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October 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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1 minute ago, Tom said:

What city do you live in up north now? Near Hayward?

Right now still back and forth between Manitowish Waters and Madison....cleaning out the house down there...We'll be in Mani Waters while looking for a house in Boulder Junction, Presque Isle or Manitowish.

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Hit the big "3" "O" this morning (30F). I'm not used to this dropping like a rock stuff, especially so frequently.

Would not be a good day to take the car ferry across Lake Michigan from Ludington.

 

20201017 GRR Waves graphic.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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In news that isn't news (up north anyways), it looks likely there was a minor snow dust-up overnight just a few counties north of here. Getting closer..

 

20201017 1226am NMI Radar.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

Yet another windy day on tap, another Wind Advisory hoisted with gusts approaching 50mph.  This is the second wind advisory of the week!  I'm getting this feeling the atmosphere is gearing itself up early and often this cold season.  My goodness, some early season ARCTIC  air is heading down through the heartland next weekend into the last week of October.  Holy smokes.  Ol' Man Winter has come out of hibernation and the "Nanook from the North" is going to make its presence as well driving south off the Arctic circle.

 

But First, Nature is going to lay down the foundation before some brutal early season cold arrives.  00z EPS next 10 days saying Winter coming early for our friends up north.  The northern stream seems to me like it wants to scream next week as an active La Nina type pattern sets up.  This part of the LRC will certainly looking very interesting, esp when you take a look at the entire picture of the blocking, Polar Vortex up north, coupled with an active wave train underneath the "belly of the beast".

2.png

 

00z Euro op...crazy snow fall amounts being spit out for this early in the season...

 

1.png

 

Snow cover has expanded and is growing at a rapid pace across Canada...

 

Forecast Image

 

cursnow_alaska.gif

 

Likewise, it has grown across central and eastern Siberia/Eurasia...

cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

 

The Northern Hemisphere is showing some fascinating signs early on that could lead towards severe winter in parts of our hemisphere this winter season.  Will it finally show up in the Lower 48 across the majority of the population??? 

This is pretty intense. Been a long time since I've experienced an autumn that felt like winter's freight train had left the arctic station and was bearing down. 1995's super early winter in NMI comes to memory. '89 would be the next one going back in time. I'm intrigued by the potential OHV systems you've been monitoring as well. That would be a huge omen for good around here.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Currently holding in the 40s under deep, blue sunny skies. Last nite once again, temps tumbled to below freezing (31F).

Near peak in my area now, if not peak already. Tree colors combined w the blue sky is a magnificent scenery. Post card picture.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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This is what I call perfection for the GL's area this upcoming Winter!

https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/lO6Qwgn3ym6WaAEHunW5lg--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTYxOS43ODk0NzM2ODQyMTA1/https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/MtgtdjcbImpTUP92PJ6UuA--~B/aD03MzY7dz0xMTQwO2FwcGlkPXl0YWNoeW9u/https://media.zenfs.com/en/miami_herald_mcclatchy_975/0ac14f4069270a8522e2fe11e1bb164e

 

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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37 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

12Z GFS continues the clipper train trend.

I'm rooting for a Saturday storm, as it's looking likely that whatever snow I get from that will probably stick around for a couple of days.

Very active. That energy next weekend into the following week looks interesting. The idea of one or two big systems has been showing up for a few days now.

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Tbh, I'll take a La Nina Winter pattern in a heart beat, but I feel that there is always a catch w this. As we all know, this type of weather pattern that occurs during a Winter season is (or, mostly is) volatile, which can also be annoying to most of us, just when the fun is happening. Either way, I'll sign and accept it, whether it pivots or not.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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18 minutes ago, iFred said:

Just did a significant user prune. Wiped out 4k accounts from the past 6 years that were spammers or just inactive with weird emails, like "axjio43@bigdaddysuggestivereferences.org". If you're reading this and can't log into your account or have a friend that can't log in, just register again and send me a DM.

Awesome! I do this also on my PC's. Accuracy is fantastic as well as size reduction.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Attm, its 53F under mostly sunny skies. Simply a great day outdoors for any activities. A light jacket is needed though.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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On 10/16/2020 at 7:31 AM, Hawkeye said:

It appears we hovered in the mid 30s all night and did not freeze, but I did just see the first snow flurries of the season.

I know this is late, but I had my first 32° low yesterday morning. Didn’t notice any frost though a few things got nipped a little. 
 

I didn’t notice any flakes, but parts of our community had a few sleet or hail balls in the afternoon 

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FGF is basically saying "I'll let the night guy handle it" to the Thursday clipper, lol.

They're saying that Tuesday's clipper will likely be limited to 2" in the lower elevations, which I actually agree with. The fact that the entire event will be during the day doesn't help.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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A bit of rain might be mixed with some wet snow flakes (not likely) tomorrow morning, but I’m more looking forward to the bigger system later next week. Hopefully we can get an inch of rain and some thunder which has really been lacking this fall. I like the Euro the best for heavy rainfall  at this time. The Icon now is pretty good too and also the Ukie, but the Ukie often shows those weird unrealistic patterns with rainfall.

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Hardier trees are dropping half-turned leafs after the past 2 nights below freezing. Across the countryside, there are still pockets of good to great color, and some where it's obviously past the colorful stage.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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11 hours ago, Jaycee said:

Last day before the leaves officially fell. These were taken in Winnetka, about 3 minutes away from the home alone house. It’s so incredibly pretty there! 

DD51297F-B885-4FF4-83CF-AB76C3D6130F.jpeg

AD7ED3F0-2C99-4246-BD87-474380F59025.jpeg

1660FB9D-08C6-4B67-98E4-F7539232C9B6.jpeg

I think of that movie every year around this time of year and at Christmas.

Thank you for sharing those!

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Ever since the Hudson Bay Vortex got established last week around the 13th, I counted at least 3 or 4 formidable waves/systems that have, or will have, tracked from the PAC NW/B.C. region across the northern half of the Sub Forum by this coming Fri.  This is quite the active and exciting pattern to begin analyzing the new LRC.  I can't wait to see what this will deliver in future cycles.  

With that being said, the next robust wave to target the Upper MW on Tue/Wed is looking to drop advisory level snows across MN and parts of NW WI according to the 00z Euro...

1.png

 

00z Ukie...

 

sn10_acc.us_nc.png

 

00z GFS...

 

snku_acc.us_nc.png

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The following weekend is certainly trending towards our first potential widespread winter storm of the season.  Except for those up north (esp @Fargo), many peeps across the central part of the Sub may be witnessing their 1st accumulating snowfall of the season.  Quite the setup is being advertised with a monstrous Canadian Arctic HP driving south, tanking -EPO, energy coming out of the central Rockies into the Plains states, GOM connection....we may have ourselves a large winter storm next weekend.

00z EPS by months end illustrating the potential aftermath of what's coming...woah, it's like nature wants to fast-forward 1 month...plus...not to mention, the cold that is on the table is almost unheard of at this time of year...@Hawkeye posted what the GFS is showing and the Euro is agreeing that lows may dip into the single digits, possibly sub zero across the UpperMW/Plains where there is snow OTG.

1.png

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Pounding at DSM airport!! .3 to .4 on snowboards ,, probably can muster a wet inch before sunrise.

PXL_20201018_095605112.jpg

PXL_20201018_095623716.jpg

Awesome!  I was tracking the radar and noticed the snow returns and thought of you actually...congrats!

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

Finally, some good opportunities for widespread precip heading into the heartland this coming week...I'd take a nice soaking this week to kick start this wetter pattern.

 

1.png

Looking forward to the good soaking, especially after mowing pastures yesterday.  We need it, the Dec version of this could be really fun!

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

The following weekend is certainly trending towards our first potential widespread winter storm of the season.  Except for those up north (esp @Fargo), many peeps across the central part of the Sub may be witnessing their 1st accumulating snowfall of the season.  Quite the setup is being advertised with a monstrous Canadian Arctic HP driving south, tanking -EPO, energy coming out of the central Rockies into the Plains states, GOM connection....we may have ourselves a large winter storm next weekend.

I've gotten accumulations but it's just been dustings so far. Let's get a few inches!

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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