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October 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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RAP is currently the Northernmost model for me. Has me on the 6" line.

Guess the one saving grace with this system is that it doesn't have a sharp cutoff. I'd still like more than what I saw yesterday as that's what was originally advertised.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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I stand the chance for a record high temp on Friday. Temps could be in the mid to upper 70s. Sounds nice! 😀

Lows that evening are expected to tumble into the 30s, as a sharp CF arrives. Big contrast in temp. The weekend will be a shock to the system.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Keeping an eye on possible Zeta anywhere in the Atlantic. That will tie the record, if it happens.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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25 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Euro still not on board at all, while GFS has trended stronger. One of them has got to give by tomorrow. 

I think I trust the GFS more. Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn't the GFS model more accurate last Winter season than the Euro and even a few more years back ....Tbh, couple years back, Euro was queen in my books, but as of lately, GFS has scored some big home-runs, which kinda made me go more w the GFS..

Anyways, good luck w this storm. Hope you score bigly w snow that is.🌨️

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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41 minutes ago, Niko said:

I think I trust the GFS more. Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn't the GFS model more accurate last Winter season than the Euro and even a few more years back ....Tbh, couple years back, Euro was queen in my books, but as of lately, GFS has scored some big home-runs, which kinda made me go more w the GFS..

Anyways, good luck w this storm. Hope you score bigly w snow that is.🌨️

I hope your right. GFS in the tropics lately (which I have followed since about Laura) as taken the Euro to the woodshed. Problem is this is winter events and even with so called downfall of the Euro over past years- it's still a wash and I still favor the King as the GFS keeps delaying the main event with over running which is very difficult this time of the year. But than again, snow pack further S may mitigate that to an extant. I still think the GFS is WAY off and the bulk of the precip will fall in MN this weekend. Just my .02.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Difficult to get any snowmelt when it's 35F, cloudy, and dew point of 24F. Wet slop doesn't melt fast to begin with. I bet we only lost 1" today, and that was mostly due to compaction.  

36F with rain/snow/thunder in the grid for tomorrow. I had no intentions of shoveling the driveway after yesterday's storm, but I'm going to have to. 

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13 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said:

Difficult to get any snowmelt when it's 35F, cloudy, and dew point of 24F. Wet slop doesn't melt fast to begin with. I bet we only lost 1" today, and that was mostly due to compaction.  

36F with rain/snow/thunder in the grid for tomorrow. I had no intentions of shoveling the driveway, but I'm going to have to. 

It's all sun angle and duration - for the most part- even with overcast.  this date of Oct 21st is comparable to Mid Feb with sun angle and duration.  Mid FEB is coming out of winter with thermos ( land )  needing a boost (compared to now) , surprised you have not lost more than inch. I'd expect you lose more tonight, with WAA., than you'd think with ground temps still "rather" warm. BUT- I have heard the lakes Up North (firsthand) are icing over at record levels. Several reports of Nina Moose in the BWCA being locked up with rescue in process. Watch ice "in" this year. It may be a record earliest.

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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33 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

It's all sun angle and duration - for the most part- even with overcast.  this date of Oct 21st is comparable to Mid Feb with sun angle and duration.  Mid FEB is coming out of winter with thermos ( land )  needing a boost (compared to now) , surprised you have not lost more than inch. I'd expect you lose more tonight, with WAA., than you'd think with ground temps still "rather" warm. BUT- I have heard the lakes Up North (firsthand) are icing over at record levels. Several reports of Nina Moose in the BWCA being locked up with rescue in process. Watch ice "in" this year. It may be a record earliest.

 

I bet you’re right. We’re going to lose quite a bit more before the day is over. I just got home and I’m down to around 4”....from 6.75”. 
 

I’d be more than excited with an early ‘ice in’, assuming the ice forms nicely. I’m setting up the hockey rink on the lake again this year. Bad ice is no bueno. 

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Sadly I got rained out this afternoon already, while mowing the lawn, though it didn’t amount to much. Hopefully can get some more outside and yard work done tomorrow afternoon. While sitting indoors catching up on the weather I heard plenty of distant thunder even with the storms over 1 county south of me. I love that sound. I’m hoping for some heavy rain tonight. Most of the CAMS look promising for me, but the synoptic models are a bit further north. 

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1 hour ago, St Paul Storm said:

Difficult to get any snowmelt when it's 35F, cloudy, and dew point of 24F. Wet slop doesn't melt fast to begin with. I bet we only lost 1" today, and that was mostly due to compaction.  

36F with rain/snow/thunder in the grid for tomorrow. I had no intentions of shoveling the driveway after yesterday's storm, but I'm going to have to. 

There's been a bit here because we had about 30 minutes of sun right around solar noon. Back to clouds and 32.4*F.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Cold air locks in place once the CF clears my area late Friday. Consistent 40s for daytime highs and lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s starting this weekend and most of next week. BN temps take hold, which will lead to November arriving on a cold note.                               

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Have the Weber going for a delicious dinner. Plan on cooking Fish, "Shark" (White N boneless), side of beets, red sweet wine and to top it all off, my wife made a delicious homemade "Apple Pie." Greek coffee follows it. Taking advantage of the Weber b4 Winter hits.

Bon appétit! 😀

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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45 minutes ago, Sparky said:

Most of the CAMS look promising for me, but the synoptic models are a bit further north. 

The HRRR and 3k NAM have shifted the heaviest rain south of me.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Not even close to any normal highs or lows. Even most of these highs are colder than normal lows.

Tonight
A 50 percent chance of snow, mainly after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Calm wind becoming northeast around 6 mph after midnight. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Thursday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. Breezy, with a north northeast wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Thursday Night
A 40 percent chance of snow, mainly before 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 19. North wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Friday
Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 30. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 10. West wind 5 to 8 mph.
Saturday
A 40 percent chance of snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 26. Light and variable wind becoming east northeast 5 to 9 mph in the morning.
Saturday Night
A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. North wind around 7 mph.
Sunday
A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28. North northwest wind 8 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 9. West northwest wind around 9 mph.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 24. West northwest wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 7. Southwest wind around 9 mph.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 27. Southwest wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16. Southwest wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 36. West southwest wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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3 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Not even close to any normal highs or lows. Even most of these highs are colder than normal lows.

Tonight
A 50 percent chance of snow, mainly after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Calm wind becoming northeast around 6 mph after midnight. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Thursday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. Breezy, with a north northeast wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Thursday Night
A 40 percent chance of snow, mainly before 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 19. North wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Friday
Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 30. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 10. West wind 5 to 8 mph.
Saturday
A 40 percent chance of snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 26. Light and variable wind becoming east northeast 5 to 9 mph in the morning.
Saturday Night
A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. North wind around 7 mph.
Sunday
A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28. North northwest wind 8 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 9. West northwest wind around 9 mph.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 24. West northwest wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 7. Southwest wind around 9 mph.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 27. Southwest wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16. Southwest wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 36. West southwest wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

🥶 

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Cloudy attm, w temps at 44F and showers will be developing late tanite. Will take advantage of the 2 mild days coming up because, after that, the bottom falls off and it looks like it has staying power for sometime. Next week is downright chilly.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Another Tropical Milestone........Epsilon is a major CAT3 hurricane out in the Atlantic, not bothering anyone, except the fish and maybe brushing Bermuda.  Expected to weaken considerably as it heads for Northern Europe.

Note: This is the 10th  Hurricane this season and the 5th time this has happened (1969, 1995, 2005, 2017 and 2020).

 

The latest:

https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/0yJ0zKdURulH.C9XJd5ajA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTc4Ny4zNjg0MjEwNTI2MzE2/https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/YuR7byburOP74OGTzmQ95g--~B/aD05MzU7dz0xMTQwO2FwcGlkPXl0YWNoeW9u/https://media.zenfs.com/en/miami_herald_mcclatchy_975/e71d7555bc101245997e3856e3f4bd59

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Looks like OKwx2k4 will be shocked, as he might see some possible snow moving in his area, along w very chilly conditions........

https://wordpress.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/2E-1-1.png?w=632

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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So far tonight all the rain has gone south and north.  I may be fortunate just to get a half inch later.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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4 hours ago, Niko said:

Another Tropical Milestone........Epsilon is a major CAT3 hurricane out in the Atlantic, not bothering anyone, except the fish and maybe brushing Bermuda.  Expected to weaken considerably as it heads for Northern Europe.

Note: This is the 10th  Hurricane this season and the 5th time this has happened (1969, 1995, 2005, 2017 and 2020).

 

The latest:

https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/0yJ0zKdURulH.C9XJd5ajA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTc4Ny4zNjg0MjEwNTI2MzE2/https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/YuR7byburOP74OGTzmQ95g--~B/aD05MzU7dz0xMTQwO2FwcGlkPXl0YWNoeW9u/https://media.zenfs.com/en/miami_herald_mcclatchy_975/e71d7555bc101245997e3856e3f4bd59

 

The stadium appearance of the eye wall never gets old...enjoy!  Here is a short clip of the hurricane hunters entering the eye wall.  Bless these guys as they must have nerves of steel doing what they do best.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1319081639922860034

 

 

1.jpg

2.jpg

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Got awaken by several loud rumbles of thunder and heavy rain this morning.  My gutters are over flowing with water and I'm seeing reports of over 2" of rain so far in the southern burbs.  

Speaking of thunder, our local photographer captured this shot of a triple bolt that hit Trump Tower around 2:15am...this guy never seems to disappoint us with amazing photos.

1.jpg

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