james1976 Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Des Moines NWS Twitter is ridiculous. Early morning forecast for less than an inch on grass. And the next tweets show snow covered roads with accidents. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Truly incredible 2 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 6 minutes ago, james1976 said: Des Moines NWS Twitter is ridiculous. Early morning forecast for less than an inch on grass. And the next tweets show snow covered roads with accidents. The biggest think that irks me is, since they can see the forecast is wrong, why didn't they issue some advisories and/or update the forecast? They did issue the Squall Warning, which was good, but that was only for 3 counties and for a short period of time. If CR is up to 4" already then a winter weather advisory should be issued. It's not that hard. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Just now, bud2380 said: The biggest think that irks me is, since they can see the forecast is wrong, why didn't they issue some advisories and/or update the forecast? They did issue the Squall Warning, which was good, but that was only for 3 counties and for a short period of time. If CR is up to 4" already then a winter weather advisory should be issued. It's not that hard. Agree 100% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Been working hand in hand with DMX as a CWO for 20+ years. Everything being =, if this was a severe event in late June- the grids would have exploded as such. Underforecasting would not be an issue and a BIG reason why I follow not in the summer. (much is overdone). This goes the otherway (sometimes in shoulder seasons) , they busted big time this time and many times in shoulder seasons. But they (DMX) will cover tracks if asked. Bias being Bias, they (DMX) are clearly warm weather. Ask them on social media. I'am biased, but at least admit it. DMX is clearly warm weather biased, but have a difficult time explaining it away. again- 20+ years here in DMX CWA, and the bias is warm. Nothing agst that- and they do overdo a winter event from time to time, but if your a betting man/woman, bet the over in winter events here ( from what NWS says) and generally you will win out. This event is NOT the norm, just throws caution to what the hell happened? 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 No idea why, but DVN is not sending out spotter reports and the Mesonet snowfall map is still bare over eastern Iowa. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: No idea why, but DVN is not sending out spotter reports and the Mesonet snowfall map is still bare over eastern Iowa. I noticed the same thing. The only report is from Belle Plaine from 1030am and a 1/2". I can only guess from my window, but looks like 2" on the ground here. Definitely did not snow as hard as just a few miles up the road, but no complaints here nonetheless. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Were there any short term models at all showing anything of this magnitude that just got thrown to the side? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 minute ago, james1976 said: Were there any short term models at all showing anything of this magnitude that just got thrown to the side? The 3k NAM did show a good burst moving across Iowa. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 minute ago, james1976 said: Were there any short term models at all showing anything of this magnitude that just got thrown to the side? Nope, no model had anything to this magnitude. Several showed an inch or two at best, but that was it. Here was the NAM which did about as well as any model. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 minute ago, james1976 said: Were there any short term models at all showing anything of this magnitude that just got thrown to the side? 2-5" was the max I saw. And it dwindeled as HRRR and RAP went out. It obviously was underdone, but I wonder on how it models "show" accumulation with ground temps being as warm as they are? Do models take in to effect warm ground temps? (I do think most snow reports are overdone)- but still. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Snow has picked back up in earnest here. Could end up with another inch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Only light snow currently. I have at least 1” , but roads and walkways are just wet. More just north, similar to yesterday. 5 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Cloudy and chilly w wet conditions still being persistent. Temp at 44F. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Well I guess this is my earliest 1” or more of snow since 1990. Back in October of 2009 I had just under 1” on the 10th already for my earliest accumulating snow. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Look at what is looming to visit the lower 48....I have a feeling it will get mighty chilly here in the coming weeks 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post JeepinWX Posted October 19, 2020 Popular Post Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Taken at 12:30PM, on the south side of Ankeny Iowa. At least 6" on the ground. 6 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Hawkeye Posted October 19, 2020 Popular Post Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 I finished with 4.4 inches. 9 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 The sun in the morning really warmed things up, and the clouds are insulating that warmth. Currently getting flurries. 37.0*F. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: I finished with 4.4 inches. Incredible. I believe last year my largest snowfall for the entire season was 4.8" and it was the one that hit 2 days before Halloween. I'm guessing I'll have about 2" down at my house based on a few pictures I saw in the area. My kids got to make small snowmen so they were happy. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Mid October, middle of the day, 4.4" of snow with a 15 to 1 ratio. That's not something we see often. 5 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Incredible stuff and I'm jealous but I have a feeling we're all gonna have plenty of opportunities this season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 Just now, james1976 said: Incredible stuff and I'm jealous but I have a feeling we're all gonna have plenty of opportunities this season. No doubt, northern Iowa will quickly catch up and surpass the Ankeny to Cedar Rapids corridor's snow totals once winter arrives. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 GEFS mean of 14.4" here between tomorrow and Thursday's systems. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 I've been smiling ear-to-ear reading all of the posts about snow. After the year we have had, all I can say is bless you folks. You deserve it. I'm thrilled to see all the huge numbers. Unreal. They never saw it coming. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 FGF really going balls deep in the warmer ensemble members (which are in the minority) Quote .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020 Wednesday to Monday...A cool and active week continues with another system expected to bring measurable snowfall to the area Thursday. Wednesday will be a quiet day inbetween systems before another round of snowfall moves across the area. Confidence continues to increase with increasing moisture for the Thursday system though placement remains more uncertain with ensemble QPFs 25 to 75 quartile ranging from a quarter to near an inch at Fargo and Grand Forks. That high spread means that the potential total snowfall from the system is quite large. Also complicating the forecast will be a warm nose of 850mb temps lifting into the southern valley towards Fargo area with a potential to lower snowfall totals with rain or sleet mixing into the precipitation type the first half of Thursday. Will see the potential for some blowing snow as winds ramp up in the afternoon with up to 40kts in the northern portionso of the FA at 925mb though temps in the upper 20s and low 30s will limit blowing potential. This is beginning to look like the first large scale winter system to bring travel impacts for the area. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 11 hours ago, Clinton said: Looks like we will all be busy tracking storms over the next 7 days or so. Build a big glacier! Not the 3 of us east of Chicago. LOL @ how it is like two worlds. Y'all got winter while we work on autumn. Feels like a continuation of last 2 winters. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 19, 2020 Report Share Posted October 19, 2020 This is certainly some spread EPS is no better. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 What's got me absolutely stumped/stoked/scared is that this pattern doesn't stop throughout any model run I have seen. I know how that may appear coming from me because of all of my misses and mistakes, but it is relevant this year, I believe. Very clear. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 I'm definitely interested to see what happens Sunday. No model agreement of course haha. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 Craig's back! Now all we need is Money, GDR, or ToastedRavs and we're back in business. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 Congrats to all of you that got a bunch of snow today! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 13 hours ago, Niko said: Looks like TS Epsilon will be next in line. Keep in mind, we are closing in closer to tieing the record, which was set back in 2005, when the names reached all the way to Zeta. Speaking of Zeta, there is a good chance that forms down the road, as the tropics are gearing up again. I wouldn't be too excited about chasing that record from 2005. That winter sucked big time around SMI. Basically it was one solitary month between Thanksgiving and Christmas, then nothing. Similar atmospheric dynamics are at play currently and the fact that we find ourselves looking at your hurricane list is proof. 05-06 is also one of the (negative) analog winters for us and perhaps the finest example of how front-loaded Nina can end up very disappointing. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 10 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said: Craig's back! Now all we need is Money, GDR, or ToastedRavs and we're back in business. Money was on here just the other day. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 Guess I should think about crawling into my cave and hibernating soon, except I’m not fat enough yet! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 2 hours ago, jaster220 said: I wouldn't be too excited about chasing that record from 2005. That winter sucked big time around SMI. Basically it was one solitary month between Thanksgiving and Christmas, then nothing. Similar atmospheric dynamics are at play currently and the fact that we find ourselves looking at your hurricane list is proof. 05-06 is also one of the (negative) analog winters for us and perhaps the finest example of how front-loaded Nina can end up very disappointing. Personally I would much rather have a front loaded winter. When was the last time we had a good December? I am so sick of waiting until February and March for winter to arrive. There is no better time for snow than Thanksgiving through New Years. I know I'm not alone with these feelings. I'd take a mild back half of winter for a blockbuster December à la 2009 or 2000. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 Congrats to all those who experienced an impressive snow event yesterday. The meso scale banding within this wave was something else. It appears C IA was the epicenter but most of you in IA shared in the wealth. I will say, this particular event was eerily similar in track and intensity (albeit in winter mode) as this past Summer's historic and tragic derecho event. Not to mention, as I'm sure ya'll IA folks know by now, but that derecho was the most costly thunderstorm event in U.S. history (https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/10/17/iowa-derecho-damage-cost/) Now, what I find very peculiar with both events is the similar track yesterday's event took place. The strongest part of the thunderstorm complex almost had an identical track along I-80 that headed east as yesterday's snow band. What's wild is the heaviest and strongest winds happened in those same cities that had the heaviest snow fall. Crazy, huh?? Here is a radar loop of that entire event...http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=comprad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=120&interval=5&year=2020&month=8&day=10&hour=8&minute=0 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 Ummm, what month is this again??? 00z Euro and GFS bring down the Arctic Hammer this coming weekend and next week. Wow, what an impressive discharge of early season arctic air down the heartland. Heck, even our friend down south is close to seeing some Snow! We'll see, but the pattern setting up shop is one that could deliver some historic cold and snow. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 20, 2020 Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 5 hours ago, FAR_Weather said: Craig's back! Now all we need is Money, GDR, or ToastedRavs and we're back in business. I'll see what I can do with ToastedRavs.... 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 20, 2020 Very impressive snow cover extent for North America...I can only imagine that this would spike farther by this time next week... 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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