Minny_Weather Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 RAP is currently the Northernmost model for me. Has me on the 6" line. Guess the one saving grace with this system is that it doesn't have a sharp cutoff. I'd still like more than what I saw yesterday as that's what was originally advertised. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 16 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: This blows daily - and in some cases OCT all time min records out of the park. Need snow cover. Along with all the other stuff. lol, if that validated I would be snowboarding end of October. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 CMC only has me getting to about 60 tomorrow now too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 Lol GFS has it briefly shooting to 73 tomorrow (though much lower than the mid 80s its been showing) and NAM has it only getting to 47. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 At least I have GEFS ensemble member #7 on my side! 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 I stand the chance for a record high temp on Friday. Temps could be in the mid to upper 70s. Sounds nice! Lows that evening are expected to tumble into the 30s, as a sharp CF arrives. Big contrast in temp. The weekend will be a shock to the system. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 Keeping an eye on possible Zeta anywhere in the Atlantic. That will tie the record, if it happens. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 Euro still not on board at all, while GFS has trended stronger. One of them has got to give by tomorrow. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 25 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: Euro still not on board at all, while GFS has trended stronger. One of them has got to give by tomorrow. I think I trust the GFS more. Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn't the GFS model more accurate last Winter season than the Euro and even a few more years back ....Tbh, couple years back, Euro was queen in my books, but as of lately, GFS has scored some big home-runs, which kinda made me go more w the GFS.. Anyways, good luck w this storm. Hope you score bigly w snow that is. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 3 hours ago, Grizzcoat said: Weekend system still a powerhouse for many-- problem is, it keeps getting pushed back on the GFS, ever so slightly which is never a good thing. Is that stuff in NC wi for tomorrow?!?!?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 41 minutes ago, Niko said: I think I trust the GFS more. Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn't the GFS model more accurate last Winter season than the Euro and even a few more years back ....Tbh, couple years back, Euro was queen in my books, but as of lately, GFS has scored some big home-runs, which kinda made me go more w the GFS.. Anyways, good luck w this storm. Hope you score bigly w snow that is. I hope your right. GFS in the tropics lately (which I have followed since about Laura) as taken the Euro to the woodshed. Problem is this is winter events and even with so called downfall of the Euro over past years- it's still a wash and I still favor the King as the GFS keeps delaying the main event with over running which is very difficult this time of the year. But than again, snow pack further S may mitigate that to an extant. I still think the GFS is WAY off and the bulk of the precip will fall in MN this weekend. Just my .02. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 Difficult to get any snowmelt when it's 35F, cloudy, and dew point of 24F. Wet slop doesn't melt fast to begin with. I bet we only lost 1" today, and that was mostly due to compaction. 36F with rain/snow/thunder in the grid for tomorrow. I had no intentions of shoveling the driveway after yesterday's storm, but I'm going to have to. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 13 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said: Difficult to get any snowmelt when it's 35F, cloudy, and dew point of 24F. Wet slop doesn't melt fast to begin with. I bet we only lost 1" today, and that was mostly due to compaction. 36F with rain/snow/thunder in the grid for tomorrow. I had no intentions of shoveling the driveway, but I'm going to have to. It's all sun angle and duration - for the most part- even with overcast. this date of Oct 21st is comparable to Mid Feb with sun angle and duration. Mid FEB is coming out of winter with thermos ( land ) needing a boost (compared to now) , surprised you have not lost more than inch. I'd expect you lose more tonight, with WAA., than you'd think with ground temps still "rather" warm. BUT- I have heard the lakes Up North (firsthand) are icing over at record levels. Several reports of Nina Moose in the BWCA being locked up with rescue in process. Watch ice "in" this year. It may be a record earliest. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 33 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: It's all sun angle and duration - for the most part- even with overcast. this date of Oct 21st is comparable to Mid Feb with sun angle and duration. Mid FEB is coming out of winter with thermos ( land ) needing a boost (compared to now) , surprised you have not lost more than inch. I'd expect you lose more tonight, with WAA., than you'd think with ground temps still "rather" warm. BUT- I have heard the lakes Up North (firsthand) are icing over at record levels. Several reports of Nina Moose in the BWCA being locked up with rescue in process. Watch ice "in" this year. It may be a record earliest. I bet you’re right. We’re going to lose quite a bit more before the day is over. I just got home and I’m down to around 4”....from 6.75”. I’d be more than excited with an early ‘ice in’, assuming the ice forms nicely. I’m setting up the hockey rink on the lake again this year. Bad ice is no bueno. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 Sadly I got rained out this afternoon already, while mowing the lawn, though it didn’t amount to much. Hopefully can get some more outside and yard work done tomorrow afternoon. While sitting indoors catching up on the weather I heard plenty of distant thunder even with the storms over 1 county south of me. I love that sound. I’m hoping for some heavy rain tonight. Most of the CAMS look promising for me, but the synoptic models are a bit further north. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 1 hour ago, St Paul Storm said: Difficult to get any snowmelt when it's 35F, cloudy, and dew point of 24F. Wet slop doesn't melt fast to begin with. I bet we only lost 1" today, and that was mostly due to compaction. 36F with rain/snow/thunder in the grid for tomorrow. I had no intentions of shoveling the driveway after yesterday's storm, but I'm going to have to. There's been a bit here because we had about 30 minutes of sun right around solar noon. Back to clouds and 32.4*F. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 GFS is holding steady for this weekend 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 Cold air locks in place once the CF clears my area late Friday. Consistent 40s for daytime highs and lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s starting this weekend and most of next week. BN temps take hold, which will lead to November arriving on a cold note. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 Have the Weber going for a delicious dinner. Plan on cooking Fish, "Shark" (White N boneless), side of beets, red sweet wine and to top it all off, my wife made a delicious homemade "Apple Pie." Greek coffee follows it. Taking advantage of the Weber b4 Winter hits. Bon appétit! 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 15 minutes ago, james1976 said: GFS is holding steady for this weekend Looks good and has support from the ICON. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 45 minutes ago, Sparky said: Most of the CAMS look promising for me, but the synoptic models are a bit further north. The HRRR and 3k NAM have shifted the heaviest rain south of me. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 FGF has me in an advisory. Still 3-7" in the grid which is interesting. Very slight North tick on both NAMs.... Puts the jack zone right on the Dakota state line versus South of it. Also gives me 3-4". 3 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 I want the gfs to win this fight but it has let me down so many times. My dad always likes the gfs better compared to other models. Although he has been laughing at these runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 21, 2020 Report Share Posted October 21, 2020 Not even close to any normal highs or lows. Even most of these highs are colder than normal lows. Tonight A 50 percent chance of snow, mainly after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Calm wind becoming northeast around 6 mph after midnight. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Thursday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. Breezy, with a north northeast wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Thursday Night A 40 percent chance of snow, mainly before 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 19. North wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Friday Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 30. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 10. West wind 5 to 8 mph. Saturday A 40 percent chance of snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 26. Light and variable wind becoming east northeast 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Saturday Night A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. North wind around 7 mph. Sunday A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28. North northwest wind 8 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 9. West northwest wind around 9 mph. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 24. West northwest wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 7. Southwest wind around 9 mph. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 27. Southwest wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16. Southwest wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 36. West southwest wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 SREF mean for here has jumped to 5.75". 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 3 hours ago, FAR_Weather said: Not even close to any normal highs or lows. Even most of these highs are colder than normal lows. Tonight A 50 percent chance of snow, mainly after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Calm wind becoming northeast around 6 mph after midnight. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Thursday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. Breezy, with a north northeast wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Thursday Night A 40 percent chance of snow, mainly before 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 19. North wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Friday Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 30. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 10. West wind 5 to 8 mph. Saturday A 40 percent chance of snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 26. Light and variable wind becoming east northeast 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Saturday Night A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. North wind around 7 mph. Sunday A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28. North northwest wind 8 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 9. West northwest wind around 9 mph. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 24. West northwest wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 7. Southwest wind around 9 mph. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 27. Southwest wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16. Southwest wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 36. West southwest wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 Cloudy attm, w temps at 44F and showers will be developing late tanite. Will take advantage of the 2 mild days coming up because, after that, the bottom falls off and it looks like it has staying power for sometime. Next week is downright chilly. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 It’s thundering again, and it’s disgusting that it’s missing JUST north and south of me AGAIN. Most times it doesn’t end up as well if it doesn’t start out well or the first cells keep missing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 Radar looks to be setting up north. 28.6°F. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 Another Tropical Milestone........Epsilon is a major CAT3 hurricane out in the Atlantic, not bothering anyone, except the fish and maybe brushing Bermuda. Expected to weaken considerably as it heads for Northern Europe. Note: This is the 10th Hurricane this season and the 5th time this has happened (1969, 1995, 2005, 2017 and 2020). The latest: 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 And here we go......GFS weaker now for Sunday 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 Looks like OKwx2k4 will be shocked, as he might see some possible snow moving in his area, along w very chilly conditions........ 1 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 16 minutes ago, Niko said: Looks like OKwx2k4 will be shocked, as he might see some possible snow moving in his area, along w very chilly conditions........ They're starting to think its highly possible now. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 So far tonight all the rain has gone south and north. I may be fortunate just to get a half inch later. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 Euro appears to be baby stepping towards GFS... (late weekend system) 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 Radar lines up with last night's model solution of highest totals down by the state line. 2" or less here I come! Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 22, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 4 hours ago, Niko said: Another Tropical Milestone........Epsilon is a major CAT3 hurricane out in the Atlantic, not bothering anyone, except the fish and maybe brushing Bermuda. Expected to weaken considerably as it heads for Northern Europe. Note: This is the 10th Hurricane this season and the 5th time this has happened (1969, 1995, 2005, 2017 and 2020). The latest: The stadium appearance of the eye wall never gets old...enjoy! Here is a short clip of the hurricane hunters entering the eye wall. Bless these guys as they must have nerves of steel doing what they do best. https://twitter.com/i/status/1319081639922860034 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 22, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 Got awaken by several loud rumbles of thunder and heavy rain this morning. My gutters are over flowing with water and I'm seeing reports of over 2" of rain so far in the southern burbs. Speaking of thunder, our local photographer captured this shot of a triple bolt that hit Trump Tower around 2:15am...this guy never seems to disappoint us with amazing photos. 5 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 Radar South of here is very.... Inconclusive. I still have no idea what will happen here lol. I'm hoping the returns near Aberdeen will get up here but I doubt it. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 Radar starting fill in up here. Let's hope I jinxed myself into higher totals. 28.6°F. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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