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October 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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38 minutes ago, Tom said:

Very impressive snow cover extent for North America...I can only imagine that this would spike farther by this time next week...

 

multisensor_4km_na_snow_extent_by_year_g

GFS is producing a beauty on Monday.  Hard to believe the cold air might be strong enough to push this storm so far south in Oct.  The Euro suppress the storm even further south.

sn10_acc.conus.png

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Frontogenesisssssss!

Quote

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...Concern continues to be the threat
of significant snowfall as a surface low pressure traverses the
northern Great Plains beneath an open upper level shortwave
trough/vorticity maxima. This surface low will provide a large swath
of warm air advection over the northern Great Plains with ample
moisture content, providing the threat for snow. Where questions
start to arise is if mesoscale features will play a role in stronger
snow totals. Ensemble guidance hints at the potential for 700mb
closing of the system, which could provide for frontogenetic forcing
opportunities. On top of the question of targeted areas of higher
totals, QPF spread remains annoyingly large, with GEFS plumes
indicating multiple converging solutions and a large degree of
spread between these converging solutions. Therefore, totals are
difficult to properly forecast with proper certainty. Still, it
appears impacts from this system could be larger than our previous
snow systems. Further complicating the forecast is a warm nose aloft
that could shift the precip type, especially in our far southern
counties. Despite this, general thinking is the primary precip type
will be snow, although wintry mixes cannot be ruled out further
south. At this time, primary impacts expected will be snowfall and
visibility, causing travel problems.

I'd start a thread for this one but I'm likely the only one here who will even benefit from this storm.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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NWS KC being cautious but still mentioning a chance of snow Sunday and Monday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

 A warm front will move through the area Wednesday developing showers
and storms in the afternoon along and north of the Missouri River.
No severe weather is expected, but some pockets of heavy rainfall may
occur with overall rainfall totals from a quarter to half inch
expected over northern Missouri.

Thursday will warm up significantly on the backside of the warm
front with highs in the 80s. Strong winds with gusts up to 40-45 mph
possible. This warm up will not last long as a cold front will move
through the area Thursday night, bringing a chance of showers and
storms, some of which could be strong to severe. The main threat will
be strong to damaging winds. Temperatures will drop rapidly with
highs only in the 40s to 50s going into the weekend. Winter looks to
arrive Sunday into Monday with some guidance indicating snow may be
possible, but we will have to see how things trend.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo
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NWS Hastings:

Dry and chilly conditions Fri into Sat will give way to incr
potential for wintry pcpn Sat night into Sun as a strong upper
disturbance (near -2 std dev at H5 per latest EPS) digs into N
Rockies and provides reinforcing shot of cold air. In fact, very
impressive -20C H85 temp anomalies relative to 2000-2019 M-climate
are poised to move in on Sun and brief inspection of forecast
soundings show temp profiles more akin to winter months. The
anomalous cold looks like a good bet, but details regarding
potential for accum snw remains to be worked out. Nonetheless,
decent run to run and model to model agreement (including
ensembles) argues for incr confidence for at least minor snw
accums for at least portions of the CWA this weekend. Stay tuned.
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5 minutes ago, Stormhunter87 said:

@Clinton OAX is doing the same thing. Mentioning it but gearing towards rain/snow showers. Ah my favorite "where is the freezing line?" 

I always want snow but torn on this one. Sunday is a big charity event at my local paintball field. 

FGF is doing the same thing. Reality is that ensembles are all over the place and there's no telling where it will snow. Ensembles literally range from Fargo getting slammed to KC getting slammed, and all points in between.

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7 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

FGF is doing the same thing. Reality is that ensembles are all over the place and there's no telling where it will snow. Ensembles literally range from Fargo getting slammed to KC getting slammed, and all points in between.

That's an October event for you. Really hard to forecast lol. Regardless this past week and coming week quite the change from this year, and I love it.

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9 hours ago, jaster220 said:

I wouldn't be too excited about chasing that record from 2005. That winter sucked big time around SMI. Basically it was one solitary month between Thanksgiving and Christmas, then nothing. Similar atmospheric dynamics are at play currently and the fact that we find ourselves looking at your hurricane list is proof. 05-06 is also one of the (negative) analog winters for us and perhaps the finest example of how front-loaded Nina can end up very disappointing.

You have to look at it at a different perspective. This is not something you see every year, but I would definitely get excited, if we end up breaking (not tieing, but breaking) the all time record tropical season. Now, in terms of how it affects our Winter, let it play day by day and hope for the best.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Attm, its 41F under mostly sunny skies. Breezy conditions as well w a wcf in the low 30s. A jacket is definitely needed, if venturing outside.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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At this time Grand Rapids is on track of having its coldest October since 2008. In the past there has not been a clear path that a cold October leads to a cold or snowy winter. The fall color here NW of Grand Rapids is still very good to in places great. There are now some trees that have lost all of their leaves thought.  At this time it is cloudy and 43 here at my house.

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For those weather weenies-   check this out. DSM high yday was according to ASOS- 37.4F.  at 18:40 SEE here.

image.thumb.png.1c29a737e43093861f111564d52a0795.png

But something is funny if you look at the 5 minute data either side of 18:40-- at 1835 and 1845-- see here--image.thumb.png.063a83665155b3f29dd3e7e394740867.png

 

This shows 33.8F to 37.4F to 33.8F in a span of 10 minutes. With snow on the ground , RH at 80% and Mostly Cloudy at 6:40pm in OCT?>  i don't think so. The record cold high yday was 36F!!!   I work with ASOS for DSM as a CWO- and this is being brought to the NWS attention, but they will likely dismiss it - even while saying it looks bad - because they like to roll with automation , even in error.  Just thought I would share here and that ASOS's temp's are faulty more than you think. Heck not just the temp, but about every sensor that 1980's ASLOP"S  technology has. DSM coldest max temps last chart. image.png.72f856e678f874b947ad817c8a296daa.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I just got back from early voting and the line was quite long.  Got there before they opened and waiting for about an hour till I got in.  It was a bit chilly with a north wind and temp in low 40’s.  I had my heavy jacket on for the first time this season.  Glad I got that done and off my list!

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One thing not known by many is that ASOS temp sensor needs 3 consecutive minutes of a temp - or 3 outta of 4 for a temp to be recognized. For example. at 8:40 its 55F  8:41F its 55 8:42 it's 55F, 8:43 it's 56F 844 it's 56F and 8:45F it's 55F 8:46F 55F,,,- officially it never got to 56F.  I've seen -20F in the winter for two minutes - but it went -19F for the 3rd minute and stayed at -19F. so -20F "officially" never happened. Also seen the same thing many times with 100F. just an. FYI...

ASOS is not like a true max/min thermometer we used in the old days and still used by COOP observers in the chicken coop instrument shelters (dying breed) .

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Leaves are already starting to fall off, so I'd give it until this week to enjoy the colors because by next week, there will be not much left to see here in my area.

Attm, 47F under partly cloudy skies.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Here is the latest on Epsilon......

https://wordpress.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Screen-Shot-2020-10-20-at-9.28.19-AM.png?w=632

https://wordpress.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/page-1-56.jpg?w=632

Bermuda will feel some effects of Epsilon

https://wordpress.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Risk-2.jpg?w=632

 

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Models are trending toward weaker and more strung out with the energy moving in this weekend into early next week.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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37 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Looks like an occluded front swallowing a hurricane.

2020....Making weather great again, one day at a time. I love it.

👍

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Yep, all the models are now showing a similar scenario in the extended.  The western trough splits into two pieces.  The northern piece slides east into the lakes.  The southern piece cuts off and then gets strung out as it drifts eastward.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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4 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

For those weather weenies-   check this out. DSM high yday was according to ASOS- 37.4F.  at 18:40 SEE here.

image.thumb.png.1c29a737e43093861f111564d52a0795.png

But something is funny if you look at the 5 minute data either side of 18:40-- at 1835 and 1845-- see here--image.thumb.png.063a83665155b3f29dd3e7e394740867.png

 

This shows 33.8F to 37.4F to 33.8F in a span of 10 minutes. With snow on the ground , RH at 80% and Mostly Cloudy at 6:40pm in OCT?>  i don't think so. The record cold high yday was 36F!!!   I work with ASOS for DSM as a CWO- and this is being brought to the NWS attention, but they will likely dismiss it - even while saying it looks bad - because they like to roll with automation , even in error.  Just thought I would share here and that ASOS's temp's are faulty more than you think. Heck not just the temp, but about every sensor that 1980's ASLOP"S  technology has. DSM coldest max temps last chart. image.png.72f856e678f874b947ad817c8a296daa.png

Great Stuff Grizz.  thanks for sharing.  

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anybody ever wants to know the inner workings of ASOS- how it works, the limits it has without augmentation( most sites are stand alone, or ATC augmented , which is really nothing)  etc, let me know. Been hesitant to disclose my actual job before as I don't wanna be "that guy". But working with ASOS for 20+ years pushes even the sane over the limit.  The above example did just that and I have many others. Sad thing. It's gets put in the climate record, even with admitted errors from NWS.  And when you call them on it---- Long story for another day. really is a long - LONG story if one understands the relationship between the NWS and FAA when it comes to official weather observing at historical climate sites with hundreds of years of accurate records. Now that is being shot due to the dependence on "automation" --- but  I digress.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Des Moines NWS seems pretty interested in the weekend setup:

Strong surface cyclone will track south of Iowa but
likely leave the state in a strong deformation zone, which could
lead to a widespread rain/snow event. This will need to be monitored
closely toward the end of this week to look for any kind of banding
potential, and overall to see how the dynamics play out. For the
start of the next work week, strong high pressure will settle in
across the High Plains leaving the flow northerly, allowing very
cold Polar air to dump into the region. This will likely result in
some unseasonably cold temperatures during this timeframe.
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FGF going with the watch up here and even up to Grand Forks, which I'm skeptical about.

Quote

Clay-Wilkin-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Including the cities of Moorhead, Breckenridge, Fargo, Lisbon,
Enderlin, Gwinner, Milnor, Forman, Rutland, and Wahpeton
319 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, wet snow. Additional
  snow accumulations of up to one inch. For the Winter Storm
  Watch, heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 9
  inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. In addition
  to snow, a wintry mix will be possible.

* WHERE...Portions of west central Minnesota and southeast North
  Dakota.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 7 PM CDT this
  evening. For the Winter Storm Watch, from late Wednesday night
  through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Wintry
  mix may lead to a light glaze of ice.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

The latest road conditions for North Dakota can be found at
dot.nd.gov/travel and for Minnesota at 511mn.org, or by calling
5 1 1 in either state.

 

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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7 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

For those weather weenies-   check this out. DSM high yday was according to ASOS- 37.4F.  at 18:40 SEE here.

image.thumb.png.1c29a737e43093861f111564d52a0795.png

But something is funny if you look at the 5 minute data either side of 18:40-- at 1835 and 1845-- see here--image.thumb.png.063a83665155b3f29dd3e7e394740867.png

 

This shows 33.8F to 37.4F to 33.8F in a span of 10 minutes. With snow on the ground , RH at 80% and Mostly Cloudy at 6:40pm in OCT?>  i don't think so. The record cold high yday was 36F!!!   I work with ASOS for DSM as a CWO- and this is being brought to the NWS attention, but they will likely dismiss it - even while saying it looks bad - because they like to roll with automation , even in error.  Just thought I would share here and that ASOS's temp's are faulty more than you think. Heck not just the temp, but about every sensor that 1980's ASLOP"S  technology has. DSM coldest max temps last chart. image.png.72f856e678f874b947ad817c8a296daa.png

I don’t trust automated stations, especially for precipitation!

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Clouds are increasing as more Autumn rains develop tanite.

Tbh, there is nothing better than getting rain in the Fall w chilly temps and leaves falling and blowing away and Halloween just around the corner. It will get a tad warmer by tomorrow and towards the end of the week, but that does not last too long. Highs on the weekend will not rise above the 40s and lows in the 30s. Great outdoor weather!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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4 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

anybody ever wants to know the inner workings of ASOS- how it works, the limits it has without augmentation( most sites are stand alone, or ATC augmented , which is really nothing)  etc, let me know. Been hesitant to disclose my actual job before as I don't wanna be "that guy". But working with ASOS for 20+ years pushes even the sane over the limit.  The above example did just that and I have many others. Sad thing. It's gets put in the climate record, even with admitted errors from NWS.  And when you call them on it---- Long story for another day. really is a long - LONG story if one understands the relationship between the NWS and FAA when it comes to official weather observing at historical climate sites with hundreds of years of accurate records. Now that is being shot due to the dependence on "automation" --- but  I digress.

Not a mystery at all. They're lying manipulators. Always have been. Thank you for sharing this. 

Sounds like you got the same response as I did when asking why the mesonet data here changed after 14 years and why folks feel they have liberty to go back and alter real, physical human observations and descriptions.

I'd love to know what you're talking about. Been hoping for a solution to it before all of the pre-2008 weather history is destroyed or altered. It's not a myth or a hoax. Thank you.

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3 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

Not a fan of how the weekend system is looking. GFS is still somewhat robust of course, but even thats trending the way of the weaker solutions.

Long way to go still. Let's see what happens come Thursday or so. Finally getting some decent rain today maybe the tide is turning.

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9 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Long way to go still. Let's see what happens come Thursday or so. Finally getting some decent rain today maybe the tide is turning.

That's right. Last week at this time, models showed a couple of runs having everyone west of the Mississippi bone dry for 14 days straight. A LOT has changed.

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