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October 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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10 hours ago, Niko said:

I hope SEMI gets at least some moisture from Delta. Rainfall here could be used.

Key Note: Delta’s rapid intensification from 40 mph winds to 110 mph in just 24 hours is the most an October Atlantic named storm has ever intensified, since Hurricane Wilma back in 2005. Wow!

Looking good per GRR

Quote

- Rain early next week

We will be watching forecast trends for the post landfall path of
the tropical cyclone over the weekend into early next week. At
this point it appears the bulk of the tropical moisture remains
south of Lower Michigan and separate from the upper trough moving
eastward from the Western CONUS. This trough could still tap some
residual moisture as deep south-southeasterly flow occurs ahead of
it.

So even without the remnants of the tropical cyclone, we do expect
potentially heavy rain on Monday or Tuesday with high precipitable
water values in place along with a slow moving surface front and
upper level diffluence. QPF amounts over an inch appear possible.

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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10 hours ago, Niko said:

Indeed. That is the last thing they need.

In the meantime, Hurricane Delta has exploded into a CAT4 "Powerhouse" as it heads toward Mexico's Yukcatan Pennisula.

Btw: Hope you get a speedy recovery!

My older sister had major spine surgery and is finally due to go home Thursday in Baton Rouge, LA which looks to be in the current "cone" per the NHC for Friday. While quite far inland, they could still have disruptive side-effects just like they did when Andrew made his 2nd landfall there the year after they bought their home in 1991.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Seeing this map and the hurricane named "Delta" reminded me of my father's story about how he endured 66 hrs of winds on a small pacific island during WW2. This was prior to named storms but later it was known as "Typhoon Cobra". A bad weather forecast ended up in the tragic loss of nearly 800 USN sailors and substantial loss of equipment. At the time Admiral Halsey's fleet was in the Typhoon's grip, they were "lost" as the communications of that era were archaic by today's standards. News reports were saying they didn't know the whereabouts of the fleet, but the morning the storm abated, my dad who was himself in a communications corp, walked over the sand dunes and there was the entire fleet parked inside this ring of islands that offered a natural shelter. Reading this wiki article, one of the carriers turned sideways to the winds and tilted so far over the deck had waves washing over. Now that had to be scary stuff, even if you were at war. (click on attachment to enlarge for reading)

 

 

Typhoon Cobra-1944.PNG

20201006 noaad3.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Its a warm, breezy morning with a nice SW breeze and current temp of 62F.  Had the window cracked open downstairs and the room had that "fresh" autumn smell to it....ahh, not a bad Tuesday morning!  On the flip side of things, my buddy down in Cancun had to evacuate from the hotel (state law) right when they were supposed to check in yesterday as they arrived from the airport.  That's gotta suck.  He did manage to venture to the beach and said the waves were massive as Delta churned in the Caribbean.  Their whole crew had to take a 3 hour bus ride inland where they would ride out the storm.  If Delta is as bad as they say, CUN is going to withstand some major damage.  God speed to those in the vicinity of this storm.

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So, the 00z EPS has done a complete 180 near the NE PAC or W NAMER from 2 days ago...here was the 5-day mean for the same period just two days ago for Week 2....

 

1.png

 

 

Current run...hello west coast ridge and eastern Canada block that later turns into a stout Greenland Block.  Seems to me the models keep missing these key blocking patterns that will drive our wx pattern.  The end result is a colder and wetter pattern heading into next week.  The BSR is going to have a BIG win if this turns out to be right.

 

 

2.png

 

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Here in parts of west Michigan we had a odd overnight. I went to bed with a temperature of 57 and when I woke up the reading here was 60 so I did not think much of that. Until I had a text from a friend who said that it was a warm night (yes temperatures in the upper 50’s to near 60 are warm for October) Then he mentioned that it was 69 at his house. And I looked at the hourly reading and wow the official reading at GRR jump up from 60 to 66 at 4AM and here at my house it jumped up to 68. But is now back down to 60.

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NWS Hastings says the earliest potential of the next Frost/Freeze would be around Oct. 15 or Oct. 16.  I have been in two Frost Advisories so far.  The coldest I have seen is 33 in one and 35 in the other so I believe NWS will continue issuing for most of the region.   For my location, Nov. 4th of 1998 is the latest Frost in history.  Earliest Frost for me is Sept. 20, 1991.  However, the way this year has gone, nothing at all would surprise me.

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I have to say that the color of the trees changing is the best I've seen in years.  I'm guessing the dry weather along with some cool then hot weather has played a role.  Had quite a few leaves blowing around last weekend.  If we get a strong wind to come through in the next week, we'll lose a 1/3 of more of the leaves.  My front yard tree has already lost about 1/4 of the leaves and the color change on the rest is well ahead of the past few years from what I remember.  

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17 hours ago, Bryan1117 said:

Thanks Niko! It's been a stressful time in our household, however I feel that we are going to get through it fine. I have actually felt better today than I have over the last few days, so that's a plus. 

You bet!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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It is a windy day today as a dry CF will swing on through my area. Shower activity will be found to my north, unfortunately.  Winds are gusting to 30 mph at times and along w that, a very pleasant temp of 70F.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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13 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Looking good per GRR

 

I hope this pans out amigo. It will be awesome to get some tropical rains here. Thanks for posting it! 👊

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I have put the cover on the AC and put most of the hoses away. I am kind of lucky I only have two small trees in the yard and what leave I do get will not come until later in the month and if I have to I can wait until spring. The sun is out here and it is kind of windy with a temperature of 66.. There are clouds off to the north.

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It is noticeably cooler this morning with a current temp right at the average low of the day (46F).  Another stunner expected today with calmer winds and a high of 70F with abundant sunshine.  The weather for the remainder of this week looks absolutely amazing and you betta get out and enjoy it bc massive changes are heading our way come mid/late next week.  Before then, a high near 80F both Fri and possibly Sat with nothing but sunshine...Indian Summer baby!  I'm probably going to put my hoses and patio furniture away this weekend and do what @WestMJim did and cover up my A/C.

 

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Gosh, where do I begin???  Holy smokes did both the mid and LR modeling do a major flip for next week's weather and for the rest of October.  My goodness, but I'm almost dumbfounded how badly the modeling is handling the blocking near and far across the vicinity of our continent.  I'll explain in this LR post which will feature the likelihood of the 1st Freezes of this Autumn season.

In terms of the teleconnections, every single model has locked on to the idea of a negative to neutral EPO/-AO/-NAO/+PNA pattern for Week 2.  In layman terms, this pattern is poised to unleash the seasons coldest air and possible first flakes of the season for some peeps on here.  The eastern CONUS is going to get cold...I could see possible records being set the following weekend (17th-18th) for places near the GL's/MW/OHV.  In fact, for the 1st time this season, the 00z EPS showed a faint hint of snow in some of the ensemble members across the OHV.  For a model to "see" this at this range tells me that it's gonna get cold.  The BSR is going to be a great long lead forecasting tool bc none of the models were showing a massive cool down next week.  In fact, I remember the Euro weeklies and CFSv2 weeklies a couple weeks ago advertising a massive ridge pattern.  Both of those models did not see the -EPO pattern.  Are the SST's playing a role in the NE PAC???  Cold eastern/central equatorial PAC???  I believe so....it appears to me that we are on the verge of heading into a cold pattern after a nice stretch of weather this week.

 

Y202010.D0712_gls.png

 

 

 

JMA weeklies have trended colder for the eastern Sub in Week 2...

 

Y202010.D0712_gl2.png

 

The west coast ridge pops and locks for the remainder of the month...

Y202010.D0712_gl0.png

 

Check out the Week 2 500mb pattern below that shows the Aleutian Low, West Coast Ridge, Scandinavian Ridge and Greenland Block....this is literally a dream pattern if it would be winter....I'm eyeing a storm riding up somewhere across the deep south into the OHV or Apps during the 15th-17th time frame that correlates with the East Asian Rule from this storm system below which is going to track near Japan.

 

ecmwf_mslpaNorm_wpac_3.png

 

The CFSv2 weeklies are trending wetter now as we get closer in time for next week into parts of the Plains/MW...

 

wk1.wk2_20201007.NA.png

Week 3-4...

Temp...

 

Y202010.D0712_gl2.png

 

If the JMA weeklies are right, I could see some late season tropical storm and/or hurricane hits along the EC...again, the BSR suggests there to be some big time storms to hit the eastern CONUS and I'm almost certain there will be a GOM connection.  IMO, this may be one of the most interesting Octobers our nation across the East has had in a long time.  Finally, notice the W PAC coming alive...re-curving late season Typhoon's anyone???  #FlipTheScript2020

 

Y202010.D0712_gl0.png

 

3.png

2.png

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

Gosh, where do I begin???  Holy smokes did both the mid and LR modeling do a major flip for next week's weather and for the rest of October.  My goodness, but I'm almost dumbfounded how badly the modeling is handling the blocking near and far across the vicinity of our continent.  I'll explain in this LR post which will feature the likelihood of the 1st Freezes of this Autumn season.

In terms of the teleconnections, every single model has locked on to the idea of a negative to neutral EPO/-AO/-NAO/+PNA pattern for Week 2.  In layman terms, this pattern is poised to unleash the seasons coldest air and possible first flakes of the season for some peeps on here.  The eastern CONUS is going to get cold...I could see possible records being set the following weekend (17th-18th) for places near the GL's/MW/OHV.  In fact, for the 1st time this season, the 00z EPS showed a faint hint of snow in some of the ensemble members across the OHV.  For a model to "see" this at this range tells me that it's gonna get cold.  The BSR is going to be a great long lead forecasting tool bc none of the models were showing a massive cool down next week.  In fact, I remember the Euro weeklies and CFSv2 weeklies a couple weeks ago advertising a massive ridge pattern.  Both of those models did not see the -EPO pattern.  Are the SST's playing a role in the NE PAC???  Cold eastern/central equatorial PAC???  I believe so....it appears to me that we are on the verge of heading into a cold pattern after a nice stretch of weather this week.

 

Y202010.D0712_gls.png

 

 

 

JMA weeklies have trended colder for the eastern Sub in Week 2...

 

Y202010.D0712_gl2.png

 

The west coast ridge pops and locks for the remainder of the month...

Y202010.D0712_gl0.png

 

Check out the Week 2 500mb pattern below that shows the Aleutian Low, West Coast Ridge, Scandinavian Ridge and Greenland Block....this is literally a dream pattern if it would be winter....I'm eyeing a storm riding up somewhere across the deep south into the OHV or Apps during the 15th-17th time frame that correlates with the East Asian Rule from this storm system below which is going to track near Japan.

 

ecmwf_mslpaNorm_wpac_3.png

 

The CFSv2 weeklies are trending wetter now as we get closer in time for next week into parts of the Plains/MW...

 

wk1.wk2_20201007.NA.png

Week 3-4...

Temp...

 

Y202010.D0712_gl2.png

 

If the JMA weeklies are right, I could see some late season tropical storm and/or hurricane hits along the EC...again, the BSR suggests there to be some big time storms to hit the eastern CONUS and I'm almost certain there will be a GOM connection.  IMO, this may be one of the most interesting Octobers our nation across the East has had in a long time.  Finally, notice the W PAC coming alive...re-curving late season Typhoon's anyone???  #FlipTheScript2020

 

Y202010.D0712_gl0.png

 

3.png

2.png

Loving these recent trends. I'm ready for it! Thanks for the update, Tom.

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22 hours ago, Niko said:

You bet!

I got confirmation last night that I did test positive for COVID-19 (from my test last Friday). I feel like I might be on the mend from this thing though, as I have felt much better the last 24 hours and my sense of taste is starting to come back. My sense of smell is still not there yet, however the constant headaches and sore throat are relaxing a bit, and I have a dry cough that is similar to the ones I get with a cold - nothing worse than that. 

I can't wait to get out of the house though, I am usually always on the go so it has been a rough last couple of weeks being stuck at home. Thankful my new job has me constantly busy answering e-mails and phone calls, so that's helped keep me busy.

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53 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Euro is very progressive. After Monday, we don't seem to be in the same pattern for more than a few days. I can live with that. The only thing that stays constant is a West coast ridge.

Euro 2.png

Euro 3.png

Euro 5.png

West coast ridge is brutal for me.  Hope the ridge breaks down!

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4 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Latest drought map. 

 

Amazing how quickly the moderate and severe drought areas have expanded across the state throughout this summer and fall. 

Here's a crazy number on the depth of this drought... normal annual rainfall for Omaha through October 8th is 26.41 inches... our current 2020 rainfall so far is 13.70 - nearly a 13 inch deficit. Hopefully the pattern will change in the next month or so, and deliver us some moisture over the Winter months - I really don't even care at this point if it's rain or snow, just hoping we see some decent moisture across the state to keep this drought from getting worse. 

More salt in the wound with another near 90 degree day on the docket for tomorrow (it better be the last one, however it's 2020 so we better not rule anything out)... at this point, we might as well break the record high for the day. 

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Happy Friday!  #TGIF...while its a cool start to the morning (47F), temps will rebound amidst strong SW winds and temps will surge to near 80F today along with abundant sunshine.  What a day it should be.  Smokey skies may mix in later in the day, however, so not as blue of skies.  Might be the last 80F of the season...time will tell.

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It's that time of year, well, actually...it's a bit early for this but I took a look at the GEFS/GEPS 10mb strat forecasts and both models are suggesting a weakened PV.  The modeling is showing an elongated PV stretched out and funneling cold air into North America.  Sign of the times???  Solar Minimum???  Whatever view you have, this is happening way early in the season for the modeling to suggest this...let's see if it transpires.  #CrossPolarFlow

 

1.gif

 

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My wife and me are going on a short road trip today. The plan is it take some back roads up to Houghton Lake to look at the color on the trees. And then have lunch at a a small park on Houghton Lake call Trestle Park. 
The overnight low here at my house was 40 and it looks like the official low at GRR was 39. At this time it is 43 and clear here.

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5 minutes ago, westMJim said:

My wife and me are going on a short road trip today. The plan is it take some back roads up to Houghton Lake to look at the color on the trees. And then have lunch at a a small park on Houghton Lake call Trestle Park. 
The overnight low here at my house was 40 and it looks like the official low at GRR was 39. At this time it is 43 and clear here.

A great idea to take advantage of this gorgeous weather!  Have fun and take a lot of pics!

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

The models are dialing up some Octobrrrrrr chill for later next week/weekend.  Yikes, this is shaking up to be a winter-like blast of early season cold for the Upper MW/Plains...and...possible 1st flakes???

 

1.png!

2.png

This would be a shock to the system for us in the Central Plains as we may hit record highs of close to 90 degrees today.  A/C and lawn sprinklers are still running as if it was summer.  I hope this verifies.

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4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Does anyone know what impacts if any the WPO has on weather?

A -WPO usually suggests a cold and stormy eastern CONUS in fall and winter.  It typically means the west PAC is active with tropical systems.

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