rapids area, I have cloudy skies and at 6AM a temperature of 72. Today will start off cloudy with clearing later in the day, Sunday and Monday look to have a chance of some strong thunderstorms, showers may linger into Tuesday.  Wednesday to look mostly sunny and cooler than it has been.

Detailed Forecast for Grand Rapids

Overnight

A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 72. South southwest wind around 6 mph.

Saturday

A 20 percent chance of showers before 11am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 82. West northwest wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Saturday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 59. West northwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Sunday

A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 5pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 83. Light south wind becoming south southwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph.

Sunday Night

Showers and thunderstorms likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 8pm. Low around 68. South southwest wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Monday

Showers likely before 8am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday Night

Showers likely, mainly after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Tuesday

A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80.

Tuesday Night

A chance of showers before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 81.

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 60.

Thursday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.

Thursday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.

Friday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.

Yesterday I put out a link to a update on the state of the ongoing El Nino.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/new-ocean-anomaly-super-el-nino-iod-strong-winter-2026-2027-pattern-forecast-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

 And here is a link to a article of interest that could be either good or bad depending on if you like or dislike winter.

Predictions for winter 2026: Strongest El Niño in 500 years could bring heavy rain and snow

Note the winter of 1877/78 is mentioned in the article.  That winter was known as the year without a winter.  

Well, I took a look at what the winter of 1877/78 was like at the two locations here in Michigan that have records for the years of 1877/78 they are Lansing and Detroit. While the winter of 1877/78 may have been known as the year without a winter that was not completely the case here in Michigan. Here are the monthly breakdowns for both locations from August 1877 to March 1878. 

Lansing August had a mean of 67.9 Detroit had a mean of 71.2. September Lansing had a mean of 62.1 Detroit 64.3. October Lansing had a mean of 50.4 Detroit 53.8. November Lansing had a mean of 34.2 there was 8.5” of snowfall, Detroit had a mean of 39.2 with 1” of snowfall. December Lansing had a mean of 36.1 a departure of +6.6 and just 2.5” of snowfall, Detroit had a mean of 38.1 a departure of +6.8 and had 1.8” of snowfall. January Lansing had a mean of 24.9 a departure of +1.0 and 14.4” of snowfall, Detroit had a mean of 27.3 and there was 23.1” of snowfall. February Lansing had a mean of 26.8 a departure of +0.9 and 6.4” of snowfall Detroit had a mean of 29.2 a departure of +1.2 and they had 17.4” of snowfall. March Lansing had a mean of 40.9 a departure of + 5.7 and there was 1” of snowfall, Detroit had a mean of 41.3 a departure of +4.1 and the snowfall total is missing. For the winter season of 1877/78 Lansing had 32.8” of snowfall Detroit had 43.4” of snowfall.

So it looks like here in Michigan while the winter of 1877/78 was mild there was a winter here that season.

 

I haven't been able to find any maps of temps/precip from the winter of 1877-78, but just from reading some things, my sense is that the core of the warm anomalies were more toward the northern Plains.  

1877-78 did have a standout winter storm that affected areas around the Lakes on January 31-February 1.  Many areas weren't officially keeping snowfall records yet... but based on the areas that do have snowfall records, and using precip amounts as a proxy for areas that don't have snowfall data, it looks like a storm that produced 1-2 feet of snow from Detroit to Cleveland (heavier toward Cleveland) and probably about 6-10" back to Chicago and Milwaukee.  Temps were fairly mild so the 6-10" around Chicago/Milwaukee likely would've been entirely or almost entirely from the synoptic storm with any lake enhancement kept to a minimum.  

Here are a couple weather maps from January 31 and February 1, 1878.  It looks like a surface low ran into the TN valley and perhaps made it to the Ohio Valley before fading away, with a notable low on the east coast.

 

[Hoosier]

Massive plume of smoke will be spreading across the northern and central part of the country.  Fortunately it looks like most of it will remain aloft, except in the northwestern states.