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October 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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2 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said:

Took a break from social media and most things internet for a few months. Looking forward to some potential early season snows and storm tracking. Hope everyone has been well! 

Welcome back! I’ve been sick at least once this past summer, but nothing serious.

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6 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

The consensus is for at least some sort of ridiculous weather for the close of this month. Haven't witnessed modeling agree like this in a very long time.

Going to be exciting, if you're not already enjoying snow tonight or haven't already.

But what Tom showed is NOT ridiculous wx for those regions at the end of Oct. It might be if, say MSP beat their 30" storm like they got at Halloween in '91. They can and do get huge snows up that way this time of year. Now, if you or Tom or I got that then we'd really be talking epic stuff. Anyhow, I don't need to fast-forward into winter just yet, but I would like a good old fashioned autumn rainer tracking through the OHV. Not just to increase confidence in the new LRC for the winter, but we really could use a soaking around here. Tom mentioned something about an OHV low, but tbh I'm not seeing anything but I don't model watch until it's legit storm mode season.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Front yard of my place at 9am. Was probably more earlier, but certainly more than DSM city proper. .9" officially at the airport. (Mom visiting reason for car in yard and fall chores y'day).

PXL_20201018_135140016.jpg

PXL_20201018_135201330.jpg

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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1 hour ago, St Paul Storm said:

Took a break from social media and most things internet for a few months. Looking forward to some potential early season snows and storm tracking. Hope everyone has been well! 

I did too. Good to see you back. I came back here about a month ago. Looking good for you to have another serious winter. As usual, it's TBD for way over/down here. Tom feels blocking will rock and lock in more cold for a sustained winter, while NWS says blocking is NOT normally a thing during the typical La Nina and temps will roller-coaster up and down. There's also the historical risk that winter comes in so early that it's over after the holiday season. In those instances, by the time it's cold enough around here, we get about 4-5 weeks during December, then "poof what happened to winter?", just as it was getting good. Lots of question marks left at this point for the Lwr Lakes region.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Congrats to Peeps who got on the board with first snows already!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I slept through the snow this morning, so I saw nothing.  🤬  I woke up to 33º and about 0.2" of snow on the ground.  I was only expected mid to upper 30s, so I left out all my flower pots.  I hope they will be ok.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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48F currently w a few light rainshowers. Its damp and dreary outside.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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4 hours ago, St Paul Storm said:

Took a break from social media and most things internet for a few months. Looking forward to some potential early season snows and storm tracking. Hope everyone has been well! 

Good to hear from you buddy!  A few of us on here were hoping you were doing alright given the whole COVID-19 situation ongoing.  Glad to see ya back!

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I'm up in St Paul this weekend so idk if my place in IA got any snow. Just catching up on posts in here. Wow is all I have to say. Its crazy how fast we went from 80s and sun to potential multiple snow events and cold just in October. And all the reports of snow OTG across the middle of the sub this morning. Gettin it goin early!

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58 minutes ago, Tom said:

Good to hear from you buddy!  A few of us on here were hoping you were doing alright given the whole COVID-19 situation ongoing.  Glad to see ya back!

Thanks Tom. My time away wasn’t really specific to anything. Just needed a break during this weird year. Ironically though, I am awaiting the results on a COVID test. I’ve been exposed and just want to make sure I don’t have it. Crazy times! 

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The switch has been flipped and we've gone from mostly 80s to 40s/50s. Congrats to everyone who got snow, even Omaha got in on the action. I'm kinda glad nothing happened here because I woke up at noon 🥴

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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5 hours ago, jaster220 said:

But what Tom showed is NOT ridiculous wx for those regions at the end of Oct. It might be if, say MSP beat their 30" storm like they got at Halloween in '91. They can and do get huge snows up that way this time of year. Now, if you or Tom or I got that then we'd really be talking epic stuff. Anyhow, I don't need to fast-forward into winter just yet, but I would like a good old fashioned autumn rainer tracking through the OHV. Not just to increase confidence in the new LRC for the winter, but we really could use a soaking around here. Tom mentioned something about an OHV low, but tbh I'm not seeing anything but I don't model watch until it's legit storm mode season.

I was being more unspecified to the entire central us region as a whole. The central CONUS in going to go through a cold wave to close the month that is/looks to be pretty special in a lot of ways.

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Cloudy skies w showers advancing eastward per radar. Temp at around 55F.

Note: Tomorrow will be a very chilly day w highs only into the 4os w areas of morning frost. I would not be surprised if a few wet snowflakes mix in tomorrow evening w those rainshowers as temps drop back down into the 30s.

BTW: leaves are starting to fall off from trees here in SEMI, so I'd give it another week to enjoy the colors.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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2 hours ago, St Paul Storm said:

Thanks James! Hope you’re enjoying the brisk conditions here today. I raked leaves this morning for about 2 hours and I was frozen. 

We're doing the same today. Mowed the lawn and raked leaves. This flip has been crazy. My phone says 32° currently!

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This is reminiscent of last October with very early snows! But we know how the rest of the winter went. It was a nice winter for me, but not so much for those who love snow and cold. But it’s unlikely it will play nearly the same. 
 

I actually ended up seeing the first flakes beginning around 9:30 am. Later just before noon it snowed pretty good for a bit, but there was no accumulation of snow and just a trace of liquid since my last post.

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Temps look to warm-up big time by weeks end next week (flirting w 70F both Th n Fri), fortunately, this mild air looks to be transient. By the following weekend, temps take a nosedive. This will be a great opportunity to do last minute yard work.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Temps will drop here tanite w another frost looking likely by morning. Lows expected to fall to near freezing or below and there could also be a few spots where 20s could be possible.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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2 hours ago, Niko said:

Temps will drop here tanite w another frost looking likely by morning. Lows expected to fall to near freezing or below and there could also be a few spots where 20s could be possible.

GRR's AFD said they've ended frost/freeze season so no more headlines. Monday should be our first truly raw day around here.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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