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October 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Welcome to October 2020. 

There was another 0.44" of rain yesterday. So the September ended up with several days of rain after a period of dry days. The month ended up with a mean of 61.5 and that was good for a departure of -1.3 the high for the month was 85 on the 3rd and the low was 36 on the 19th. There was a total of 3.07" of rain at Grand Rapids. At Grand Rapids September 2020 was the coolest September since 2008.

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NWS Hastings is saying after this frost and freeze potential we warm back up through the middle of October.  Not liking this at all.

Monday through Wednesday...
We expect a nice warming trend, which has broad ECMWF ensemble
support. We should see highs back into the 70s and maybe even some
80s again as we near mid week. The warm stretch will likely
continue through at least the end of next week and probably into
the second weekend in October.
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On/off +RN with 49F on my car thermo. Clouds are so grey they look like snow clouds at times. Reminds me of Oct 1st during my years in NMI

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Attm, its 54F under cloudy skies and just received pea size hail. Came w 25mph wind and lasted less than 5 min.  Skies turned black for a split sec as well. Was actually cool to see some hail today. I enjoy listening to the sound when hail hits the surface. Anyways, its a very blustery day outside today. So Octoberish!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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8 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

FGF issued a freeze warning for areas in the CWA that didn't see sub-freezing temps last month. That doesn't include here, as we got to 30 on 9/9. It's all around Lakes country.

Now you have a frost warning and I have a freeze warning.  I've had two mornings in the upper 20s already. Why is the fgf issuing fall freeze/frost warnings for areas that have seen multiple freezes already this fall?

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9 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

Now you have a frost warning and I have a freeze warning.  I've had two mornings in the upper 20s already. Why is the fgf issuing fall freeze/frost warnings for areas that have seen multiple freezes already this fall?

I was wrong in the post you quoted. Was in a hurry for something else and made the stupid decision to post before checking the AFD.

They were hesitant to throw the Western CWA into a headline as they were worried about cloud cover limiting cooling (which it looks like it will). Though I'm not sure why they're issuing frost/freeze headlines at all considering almost all of the CWA got <32 last month.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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NWS Hastings concerned about above normal temps next week and very low humidity. Fire conditions and drought gets worse. 
 

Both
ensembles indicate strong agreement for well above normal temps in
the 80s for second half of next week. While warm and dry
conditions are pleasant and allow for progress on fall harvest,
will need to monitor potential for fire wx concerns. Warm temps
this time of year are often accompanied by at least some breezy
S-W winds and low humidity, and given lack of pcpn chcs, ongoing
drought, and activities associated with harvest, could be looking
at a heightened potential for at least near-critical fire wx for a
multi-day stretch not seen in this area for at least a few yrs.
Obviously plenty of time for details later, but something we`ll be
monitoring.

 

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There is a frost advisory for Cedar Rapids and points north tonight.  The NWS has been unsure just how cold it will get considering the GFS and Euro have been different all week.  The GFS has it clear with temps in the low to mid 30s while the Euro has clouds and low to mid 40s.  There is still a patch of clouds moving through now, but it appears it may clear in a few hours.  I hope some wind will keep the temp from dropping below 36 or so.  I did not protect any plants.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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7 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

There is a frost advisory for Cedar Rapids and points north tonight.  The NWS has been unsure just how cold it will get considering the GFS and Euro have been different all week.  The GFS has it clear with temps in the low to mid 30s while the Euro has clouds and low to mid 40s.  There is still a patch of clouds moving through now, but it appears it may clear in a few hours.  I hope some wind will keep the temp from dropping below 36 or so.  I did not protect any plants.

I see a lot of low/mid 30's showing up early this morning from CR on north where skies are clear, esp out by James where he may have dipped sub freezing today.

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Has anyone flipped on their furnace yet around the Lakes/MW region???  It was a chilly indoor temp of 63F this morning when I went downstairs and I'm still fighting the idea of turning it on.  My space heater is doing the trick for the time being in the family room.  I think I may turn it on later today but for now I'm alright.  It's currently the coolest morning of this autumn season (42F) and still may dip a degree or two.

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While many areas in west Michigan reported hail yesterday some even reported hail covering the ground. There was no hail that I know of here yesterday. I did record 0.17" of rain fall and there was a few claps of thunder yesterday afternoon. The overnight low here was 35 but the clouds have now moved in and the current temperature here is 39.

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26 minutes ago, Tom said:

Has anyone flipped on their furnace yet around the Lakes/MW region???  It was a chilly indoor temp of 63F this morning when I went downstairs and I'm still fighting the idea of turning it on.  My space heater is doing the trick for the time being in the family room.  I think I may turn it on later today but for now I'm alright.  It's currently the coolest morning of this autumn season (42F) and still may dip a degree or two.

I just leave the thermostat at 66 and yes the furnace has kicked on several times. At this time I turned the  thermostat to 70 just to take the chill out of the house.

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

I see a lot of low/mid 30's showing up early this morning from CR on north where skies are clear, esp out by James where he may have dipped sub freezing today.

Yup! Just hit 32 and there's frost everywhere. Certainly not a hard freeze but definitely frosty conditions. 

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A patch of clouds early in the night kept my temp in the 40s through 2am.  Then, a clear sky allowed the temp to dip to the mid 30s by morning.  It appears it was not this cold long enough for frost formation.

I see several 28º reports in western to north-central Iowa.  This is a surprise.  I don't believe Des Moines even issued a freeze advisory.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I am looking forward to the return of 60s and 70s next week.  It's too early to be this cold.  Models are showing a very pleasant week across most of Iowa next week, especially for western and central Iowa.  Just like in spring, they are always several degrees warmer than eastern Iowa it seems.  

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It looks like the official high at Grand Rapids will be 52. That will tie 2003 and 1961 for the 3rd coldest maximum at Grand Rapids for any October 2nd in history with just  1993 (49) and 1974 (44) being colder. At this time it is mostly cloudy with some breaks in the clouds and 74 here

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Mixed stuff on the D1 for WMI

 

20201002 noaad1.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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On 10/1/2020 at 6:06 AM, Tom said:

I like where things are heading around these parts even though models sorta backed off on the intensity of the "clipper" this weekend.  Interestingly, the models have trended colder for my area Mon morning post clipper.  Needless to say, it's going to be the coldest autumn weekend here and perfect wx on Sunday to stay indoors and watch some football and cook some good food!

00z Euro showing low/mid 30's for many on here Monday morning...First Frost for Chicago area???

1.png

NOAA has the SLP from SW Missouri to about CLE. Even tho this forms on the polar front, it's certainly not a clipper track in the traditional sense. It will be on the dryer side for sure since it's not tapping the GOMEX. Not sure how to classify this one, lol, as it's kind of an odd-ball.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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4 hours ago, westMJim said:

It looks like the official high at Grand Rapids will be 52. That will tie 2003 and 1961 for the 3rd coldest maximum at Grand Rapids for any October 2nd in history with just  1993 (49) and 1974 (44) being colder. At this time it is mostly cloudy with some breaks in the clouds and 74 here

Looks like KRMY was 51F (for just 2 obs 20 mins apart around 4 pm) as our high. Has to be a top-5 here as well if there were an actual data set I'd confirm that.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Any of this reaching the ground and helping y'all west end of the sub Peeps?? Hoping so

 

20201002 NEB Radar.PNG

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Down to 36F now. Not supposed to get any lower but they chose to maintain our frost advisory whether it's widespread is tbd

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Parts of the N GL's got their first signs that winter is coming as their first flakes of the season fell from the sky...this is from N WI...

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1312040767662284801

 

Will there be more where that came from this month???  Last nights 00z EPS showing some hints that parts of the northern half of the Sub could indeed see chances of their 1st flakes of the season.  Based on what I'm starting to see towards the 15th-18th, after a long stretch of AN temps and tranquil weather that's forthcoming, I'm looking for shot of colder air and a storm system to develop across the central CONUS.  The Rockies AND parts of Cali will be seeing their first snows of the season later next weekend.  The weather is about to change for those folks and it couldn't come sooner enough.

2.png

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14 hours ago, westMJim said:

It looks like the official high at Grand Rapids will be 52. That will tie 2003 and 1961 for the 3rd coldest maximum at Grand Rapids for any October 2nd in history with just  1993 (49) and 1974 (44) being colder. At this time it is mostly cloudy with some breaks in the clouds and 74 here

Whoops that current temperature should have read 47 and not 74 LOL.

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Yesterday was a cool day as stated earlier the official high of 52 was tied for the 3rd coolest maximum for any October 2nd at Grand Rapids. Clouds held the overnight low here to 35 and that also was the official low at GRR. At this time it is cloudy and 40 here at my house. 

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