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October 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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About to get hvy rain soon and some wind outta this line of showers. Most storms have weaken as they make their way across the state. Jaster, you probably got hit good w these storms earlier this evening. Anyways, it clears rapidly once this CF rolls on through, w starlit skies and chillier temps. Lows will dip into the 40s. Nothing compared to the colder readings coming by weeks end.

Key Note: Colors here are at near peak. Beautiful scenery at spots.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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3 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

"went on" more like it. That's a year old. Elsewhere was posted a CONUS map showing which calendar month had the greatest (+) departure from average. Just so happens for our area it is indeed September which has become "hot" compared to historical norms. We finally had one buck that trend in 2020. After the streak of warm years 10/11/12 it looked like permanent heat was the new normal. Then we had 13/14/15 when we could hardly buy a warm stretch. Overall we are most certainly in a warm era, which is a good thing since civilization has always thrived in such, but suffered during prolonged cold periods. The warmth also seems to have contributed to more moisture available for snow during winter which has made for quite the stretch of AN snow fall seasons around here.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

About to get hvy rain soon and some wind outta this line of showers. Most storms have weaken as they make their way across the state. Jaster, you probably got hit good w these storms earlier this evening. Anyways, it clears rapidly once this CF rolls on through, w starlit skies and chillier temps. Lows will dip into the 40s. Nothing compared to the colder readings coming by weeks end.

Key Note: Colors here are at near peak. Beautiful scenery at spots.

Was in Saugatuck along the lake when the storms hit there about 4 pm. Normally a very protected quaint town but winds/rain combo was impressive. Back home to find the rare street puddles in Marshall. Airport received the forecast 0.25" over 90 minutes and brought down a ton of leaves on the streets. Nice to see legit rainfall after the last event was a whiff around here. Nature's had a long wait for a drink.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Epic bust last night and early this AM for the Des Moines area. 100% chance of rain (between 1/4 and 1/2 inch) ((as late as 1am today)) and we managed a measly "TR" at the airport. Dallas CTY- just W of DSM, was actually put into a severe thunderstorm watch for the shortest duration I can ever remember - 1 hour- before SPC realized they jumped the gun. At least they got it right as DMX persisted in 100% chance. It failed 100%. Just glad this was not a winter storm.

 

BTW- .57" of rain here since 9/11/20. Ground is rock hard and never seen the Des Moines and Raccoon Rivers so low.  Drought breads drought.....

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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GFS showing snow for many. Either way- Grizzcoat is out of summer hibernation and  back for the season!!!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=ncus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2020101300&fh=192

 

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Yesterday's CF that swept through during the early afternoon ignited a few severe storms in N IN that dropped some hail.  More importantly, a United Flight flew through one of these stronger cells over LM that caused some severe damage to the windshield prompting an emergency landing.  Thank God nothing terrible happened.

https://wgntv.com/news/united-flight-headed-to-washington-d-c-returns-to-chicago-after-hail-cracks-windshield/

Edit: I just saw a short clip on the local TV news about this scary event and it happened around 1:53pm which was right when the CF passed on through.  One of the passengers said the turbulunce was wild shaking the plane up/down and sideways, but the scariest part was the loud sound of the hail hitting the plane.

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Say it ain't so, but we may be looking at October Snow for parts of the Plains/Upper MW early next week.  @FAR_Weather@Beltrami Island @Madtownand the rest of our MN peeps, the 00z EPS saying Winter coming early for you.  

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00z Euro Op bringing back the system for early next week...major cold heading down in the central CONUS from all indication next week and into the following week.  The atmosphere is going to show us wx enthusiasts a wild case of wx porn given the magnitude of blocking that will take shape.

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The 1st exhibit of this year's LRC will showcase  a massive Vortex to spin and twirl smack dab in the middle of Canada.  Quite a pretty loop and one you don't see often.  It's amazing how blocked up this pattern is going to get.  I don't think we have seen an October like this one before in many many years.  Maybe 2009???

One other fascinating feature to this developing LRC is the energy that spins down near the Baja and gets cut-off from the main flow.  This was a storm that tracked near So Cal this past Saturday/Sunday and I believe in future cycles this will play a role to a SW Flow pattern and spark the STJ during the winter months.  Notice how that trough maintains itself offshore the SW coast of the U.S. 

1.gif

 

Suddenly, all the models are turning more and more active for the central/eastern part of the Sub.

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_6.png

 

Brutal cold coming down from the Arctic early and often....

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_8.png

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The latest Euro Weeklies have abruptly turned cold for basically all of us on here and a lot wetter for the MW/GL's region and a sliver across the Plains states.  Trends are what we look for and if you had paid attn to the weeklies over the last few runs they were bone dry for literally the entire CONUS except for the SE and East Coast.  I'll add that the development of a SER among the modeling is creating this wetter pattern.  I did not see this coming based on the LR tools and BSR.  Good signs moving forward. 

 

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Looking out much farther, the model is seeing something that has been flashed in year's past, but this time I got a good feeling that November (it should have a decent warm period early in the month) will turn very cold around Thanksgiving.  Got a pretty good feeling about this.  Certain things I've been looking at are starting to show up in the Strat. 

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I recorded 0.44″ of rain here yesterday in two very heavy showers. I did not seen any hail nor was there any thunder to report here. The leaves around here are near full color and there was a lot of leave fall yesterday. The high here at my house was 71 and the official high at the airport was 70. The overnight low here at my house was a cool 38 and at this time it is clear and 39.

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12 hours ago, jaster220 said:

"went on" more like it. That's a year old. Elsewhere was posted a CONUS map showing which calendar month had the greatest (+) departure from average. Just so happens for our area it is indeed September which has become "hot" compared to historical norms. We finally had one buck that trend in 2020. After the streak of warm years 10/11/12 it looked like permanent heat was the new normal. Then we had 13/14/15 when we could hardly buy a warm stretch. Overall we are most certainly in a warm era, which is a good thing since civilization has always thrived in such, but suffered during prolonged cold periods. The warmth also seems to have contributed to more moisture available for snow during winter which has made for quite the stretch of AN snow fall seasons around here.

Yes I agree, and I’ld much rather have a bit of warming than another ice age, which would be disastrous since we couldn’t raise crops or food! Ever notice how most of the world’s wealth, manufacturing, consumerism, etc is in the temperate zones? There aren’t nearly as many people living in colder places like central Canada, Ak, etc. 

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

00z Euro Op bringing back the system for early next week...major cold heading down in the central CONUS from all indication next week and into the following week.  The atmosphere is going to show us wx enthusiasts a wild case of wx porn given the magnitude of blocking that is will take shape.

Seven days out, otherwise I'd go absolutely nuts over the terribleness of that map for me.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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I doubt that I’ll see as much snow this month though, as I did just last October when I got 7.5” from two events at the end of that month! That was the most I’ve ever recorded in October, but I suppose there’s an outside chance it could happen two consecutive years.

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5 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Seven days out, otherwise I'd go absolutely nuts over the terribleness of that map for me.

This won't be the last chance for you...I see plenty of them as northern stream riders looking to be common...

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FGF on the weekend snow chance:

Saturday through Monday...

For reference on overall confidence in any singular outcome of this
system`s future evolution; The weekend shortwave that is expected to
produce precipitation in some manner for our forecast area is
currently sitting over the Pacific Ocean, just south of the Aleutian
Islands. As a result, there is considerable spread between models
and ensemble members alike with regards to the intensity, timing,
and positioning of the upcoming system. With that being said, there
is a general consensus that the aforementioned shortwave will impact
and likely bring precipitation in some capacity to the forecast
area. Significant spread does certainly exist but the majority of
ensemble members are resolving snow as the likely precipitation
mode. It is worth stating that most ensemble members are resolving a
40% or lower chance of snowfall totals exceeding 1 inch. At this
time, will cap the potential at a chance for light snow showers,
with possible mixed to all liquid precipitation along the southern
CWA during daylight hours on Saturday, and a return to light snow
showers possible overnight Saturday through Sunday.
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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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NWS Hastings morning disco:

Models are starting to gain consistency in showing one or more
bands of precipitation moving into the area Saturday night through
Monday. Lots of uncertainty still exists, but given the cold air
in place, this could realistically end up being the first snowfall
of the season for portions of the area.
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Attm, its 57F under sunny skies. Simply gorgeous outside.☀️

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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44 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Is this a weekend event or early next week? Des Moines NWS has zero excitement about this.

Significant differences in model timing still, but the Euro and GFS have this coming through more on Monday or Tuesday, while the Canadian has this coming through on Sunday.  

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14 hours ago, jaster220 said:

"went on" more like it. That's a year old. Elsewhere was posted a CONUS map showing which calendar month had the greatest (+) departure from average. Just so happens for our area it is indeed September which has become "hot" compared to historical norms. We finally had one buck that trend in 2020. After the streak of warm years 10/11/12 it looked like permanent heat was the new normal. Then we had 13/14/15 when we could hardly buy a warm stretch. Overall we are most certainly in a warm era, which is a good thing since civilization has always thrived in such, but suffered during prolonged cold periods. The warmth also seems to have contributed to more moisture available for snow during winter which has made for quite the stretch of AN snow fall seasons around here.

Oops, you're right, that is from last year. Here's an updated article for September 2020: https://weather.com/en-IN/india/news/news/2020-10-11-september-earths-warmest-september-record-arctic-extent-second-lowest

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Looking at the ICON you really get a good idea of where the models are differing on this system.  The ICON tries to bring the storm in Sunday, but it appears to only send out a small piece of energy from the main wave, and that piece dries up and stalls out until the entire storm gets its act together and heads into the upper midwest dropping heavy snow in Minnesota.  So it would appear the differences lie in does this come out in multiple pieces, or one larger piece?  It will be interesting to watch the models flip flop on this in the coming days.  

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23 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Massive changes on the Euro.  The first storm just kind of strings out and then stalls and brings continuous rounds of rain and then eventually snow to the plains and high plains.

 

sn10_acc.us_c.png

 

qpf_acc.us_c.png

The EC has flashed this solution several times, including on the latest run.  The moisture would be very welcome!

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It can snow anywhere, but here, at least not just yet (preferably starting on Thanksgiving week or later and thereafter through all of Winter). Right now, I want to get cold rainstorms, followed by colder air behind the storm, windy conditions, along w leaves blowing around otg, sunny crisp days, cold nites w headlines reading "Frost and or Freeze Watch, or Warnings and etc.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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