12 hours ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

Pretty sure August will be the 7th consecutive -PNA month. 

We have not seen a strong-sustained Aleutian low at all actually since Winter 15-16, 11 years. The Pac is in a state, and the -200dm Canadian is showing for Feb in the Pacific is just not going to happen. I'll go with -30 to -40dm as the PNA for DJFM mean, if not higher. You want to venture a guess?

I suspect the Aleutian/NPAC Low will be of similar or slightly greater intensity than 2015/16. It will appear once the seasonal decay of Indo-Asian monsoonal forcing takes place along with the establishment of the Siberian High.

11 hours ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

Lowest max years has an interesting following Winter composite... Looks like -PDO/east-based El Nino

Phoenix broke its DJFM Temp record by +2F last Winter.. interestingly, here is the Winter that follows warmest PHX Winters.. you would think that warm begets warm but history says that it usually reverses

You’re digging your own grave with this PDO stuff. It is nothing more than a resonant echo of externally forced low frequency tendencies in atmospheric circulation not fully captured in EOFs for leading modes of variability (PNA/etc).

Every time we’ve had a disagreement w/rt PDO correlations over a seasonal/subseasonal forecast I’ve ended up being right. ? 

Backyard corn and tomater update. Gonna come down to the wire since I planted late

1 hour ago, Phil said:

I suspect the Aleutian/NPAC Low will be of similar or slightly greater intensity than 2015/16. It will appear once the seasonal decay of Indo-Asian monsoonal forcing takes place along with the establishment of the Siberian High.

15-16 had DJFM mean of almost -120dm. Bold forecast! I'll bump it in March to see who was closer. :)

2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

15-16 had DJFM mean of almost -120dm. Bold forecast! I'll bump it in March to see who was closer. :)

Phil reminds me a lot of my brother. He’s always right and no one holds a candle to him. Exhausting. 

Just a bit active ?

6 hours ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

15-16 had DJFM mean of almost -120dm. Bold forecast! I'll bump it in March to see who was closer. :)

It’s a bet. ? 

 

^Most of that +AAM is from the Southern Hemisphere

9 hours ago, Number1AIFSfan said:

Backyard corn and tomater update. Gonna come down to the wire since I planted late

Dude looks awesome!

17 hours ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

^Most of that +AAM is from the Southern Hemisphere

Uh, yeah because the SH is the winter hemisphere w/ the stronger jet(s) & wave dynamics right now.

I don’t see what the big revelation is here?

2 hours ago, Phil said:

Uh, yeah because the SH is the winter hemisphere w/ the stronger jet(s) & wave dynamics right now.

I don’t see what the big revelation is here?

So aggressive. The seasons are relatively weighted so that N. Hemisphere is 50% and S. Hemisphere is 50% as per their avg fluctuation at the time. My point is that the PDO - or whatever is happening globally that it is reflecting, has been dominating in the Apr-Aug part of this El Nino. 

On 9/1/2026 at 3:55 PM, Blizzard777 said:

Just a bit active ?

In middle of the ocean though