8 hours ago, Tom said:

@Clinton, talk about ridin' the edge of the HEAT DOME...Excessive Heat Watch issued a stones throw away to your south!

 

Actually I'm in it just barely.  Looks like by Thursday it's out of here!

9 hours ago, Tom said:

@Clinton, talk about ridin' the edge of the HEAT DOME...Excessive Heat Watch issued a stones throw away to your south!

 

Going to be brutal under that heat dome next week, really thankful to be on the northern edge of it this time around. Local forecast has high temps in the mid and upper 70’s after Wednesday next week and lots of chances for much needed rainfall. 

It’s been a rainy/ stormy afternoon here today since about 2pm and so far I have picked up around 0.80” of rain… not bad for a 20% chance of storms. Feels like our stubborn dry and hot pattern is breaking here… FINALLY!!! (where’s our old friend SE Nebraska WX when we need him, LOL)

2 hours ago, Bryan1117 said:

Going to be brutal under that heat dome next week, really thankful to be on the northern edge of it this time around. Local forecast has high temps in the mid and upper 70’s after Wednesday next week and lots of chances for much needed rainfall. 

It’s been a rainy/ stormy afternoon here today since about 2pm and so far I have picked up around 0.80” of rain… not bad for a 20% chance of storms. Feels like our stubborn dry and hot pattern is breaking here… FINALLY!!! (where’s our old friend SE Nebraska WX when we need him, LOL)

If anything can break the cap up your way tomorrow look out.  Cape values over 5,000 in places.

101 F here today, with low 100s through Friday and then upper 90s. Maybe a little rain chance towards the weekend. 

New SPC day 1 outlook mentioned that higher probabilities may be needed.  

GFS is a little unhinged with the heat, but at least there is a bit of a signal for rain after about a week here. 

Good morning.  Here in the NW Grand Rapids area the skies are clear with a temperature of 58.  There is a chance of some heavy rain today, the rain could spill into Monday and Tuesday but more so to the south. The rest of the next seven days should be dry but much cooler than it has been.

Detailed Forecast for Grand Rapids

Today

A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 84. Light south wind becoming southwest 6 to 11 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.

Tonight

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 2am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Monday

A 30 percent chance of showers before 8am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 82. West wind 3 to 8 mph.

Monday Night

A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. West wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday

A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Light and variable wind becoming southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 63.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 80.

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 60.

Thursday

Partly sunny, with a high near 77.

Thursday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 56.

Friday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.

Friday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 56.

Saturday

A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 72.

Climate summery at Grand Rapids for August 8^th the official H/L was 84/63 there were 9 CDD’s no rainfall was recorded the highest wind gust was 26 MPH out of the W.  No significant weather events were recorded.  For today the average H/L is 82/62 the record high of 97 was in 1934 the coolest high of 69 was in 1994 and 1972 the record low of 43 was in 1964 the warmest low of 72 was in many years the last time was in 2010. The most rainfall of 1.25” was in 1977.  Last year the H/L was 92/69.

Some weather history for August 9^th 1969, A tornado hit Cincinnati OH killing four persons and causing fifteen million dollars property damage. The tornado moved in a southeasterly direction at 40 to 50 mph. (The Weather Channel) 1987,  Florida baked in the summer heat. Nine cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Jacksonville with a reading of 101 degrees. Miami FL reported a record high of 98 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)  Here in Michigan 1964, Less than a week after hitting 100 degrees the temperature plummets to a record cold 38 degrees at Lansing and 43 at Grand Rapids. Muskegon went from 99 degrees on the 3rd to a low of 40 degrees this morning. 2009, A thunderstorm brings damaging downburst winds estimated at 70 to 75 mph to Muskegon County. The storm strikes Hoffmaster State Park and Fruitport, downing dozens of trees and causing some damage to homes. The storms continue into Kent County, hitting Kent City and Sparta. Another severe thunderstorm produces a downburst that blows part of the roof off a school in Jackson.

 

 

Continued warm and humid through Tuesday before we start a welcome cooling trend which by Saturday morning will see some locations with lows in the 50's with highs by the end of the week in the pleasant 70's. Best chances of any rain will be Monday night through Wednesday

I had a request to update the "heatwave" stats to something potentially more meaningful. Which is 3 or more consecutive days with daily maximum temperatures above the 90th and 95th percentile for all Chester County Stations. The below rank summary makes the absolute-vs-relative divergence concrete. Sorted by absolute rank, the biggest movers are the 2010s (11th → 4th) and 2020s (13th → 6th), both rising 7 places once heat is judged against each station's own norm — meaning recent decades have been locally extreme even though they weren't absolutely record-hot. Going the other way, the 1960s (−4) and 1990s (−5) fall under the relative lens, and the 1940s slip from 1st to 3rd. The 1930s hold firm near the top under both definitions, and the 1950s actually take the #1 spot under P90 

@beaugieyou getting hit by these? 

Fúck fúck summer fúck the 36°C SSTs

32.5°C (90.5°F) dew point now.

I managed 2 months of dryish heat well, but the 3rd week of humid heat took a toll on me.

19 minutes ago, Shaheen said:

Fúck fúck summer fúck the 36°C SSTs

32.5°C (90.5°F) dew point now.

I managed 2 months of dryish heat well, but the 3rd week of humid heat took a toll on me.

You're about the only place in the world that beats the Midwest corn belt dewpoints.

Got nailed pretty good again.  Estimating 60+ mph winds.  What a summer.

I got a few sprinkles this morning which added to the steam today.  It's currently 94 with a dp of 76 and a heat index of 106.

And Humid.  ?

Euro is bullish of a very wet august here. Time will tell!

47 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Euro is bullish of a very wet august here. Time will tell!

The ring of fire may treat you well.  Models have gone stronger with the heat for my area and it may last over a week.

On 8/8/2026 at 8:56 PM, Clinton said:

If anything can break the cap up your way tomorrow look out.  Cape values over 5,000 in places.

It definitely tried, but the cap held strong all afternoon and evening here. Some storms are firing up in far southeastern Nebraska now, but it’s looks to be quiet here.

1 hour ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Euro is bullish of a very wet august here. Time will tell!

Looks like a great pattern for most of Nebraska and Iowa… for once! Bring on the rain and storms.

Severe thunderstorm watch here until the wee hours of the morning.  Storms are firing in IL.

There is a PDS tornado warning in western IL right now.

4 active tornado warnings in Illinois right now 1 one confirmed on ground 

Good morning.  Here in the NW Grand Rapids area there was a lot of lightning overnight and I recorded 0.95” of rainfall yesterday and overnight. At 7AM I have a temperature of 65 with cloudy skies.  Today should be partly cloudy with highs in the low 80’s tonight should be cloudy with lows in the low 60’s.  Showers return on Tuesday with highs near 80 and lows in the mid 60s Wednesday through Sunday there looks to be seasonaly cool with highs the mid to upper 70’s and lows in the upper 50’s to low 60’s.

Detailed Forecast for Grand Rapids

Today

Patchy fog between 7am and 9am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 83. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Tuesday

A chance of showers before 2pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 2pm and 3pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tuesday Night

A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly before 7pm. Cloudy during the early evening, then becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Light east northeast wind.

Wednesday

A 30 percent chance of showers before 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 63.

Thursday

Partly sunny, with a high near 80.

Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59.

Friday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.

Friday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 59.

Saturday

A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 75.

Saturday Night

A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62.

Sunday

Partly sunny, with a high near 76.

Climate summery for August 9^th at Grand Rapids The official H/L was 80/56 there were 3 CDD’s there was 0.24” of rainfall (before midnight) the highest wind gust was 29 MPH out of the SE. Weather events reported were thunderstorm, heavy rain, rain, light rain and fog.  For today the average H/L is 82/62 the record  high of 98 was in 1944 the coolest high of 62 was in 2012 the record low of 45 was in 1972 the warmest low of 75 was in 1900. The most rainfall of 1.80” was in 2012.  Last year the H/L was 91/69 and there was 0.01” of rain.

Some weather history for August 10^th 1980, Hurricane Allen came ashore above Brownsville, TX, dropping fifteen inches of rain near San Antonio, and up to 20 inches in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Tidal flooding occurred along the South Texas coast. Hurricane Allen packed winds to 150 mph, and also spawned twenty-nine tornadoes. Total damage from the storm was estimated at 750 million dollars. (David Ludlum) 1989, Thirty-eight cities in the south central and southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Asheville NC with a reading of 48 degrees, and Victoria TX with a low of 63 degrees. Oklahoma City OK reported a record cool afternoon high of 71 degrees, and the daily high of 64 degrees at Raleigh NC established a record for August. In Arizona, a record sixty-four day streak of 100 degree days at Phoenix came to an end.(The National Weather Summary) Here in Michigan, 1944, The first half of August produces seven days in the 90s, peaking with a record high of 98 degrees at Grand Rapids and 95 at Muskegon on this date. 1972, High pressure from Canada brings record low temperatures, including the 40 degrees at Lansing, 45 at Grand Rapids, and 47 at Muskegon.

 

 

Woah, the west valley got nailed last night!  As the TOR warnings erupted last night in N IL, storms blew up over the valley and nailed Litchfield Park/Goodyear area with strong winds and half dollar size hail.  Power outages have been reported due to power lines being down blown down.  Wild night!

 

Not much relief from the heat showing up in the long range from the Euro or GFS.   Things are going to get crispy brown around here as the heat dome shows no signs of wanting to leave.

Just now, Clinton said:

Not much relief from the heat showing up in the long range from the Euro or GFS.   Things are going to get crispy brown around here as the heat dome shows no signs of wanting to leave.

One last Hoorah of the HEAT????  The JMA last week did signal a possible surge north of some Heat from what i saw in the data.   

21 hours ago, Tom said:

@beaugieyou getting hit by these? 

Yes! We lost power 3x yesterday had 2 really strong storms. Had .75" from the first round then around 10pm last night got 2.25" within an hour. Unbelievable lightning. Already at 7" of rain this month, crazy considering we had less than half an inch in July

An interesting signal is showing up on the various models overnight tonight into tomorrow over the OHV.  The Euro model showed it in back to back runs as a thunderstorm complex crashes/fades away ushering a bowed wave of storm the tracks westward towards IN/IL.

Yuck!  

Nothing is set in stone in this pattern, but there is a pretty decent signal for a severe line plowing through this area around midday tomorrow, with some CAM guidance explicitly resolving pockets of 80-100 mph winds.

Pretty suffocating out there with the dews near 80 and virtually no wind.  The wind or lack thereof makes a big difference in how it feels at that dewpoint.

MLCAPE around 5000 here.  Just heard a clap of thunder out of nowhere so it appears something may be trying to fire overhead.

We're in the oven for the next week, it seems.  

100*/101* At this point, it doesn't matter.  It's dreadful.  

23 hours ago, metallica470 said:

4 active tornado warnings in Illinois right now 1 one confirmed on ground 

been an insane year for severe wx/tornadoes across Illinois

On 8/1/2026 at 8:19 AM, Tom said:

Outside of today's dreary Saturday in Chitown, a Perfect 7-day...in fact, looking out towards the Air & Water Show weekend it is looking splendid!!!  

 

temps ended up running 3-5° warmer than forecast every single day, good stuff.

HRRR is quite ominous for Chicago metro tomorrow.  Main threat will be damaging winds, but there may be a localized tornado threat as well especially since it looks like a boundary may be in the vicinity.  

Models did a terrible job forecasting the overnight storms.  The CAMs had a big MCS rolling through Siouxland into sw Minnesota and nw Iowa, but none of that happened.  Storms never blew up in South Dakota.  Even far northern Iowa is getting nothing, despite models showing that area (Mason City, et al) getting hit early this morning.  Storms are currently trying to blow up in central Iowa, but it's unclear how organized they can get before reaching my area.

Good morning. A new record rainfall was set at Grand Rapids yesterday of 2.55” I live about 20 miles to the NW of the airport and I only had 0.95” and Muskegon to my west had 0.88”. Here in the NW Grand Rapids area, it is mostly cloudy with a temperature of 66 the DP is 65 so it is somewhat humid. Today should be warm and there is about a 50% chance of showers this afternoon there is a better chance of storms to the south and southwest of Grand Rapids. At 5:45 there are storms over southern Lake Michigan. Highs in the next 7 days should range from the low 80’s today through Friday then cool down into the mid to upper 70’s over the weekend, lows will range from near 60 to the mid 60’s there will be chances for showers on Sunday.

Detailed Forecast for Grand Rapids

Today

A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Calm wind becoming south southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight

A 30 percent chance of showers before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Calm wind.

Wednesday

Partly sunny, with a high near 83. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Thursday

A 20 percent chance of showers before 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Calm wind becoming northwest around 6 mph in the afternoon.

Thursday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 60.

Friday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 80.

Friday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 59.

Saturday

A chance of showers after 8am. Partly sunny, with a high near 75.

Saturday Night

Showers likely before 8pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 8pm and 2am, then showers likely after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63.

Sunday

A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78.

Sunday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62.

Monday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 85/66 there were 11 CDD’s a new record rainfall of 2.55” was recorded.  Some weather events were thunderstorm, heavy rain, rain and fog.  For today the average H/L is 82/62 the record high of 96 was in 1947 the coolest high of 63 was in 2004 the record low of 43 was in 1967 the warmest low of 75 was in 1944. The most rainfall of 1.31” was in 1941.  Last year the H/L was 87/70

In weather history August 1947 was the warmest on record here in Grand Rapids with a mean of 77.7 that is a departure from average of +6.6. The month started off on the cool side with a H/L of 76/46 on the 1^st but the rest of the month was hot. The high for the month was 100, there were 2 days of highs of 100 and a total of 17 days of highs of 90 or better with 7 days of 95 or better to go with the two days of 100. The month had 12 nights with lows of 70 or better.

 

 

 

2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Models did a terrible job forecasting the overnight storms.  The CAMs had a big MCS rolling through Siouxland into sw Minnesota and nw Iowa, but none of that happened.  Storms never blew up in South Dakota.  Even far northern Iowa is getting nothing, despite models showing that area (Mason City, et al) getting hit early this morning.  Storms are currently trying to blow up in central Iowa, but it's unclear how organized they can get before reaching my area.

Your getting rocked again!  Are you on the north side of Cedar Rapids?  Iirc, I thought you were on the north side.  BTW, did you end up seeing or hearing sirens the other day with the TOR warned cell?

9 hours ago, summerrules said:

temps ended up running 3-5° warmer than forecast every single day, good stuff.

You can really count on the UHI factor at ORD to bump up the temps because overall, the Midwest was in the avg to slightly BN temp category.