Tom Posted October 22, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 Some LR thoughts on this rainy and thundery morning... 1 minute ago, FAR_Weather said: Radar starting fill in up here. Let's hope I jinxed myself into higher totals. 28.6°F. Enjoy the powder today buddy....you've gotten more action this autumn in the snow dept than all of last winter in Ohio! LOL...should be a banner cold season for you bud. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, Tom said: Some LR thoughts on this rainy and thundery morning... Enjoy the powder today buddy....you've gotten more action this autumn in the snow dept than all of last winter in Ohio! LOL...should be a banner cold season for you bud. Yes. So cold that I'm actually worried about suppression. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 22, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 Some LR thoughts on this thundery and rainy morning...the latest JMA weeklies are in and they show a continuation of the BN temp pattern through the early part of November before a relaxation of the cold appears to be in the cards later in the 1st week of Nov. Week 2 temp/precip...drier pattern overall... Week 3-4...temp/precip...the model seems to be building up cold in western Canada and bleeding into the Rockies/Upper MW whil the west & east coasts of the U.S. are warmer than normal and seasonal weather throughout the majority of our Sub. When looking at the Northern Hemisphere 500mb maps for Week 2-4, what stands out to me is the impressive and long standing Scandinavian Ridge. Dr. Judah Cohen has mentioned in his blog that if this block continues into November, it will have big implications on the Polar Vortex and could/should weaken it considerably. As always, it's a wait and see what happens with this wild card atmospheric feature. Lastly, our current state of the SST pattern continue to show the strengthening La Nina and a growing cold pool NW of Hawaii while warmer waters are beginning to "hug" western NAMER. Doesn't that look like eye candy??? Interestingly, the recent run off the CFSv2 is showing this pattern to continue into November... 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 22, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 It's absolutely pouring out there right now...been getting waves and waves of heavy rainfall. I'm hearing of a lot of ponding on the roadways and highways causing traffic jams during the morning commute. These rains should put a big dent into our deficit. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 3 hours ago, Grizzcoat said: Euro appears to be baby stepping towards GFS... (late weekend system) and DMX notices it also--- The entire state will be back into the cold weather Friday through much of next week. High temperatures Friday through Sunday will be in the 30s and 40s. The biggest weather story for the weekend continues to be the potent short wave that will be arriving Saturday night into Sunday that may bring widespread accumulating snowfall to Iowa. The greatest uncertainty is over southern Iowa where there is a wide range in solutions regarding how much warm air will lift into Iowa. The ECMWF solutions continue to be the most aggressive with the warm air into Iowa and even the latest deterministic run now has accumulating snowfall well into central Iowa. This has the makings of a well forced event with ample moisture overrunning Iowa and has the potential to bring several inches of snow to parts of Iowa and likely will warrant winter headlines. Very cold air will follow for early next week as a long wave trough digs into the Midwest allowing for 850 mb temperatures approaching negative 10C to reach the region. This timeframe still has record cold potential, especially if there is a fresh snow pack in place. Cold high pressure will be ridging into the area for Monday night though there is some hints that a stratus cloud deck could be undercutting the ridge that would hold temperatures up a bit 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 GFS keeps on pounding IA- E.NE for late wkend 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 22, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 00z Ukie shares the wealth across the heartland...the ICON is also kicking out the SW energy quicker unlike the Euro's bias of a slower ejection. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 WOW- 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 Flakes are finally reaching the ground. 29.1°F. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 This is some high ratio stuff. I haven't really had any appreciable rates so far and it's already accumulating decently. 2 4 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 I recorded 0.35" of rain overnight. At this time there is light rain falling with a temperature of 42.6° Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 GFS is slightly weaker toward my area for late weekend but still not bad. I mean it is October after all. Nice to see the other models and DMX jump on board! GFS for the win? 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 WPC is resisting the thought of snow in E.NE and IA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 Found this page stumbling around on the net' https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=tls Lots of info. I personally like the NDFD Forecast Records (Tie or Break/Near) -https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/ndfd/ndfd.html and this one-- pretty cool stuff NWS NDFD Max/Min Temperatures and Departure from Normal 2 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 When I went to bed the rain bands were developing north and south of Cedar Rapids, but overnight the northern band sank south and then trained through Cedar Rapids. I heard several good cells pass through with heavy rain and a bit of thunder. I love the sound of heavy rain on the roof in the middle of the night. I picked up 1.35". I could get another inch this evening. Sparky got screwed once again. Stations near his location only got a half inch or less. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 2.51" in the 8" at DSM -- lovely tipping bucket that is with ASOS had 2.01" with errors during the heaviest rain (it can't handle weather) -- which one do you think will be used in the climo? automation at it's finest. ( 8" and ASOS are only 800' from each other) 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 Convective sleet quite possible today here in the TC metro. All of this rain I've been hearing about over the last few days is going to stay mostly mixed precip now, which is good. I don't want the rain with the snowpack still around. Still 7" officially otg at MSP as of the 2am report. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 Pouring out there currently and steady at 43°. Saw some lightning on way to work. I'm curious how far north that warm front gets today. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 GFS ensembles starting to move toward a solution for the Sunday-Tuesday storm. EPS not as bullish. 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 57 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: When I went to bed the rain bands were developing north and south of Cedar Rapids, but overnight the northern band sank south and then trained through Cedar Rapids. I heard several good cells pass through with heavy rain and a bit of thunder. I love the sound of heavy rain on the room in the middle of the night. I picked up 1.35". I could get another inch this evening. Sparky got screwed once again. Stations near his location only got a half inch or less. Yeah it was a little lame and underwhelming though not to bad. Got around 0.70” overnight. The gauges varied just a bit on account of breezy winds during the heaviest downpour. Finally had a decent thunderstorm around 3:00am. The Quad Cities were in the heaviest band and CR. almost as heavy according to radar estimates. Hopefully I can score tonight. There is a slight risk over eastern Iowa as well. Nw. Ia. possibly has some thundersnow recently? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 53 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said: Convective sleet quite possible today here in the TC metro. All of this rain I've been hearing about over the last few days is going to stay mostly mixed precip now, which is good. I don't want the rain with the snowpack still around. Still 7" officially otg at MSP as of the 2am report. Man winter came early for you! I’m hoping to get more yard and outdoor work done this afternoon before the cold arrives here. I won’t be ready for winter till the trees shed most of their leaves. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 5 hours ago, Tom said: The stadium appearance of the eye wall never gets old...enjoy! Here is a short clip of the hurricane hunters entering the eye wall. Bless these guys as they must have nerves of steel doing what they do best. https://twitter.com/i/status/1319081639922860034 Excellent vid....thanks for sharing it! These guys truly have an gutsy job. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said: 2.51" in the 8" at DSM -- lovely tipping bucket that is with ASOS had 2.01" with errors during the heaviest rain (it can't handle weather) -- which one do you think will be used in the climo? automation at it's finest. ( 8" and ASOS are only 800' from each other) Can those gauges be calibrated? The Davis brand can, which I did with mine, and it seems to be quite accurate now though sometimes it still isn’t. That’s why I have other gauges as I don’t fully trust electronic gauges. I use the Cocorahs style and go by those, then enter the correct amount on the Davis console if it isn’t already the same amount. Otherwise I love Davis Vantage Pro2 and they can handle rough wx. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 Currently, its at 48F under cloudy, dreary conditions. Skies should bright up later in the day w temps soaring into the 60s and even warmer tomorrow, possibly record high temps. Expected readings to climb into the 70s for Friday, maybe well into the 70s. Severe weather is likely though, as a sharp CF approaches my area. Temps nosedive thereafter. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 9 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said: They're starting to think its highly possible now. Awesome..hope ya score bigly w this one. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 Been stuck in the area of no returns this morning so far. Looks like it is finally starting to fill in a bit. Curious to see what exactly the precip type will be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 0.6" so far. The system has sucked in a bunch of dry air, and everyone, including those forecasted to get jacked by this, is getting screwed. 30.2°F. 2 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 22, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 Local wx station is reporting a 2-day total of 2.62" of rain...I'll take it! Just got back from a walk around the neighborhood and everything is soaked. It's that quintessential autumn-like day with cloudy, dreary skies, cold and damp weather. Currently 49F with calm winds. It will be one of those days where we see 2 seasons as low 70's are in the grid for late this afternoon. Hopefully skies clear up quicker than models show. Didn't realize there was a Flood Advisory hoisted... Quote Flood Advisory Flood Advisory National Weather Service Chicago IL 735 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020 ILC031-037-043-089-093-099-103-197-221430- /O.CON.KLOT.FA.Y.0054.000000T0000Z-201022T1430Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Cook IL-De Kalb IL-DuPage IL-Kane IL-Kendall IL-La Salle IL-Lee IL- Will IL- 735 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020 ...FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR SOUTHERN DE KALB, NORTHERN LA SALLE, SOUTHEASTERN LEE, COOK, DUPAGE, KANE, NORTHERN KENDALL AND NORTHWESTERN WILL COUNTIES... At 735 AM CDT, law enforcement reported minor flooding in flood prone areas in Chicago, including under some viaducts. Additional minor flooding has been reported on some area roadways. Between 1.5 and 3 inches of rain fell from last evening through daybreak. The heavy rain has ended and will allow water to gradually subside. Some locations that will experience flooding include... Chicago, Aurora, Naperville, Elgin, Cicero, Arlington Heights, Evanston, Schaumburg, Bolingbrook, Palatine, Skokie, Des Plaines, Oak Lawn, Berwyn, Mount Prospect, Wheaton, Hoffman Estates, Oak Park, Downers Grove and Glenview. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 41 minutes ago, Sparky said: Man winter came early for you! I’m hoping to get more yard and outdoor work done this afternoon before the cold arrives here. I won’t be ready for winter till the trees shed most of their leaves. It's been a pretty good start so far! Good luck getting the yardwork completed. That's something I was unable to do. I fear what my lawn is going to look like in the Spring if I can get the remaining leaves up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 34F and pingers with light snow mixed in currently. Dark as night out there. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 40 minutes ago, Sparky said: Can those gauges be calibrated? The Davis brand can, which I did with mine, and it seems to be quite accurate now though sometimes it still isn’t. That’s why I have other gauges as I don’t fully trust electronic gauges. I use the Cocorahs style and go by those, then enter the correct amount on the Davis console if it isn’t already the same amount. Otherwise I love Davis Vantage Pro2 and they can handle rough wx. They are maintained quarterly by Elec Techs with the NWS- however - NWS even admits that NO tipping bucket is a accurate as the olde' 8". Heavy rains, tipping buckets "spill" some of the water and off by 10-15%. It's really bad in the Winter when snow rations are high as the heated element in the AWPAG evaporates some of the liquid making snow rations look bad at most sites not manned/augmented with a CWO. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNTonka Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 Just had a flash of lightning and thunder here with sleet. The sky is really strange looking right now. 4 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 15 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said: 34F and pingers with light snow mixed in currently. Dark as night out there. Really dark down here too. Rain let up for now but still sitting at 43°. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, MNTonka said: Just had a flash of lightning and thunder here with sleet. The sky is really strange looking right now. Crazy sky. Snowing like mad now here on the Minneapolis/Roseville line. I heard the thunder but didn't see the flash. Good stuff. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 Finally starting to snow here, although radar up this way is rather sad looking as of right now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 Just now, Stormgeek said: Finally starting to snow here, although radar up this way is rather sad looking as of right now. Pretty pathetic here too all around. Pixie dust is about as good as anyone can expect. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 HRRR really stating to show warm front struggling more and more to make it much past Polk Country -- (DSM)- shows a 20 degree spread in Polk Cty for much of this afternoon. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 WF is having a hard time moving through my area. Currently at 48F w showers. Very raw, Autumn looking day w leaves already starting to fall. These Fall days are always welcome. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 22, 2020 Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 Actually ripping pretty well now. Like I said earlier, this stuff is high ratio so I'm up to an inch now. 30.4*F. 2 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.