Niko Posted October 5, 2020 Report Share Posted October 5, 2020 Currently at 48F under deep blue skies. Dipped into the 30s once again. I have been noticing this year that nighttime lows are a lot colder than last year. Great stretch of dry weather this week w temps starting BN and going towards AN. Possible 70s returning not outta the question. Btw: the tropics are getting juiced up again. We are dealing w Gamma now and on its heals, Delta could be posing a major threat to the US this time. Have to keep an eye on that. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 5, 2020 Report Share Posted October 5, 2020 22 hours ago, jaster220 said: I mentioned how the very cold mornings have caused trees even here in town to burst into color. This one is right behind me at the school yard. Saturday morning's brief sun had it glowing so I took a pic while walking the pup. After the overnight wetness dried up and just before the evening rain I snuck in a much needed lawn mowing. Was glad I could. Excellent pic! "Tis the season." 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 5, 2020 Report Share Posted October 5, 2020 1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said: GEFS shows a cooldown as early as day 10. EPS is back to miserable boringness. There's really nothing better to do right now than live and die by every run of every model. Yep, my forecast is showing nothing, but deep blue skies throughout the extended 10 day outlook. Temps vary throughout. I'd say, lets enjoy this, b4 Winter arrives. Tbh, yesterday, that weak rainstorm felt good. It was so Autumn-like. Temps remained in the low 50s w wet conditions most of the day. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 5, 2020 Report Share Posted October 5, 2020 2 weeks of boredom starts today, other than maybe a cool down to the 50s/60s next week. Got 80s in the forecast Fri-Sat. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 5, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2020 Some of the models seem to be latching on to a much colder looking weekend around these parts. Greenland block doing some of its dirty work??? I first noticed the ICON jump on it, then last nights 00z UKIE showed it and now the GFS is sorta trending towards it. The 00z Euro did as well last night but not as much as the ICON is atm. This is a good test to see how the models begin handling the blocking as the cold season moves on. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted October 5, 2020 Report Share Posted October 5, 2020 What's rain? Today Sunny, with a high near 80. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 18 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Tonight Clear, with a low around 49. South southwest wind 6 to 10 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 80. West southwest wind 5 to 13 mph. Tuesday Night Clear, with a low around 55. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 80. Light and variable wind becoming northeast around 6 mph in the morning. Wednesday Night Clear, with a low around 52. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 78. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 61. Friday Sunny, with a high near 85. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 59. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 81. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 58. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 5, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2020 Just now, OmahaSnowFan said: What's rain? Today Sunny, with a high near 80. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 18 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Tonight Clear, with a low around 49. South southwest wind 6 to 10 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 80. West southwest wind 5 to 13 mph. Tuesday Night Clear, with a low around 55. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 80. Light and variable wind becoming northeast around 6 mph in the morning. Wednesday Night Clear, with a low around 52. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 78. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 61. Friday Sunny, with a high near 85. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 59. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 81. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 58. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Looks like a forecast you see out in AZ in mid/late October! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted October 5, 2020 Report Share Posted October 5, 2020 GFS has looks to have a system around D7. By that time, it'll be around a month since the Sept system. Lincoln has recieved 0.15" since then. It's the GooFy-S, but it's something to watch at least. 5 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 5, 2020 Report Share Posted October 5, 2020 Euro completely misses Eastern NE with rain on the D7 system, I get absolutely drenched. Cooldown for the entire plains portion of the sub after that. One thing that's weird to see is the warmth of the system. It's rare to see lows pass to the North of here, but that's what one of the lows does before it phases in MN/MB on Monday. As a result, it looks like I'll be in the upper 60s/lower 70s during the entire event. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 5, 2020 Report Share Posted October 5, 2020 Is the day 7 storm the beginning of the new LRC? That seems to be a bit later than usual. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 5, 2020 Report Share Posted October 5, 2020 Looks like the warmer air this upcoming weekend wont be as mild as once predicted. It is looking cooler, although, Sat could be the only day in the low 70s, b4 dropping into the 60s for highs on Sunday and into Columbus Day. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 5, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2020 58 minutes ago, james1976 said: Is the day 7 storm the beginning of the new LRC? That seems to be a bit later than usual. You don't need a storm system to dictate the actual date of the 1st day of the new LRC. It just so happens that this year our first storm to "track" in the new LRC is a bit farther out. Instead, we are dealing with a ridge to open up the "new" pattern, however, I kinda feel like the system that tracked through this past weekend was a blend of the two patterns. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 Euro weeklies have turned into a joke, holy hell. Not to spoil it for anyone, but it shows warmth across the entire CONUS at D46. Much like the past 251870 runs. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 14 hours ago, FAR_Weather said: GEFS shows a cooldown as early as day 10. EPS is back to miserable boringness. There's really nothing better to do right now than live and die by every run of every model. The weather is so boring I’m not even paying much attention to the models. I rarely read AFDs since the last wet spell a month ago. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 I’m liking the temps for this week much better. Nice weather like this should produce nicer fall colors. Clouds or freezing temperatures cause the opposite to occur. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 It is gorgeous right now outside. Temp at 44F under crystal clear skies. Just finished a bonfire. Definitely had a light jacket on, listened to some soft music, had a little wine to go w it, and a couple of side snacks. I just luv that bonfire smell. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 It appears many locals not only had their 1st Frosts but also their 1st Freeze of the season yesterday morning. Some neighborhoods very close to mine dipped to around 30F. I'm looking forward to Indian Summer weather this entire week! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 This post may be a bit long as there is a LOT going on in this changing weather pattern and it's looking quite exciting, especially when you consider what potential this all means as we head deeper into the cold season. Today, is on average the 1st day of the new LRC in the mid latitudes (where we live) as the sun has set up north near the North Pole where the new LRC pattern is already in progress....it sure is looking fascinating! So, here we are on Oct 6th and taking a look at the 500mb vorticity map below some interesting features I see that bode well for our folks out west. Take a look at that little feature off the west coast of Cali (albeit it weak). I've been following this energy over the past week and it holds a big clue to what this will mean down the road in the colder months as the jet strengthens. What does this mean for us?? IMO, this is a clue to me that in December the jet stream will be targeting Cali as LRC cycle #2 cycles through. Some of the climate models have S Cali bone dry this winter but this may not be the case as we will probably have systems target this region throughout the winter months. The second feature I'd like to point out is in the Caribbean where we may have a major Hurricane strike the GOM coastline by this weekend. I originally thought the Cali wave would develop out in the Plains later this week but the ridge is to strong. Could this behave differently next cycle?? Yes, it very well could. The next major hurricane to develop in the GOM later this week will be an interesting GOM connection in the winter months. Thirdly, the good Ol' North American Vortex is back and it means business this season. It will not only lock in the cold for our continent this cold season but I'm seeing some peculiar signals that it will also "pump" the Greenland/N Atlantic Ridge this season. As we move forward a few days, the 1st significant storm system of the new LRC is coming into the picture late this weekend and more so early next week. The models had ZERO clue on the Blocking pattern that is now showing impressive signals which will likely be signature features, or rather, long term-long wave patterns. Have you noticed how much farther south this energy tracks through the Rockies this weekend into early next week??? Blocking is looking prevalent and this is the perfect slot whereby you want storms to track during the heart of Winter. Knowing seasonal variances in the jet stream will likely shift south, I'm intrigued by this storm for many reasons but lets see it develop first. I'll finish the post with this comment because I feel it is important for the long haul. Did the models just drink the "cool aid"??? Boy, was this a BIG miss by both the American and Euro in the longer range as they had no idea of the magnitude of blocking that looks to be on the agenda. Hello Greenland Block and SW Ridge (creates a unique "Slider" storm track) just off the Cali coast. The result from this major flip in the models overnight is a MUCH colder and stormier pattern across our Sub. Remember those Bearing Sea storms during the end of Sept??? They are poised to cycle through and this will be our 1st one early next week. 00z EPS Day 10 500mb pattern...had zero clue of the W NAMER ridge last week as it was portraying a +EPO which has now turned negative. If the models are this bad handling the blocking patterns, how could we trust the LR climate models that pretty much show barely any high lat blocking??? Needless to say, it's going to be a fun season from what I'm seeing very early on. Get ready to see some flakes fly for some of you farther west and north. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 On 10/4/2020 at 11:58 AM, Sparky said: This is off topic. I’ve been hibernating at home for the last two weeks. I’m thinking I likely have COVID-19 this time. I haven’t tested but I had about all the symptoms, and still can’t smell anything! The worst was the bad headache I had one night which cleared up once I took a nasal decongestant. Also had a low grade fever which made me achy all over. I’m almost back to normal now, except for a lot of coughing. I thought I had this virus last spring, but I guess it was just a sore throat (no sore throat this time) and cold that time. Seems to be another virus outbreak around here kinda like last spring. Some more local people have tested positive including my uncle and his wife who are in their mid 80s. My mom who is the same age also seems to have it, but she wasn’t as sick as I was, thankfully. My brother who sometimes has asthma problems had it less severe as well. So far, only one person I know was hospitalized. For me this wasn’t worse than other sicknesses I’ve had over the year’s and I’m hoping it’s over and done with. Symptoms started a few days after I was in CR. so maybe I picked it up from there? The local paper stated that my county and another one in central Iowa had the highest per capita infection rate in the world at one point in September. Not sure if I believe that though. I have been in the same boat Sparky, my wife tested positive for COVID-19 a couple weeks ago but she since has made a full recovery and recently tested negative for the virus. Over the weekend I developed symptoms myself, including losing all sense of taste and smell, headache, and sore throat from time to time. Other than that I have felt fine, no fever. I took a test on Friday through Test Nebraska, however as of this morning I am still waiting on those results. The worst part so far is that I started a new job last week, however I have been able to do training and the first couple of weeks worth of work virtually. Fingers crossed that we both make a full recovery from the virus. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 The recent rain has really made the grass grow. So yesterday I cut the grass and while doing so when I went to move one of the solar lights I have in the yard I disturbed a bee and thus I got stung. I know that is not a big deal but that is the first time I have been stung by a bee in many years. And yes it did sting. I have also noticed that the rain has slowed down the color change so now there is some trees with near full color. Some trees that are almost bare and some trees with full green leaves. At this time it is clear and 52 here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 Currently at 55F under mostly cloudy skies. Colors are showing nicely here, but not near peak just yet. Looking forward to a nice little warm-up coming blended in w cool to chilly evenings. There is a very slight chance for my area to receive some shower activity from a CF tomorrow, but I would not hold my breathe on it. Most of the wet weather will be confined to my north. Beautiful weather is in stored for many. Lets all enjoy it now while we can. Ol' Man Winter will be here b4 ya know it. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 17 hours ago, Tom said: You don't need a storm system to dictate the actual date of the 1st day of the new LRC. It just so happens that this year our first storm to "track" in the new LRC is a bit farther out. Instead, we are dealing with a ridge to open up the "new" pattern, however, I kinda feel like the system that tracked through this past weekend was a blend of the two patterns. Yeah that makes sense. Seems like in years past it was always a storm that kicked off the new LRC so I was naturally just looking for that haha. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 Delta expected to become a CAT4 at some point in the GOM. Has eyes on LA for landfall. Lets see how this all plays out. FYI: Hawkeye mentioned previously that Zeta is the most named storms that the tropics have ever reached, so lets see if we break that record this year. I have a good feeling that we might. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 1 hour ago, westMJim said: The recent rain has really made the grass grow. So yesterday I cut the grass and while doing so when I went to move one of the solar lights I have in the yard I disturbed a bee and thus I got stung. I know that is not a big deal but that is the first time I have been stung by a bee in many years. And yes it did sting. I have also noticed that the rain has slowed down the color change so now there is some trees with near full color. Some trees that are almost bare and some trees with full green leaves. At this time it is clear and 52 here. Ouch! Do you know if it was a honey bee or a bumblebee? I’m told honey bees die if they sting and they leave their stinger where they stung. I’ve been stung by both types of bees, but not in years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 2 hours ago, Bryan1117 said: I have been in the same boat Sparky, my wife tested positive for COVID-19 a couple weeks ago but she since has made a full recovery and recently tested negative for the virus. Over the weekend I developed symptoms myself, including losing all sense of taste and smell, headache, and sore throat from time to time. Other than that I have felt fine, no fever. I took a test on Friday through Test Nebraska, however as of this morning I am still waiting on those results. The worst part so far is that I started a new job last week, however I have been able to do training and the first couple of weeks worth of work virtually. Fingers crossed that we both make a full recovery from the virus. Get well my friend! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 5 minutes ago, Sparky said: Ouch! Do you know if it was a honey bee or a bumblebee? I’m told honey bees die if they sting and they leave their stinger where they stung. I’ve been stung by both types of bees, but not in years. I did not see or do I feel a stinger so it not have been a honey bee. I put ice on it and the swelling has gone down. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 5 hours ago, Tom said: This post may be a bit long as there is a LOT going on in this changing weather pattern and it's looking quite exciting, especially when you consider what potential this all means as we head deeper into the cold season. Today, is on average the 1st day of the new LRC in the mid latitudes (where we live) as the sun has set up north near the North Pole where the new LRC pattern is already in progress....it sure is looking fascinating! So, here we are on Oct 6th and taking a look at the 500mb vorticity map below some interesting features I see that bode well for our folks out west. Take a look at that little feature off the west coast of Cali (albeit it weak). I've been following this energy over the past week and it holds a big clue to what this will mean down the road in the colder months as the jet strengthens. What does this mean for us?? IMO, this is a clue to me that in December the jet stream will be targeting Cali as LRC cycle #2 cycles through. Some of the climate models have S Cali bone dry this winter but this may not be the case as we will probably have systems target this region throughout the winter months. The second feature I'd like to point out is in the Caribbean where we may have a major Hurricane strike the GOM coastline by this weekend. I originally thought the Cali wave would develop out in the Plains later this week but the ridge is to strong. Could this behave differently next cycle?? Yes, it very well could. The next major hurricane to develop in the GOM later this week will be an interesting GOM connection in the winter months. Thirdly, the good Ol' North American Vortex is back and it means business this season. It will not only lock in the cold for our continent this cold season but I'm seeing some peculiar signals that it will also "pump" the Greenland/N Atlantic Ridge this season. As we move forward a few days, the 1st significant storm system of the new LRC is coming into the picture late this weekend and more so early next week. The models had ZERO clue on the Blocking pattern that is now showing impressive signals which will likely be signature features, or rather, long term-long wave patterns. Have you noticed how much farther south this energy tracks through the Rockies this weekend into early next week??? Blocking is looking prevalent and this is the perfect slot whereby you want storms to track during the heart of Winter. Knowing seasonal variances in the jet stream will likely shift south, I'm intrigued by this storm for many reasons but lets see it develop first. I'll finish the post with this comment because I feel it is important for the long haul. Did the models just drink the "cool aid"??? Boy, was this a BIG miss by both the American and Euro in the longer range as they had no idea of the magnitude of blocking that looks to be on the agenda. Hello Greenland Block and SW Ridge (creates a unique "Slider" storm track) just off the Cali coast. The result from this major flip in the models overnight is a MUCH colder and stormier pattern across our Sub. Remember those Bearing Sea storms during the end of Sept??? They are poised to cycle through and this will be our 1st one early next week. 00z EPS Day 10 500mb pattern...had zero clue of the W NAMER ridge last week as it was portraying a +EPO which has now turned negative. If the models are this bad handling the blocking patterns, how could we trust the LR climate models that pretty much show barely any high lat blocking??? Needless to say, it's going to be a fun season from what I'm seeing very early on. Get ready to see some flakes fly for some of you farther west and north. Good to see the 12z runs are digging that storm further south and bringing some much needed rain to Neb and Iowa. The Dec version could be a real good snow producer for many on here. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 I just got word one of my close friends landed into CUN and he asking me..."Is there a Hurricane coming?" Ummm, yaaa buddy! I told him to take videos and pictures of this monster that's heading his way. #StormChaserVito 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 Today's 12z runs are getting rather interesting for a couple of reasons: 1) Remnants of Hurricane Delta may track farther west than previous runs towards the OHV and/or parts of the eastern MW/GL's region 2) That storm early next week is digging farther south into Rockies and eventually the central Plains 12z Ukie... 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 I hope SEMI gets at least some moisture from Delta. Rainfall here could be used. Key Note: Delta’s rapid intensification from 40 mph winds to 110 mph in just 24 hours is the most an October Atlantic named storm has ever intensified, since Hurricane Wilma back in 2005. Wow! 4 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 3 hours ago, Sparky said: Get well my friend! Same to you, hoping we get through this virus quickly with no lasting affects. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 37 minutes ago, Niko said: I hope SEMI gets at least some moisture from Delta. Rainfall here could be used. Key Note: Delta’s rapid intensification from 40 mph winds to 110 mph in just 24 hours is the most an October Atlantic named storm has ever intensified, since Hurricane Wilma back in 2005. Wow! The current forecasted track for Delta has it making landfall dangerously close to where Hurricane Laura came ashore. Some of the model trends appear to be pulling the system even further west, possibly making landfall closer to Lake Charles, Louisiana - they definitely don't need another storm in that area. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 Euro is teasing me with potential first flakes around D8. Also shows a dusting in Beltrami's yard. 2 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 16 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said: The current forecasted track for Delta has it making landfall dangerously close to where Hurricane Laura came ashore. Some of the model trends appear to be pulling the system even further west, possibly making landfall closer to Lake Charles, Louisiana - they definitely don't need another storm in that area. Indeed. That is the last thing they need. In the meantime, Hurricane Delta has exploded into a CAT4 "Powerhouse" as it heads toward Mexico's Yukcatan Pennisula. Btw: Hope you get a speedy recovery! 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 13 hours ago, Tom said: This post may be a bit long as there is a LOT going on in this changing weather pattern and it's looking quite exciting, especially when you consider what potential this all means as we head deeper into the cold season. Today, is on average the 1st day of the new LRC in the mid latitudes (where we live) as the sun has set up north near the North Pole where the new LRC pattern is already in progress....it sure is looking fascinating! So, here we are on Oct 6th and taking a look at the 500mb vorticity map below some interesting features I see that bode well for our folks out west. Take a look at that little feature off the west coast of Cali (albeit it weak). I've been following this energy over the past week and it holds a big clue to what this will mean down the road in the colder months as the jet strengthens. What does this mean for us?? IMO, this is a clue to me that in December the jet stream will be targeting Cali as LRC cycle #2 cycles through. Some of the climate models have S Cali bone dry this winter but this may not be the case as we will probably have systems target this region throughout the winter months. The second feature I'd like to point out is in the Caribbean where we may have a major Hurricane strike the GOM coastline by this weekend. I originally thought the Cali wave would develop out in the Plains later this week but the ridge is to strong. Could this behave differently next cycle?? Yes, it very well could. The next major hurricane to develop in the GOM later this week will be an interesting GOM connection in the winter months. Thirdly, the good Ol' North American Vortex is back and it means business this season. It will not only lock in the cold for our continent this cold season but I'm seeing some peculiar signals that it will also "pump" the Greenland/N Atlantic Ridge this season. As we move forward a few days, the 1st significant storm system of the new LRC is coming into the picture late this weekend and more so early next week. The models had ZERO clue on the Blocking pattern that is now showing impressive signals which will likely be signature features, or rather, long term-long wave patterns. Have you noticed how much farther south this energy tracks through the Rockies this weekend into early next week??? Blocking is looking prevalent and this is the perfect slot whereby you want storms to track during the heart of Winter. Knowing seasonal variances in the jet stream will likely shift south, I'm intrigued by this storm for many reasons but lets see it develop first. I'll finish the post with this comment because I feel it is important for the long haul. Did the models just drink the "cool aid"??? Boy, was this a BIG miss by both the American and Euro in the longer range as they had no idea of the magnitude of blocking that looks to be on the agenda. Hello Greenland Block and SW Ridge (creates a unique "Slider" storm track) just off the Cali coast. The result from this major flip in the models overnight is a MUCH colder and stormier pattern across our Sub. Remember those Bearing Sea storms during the end of Sept??? They are poised to cycle through and this will be our 1st one early next week. 00z EPS Day 10 500mb pattern...had zero clue of the W NAMER ridge last week as it was portraying a +EPO which has now turned negative. If the models are this bad handling the blocking patterns, how could we trust the LR climate models that pretty much show barely any high lat blocking??? Needless to say, it's going to be a fun season from what I'm seeing very early on. Get ready to see some flakes fly for some of you farther west and north. Dude! That energy in the panhandle region at d6-ish would be "choice" in winter. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 5 hours ago, Niko said: Indeed. That is the last thing they need. In the meantime, Hurricane Delta has exploded into a CAT4 "Powerhouse" as it heads toward Mexico's Yukcatan Pennisula. Btw: Hope you get a speedy recovery! Thanks Niko! It's been a stressful time in our household, however I feel that we are going to get through it fine. I have actually felt better today than I have over the last few days, so that's a plus. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 The GFS and Euro are way different for Saturday. GFS keeps trending colder and now has highs only in the low to mid 60s with windy conditions. The Euro shows mid to upper 70s and about perfect fall weather. I sure hope the Euro is right. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 41 minutes ago, bud2380 said: The GFS and Euro are way different for Saturday. GFS keeps trending colder and now has highs only in the low to mid 60s with windy conditions. The Euro shows mid to upper 70s and about perfect fall weather. I sure hope the Euro is right. Over here in Eastern Nebraska we are locked into highs in the low and mid 80's through Sunday with not a drop of rain in the forecast through the weekend (the drought continues to deepen here)... the AC went back on today after not having it on for over a week and a half. It looks like we should see a decent drop back to more normal temperatures and maybe some much-needed rain by early next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 12 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said: Over here in Eastern Nebraska we are locked into highs in the low and mid 80's through Sunday with not a drop of rain in the forecast through the weekend (the drought continues to deepen here)... the AC went back on today after not having it on for over a week and a half. It looks like we should see a decent drop back to more normal temperatures and maybe some much-needed rain by early next week. Same thing here. AC is still running tonight. Had football the last 2 nights. Very warm with just a slight breeze. Just can’t break this almost 6 month pattern. NWS Hastings is talking chance of rain next week, but breaking a drought is tough. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 Interesting AFD update. No wonder this afternoon's sky was a classic "October sky" with jet streak clouds galore. This is unique wording in my memory fwiw. Quote .UPDATE... Issued at 729 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2020 I have increased our risk for showers north of Route 20 for late this evening. That is one serious jet core (160 to 170 knots) heading our way tonight. This is one of those classic setups with a good low level response (65 knot low level jet goes under the 165 knot jet core). There is strong 1000/850 moisture transport ahead of the jet core, aimed at central Lower Michigan (where the upper and lower jets cross each other). There is an area of showers and thunderstorms currently over Northern Wisconsin and western upper Michigan. What is missing is deep moisture. Even so the dynamics area so strong that it may make up for that some. After all there are currently storms in northern WI. The core of the upper jet crosses over northern Lower Michigan after midnight. Location in the left front exit region of that jet will surely see rain tonight. However even the most northeast part of our CWA is south of that jet core. Even so we do get from around 10 pm till around 2 am, the area near and north of Route 20, will have surface convergence under the maximum upper divergence. So it seems we should get a least a few rain showers from this. I updated the grids/zones with higher pop north of Route 20 after 10 pm. The strong winds will keep the air mixed so I increased the low temperature a few degrees too. Aviation update: Meanwhile we have a 160 knot polar jet core heading toward central Lower Michigan tonight. Anyone flying between 25,000 and 35,000 ft, near and north of I-96 will have winds of 150 to 160 knots from the northwest (possibly greater than 160 knots). This will result in moderate to extreme jet stream related turbulence between 03z and 09z. As that upper level jet crosses Michigan tonight it will create a low level jet that will be nearly perpendicular to the upper jet. In the 03z to 09z time frame expect 40 to 65 knots of wind from the southwest. This will result in low level wind shear. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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