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October 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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2 minutes ago, Tom said:

Here's the reason why the skies are so dark over IA/MN and nearby...smoke has make an appearance...

https://twitter.com/i/status/1319277460756729862

also here--https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-N_Iowa-truecolor-24-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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52 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

They are maintained quarterly by Elec Techs with the NWS- however - NWS even admits that NO tipping bucket is a accurate as the olde' 8". Heavy rains, tipping buckets "spill" some of the water and off by 10-15%. It's really bad in the Winter when snow rations are high as the heated element in the AWPAG evaporates some of the liquid making snow rations look bad at most sites not manned/augmented with a CWO.

Thanks. I agree, those heaters are worthless. At least the one I had put in mine was. I retired that heater years ago as the only time it could keep up was when temps were near freezing and there wasn’t much wind and even then it was a lost cause because like you said, there is evaporation going on. I’ve noticed for years that winter precipitation is really underreported or is more than what’s reported, so winter liquid equivalent precipitation I take with a grain of salt! It takes work and diligence recording accurate totals. Anyway, no gauge is totally accurate as far as I know.

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9 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z ICON out with it's coldest and snowiest solution so far.

1603886400-f17M0idp0J8.png

Platte river doing its part? The river is pretty much completely dry, now it's gonna make storms dry out in the area!! I'm 20 miles south of the river so that will make me happy.......not. 

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2 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Drained and turned off the underground sprinklers this morning, our school is on Fall Break today and tomorrow, so I knew it had to be done. Supposed to get down to 24 degrees tonight. 

I need to do that and winterize my camper!! I plan on doing it on Saturday; I'm hoping we don't get too cold tonight or tomorrow. 

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5 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Even gives mby a dab. I wouldn't mind getting in the game for a minute, tho trees still have too many leaves for anything hvy

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Yeah the weekend storm will be frustrating around here if it pans out like the GFS has been showing.  The snow hits western and even central Iowa and then really weakens and falls apart.  Still shows some accumulating snow here though.  Upon further review though, it is at least a little better this run in Eastern Iowa than the past few runs.  So maybe we are heading in the right direction.  GFS has been pretty consistent with this event so far. 

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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Good news and bad news.

Good news: Radar is way better than models said it would be. Hooray!

Bad news: This storm is way more progressive than models said it would be, and I'll probably see my last flakes in the mid afternoon.

Up to 2".

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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4 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Yeah the weekend storm will be frustrating around here if it pans out like the GFS has been showing.  The snow hits western and even central Iowa and then really weakens and falls apart.  Still shows some accumulating snow here though.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

"toss" 🙊 My office isn't even mentioning flakes in this morning's AFD. I don't see any temp maps that would support more than a dab or flurry here either, so this map's surprising to say the least.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I like the baby steps the GFS UKIE just took today and ejecting out the energy faster out of the SW and phasing with the northern branch.  We saw this many times last year when models struggled with the energy in the SW.  I think its a lot to do with the -EPO and also the +NAO that we will have present during this period.  Hopefully the Ukie and Euro side with the trends today.

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0.7" rain per the airport here last night is a welcomed drink. Mowed most of the lawn yesterday afternoon to take advantage a the brief dry day. Only expecting mid-60's here with this torch event. Looks like the warmest hours happen overnight so I end up with a dark-hours high of 66F then we fall during the day Friday. Per recent events tho, touching 70F wouldn't shock me.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 minutes ago, Tom said:

I like the baby steps the GFS just took today and ejecting out the energy faster out of the SW and phasing with the northern branch.  We saw this many times last year when models struggled with the energy in the SW.  I think its a lot to do with the -EPO and also the +NAO that we will have present during this period.  Hopefully the Ukie and Euro side with the trends today.

Gonna make me start watching models now too, lol. Thx for commenting on this. Maybe Nina comes through for us, eh?? 

Here's what skiers out west are thinking about it..

 

attack_of_la_nina!.jpg

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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10 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Gonna make me start watching models now too, lol. Thx for commenting on this. Maybe Nina comes through for us, eh?? 

Here's what skiers out west are thinking about it..

 

attack_of_la_nina!.jpg

I am not sure whether they are in favor or against La Nina from this.  For snow out west, unless they are in southern California, Arizona, and New Mexico, they should be all in favor of La Nina.  No two la ninas are the same, but the best snow years for the west in general are La Nina years.  In recent memory 2016-17 is an example (2010-11 as well I think).    

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35 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Hi-Res GFS seems to be running colder, similar to the ICON.

snodpc_acc.conus.png

this is crazy - has snow down to near Del Rio,TX in late OCT?

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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1 minute ago, Stormhunter87 said:

Pretty far south but that panhandle part of texas gets wild swings.

Yep- Dalhart,TX actually is colder in the in the winter than places such as Springfield,MO

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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38 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Is it the elevation?

Yes sir ..its the elevation. Its at 3,605' and in case you are wondering, their mayor there is Ginger Nelson. Added a little bonus for ya there pal.

Btw: elevation does play a major role. Dont forget that!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Attm, temps are inching slowly into the low 50s (51F) and the rain has ended. Skies are very overcast. Maybe some sunshine coming through those angry, Autumn clouds. We will see.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 hour ago, bud2380 said:

70 degrees 2 counties south of Iowa City and creeping this way.  I hope it gets up here.  I'd like to feel the warmth one last time. 

I don't think the front is getting up here.  It is still only in the low 50s here and low 60s in Iowa City, and even Sigourney and Oskaloosa continue to have an east wind.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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