October 2020 Observations and Discussion

[OKwx2k4]

These images explain, hopefully, why I think this pattern doesn't relent quickly. 

The Pacific has the "metronome" set already. Its insanely early, but if 240 is as good as what is expected after hour 48, it's not really going to stop. It isn't really hype at all, as some of you are experiencing, or rather, enjoying today.

its gonna be a "classic" folks! 

[Minny_Weather]

Welp, Frankie warned ND about Thursday. Guess I'll enjoy the 1" I get.

[OKwx2k4]

Next week is not snow for me. Looks like an ice event in this GFS run. Yowza.

[james1976]

FWIW, GFS pretty consistent with a 1-3 or 2-4 event around here Sunday.

[jaster220]

JUST finished several minutes of T-storm action. Vivid lightning strikes and loud thunder. Heaviest rain rates in weeks here. CPC has a swath of Hvy RN thru the OHV on the 25-26th. Perhaps the tide is finally turning.

[jaster220]

23 hours ago, clintbeed1993 said:

Personally I would much rather have a front loaded winter. When was the last time we had a good December? I am so sick of waiting until February and March for winter to arrive. There is no better time for snow than Thanksgiving through New Years.  I know I'm not alone with these feelings. I'd take a mild back half of winter for a blockbuster December à la 2009 or 2000.

For here, that'd be Dec 2017 @ 24.6", and Dec 2016 @ 27.6"

Ofc, I'd take one of your blockbuster months any time I can get one too. Just tends to be so busy during that month I can't really enjoy it, then when things quiet down post-holidays and I've got time to storm track and really enjoy the hobby, it's very disappointing if it goes dud. I'm happy with just a few inches at Christmas (what I grew up with tbh) then from New Years to mid-March would be my preferred window for serious snow. Which makes 2013-14 just about perfection in that regard.

[Tom]

7 hours ago, jaster220 said:

JUST finished several minutes of T-storm action. Vivid lightning strikes and loud thunder. Heaviest rain rates in weeks here. CPC has a swath of Hvy RN thru the OHV on the 25-26th. Perhaps the tide is finally turning.

I, to, had some surprise rumbles of thunder last evening when I was cooking in the kitchen.  Wasn't expecting any storms but glad it did rain a bit.  The wave train will continue for pretty much all of us on here.  Quite the active pattern I'd say and our region is still in the AN precip outlooks over the next 10 days.

[Tom]

The next storm system on deck in this fierce wave train is setting its sights on the Dakota's and into parts of MN.  Somewhat of a S shift in overnight runs but still flashing an impressive Oct snowfall.

 

00z EPS...

 

00z Euro...

 

 

 

[Tom]

Over the past several days, I've been studying and analyzing the hemispheric pattern and the influences of various factors that are driving the developing wx pattern.  Where shall I begin???  Let's start by tracking the status of the Strat and the re-emergence of the Scandinavian Block.  As the LRC evolves, the evolution of the Polar Vortex is becoming clear that its setting its sight on North America over the next 10 days.  With blocking currently established over the Pole (-AO per 50mb map below), it will reverse as the PV tracks across the Pole into N.A. later next week.

 

By Day 10, all the models are in agreement that the Vortex will become established near Hudson Bay...at both 10mb/30mb you can see the source region of the cold will be entrenched across North America and NOT in Siberia which usually is the case this time of year.  This, is a big clue going forward....along with this development, I'm seeing the re-emergence of the impressive Scandinavian Block which showed up in very late Sept and into early Oct (Possible LRC Harmonic rhythm).  Is the record low sea ice across the eastern Arctic contributing???  I believe so.

 

 

Check out the current status of the Sea Ice extent over the Arctic...notice how its "hugging" North America/Greenland and building in this part of the Arctic...

http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/sea/SICE_map_extent_LA_EN_20201018.png

 

00z GEFS 500mb illustrates the impressive Scandinavian Block....warm Arctic = Cold mid latitudes....

 

 

 

 

 

 

So, where do we go from here???  As we flip the calendar into November, I see a short period of a relaxation into the opening days of November as the BSR would suggests a Ridge to build into parts of our Sub (moreso across the western Sub) during the 1st week of November.  Back on Oct 15th, across the Bearing Sea, a transient ridge tracked through...this would correlate between Nov 2nd - 6th (ish)....

 

 

Following this period, I foresee an impressive southern stream storm to effect the Sub around Nov 8th-12th that has Winter-like implications.  It doesn't stop there, however, as there may be "Back-to-Back" storms in the cards.  From what I'm seeing, this evolving pattern is quite intriguing and looks to remain active.  See the 00z GEFS MSLP animation below that shows the 2 storm systems tracking in an ideal location near the Aleutians over the next 7 days...that HP block over the top suggests to me there will be arctic air to "seed" any system that tracks across the Sub in early November.

 

 

Finally, I will end with this 500mb map below off of the Euro Weeklies from this past Monday that not only show the impressive blocking near Scandinavia but the re-emergence of the Greenland Block heading into November.  The blocking over Greenland and eastern Canada grows stronger as we move deeper into November which are positive signs going forward.  Do you guys "see"something else???  Well, if you remember how October opened across North America, it appears to me this "snap shot" of the 5-day mean between Nov 5th-10th looks quite similar to what the pattern looked like around the Oct 7th-10th period that showcased a SW Ridge/Greenland & Scandinavian Block...is this an LRC Harmonic Rhythm???  Time will tell.

 

 

[Grizzcoat]

late weekend system. Basically the GFS vs. the world now. It's fun to look at even it's not likely to happen- after all- it's mid OCT.

[Grizzcoat]

[Minny_Weather]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

The next storm system on deck in this fierce wave train is setting its sights on the Dakota's and into parts of MN.  Somewhat of a S shift in overnight runs but still flashing an impressive Oct snowfall.

 

00z EPS...

 

00z Euro...

 

 

 

That South shift is absolutely terrible.

[Minny_Weather]

Well. This is frustrating. NAMNEST is now the ONLY model that has me getting even close to 6"!!!!!! Every other model shows the same area that got slammed yesterday getting slammed again tomorrow.

Mildly ridiculous.

[Minny_Weather]

2 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Well. This is frustrating. NAMNEST is now the ONLY model that has me getting even close to 6"!!!!!! Every other model shows the same area that got slammed yesterday getting slammed again tomorrow.

Mildly ridiculous.

Every GEFS member now shows this except one. Christ.

[westMJim]

I recorded 0.43" of rain over night here. At this time it is cloudy and 49

[james1976]

Last couple Des Moines AFD's have been very lengthy and detailed. This morning's talks about potential severe storms and 70s on Thursday to possible snow on Sunday and potential record cold Monday night (if there is snow cover). Wild pattern.

[St Paul Storm]

The MPX forecaster this morning seems a bit tired of the pattern already, with another system tomorrow (mainly rain for the metro and then another possible decent snow on Sunday). 

The upper level cut off low
that is largely responsible for sending repeated waves of mid-level
energy into our area does look primed to reposition farther north
once we get into the middle of next week, which hopefully signals an
end to this active pattern and returns us to more fall-like
conditions rather than winter. I`m sure I`m not the only one that
would like to see the Climate Prediction Center`s 3-4 week outlook
come true given how the 2nd half of October is looking!

[Minny_Weather]

Ha.

Quote

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...We finally see a calm period show up as
ensemble guidance suggests a shift to northwesterly flow, with an
amplifying ridge to our west. This will provide for a calmer period
and a warming air mass (as this forecaster breathes a sigh of
relief).

 

[Minny_Weather]

Very very icy outside currently. Clear skies to the East will hopefully help melt the crap off the road while still leaving most of what's on the grass intact. 24.1*F.

[Niko]

Cloudy and dismal outside w temps at 57F. Roller coaster ride as far as temps go this week. Looking forward to Friday as temps climb into the 70s, w a nice wind blowing around. Excellent opportunity for last min yardwork. Temps drop like a rock once the strong CF rolls on through late Fri.

[Niko]

Next week looks cold and dreary w daytime highs mainly in the 40s and lows in the 30s. Some sunshine in between days, but overall, will be running BN in SEMI.

[Niko]

1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said:

Very very icy outside currently. Clear skies to the East will hopefully help melt the crap off the road while still leaving most of what's on the grass intact. 24.1*F.

Did ya get any appreciable snow outta this system....Just saw it at the other thread. I'd say that is quite impressive. Hopefully, it can warm up a bit in the coming days and melt some of that ice that has build up, as you mention in your above post.

[Clinton]

If KC get accumulating snow next week (and it's a big if) it will be the first time we have recorded measurable snow in 3 consecutive Oct.

[CentralNebWeather]

And in this area of Central Nebraska, not a drop of moisture with all the wild weather going on.  Almost impossible to miss with all of the chances, but that is what seems to happen during a drought.  Still sitting at 0.80" of rainfall since late July.  I think we have had one rain in now 82 days.  In most years I would think we would have chances this weekend, but NWS Hastings not too optimistic as the system possibly gets split.  The only positive, the harvest is just about done in this area.

[Clinton]

5 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

And in this area of Central Nebraska, not a drop of moisture with all the wild weather going on.  Almost impossible to miss with all of the chances, but that is what seems to happen during a drought.  Still sitting at 0.80" of rainfall since late July.  I think we have had one rain in now 82 days.  In most years I would think we would have chances this weekend, but NWS Hastings not too optimistic as the system possibly gets split.  The only positive, the harvest is just about done in this area.

We need a big storm to slam the west coast and move out of the 4 corners area.

[Niko]

My local forecaster just gave a brief outlook for December (for my area) and it does not look very promising. Could this be the 3rd Dull December in a row??!! Wow! As of now, temps look AN! Lets just leave it at that.

Jaster:

Lets just wait n see what happens. FWIW, I just checked my extended 3 month outlook and December does look mild n dry. The 2 famous words for that month continues.

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

Lol. The NAMs don't even give me 2".

[Niko]

Some spots today will be in the 60s w improving weather conditions. My area will remain in the 50s, maybe touching 60F w partcial clearing. Rainshowers are in my forecast all week and definitely looking forward to the thunderstorms on Friday, hopefully, they are severe.

[CentralNebWeather]

38 minutes ago, Clinton said:

We need a big storm to slam the west coast and move out of the 4 corners area.

We just never do very well in this region with the NW flow pattern.  Unless a system moves down the front range of the Rockies and has a chance to develop, we usually get a lot of wind and not much moisture.  Been a long time since we've had a slow moving Colorado Low in the Central Plains.

[Hawkeye]

Models continue to back off on the warmth across Iowa Thursday.  It had looked like the warm front would surge north through the state and brings a lot of 70s, but now the front may get hung up over southeast Iowa and keep many areas farther north much cooler.

Rainwise, it looks pretty good for my area.  The latest 3k NAM has a swath of 2-4" of rain from sw to east-central Iowa.

[Minny_Weather]

RDPS is equally as crap for me as the NAMs are.

This is dumb.

[gimmesnow]

Last year my last day on the stand up jet ski was Halloween. This year, all our warm spells have been accompanied by rain and thunder/lightning. It looks like October 17th may have been the last day for me to ride, the extended forecast does not look promising.

Usually I make it longer than this, kind of sad. Maybe I'll get an early November day but I need it to be in the mid 50s to not super-freeze and with this forecast the water temp is going to drop like a rock. It's already in the 40s in shallow water, but it was in the upper 50s/lower 60s in the deep parts.

On the other hand, last year my ski hill had a record early opening. A late jet ski season led to a very early snowboarding season. Hopefully we get another one with some good cold soon. I'm already being teased with lows below 28, which is the magic number for making snow, but they need a good 24 to 36 hour stretch to make it happen.

[Tom]

As mentioned earlier, the thought was the snow cover extent across North America would be on the increase....and this is what has happened....reaching decadal highs!

 

[GDR]

38 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Models continue to back off on the warmth across Iowa Thursday.  It had looked like the warm front would surge north through the state and brings a lot of 70s, but now the front may get hung up over southeast Iowa and keep many areas farther north much cooler.

Rainwise, it looks pretty good for my area.  The latest 3k NAM has a swath of 2-4" of rain from sw to east-central Iowa.

Good thing it’s only oct!

[james1976]

12z GFS only has me getting to about 60 tomorrow. Forecast has been for low 70s

If this system keeps trending southward its gonna be another TC special and will also keep me north of the warm front.

[jaster220]

I jumped the gun with egg on my face while eating crow. This was indeed historic October stuff for MSP!

 

[Stormgeek]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

Models continue to back off on the warmth across Iowa Thursday.  It had looked like the warm front would surge north through the state and brings a lot of 70s, but now the front may get hung up over southeast Iowa and keep many areas farther north much cooler.

Rainwise, it looks pretty good for my area.  The latest 3k NAM has a swath of 2-4" of rain from sw to east-central Iowa.

Very curious to just how far south this gets pulled. Sitting in the northern suburbs I am pretty close right now on a couple models! Yesterday was pretty crazy by itself, got about 6 inches up here. Icy mess out there this morning.

[Grizzcoat]

Weekend system still a powerhouse for many-- problem is, it keeps getting pushed back on the GFS, ever so slightly which is never a good thing.

[Grizzcoat]

This blows daily - and in some cases OCT all time  min records out of the park. Need snow cover. Along with all the other stuff.

[james1976]

@Grizz....awesome stuff! I was about to post this. GFS has been pretty consistent with this set up.