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October 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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An actually good AFD from FGF, that's rare. 

Quote

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020

Several chances for snow are forecast within the long term,
particularly around Tuesday, Thursday/Friday, and late this weekend
into early next week. The colder than average temperature pattern is
also likely to continue.

Much of the northern CONUS will continue to be under the influence
of upper troughing throughout next week and potentially into the
following week. Varying solutions within the ensemble and
deterministic suites have their own flavor of how amplified segments
within the upper trough becomes along with passing embedded
shortwaves. However general consensus is to bring a shot of precip
mainly in the form of snow with each passing shortwave.

General consensus is to have the first shortwave move east across
the area around Tuesday. There are many similarities between this
wave and Saturday`s wave, which means there still remains some
inherent uncertainty revolving around exact placement, timing, and
intensity of this upcoming clipper. But as it stands now, there is a
general 1-4 swath forecast over the region, with best chances for
highest amounts in the higher elevations of west-central Minnesota.
Probably the biggest difference between this upcoming clipper and
Saturday`s clipper is the lack of mesoscale forcing expected, or
rather mesoscale forcing (fgen) is likely further displaced within
southern MN. This typically increases trust in modeled QPF,
although there still is some spread on the order of 0.1-0.25 inches
of QPF within ensemble members, which could translate to giving or
taking 1-3 inches in any given area.

The next wave following more of a hybrid clipper-WY low system is
progged to traverse the Dakotas into northern MN around
Thursday/Friday. This system is expected to have more moisture
content associated with it in addition to better synoptic and added
mesoscale forcing. This would increase the upper range for snow
potential, with even some models advertising a scary amount of snow
well exceeding warning criteria. However a very large amount of
uncertainty looms over this forecast with large spread in placement
and amount of snow. Therefore, not buying into these large snow
amounts at all..yet.

Finally, several ensemble and deterministic members are starting to
suggest a CO low type system to move into the Upper Midwest late
next weekend into early next week. An even further amount of
uncertainty accompanies this potential system, although it does
increase the general potential for precipitation including snowfall.
That is all I am confident in saying regarding this potential system.

With the general upper troughing allowing polar type air to dive
into the upper CONUS, below average temps will be likely at least
through late next week and probably beyond. This increases the
chance for snow with each shot of precip, but there is still some
influence from a mid to late Oct sun in determining ptypes
diurnally, ie better chance for snow at night with rain/snow during
the day.

 

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

GRR's AFD said they've ended frost/freeze season so no more headlines. Monday should be our first truly raw day around here.

Thanks for the update amigo! 👊

Raw is the correct word to use my friend as temps will not recover from the 40s for highs, along w some wet weather and would not be surprised if a wet snowshower gets mixed in, especially towards the evening hours.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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9 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

First flakes of the season falling onto Lincoln. It’s light and wet, but it’s snow. 

Exactly......Enjoy it! Go outside and breathe that cold, snowy air.

Tbh: I truly enjoy when snow is expected to develop and you can just smell the snow in the air, prior to its arrival. Great feeling!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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2 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

An actually good AFD from FGF, that's rare. 

 

Nice write-up.

That is what I like to see during the cold, Winter months, especially during Christmas time. Unlike last year when my highs were in the 50s on Christmas Eve.......🤨

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Currently, it is a very raw evening w readings in the low 40s and light drizzle. There is a breeze out there as well, which gives my area a wcf in the 30s. Dreary nite indeed.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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0.27" qpf from this evening's CF. Perhaps 0.6" on the week around here. Better than OH or IN I guess.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Had another quick one  to two tenths on my way to work. The snow from y'day morning surprisingly made it all the way to mid afternoon when the sun  came out, so they ground must not be that warm. Pavement is different deal.  It's odd seeing snow events back to back like this in OCT. Looks like another round around sunrise.

PXL_20201019_042646176.jpg

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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37 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said:

Point bumped up to 3-5” with heavy snow tomorrow. I’d go with the lower end of that based on a variety of things. But we’ll see. Looks fairly promising based on the relatively good model consensus. 
 

Tom I’d say fire up the first thread! 

My 2 concerns here are speed of the system and surface temps. Those could kill totals here. Doesn't really matter, sunshine and highs near 40 on Wednesday are going to kill everything off anyway.

 

Edit: Wow, didn't even see those 00Z runs. Guess it got colder at the surface because previously it was showing all rain for SoDak.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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38 minutes ago, Money said:

How’s everyone doing? Site looks great 

Not bad, hbu?  Taking it day by day and thankful for my health.  How was your summer?  I think Appleton got hit pretty good a few times.  Excited about this winter?

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Looks like TS Epsilon will be next in line. Keep in mind, we are closing in closer to tieing the record, which was set back in 2005, when the names reached all the way to Zeta. Speaking of Zeta, there is a good chance that forms down the road, as the tropics are gearing up again.

https://wordpress.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/greek-alphabet-delta.jpg?w=632

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Currently, temps are rather chilly here in SEMI, w 42F and sky conditions are reporting some light rain. It will be a gloomy, dreary October day, weatherwise. Some warmth is expected by weeks end (70s) and also along w that, comes some thunderstorms, which could be strong to severe as a sharp CF brings an end to the very mild air that will be poised here. I think, this will be the last of the 70s, for some time (probably until next year again), so might as well enjoy it and do some last minute activities around the house.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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.Not pounding as much as was just 10 mins ago and radar looks N for the best. But hey, it's OCT and the wood stove is cranking!!! A plus in my book any day.

PXL_20201019_154635387.jpg

PXL_20201019_154711430.jpg

PXL_20201019_154910913~2.jpg

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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7 minutes ago, james1976 said:

You're off to a great start already this season!

Let's hope it's more like 2009 OCT, than OCT of last year. ( for the following winter)

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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DSM airport just hit 31F. First sub 32F reading of the season. And it happened at 11AM. I wanna know when the last time THAT happened.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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8 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

I'm at work in Cedar Rapids (and finally in our new building I have a window in my office so I can see it snow!).  Radar looks great here, but dry air is winning out.  Hopefully it saturates soon, I'd love to see some flakes fly. 

Congrats on the window.  Yeah, the air is dry.  The wind is also from the northeast, so the snow will need to move solidly through Cedar Rapids before it reaches the ground here.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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