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October 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Woke up to the sound of the trees blowing in the wind along with a nice warm breeze flowing through the house.  It's currently 71F with a touch of humidity in the air.  Enjoying the last few hours of this storm enduced warm up.

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Des Moines NWS with a good opening to their morning write up:

Continue to mark off the long laundry list of weather as they occur
across Iowa this week. Heavy banded snow, check. Thunderstorms with
locally heavy rainfall and marginal severe weather, check. A 48
degree high temperature gradient across Iowa, check. Yes 48 degrees!
Estherville`s high temperature was 33 while several locations
reported 81 degrees over southeast Iowa. Unfortunately, a couple of
items on the list are still yet to come in the forecast. Widespread
accumulating snowfall potential Saturday night into Sunday night
followed by potential record cold for early next week.
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I fell asleep early last night, but the rain woke me up a few times.  Once again, Cedar Rapids was in a good spot as quite a few cells trained through the area.  I picked up 1.58", even better than the previous night.  My 2-day total is 2.97", at the high end of the model range.

I hope the recent trend of Cedar Rapids getting bulls-eyed by storm events continues through winter.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I just got back from a nice walk. It is cloudy and very misty here in my area. The current temperature here at my house is 62 with a DP of 61 the official reading down at GRR is 67 with a DP of 62. The warmest so far here at my house is 64 and out at the airport the high so far has been 68. It had gotten has warm as 71 at Holland but is now down to 63. To the north at Big Rapids the high there so far is 58. Down at Benton Harbor the high got up to 74 late last night and is still at 70. 

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1 minute ago, westMJim said:

I just got back from a nice walk. It is cloudy and very misty here in my area. The current temperature here at my house is 62 with a DP of 61 the official reading down at GRR is 67 with a DP of 62. The warmest so far here at my house is 64 and out at the airport the high so far has been 68. It had gotten has warm as 71 at Holland but is now down to 63. To the north at Big Rapids the high there so far is 58. Down at Benton Harbor the high got up to 74 late last night and is still at 70. 

I would like to add that as has been the case several times already this fall season the high for the date has been before sun rise.

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Crazy weather today in SEMI will be on schedule to develop in the pm hours......this is my headline:

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
436 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2020

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-240830-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
436 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with a passing cold
front this afternoon and evening. The main threat will be damaging
winds, but marginally severe hail and a few weak tornadoes are also
possible. Some of the heaviest downpours may produce localized
flooding. Storm motion will be from WNW to ESE at 55 mph.
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Currently at 61F w breezy conditions and skies are a blend of clouds N sunshine. It feels humid as well.

 

Btw: snow is mentioned in my forecast come Monday nite, rain changes to snow w lows near or below freezing. First flakes of the season will be possible imby. Jaster, you must have it in your forecast as well.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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For awhile I thought I’m going to miss out on much rainfall, but the rain band finally shifted southeast far enough to bring on off heavy showers after midnight, but they were less intense by then and the lightning had disappeared though more lightning developed just east of the Mississippi River this morning. So no thunder here. Still picked up exactly 1.40” bringing my total to 2.10” with yesterday. 

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15 hours ago, Sparky said:

The warm front moved through here at 3:17pm. while I was mowing the lawn in short sleeves! It was mild with an east breeze then suddenly the wind shifted to the ssw. and warmed up some more. Usually the wind slowly shifts around with a w.f. but this was a strong front. It’s in the mid 70°s with a dew in the upper 60°s while it’s winter across nw. Ia. all day! 

 I kept forgetting to ask you...do you have horses there as well or no. I think I saw a buggy. Your place there seems to have a georgic feeling to it. Nice!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Attm, its 75F w windy conditions. Looks like a squall-line about to hit.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Nice to see Bliz Warnings hoisted again!

On 10/20/2020 at 8:58 AM, CentralNebWeather said:

NWS Hastings:










Dry and chilly conditions Fri into Sat will give way to incr
potential for wintry pcpn Sat night into Sun as a strong upper
disturbance (near -2 std dev at H5 per latest EPS) digs into N
Rockies and provides reinforcing shot of cold air. In fact, very
impressive -20C H85 temp anomalies relative to 2000-2019 M-climate
are poised to move in on Sun and brief inspection of forecast
soundings show temp profiles more akin to winter months. The
anomalous cold looks like a good bet, but details regarding
potential for accum snw remains to be worked out. Nonetheless,
decent run to run and model to model agreement (including
ensembles) argues for incr confidence for at least minor snw
accums for at least portions of the CWA this weekend. Stay tuned.

 

  • Snow 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Storm system on Monday will be a soaker. Excellent track for huge snowmaker had it been a month later or so. Monday nite could mix w snow.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Temps are dropping. The front has not yet rolled on through, but it is not that far away. Then things should begin to clear out nicely w temps dropping in the mid 30s.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The last few days have been very wet across the MW/GL's....esp in parts of IA and WI...

1.png

 

 

Meantime, it's the coldest morning of the season IMBY with a chilly temp of 34F.  Might have a chance to dip to freezing this morning.  I'm hoping to see some thicker Frost this morning.

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Made it down to 32F for the 1st time this season!  Not as much frost as I'd imagine but there is heavy frost on the car tops and roofs.  I'm waiting for things to dry out this weekend into next week before I rake any leaves.  The extended looks dry into Halloween weekend so I think that will be a good time to perform Round 1 of outdoor yard work.

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11 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Slight drop in temps the last 24 or so.... lol

current.TAIR_24H.grad.png

In a VERY RARE day in history, Marshall has beaten the notoriously volatile Plains in the temps swing dept. We hit 71F about 1:30 pm Friday afternoon and bottomed out at a frosty 30F about 8 am this morning. Helluva CF is all I can say!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Mostly cloudy skies w temps at 44F. Lows bottomed out at 33F. Huge drop from 75F. Powerful CF!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Weekend looks dry w temps in the 40s and lows near freezing or lower. Next week looks BN ( a good 10 degrees or so). Temps stay uniformed throughout the week.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Zeta could be coming in the picture soon......stay tuned! This will tie the record set back in 2005. My goal is to break it!

https://wordpress.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Screen-Shot-2020-10-22-at-10.38.46-AM.png?w=632

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Could we finally be looking at our first true OHV Low next week?

-- Late week southern stream storm needs watched --

Later in the week a srn stream system/closed upr low, which taps
moisture from the tropical system in the Gulf, tracks east-
northeast from Texas. Most medium range deterministic guidance
has been indicating that this system stays south of us, but some
ensemble members suggest that heavier precip associated with the
deformation zone may impact srn Lwr Mi.

Over half of the ECMWF ensemble members are showing rain at AZO
on Thursday, and about a third of the members produce over an inch
of rain. Some of them even have over two inches of rain, and that
is true at GRR as well. This would be a cold rain if it happened
with a sfc high situated to our north and a northeast sfc wind.

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Gosh, I sure hope the Euro is onto something cuz the 12z GFS is 15 days of utter boredom. around here anyways.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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45 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Could we finally be looking at our first true OHV Low next week?


-- Late week southern stream storm needs watched --

Later in the week a srn stream system/closed upr low, which taps
moisture from the tropical system in the Gulf, tracks east-
northeast from Texas. Most medium range deterministic guidance
has been indicating that this system stays south of us, but some
ensemble members suggest that heavier precip associated with the
deformation zone may impact srn Lwr Mi.

Over half of the ECMWF ensemble members are showing rain at AZO
on Thursday, and about a third of the members produce over an inch
of rain. Some of them even have over two inches of rain, and that
is true at GRR as well. This would be a cold rain if it happened
with a sfc high situated to our north and a northeast sfc wind.

 

I could only imagine the fun a month from now w these storm systems.....😀

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Partly cloudy skies w temps at 43F. Lows dropping tanite to near 30F.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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On 10/23/2020 at 7:12 PM, Niko said:

Storm system on Monday will be a soaker. Excellent track for huge snowmaker had it been a month later or so. Monday nite could mix w snow.

Looks like this is staying well south of us now. WPC has the 29-30th system even further south so Idk what GRR was smoking when they wrote this morning's AFD??

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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10 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Looks like this is staying well south of us now. WPC has the 29-30th system even further south so Idk what GRR was smoking when they wrote this morning's AFD??

The latest run of the GFS brings rain right up to your doorstep bud I think there's a lot left to figure out what this one

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