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As we wrap up the month of September early next week, we will enter one of the more important months of Autumn that provides us clues what mother nature will have in store as we get deeper into the colder season.  Some major changes in our wx pattern are dialing up as we open up a brand new month. Significant high lat blocking seemingly develops right at the start of the month as the new LRC develops, first, way up north in the high lats (good sign) and then trickles down into the mid-latitudes about a week later.   What are the models showing???

 

Let's discuss....

The clues I saw long ago were beginning to present themselves about 10 days ago when I saw the warming developing across Greenland and the northern tier of North America at the 10mb/30mb Strat level.  Low and behold, all the models are jumping on the -AO/-NAO pattern.  Take a look at the animations below and its really encouraging to me to see that literally ALL the warming ongoing is happening smack dab over North America!  It's fascinating to me that as the new LRC develops it is almost like clock work that the atmosphere "snaps" into a new pattern.  

Northern Hemisphere 10 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

 

Northern Hemisphere 30 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

 

 

The CFSv2 has been holding steadfast on the idea of a western US Ridge (+PNA) and eastern CONUS trough-like pattern.  Remarkably, this is quite a different pattern we have seen for the month of October in what seems like ages to me.

glbz700MonInd1.gif

CFSv2 temp/precip trends...

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.202010.gif

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.202010.gif

 

On the topic of High Lat Blocking, every single model is picking up on a massive and long lasting Scandinavian/NW Russia Block across the Pole on the other side of the Northern Hemisphere.  If this is a pattern that cycles through and one of the LRC's exhibits where ridges will develop in the cold season, look out!

 

cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_2.png

 

 

 

cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_3.png

 

Lastly, what about the Snow???  Nature is laying down the foundation way up north, as the sun has set this past week in that part of the world.  Ol' Man Winter has arrived and has been awakened.

 

cursnow_alaska.gif

 

While each run may be different, lately, the CFS has been sniffing out a dramatic expansion of snow cover over Canada next month (Euro Weeklies agree) and quite possibly a big cool down for the lower 48 towards the end of the month.

 

Happy Halloween!

Snow accu. CFS Sa 31.10.2020 00 UTC 

 

 

North America snow cover extent is trending in the middle of the pack over the last decade...

 

../plots/daily_snow_extent/multisensor_4km_na_snow_extent_by_year_graph.png

1.png

2.png

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Taken at 12:30PM, on the south side of Ankeny Iowa.  At least 6" on the ground.

First flakes of the season here in St. Paul today. It came down pretty heavy for 5-10 minutes this morning. .2” officially at the airport. 

First flakes of the season falling onto Lincoln. It’s light and wet, but it’s snow. 

Posted Images

47 minutes ago, james1976 said:

That snowcover map for Halloween is impressive. Not that I'm expecting it to verify but that is a heck of a nice looking trend.

Ya, I don't necessarily take it verbatim, but the Euro weeklies were also showing a strong CF towards the end of the month and if you utilize the BSR for any LR prediction, it would fit also.   

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9 hours ago, james1976 said:

That snowcover map for Halloween is impressive. Not that I'm expecting it to verify but that is a heck of a nice looking trend.

Yep, those LR snow maps are the new "clown maps" of our era but you don't need to look any further than last Halloween to find a real snow swath thru the Midwest. Sooo...

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I'm not enthused about a bone-dry October.

season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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LOL @ GFS showing a snow swath across N. IL for 5-Oct. Anyone in a betting mood?

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Some LR thoughts on this beautiful Sunday morning...I'm paying close attention to the wx pattern thousands of miles to our NW, near the Gulf of Alaska, where today a powerful and rare early season storm system is poised to thrash the SE coast of Alaska with Hurricane Force winds.  My brother and his family have a cabin near the Kena coast where they had some great Salmon and Halibut fishing last month.  Over the next week, this part of the North American continent is going to get lambasted by 4 storm systems in a week long barrage. 

Quote

Hurricane Force Wind Warning


Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
321 PM AKDT Sat Sep 26 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ120-271245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
321 PM AKDT Sat Sep 26 2020

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 45 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft building to 13 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 65 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 20 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

 

Take a look at the 00z GEFS animation below... 

 

Why is this important???  Well, the track to which these storms are taking is critical to our wx pattern downstream as this pumps the ridge up along the western NAMER coastline in the near term.  Last year, I remember these storms plowing east into western NAMER, thus pumping a huge EC ridge and very different compared to last year.  Now, this is where I think the pattern may be heading towards Week 3-4 of October.  The track to which these storm systems are taking suggest to me that we will see a lot of systems tracking up from the south (potential GOM systems) and ride up the App's or EC.  Unfortunately, this means those members in our western Sub may not benefit from this pattern come Week 3.  We'll see but if the PNA relaxes to more neutral by then it may allow a farther western storm track through the MW/GL's during this period.  I'm thinking there will be a very active period by Week 3 and a persistent Long Term - Long Wave trough across eastern North America.  This could be the chilly pattern both the Euro Weeklies and CFS model are seeing towards the later part of the month.  

 

 

 

1.gif

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Northwest flow 😀

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.5"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

Some LR thoughts on this beautiful Sunday morning...I'm paying close attention to the wx pattern thousands of miles to our NW, near the Gulf of Alaska, where today a powerful and rare early season storm system is poised to thrash the SE coast of Alaska with Hurricane Force winds.  My brother and his family have a cabin near the Kena coast where they had some great Salmon and Halibut fishing last month.  Over the next week, this part of the North American continent is going to get lambasted by 4 storm systems in a week long barrage. 

 

Take a look at the 00z GEFS animation below... 

 

Why is this important???  Well, the track to which these storms are taking is critical to our wx pattern downstream as this pumps the ridge up along the western NAMER coastline in the near term.  Last year, I remember these storms plowing east into western NAMER, thus pumping a huge EC ridge and very different compared to last year.  Now, this is where I think the pattern may be heading towards Week 3-4 of October.  The track to which these storm systems are taking suggest to me that we will see a lot of systems tracking up from the south (potential GOM systems) and ride up the App's or EC.  Unfortunately, this means those members in our western Sub may not benefit from this pattern come Week 3.  We'll see but if the PNA relaxes to more neutral by then it may allow a farther western storm track through the MW/GL's during this period.  I'm thinking there will be a very active period by Week 3 and a persistent Long Term - Long Wave trough across eastern North America.  This could be the chilly pattern both the Euro Weeklies and CFS model are seeing towards the later part of the month.  

 

 

 

1.gif

Some of those systems verbatim would indeed get far enough west to "hit the Mitt" (see hot zone map attached) 🥵

Great stuff Tom - thx

 

20191027 BSR hot zone for the Mitt.PNG

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Man, if the GFS is not really as progressive or warm, as its future indicates, the block over the SW and PNW won't migrate east. There's nothing to really cut down this semi-permanent feature. Only approach that could reestablish it any farther east is if a storm undercuts it. We're really in for the long haul here. The BSR carries it (the cold onslaught) longer than even I'm brave enough to go at this point. Like Tom also said, its 4 distinctive storms or cold waves likely coming at this point, at the minimum. Buckle up.

October will be charging in shortly...

If it goes the distance, it will be pretty radical.

 

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2 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Man, if the GFS is not really as progressive or warm, as its future indicates, the block over the SW and PNW won't migrate east. There's nothing to really cut down this semi-permanent feature. Only approach that could reestablish it any farther east is if a storm undercuts it. We're really in for the long haul here. The BSR carries it (the cold onslaught) longer than even I'm brave enough to go at this point. Like Tom also said, its 4 distinctive storms or cold waves likely coming at this point, at the minimum. Buckle up.

October will be charging in shortly...

If it goes the distance, it will be pretty radical.

 

Talk about flipping a pattern switch! Overnight we go from endless summer sunshine and benign repeat to active, active, active.

 

Things that are in my AFD for this week:

Up to 1" rain, classic autumn stratiform type

Brisk north winds

High temps 10-15F below normal

Cold core thunder

Likely waterspouts

Lows in the 30s

Possible frost

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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8 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Talk about flipping a pattern switch! Overnight we go from endless summer sunshine and benign repeat to active, active, active.

 

Things that are in my AFD for this week:

Up to 1" rain, classic autumn stratiform type

Brisk north winds

High temps 10-15F below normal

Cold core thunder

Likely waterspouts

Lows in the 30s

Possible frost

#RealAutumn....has arrived!  It's going to be a busy week around these parts as I see a couple more good chances of precip besides today's stratiform/post-frontal rain event.   A rotating piece of energy around the backside of the monster trough in SE Canada looks to bring a wave through on Wed/Thu along with LE rain showers.  The clipper type system showing up over the weekend is interesting to say the very least.  Very amped up pattern around here which is a great sign...finally...

00z Euro the wetter of the bunch through this weekend...

 

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

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Northwest flow 😀

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.5"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Constant highs in the mid-60s near 70 some days with a Northwest wind and full sun are totes awesome, yo.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.5"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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The GFS and Euro no longer have any freezing temps around here this weekend into next week.  The Euro had always been warmer than the GFS, but now it doesn't even get the temp below 40º.  The GFS had a freeze across the area on several runs, but now it only gets us down to the mid 30s one morning, with 40+º every other morning.

season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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20 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Talk about flipping a pattern switch! Overnight we go from endless summer sunshine and benign repeat to active, active, active.

 

Things that are in my AFD for this week:

Up to 1" rain, classic autumn stratiform type

Brisk north winds

High temps 10-15F below normal

Cold core thunder

Likely waterspouts

Lows in the 30s

Possible frost

Nice!! Happy real Autumn!! Bringing it in with a bang! It literally hits every "classic" thing right on the button if you love this season.

 

Gotta see what the models keep trying to do with the PNW ridge. I just can't see it doing what 12z had it doing and migrating east over the plains.

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33 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Nice!! Happy real Autumn!! Bringing it in with a bang! It literally hits every "classic" thing right on the button if you love this season.

 

Gotta see what the models keep trying to do with the PNW ridge. I just can't see it doing what 12z had it doing and migrating east over the plains.

Des Moines NWS this morning was leaning towards AN for October 

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2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The GFS and Euro no longer have any freezing temps around here this weekend into next week.  The Euro had always been warmer than the GFS, but now it doesn't even get the temp below 40º.  The GFS had a freeze across the area on several runs, but now it only gets us down to the mid 30s one morning, with 40+º every other morning.

Des Moines NWS still talking frost:

The potential for frost/freeze conditions is also increasing for Thursday night and Friday night. Still some questions on when and how much winds will decouple, along with mid/high level cloud cover. Have kept the forecast lows in the 30s - and have included patchy/areas of frost in the forecast.

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On 9/27/2020 at 10:30 PM, jaster220 said:

Talk about flipping a pattern switch! Overnight we go from endless summer sunshine and benign repeat to active, active, active.

 

Things that are in my AFD for this week:

Up to 1" rain, classic autumn stratiform type

Brisk north winds

High temps 10-15F below normal

Cold core thunder

Likely waterspouts

Lows in the 30s

Possible frost

Wow...looks crazy!!!

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The end of GFS is still wrong. It disagrees with its own AO trend.

Those of you who are in drought, or starting a drought, this is bad news. 

 

If October is showing rainfall to your east in longer ranges, I'd retrograde that west in my mind when thinking futuristically.

 

I guess I'm making my formal disagreement that east of the rockies will be "normal" or above in temps throughout at least October.

Folks uo north need to get harvest done at the first opportunity.

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Mid-October looks very very boring.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.5"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said:

Mid-October looks very very boring.

Hoping so. I am looking for perfect Indian Summer conditions to enjoy before too cold gets here. Nov of 2010 was great around here as an example.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Right now CPC's maps show a normal to BN first half around here temps wise with normal precip.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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5 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Mid-October looks very very boring.

I'd rather have boring weather now and save the action for later down the road. As a matter a fact, I'd preferred it stays boring till mid November, or so and then, have Snow N Cold arrive last week of the month. That should bold well for December and hopefully the rest of the Winter months.

 

N btw: I could use "Indian Summer" in October. It helps w outdoor cleaning and preparing for the Winter months.

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The Mitt is going to be on fire over the next few days...high rez models picking up on some real heavy Lake Effect rain showers..possibly thunder???

 

nam3km_apcpn_ncus_20.png

 

 

Why not open up October with some LES up in the U.P.????

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_53.png

1.png

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After analyzing model data, I'm still trying to figure out if the clipper sliding down this weekend is part of the new LRC or a mix of both the old/new pattern.  It's fairly evident that the blocking evolving across the Arctic right now is certainly much different than last year.  The placement of all the block across the Northern Hemisphere are rather interesting to me.  I'm pretty certain that we will be seeing influences of these blocks over the coming cold season.

 

Every year about this time, I try my best to figure out Day 1 of the new LRC and I'm beginning to see some clues from the models in the extended.  I've been looking to see if there would be a system developing over the central Plains around the 6th or so using the Bearing Sea Rule.  Prior to that system, however, I was expecting a northern tier system to track across the Sub during the opening days of this month.  The clipper this coming weekend may be just that storm. 

Before I dive into what I believe may be the first days of the new LRC, October 1st opens up an entire new pattern way up north and by the looks of this hemispheric 500mb pattern, it's a pretty picture if your a wx enthusiast like myself who seeks optimistic signs for the cold season ahead.  The 00z GEFS animation below is showing everything we did not have in previous Octobers that opened up the month with a stout SER and/or western trough along with the high lat blocking near Scandinavia/Greenland/North Pole.  The displacement of the "North American Vortex" is about as pretty as it gets.  Can you just imagine what that will look like in December???  The blocking this Autumn season is eye candy to say the least.  Storm systems that do develop, IMO, will become energized as a result of this blocking.  

 

Keeping all of this in mind, when will we see our first legit storm of the new LRC season???  IMO, I think its going to develop between the 9th-12th and there will be a GOM connection.  The 00z EPS is jumping on it and not only that, but there will be a E PAC connection as well.  Take a look at the 06z GFS 500mb vorticity map below and there is a storm spinning in the E PAC, remnants of Marie in the Tropical PAC, that will become influenced by the northern stream jet driving into the western North American coast.  Blessings coming for northern Cali???  Nature may be finally delivering some much needed rainfall into the fire stricken regions of the west.  This system then merges into the upper level steering pattern and we begin the journey setting up the new 2020-2021 LRC.

 

083846.png 

 

 

 

 

1.gif

2.gif

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7 hours ago, Tom said:

The Mitt is going to be on fire over the next few days...high rez models picking up on some real heavy Lake Effect rain showers..possibly thunder???

 

nam3km_apcpn_ncus_20.png

 

 

BOOM!  Won't be long now if this pattern remains the dominant one heading thru autumn.

 

Quote

-- Frost or freeze potential Thu night and Fri night --

Thursday night has that look of winter-style NNW-flow lake effect
(rain this time) west of US-131 and subsidence/clearing over mid-
southern parts of the state. With even colder air still advecting
in, should be a pretty chilly and perhaps frosty night in inland
locations. Friday night looks to be the coldest night, as the
surface winds will be calmer in the midst of the surface high,
though the cold could be partially mitigated by some mid and high
clouds.

 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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@ Tom

To follow-up on your comment wrt "energized system" in this pattern.

This is very 07-08

Quote

-- Rain likely Sunday --

The persistence of the western North American ridge and the
Hudson Bay / Great Lakes trough, and another shortwave and jet
streak digging into the central CONUS between the two, may lead to
cyclogenesis over our region on Sunday. There is majority
European ensemble support for rain on Sunday as a result.

 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Not sure if MI peeps are aware, but, all of MI state broke a record for coldest "Mid Level Temperatures." Temps at 6000' were 0 to -10F, while at ground level, they were in the 50s. Never occurred this early in the season being that frigid. As a matter of fact, the showers and t'stms that some of us had earlier today were fueled by very cold air aloft, which, of course was record setting.

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Tonight is plenty chilly by September stds. Yet even colder conditions are on deck to open the new month. Wrt this event, just like with LES, those regions that are close to the lake are/will get the brunt of it, while further inland, especially way inland like mby won't get anywhere near the map totals Tom posted. I believe quite a chunk of that should've been from the initial SLP that was riding the CF. Unfortunately, as is typical with those "waves" pulsing, we missed the pulses NW and SE resulting in very little qpf right thru SCMI.

GRR

Quote


Showers should increase/perk up again however toward morning
along the lakeshore where sfc troughing/convergence is expected to
set up. Also much colder H8 air near 1C will be arriving, adding
lake enhancement. HREF guidance is suggesting that quite a bit of
rain is possible Thursday morning /12Z-18Z/ in the traditional NW
flow lake effect area/zone south and west of GRR, with a QPF
bullseye over an inch in parts of Ottawa, Allegan and Van Buren
Counties during that time.

 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 minute ago, Niko said:

Not sure if MI peeps are aware, but, all of MI state broke a record for coldest "Mid Level Temperatures." Temps at 6000' were 0 to -10F, while at ground level, they were in the 50s. Never occurred this early in the season being that frigid.

Wow! where did you get that story? Kinda explains all my comments on how this feels more like Novemberrr

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Wow! where did you get that story? Kinda explains all my comments on how this feels more like Novemberrr

My local forecaster said it.

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16 hours ago, jaster220 said:

@ Tom

To follow-up on your comment wrt "energized system" in this pattern.

This is very 07-08

 

I like where things are heading around these parts even though models sorta backed off on the intensity of the "clipper" this weekend.  Interestingly, the models have trended colder for my area Mon morning post clipper.  Needless to say, it's going to be the coldest autumn weekend here and perfect wx on Sunday to stay indoors and watch some football and cook some good food!

00z Euro showing low/mid 30's for many on here Monday morning...First Frost for Chicago area???

1.png

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On 9/30/2020 at 6:16 AM, Tom said:

After analyzing model data, I'm still trying to figure out if the clipper sliding down this weekend is part of the new LRC or a mix of both the old/new pattern.  It's fairly evident that the blocking evolving across the Arctic right now is certainly much different than last year.  The placement of all the block across the Northern Hemisphere are rather interesting to me.  I'm pretty certain that we will be seeing influences of these blocks over the coming cold season.

 

Every year about this time, I try my best to figure out Day 1 of the new LRC and I'm beginning to see some clues from the models in the extended.  I've been looking to see if there would be a system developing over the central Plains around the 6th or so using the Bearing Sea Rule.  Prior to that system, however, I was expecting a northern tier system to track across the Sub during the opening days of this month.  The clipper this coming weekend may be just that storm. 

Before I dive into what I believe may be the first days of the new LRC, October 1st opens up an entire new pattern way up north and by the looks of this hemispheric 500mb pattern, it's a pretty picture if your a wx enthusiast like myself who seeks optimistic signs for the cold season ahead.  The 00z GEFS animation below is showing everything we did not have in previous Octobers that opened up the month with a stout SER and/or western trough along with the high lat blocking near Scandinavia/Greenland/North Pole.  The displacement of the "North American Vortex" is about as pretty as it gets.  Can you just imagine what that will look like in December???  The blocking this Autumn season is eye candy to say the least.  Storm systems that do develop, IMO, will become energized as a result of this blocking.  

 

Keeping all of this in mind, when will we see our first legit storm of the new LRC season???  IMO, I think its going to develop between the 9th-12th and there will be a GOM connection.  The 00z EPS is jumping on it and not only that, but there will be a E PAC connection as well.  Take a look at the 06z GFS 500mb vorticity map below and there is a storm spinning in the E PAC, remnants of Marie in the Tropical PAC, that will become influenced by the northern stream jet driving into the western North American coast.  Blessings coming for northern Cali???  Nature may be finally delivering some much needed rainfall into the fire stricken regions of the west.  This system then merges into the upper level steering pattern and we begin the journey setting up the new 2020-2021 LRC.

I

083846.png 

 

 

 

 

1.gif

2.gif

I'm liking the trend with the GFS this morning for week 2 and 3 of Oct and as we start a new LRC.  Hope that big storm in the plains can verify!  

gfs_T700_us_62.png

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38 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I'm liking the trend with the GFS this morning for week 2 and 3 of Oct and as we start a new LRC.  Hope that big storm in the plains can verify!  

gfs_T700_us_62.png

Perfect track for my area haha

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Welcome to October 2020. 

There was another 0.44" of rain yesterday. So the September ended up with several days of rain after a period of dry days. The month ended up with a mean of 61.5 and that was good for a departure of -1.3 the high for the month was 85 on the 3rd and the low was 36 on the 19th. There was a total of 3.07" of rain at Grand Rapids. At Grand Rapids September 2020 was the coolest September since 2008.

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NWS Hastings is saying after this frost and freeze potential we warm back up through the middle of October.  Not liking this at all.

Monday through Wednesday...
We expect a nice warming trend, which has broad ECMWF ensemble
support. We should see highs back into the 70s and maybe even some
80s again as we near mid week. The warm stretch will likely
continue through at least the end of next week and probably into
the second weekend in October.
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FGF issued a freeze warning for areas in the CWA that didn't see sub-freezing temps last month. That doesn't include here, as we got to 30 on 9/9. It's all around Lakes country.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.5"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Ensembles look not so great for people like me who dislike boring weather. GEFS> EPS.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.5"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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On/off +RN with 49F on my car thermo. Clouds are so grey they look like snow clouds at times. Reminds me of Oct 1st during my years in NMI

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Attm, its 54F under cloudy skies and just received pea size hail. Came w 25mph wind and lasted less than 5 min.  Skies turned black for a split sec as well. Was actually cool to see some hail today. I enjoy listening to the sound when hail hits the surface. Anyways, its a very blustery day outside today. So Octoberish!

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8 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

FGF issued a freeze warning for areas in the CWA that didn't see sub-freezing temps last month. That doesn't include here, as we got to 30 on 9/9. It's all around Lakes country.

Now you have a frost warning and I have a freeze warning.  I've had two mornings in the upper 20s already. Why is the fgf issuing fall freeze/frost warnings for areas that have seen multiple freezes already this fall?

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