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October 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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6 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Des Moines NWS Twitter is ridiculous. Early morning forecast for less than an inch on grass. And the next tweets show snow covered roads with accidents. 

The biggest think that irks me is, since they can see the forecast is wrong, why didn't they issue some advisories and/or update the forecast?  They did issue the Squall Warning, which was good, but that was only for 3 counties and for a short period of time.  If CR is up to 4" already then a winter weather advisory should be issued.  It's not that hard. 

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Just now, bud2380 said:

The biggest think that irks me is, since they can see the forecast is wrong, why didn't they issue some advisories and/or update the forecast?  They did issue the Squall Warning, which was good, but that was only for 3 counties and for a short period of time.  If CR is up to 4" already then a winter weather advisory should be issued.  It's not that hard. 

Agree 100%

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Been working hand in hand with DMX as a CWO for 20+ years. Everything being =, if this was a severe event in late June- the grids would have exploded as such. Underforecasting would not be an issue and a BIG reason why I follow not in the summer. (much is overdone). This goes the otherway (sometimes in shoulder seasons) , they busted big time this time and many times in shoulder seasons.  But they (DMX) will cover tracks if asked. Bias being Bias, they (DMX) are clearly warm weather. Ask them on social media. I'am biased, but at least admit it. DMX is clearly warm weather biased, but have a difficult time explaining it away. again- 20+ years here in DMX CWA, and the bias is warm. Nothing agst that- and they do overdo a winter event from time to time, but if your a betting man/woman, bet the over in winter events here ( from what NWS says) and generally you will win out. This event is NOT the norm, just throws caution to what the hell happened?

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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No idea why, but DVN is not sending out spotter reports and the Mesonet snowfall map is still bare over eastern Iowa.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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5 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

No idea why, but DVN is not sending out spotter reports and the Mesonet snowfall map is still bare over eastern Iowa.

I noticed the same thing.  The only report is from Belle Plaine from 1030am and a 1/2".  I can only guess from my window, but looks like 2" on the ground here.  Definitely did not snow as hard as just a few miles up the road, but no complaints here nonetheless.  

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1 minute ago, james1976 said:

Were there any short term models at all showing anything of this magnitude that just got thrown to the side?

The 3k NAM did show a good burst moving across Iowa.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 minute ago, james1976 said:

Were there any short term models at all showing anything of this magnitude that just got thrown to the side?

Nope, no model had anything to this magnitude.  Several showed an inch or two at best, but that was it.  Here was the NAM which did about as well as any model.  

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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1 minute ago, james1976 said:

Were there any short term models at all showing anything of this magnitude that just got thrown to the side?

2-5" was the max I saw. And it dwindeled as HRRR and RAP went out. It obviously was underdone, but I wonder on how it models "show" accumulation with ground temps being as warm as they are? Do models take in to effect warm ground temps? (I do think most snow reports are overdone)- but still.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Cloudy and chilly w wet conditions still being persistent. Temp at 44F.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Look at what is looming to visit the lower 48....I have a feeling it will get mighty chilly here in the coming weekshttps://s.w-x.co/1019cold.jpg

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I finished with 4.4 inches.

Incredible.  I believe last year my largest snowfall for the entire season was 4.8" and it was the one that hit 2 days before Halloween.  I'm guessing I'll have about 2" down at my house based on a few pictures I saw in the area.  My kids got to make small snowmen so they were happy. 

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Mid October, middle of the day, 4.4" of snow with a 15 to 1 ratio.  That's not something we see often.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Just now, james1976 said:

Incredible stuff and I'm jealous but I have a feeling we're all gonna have plenty of opportunities this season. 

No doubt, northern Iowa will quickly catch up and surpass the Ankeny to Cedar Rapids corridor's snow totals once winter arrives.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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FGF really going balls deep in the warmer ensemble members (which are in the minority)

Quote

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020

Wednesday to Monday...A cool and active week continues with another
system expected to bring measurable snowfall to the area Thursday.
Wednesday will be a quiet day inbetween systems before another round
of snowfall moves across the area. Confidence continues to increase
with increasing moisture for the Thursday system though placement
remains more uncertain with ensemble QPFs 25 to 75 quartile ranging
from a quarter to near an inch at Fargo and Grand Forks. That high
spread means that the potential total snowfall from the system is
quite large. Also complicating the forecast will be a warm nose of
850mb temps lifting into the southern valley towards Fargo area with
a potential to lower snowfall totals with rain or sleet mixing into
the precipitation type the first half of Thursday. Will see the
potential for some blowing snow as winds ramp up in the afternoon
with up to 40kts in the northern portionso of the FA at 925mb
though temps in the upper 20s and low 30s will limit blowing
potential. This is beginning to look like the first large scale
winter system to bring travel impacts for the area.

 

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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11 hours ago, Clinton said:

Looks like we will all be busy tracking storms over the next 7 days or so.  Build a big glacier!

Not the 3 of us east of Chicago. LOL @ how it is like two worlds. Y'all got winter while we work on autumn. Feels like a continuation of last 2 winters.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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13 hours ago, Niko said:

Looks like TS Epsilon will be next in line. Keep in mind, we are closing in closer to tieing the record, which was set back in 2005, when the names reached all the way to Zeta. Speaking of Zeta, there is a good chance that forms down the road, as the tropics are gearing up again.

https://wordpress.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/greek-alphabet-delta.jpg?w=632

I wouldn't be too excited about chasing that record from 2005. That winter sucked big time around SMI. Basically it was one solitary month between Thanksgiving and Christmas, then nothing. Similar atmospheric dynamics are at play currently and the fact that we find ourselves looking at your hurricane list is proof. 05-06 is also one of the (negative) analog winters for us and perhaps the finest example of how front-loaded Nina can end up very disappointing.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

I wouldn't be too excited about chasing that record from 2005. That winter sucked big time around SMI. Basically it was one solitary month between Thanksgiving and Christmas, then nothing. Similar atmospheric dynamics are at play currently and the fact that we find ourselves looking at your hurricane list is proof. 05-06 is also one of the (negative) analog winters for us and perhaps the finest example of how front-loaded Nina can end up very disappointing.

Personally I would much rather have a front loaded winter. When was the last time we had a good December? I am so sick of waiting until February and March for winter to arrive. There is no better time for snow than Thanksgiving through New Years.  I know I'm not alone with these feelings. I'd take a mild back half of winter for a blockbuster December à la 2009 or 2000.

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Congrats to all those who experienced an impressive snow event yesterday.  The meso scale banding within this wave was something else.  It appears C IA was the epicenter but most of you in IA shared in the wealth.  I will say, this particular event was eerily similar in track and intensity (albeit in winter mode) as this past Summer's historic and tragic derecho event.  Not to mention, as I'm sure ya'll IA folks know by now, but that derecho was the most costly thunderstorm event in U.S. history (https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/10/17/iowa-derecho-damage-cost/)

Now, what I find very peculiar with both events is the similar track yesterday's event took place.  The strongest part of the thunderstorm complex almost had an identical track along I-80 that headed east as yesterday's snow band.  What's wild is the heaviest and strongest winds happened in those same cities that had the heaviest snow fall.  Crazy, huh??

1.png

 

 

Here is a radar loop of that entire event...http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=comprad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=120&interval=5&year=2020&month=8&day=10&hour=8&minute=0

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Ummm, what month is this again???  00z Euro and GFS bring down the Arctic Hammer this coming weekend and next week.  Wow, what an impressive discharge of early season arctic air down the heartland.  Heck, even our friend down south is close to seeing some Snow!  We'll see, but the pattern setting up shop is one that could deliver some historic cold and snow.

 

 

1.png

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5 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Craig's back!

Now all we need is Money, GDR, or ToastedRavs and we're back in business.

I'll see what I can do with ToastedRavs....

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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