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October 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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20 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Looks like this is staying well south of us now. WPC has the 29-30th system even further south so Idk what GRR was smoking when they wrote this morning's AFD??

Yep, I saw that. My grid shows only 30% of any possible rainfall for mby w Mondays system.

Btw: my temps are falling like a rock. Already down to 33F and still plenty of nighttime hours to go. My low is definitely heading into the 20s. Cold nite!

As for the late week system, still plenty of time to figure this thing out.  I just hope I get a big Autumn rainstorm outta it. Remember, not snow yet.

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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11 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Could we finally be looking at our first true OHV Low next week?


-- Late week southern stream storm needs watched --

Later in the week a srn stream system/closed upr low, which taps
moisture from the tropical system in the Gulf, tracks east-
northeast from Texas. Most medium range deterministic guidance
has been indicating that this system stays south of us, but some
ensemble members suggest that heavier precip associated with the
deformation zone may impact srn Lwr Mi.

Over half of the ECMWF ensemble members are showing rain at AZO
on Thursday, and about a third of the members produce over an inch
of rain. Some of them even have over two inches of rain, and that
is true at GRR as well. This would be a cold rain if it happened
with a sfc high situated to our north and a northeast sfc wind.

 

I've been watching to see how the models handle the ULL and the GOM energy over the past few days.  The system targeting the Rockies/Plains right now has an asterisk next to it for future cycles.  The way the models are trending for the time being seems to take the system on an almost perfect track for @OKwx2k4, KS/MO/MW/Lower Lakes members.  Love seeing the GOM connection and cold HP to the north.  Great pattern setting up.

 

00z GEFS trending better...

1.gif

 

 

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06z GFS trending better for us near the lower lakes region...big shifts NW and showing signs of nice phasing/strengthening...haven't seen a storm set up like this so far with this season.

This storm is part of the Storm thread already up, but I'm thinking we could issue another separate one and call it "part 2"???  Or just extend the current storm thread....thoughts???

1.gif

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We continue to set snow cover records for the lower 48 where close to 17% of the CONUS has snow OTG.  With more snow on the way, this record cold/wintry stretch could be one for the record books.

nsm_depth_2020102405_National.jpg

 

Furthermore, the North American snow cover extent has shot up like a rocket...this will likely go up even farther over the next couple days...

../plots/daily_snow_extent/multisensor_4km_na_snow_extent_by_year_graph.png 

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On my walk yesterday I noticed that there is still a lot of good color on the leaves here in the Grand Rapids area this has been one of the best color seasons here in many years. Yesterdays high of 49 was the coldest official high here at Grand Rapids since May 11. The overnight low both here at my house and at the airport was 35. At this time it is cloudy and 37 here at my house.

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

06z GFS trending better for us near the lower lakes region...big shifts NW and showing signs of nice phasing/strengthening...haven't seen a storm set up like this so far with this season.

This storm is part of the Storm thread already up, but I'm thinking we could issue another separate one and call it "part 2"???  Or just extend the current storm thread....thoughts???

1.gif

I'm good with that, what happens with this will be important down the road.

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

06z GFS trending better for us near the lower lakes region...big shifts NW and showing signs of nice phasing/strengthening...haven't seen a storm set up like this so far with this season.

This storm is part of the Storm thread already up, but I'm thinking we could issue another separate one and call it "part 2"???  Or just extend the current storm thread....thoughts???

1.gif

Great trends, friend. Like Clinton said, this coming in future cycles could be bigly. I'd split this into it's own thd since it's not snow and we shouldn't contaminate the current "snowstorm" thd imho. You know there will be just a few of us posting on it anyways as always for east-end events. Looking like WC's in the 30's Thursday pm regardless of how much liquid is falling from the sky with it. That'll be classic rawness that I remember from NMI climo.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said:

Seems like I'll be expecting yet ANOTHER sunny day. Bleh. 21.2*F.

I thought I'd be saying that about the next 2 wks the way yesterday's GFS looked here, but things are turning a corner. Should at least get grazed by the OHV Low. The pattern prior to this latest active-n-cold shift indeed featured long stretches of very sunny/dry/boring wx so I figured we were just cycling back thru that phase.

Speaking of the active pattern, no matter if you're looking at the actual data, or smoothed averages, it's been much wetter than it's felt around here the past week-ish. 1.5"+ qpf is ofc way AN for a change. Nina magic happening after 2 mos of drought to near drought from mby and south to the OH river.

 

20201023 precip 7day totals-multi sensor.png

20201023 precip 7day totals.png

20201023 percent of mean 7day totals.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

06z GFS trending better for us near the lower lakes region...big shifts NW and showing signs of nice phasing/strengthening...haven't seen a storm set up like this so far with this season.

This storm is part of the Storm thread already up, but I'm thinking we could issue another separate one and call it "part 2"???  Or just extend the current storm thread....thoughts???

1.gif

I like what I am seeing so far, in terms of storm tracks and w this kind of path, come couple of weeks from now, our locales will get inundated w snow. Good signs!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Currently, a cold 38F under cloudy skies. I swear, when I was just outside doing some cleaning up, the air smelled like snow. Man, what ta great feeling that is, especially as ya get closer to the holidays.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Switching gears now, the tropics have tied a record for most storms, since 2005. TS Zeta has formed. Not sure, but doesn't LA seem to be the "Hot Spot" this tropical season to get hit w hurricanes. Almost seems like hurricanes are taking the same track on and on and on repeatingly Wow!

https://wordpress.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Zeta.jpg?w=632

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 minute ago, Niko said:

I like what I am seeing so far, in terms of storm tracks and w this kind of path, come couple of weeks from now, our locales will get inundated w snow. Good signs!

You meant couple of months? Analog seasons have November being warm to very warm. Unless this tosses that out the window and reloads on the cold, it may be December before one of these has enough cold to work with. Thanksgiving '04 was about perfect with a 6-12" storm to kick-off that great winter. I know you've been saying you wanted to wait til that time frame for real snow.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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On 10/25/2020 at 11:16 AM, jaster220 said:

You meant couple of months? Analog seasons have November being warm to very warm. Unless this tosses that out the window and reloads on the cold, it may be December before one of these has enough cold to work with. Thanksgiving '04 was about perfect with a 6-12" storm to kick-off that great winter. I know you've been saying you wanted to wait til that time frame for real snow.

No, in a couple of weeks. Man, those tracks will be a big bonus for our areas.

I kinda like the i.e you brought up for "Thanksgiving 2004." That would be exactly the path that I want this Winter to take. Where do I sign for that.......

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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2 minutes ago, Niko said:

No, actually, in a few weeks. Man, those tracks will be a big bonus for our areas.

I kinda like the i.e you brought up for "Thanksgiving 2004." That would be exactly the path that I want this Winter to take. Where do I sign for that.......

Yeah, 04-05 absolutely rocked SEMI. It was slightly less awesome here in SWMI, but still featured that T-day storm, and a great hit from the Jan bliz. Some of the other storms stayed just northeast tho, similar to 17-18 season. We will have to see what November does. It may remain cold but lack the big S Stream system we see coming this Thursday. The clipper train would be fine by me too. Now, I've said before that Nov of 2013 was very cold, and I got to enjoy 2 major LES storms as I was working along Lk Michigan then. There were synoptic storms that month, but actually SE of the Mitt. The cold pushed the storm track south of us, then it relaxed back to perfection during the bulk of the winter. Had November delivered even one single synoptic storm for SMI, it would've been even more legendary. That's the one puzzle piece we never found during that historic period. Maybe we get that with this autumn's pattern?

GRR on Thursday..

Quote

Much of the upcoming week will be dry, but could be interesting
around Thursday. The developing tropical system in the Gulf is
progd to move over Louisiana Wednesday as it begins moving north.
At the same time the developing southern Plains low will be
starting to move east. The GFS has been advertising that the two
will move out separately, but the ECMWF suggests that the two may
phase a bit and move northeast. The 00z GFS suggests that the
remnant tropical system will stay south over the Ohio Valley, but
the trailing southern Plains low may be far enough northwest to
spread rain over the CWA as early as Thursday morning. The GFS
paints 1.2-1.5 inches of rain southeast of a Lansing to Kalamazoo
line. ECMWF ensembles hint at some decent rainfall too, perhaps
due to the phasing with the tropical system.

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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12 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Yeah, 04-05 absolutely rocked SEMI. It was slightly less awesome here in SWMI, but still featured that T-day storm, and a great hit from the Jan bliz. Some of the other storms stayed just northeast tho, similar to 17-18 season. We will have to see what November does. It may remain cold but lack the big S Stream system we see coming this Thursday. The clipper train would be fine by me too. Now, I've said before that Nov of 2013 was very cold, and I got to enjoy 2 major LES storms as I was working along Lk Michigan then. There were synoptic storms that month, but actually SE of the Mitt. The cold pushed the storm track south of us, then it relaxed back to perfection during the bulk of the winter. Had November delivered even one single synoptic storm for SMI, it would've been even more legendary. That's the one puzzle piece we never found during that historic period. Maybe we get that with this autumn's pattern?

GRR on Thursday..

 

Tbh amigo, I am impressed w the way some of these storms tracks look and it has been setting up shop so far. That is a good indication for our area. I think that this year, we will do well. Its all about phasing!

Btw: good write-up from GRR.....That is what we like to see come down the road.

FWIW: Last Winter my area did fairly decent in terms of snowfall. Managed to top off at 49" or so, which is not too shabby. How did you do? I think you did okay as well, no?!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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2 minutes ago, Niko said:

Tbh amigo, I am impressed w the way some of these storms tracks look and it has been setting up shop so far. That is a good indication for our area. I think that this year, we will do well. Its all about phasing!

Btw: good write-up from GRR.....

Me too. I think that adjusted winter map from Direct Wx has a good chance of being accurate. Waiting to see what other updated outlooks are showing as well. Heck, even the NOAA outlook was very positive, and that happens about once in a decade it seems, lol

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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16 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Me too. I think that adjusted winter map from Direct Wx has a good chance of being accurate. Waiting to see what other updated outlooks are showing as well. Heck, even the NOAA outlook was very positive, and that happens about once in a decade it seems, lol

Tbh, when I saw that "Huge" shift from them, I literally jumped outta my chair. I mean, daaaaaammmmnnnnnnnnnn! Cannot believe how far west they shifted that red color (to near Clintons area). Also, I can see why they did that. They believe that the jet stream will be positioned at that degree, where the storm track will be most active. Heavy snows will fall within that vicinity this Winter and we and some other posters on here are in that path, including Tom and OKwx2k4.

As for NOAA, they are very conservative, but yes, for them to be agreeing on a good Winter, then, I feel more secure about it as well.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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16 hours ago, Tom said:

We continue to set snow cover records for the lower 48 where close to 17% of the CONUS has snow OTG.  With more snow on the way, this record cold/wintry stretch could be one for the record books.

nsm_depth_2020102405_National.jpg

 

Furthermore, the North American snow cover extent has shot up like a rocket...this will likely go up even farther over the next couple days...

../plots/daily_snow_extent/multisensor_4km_na_snow_extent_by_year_graph.png 

Feel like I owe an apology because I said your post calling this a unique and historic October event "wasn't that unique". Guess I'd forgotten that most of MSP's "Halloween storm" fell the day after, thus NOT in October. I remember my sister calling me on the phone (remember paying long-distance rates?) saying how the kids were trick-or-treating in 8" of new snow and the forecast was calling for 20" more! That kind of total is like the biggest historical blizzard in the dead of winter for SMI. I thought it was insane to have that much snow at Halloween! Obviously, I wasn't well informed about climo west of the Lakes region back then. That's some off the chart snow cover on your graph, let's just hope this is a sustained deal, and not winter trading seasons with autumn.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I wanted to comment on something I posted a while back in early October when we had weak piece of energy that targeted So Cal around the 10th of this month, that eventually cut-off near the Baja of Cali for days on end.  This energy circled around in the E PAC for days.  While doing so, I had a feeling this would be a big clue for the developing LRC.  Eventually, this energy tracked back into So Cal this past Sunday is phasing into the flow which is impacting the energy in the SW right now.

Oct. 10th...

Click Image for larger 500-mb Map

 

Oct 15th...

Click Image for larger 500-mb Map

 

Check out the 500mb animation below and you'll see how this energy ends up racing eastward across the SW/TX/OK region today...

1.gif

 

I believe that as we move deeper into the cold season and as the jet continues to strengthen, along with the seasonal adjustments that will take place, these troughs will pay big dividends and may actually provide the SW Flow that benefits a lot our members.  

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While I am making a big pot of chicken soup on this cold Autumn day, I was surprised to look out my kitchen window and the flakes are flying again!  Nice to see it snow during the day with the leaves falling off the trees and a NW wind blowing.  The flakes are actually a decent size as well.  Temp has been steady at 34F.  #FirstFlakes

 

 

1.jpg

 

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Hard to believe there is snow in parts of Texas, while there is a strong TS approaching the GOM......talk about contrast

https://wordpress.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/page-24-3.jpg?w=632

https://wordpress.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ezgif.com-gif-maker-34.gif?w=632

 

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Currently at 41F under cloudy skies. Looks dry w slight chance of wet weather.

It gets very chilly by weeks end as temps will fall into the 20s w possible snowshowers.

 

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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14 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Both the Euro and GFS agree on the jet stream lifting up north into Canada for the extended, so not likely to be much sensible weather for most members of the forum for the forseeable future once this current system exits.

 

 

300wh.conus.png

Ya, that has been my expectations to open Nov in a Zonal Flow aloft till about the Nov 7th/8th timeframe where we should see a storm system develop in the heartland.  It can't always be active and let the atmosphere get primed up for the next onslaught coming down the road by mid Nov IMO, esp late Nov.

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I will have plenty of work to do in the yard/garden, so a nice stretch of mild weather in November would be great.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I had a skiff ( 0.3” )of snow this morning as winter like wx continues. Looking forward to more fall like conditions in a few days. Some trees still are very pretty while others are bare or even green. Thankfully we’re just gradually moving into colder weather which is better for trees, etc. 

I haven’t checked this thread for a number of days with a lot going on, so I’m way behind still.

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11 hours ago, Tom said:

I wanted to comment on something I posted a while back in early October when we had weak piece of energy that targeted So Cal around the 10th of this month, that eventually cut-off near the Baja of Cali for days on end.  This energy circled around in the E PAC for days.  While doing so, I had a feeling this would be a big clue for the developing LRC.  Eventually, this energy tracked back into So Cal this past Sunday is phasing into the flow which is impacting the energy in the SW right now.

Oct. 10th...

Click Image for larger 500-mb Map

 

Oct 15th...

Click Image for larger 500-mb Map

 

Check out the 500mb animation below and you'll see how this energy ends up racing eastward across the SW/TX/OK region today...

1.gif

 

I believe that as we move deeper into the cold season and as the jet continues to strengthen, along with the seasonal adjustments that will take place, these troughs will pay big dividends and may actually provide the SW Flow that benefits a lot our members.  

Nice job picking up on that and tracking it through to the expected conclusion. Great pattern recognition bud! Congrats on 1st flakes today as well 👍

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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15 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Because its 2020, you need a hurricane and a snowstorm, in the Southern US, in October, all at once right?

Sure, why not?

 

Screenshot_20201026-154200_Brave.jpg

While it is another unique wx happening in this strange year let's remember that Sandy was both a hurricane and a blizzard for certain regions of the east. I'd vote for a repeat in Dec so the tropical storm could indeed become an OHV bliz

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Because its 2020, you need a hurricane and a snowstorm, in the Southern US, in October, all at once right?

Sure, why not?

 

Screenshot_20201026-154200_Brave.jpg

I agree.....check this crazy map out as well.......Winterstorm warnings in Texas and other Winter Advisories in nearby states, where a lovely Zeta  (Hurricane) is in the GOM.........

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/US.png

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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20 minutes ago, Niko said:

I agree.....check this crazy map out as well.......Winterstorm warnings in Texas and other Winter Advisories in nearby states, where a lovely Zeta  (Hurricane) is in the GOM.........

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/US.png

I heard that OKC had its earliest Ice Storm Warning in history...pretty incredible

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First snowflakes of the season possible for my area by late Thurs nite into Fri morning..........

NOAA:

Quote: Although there is a strong consensus the northern stream energy coming over the top of the northern Rockies will be sufficient to boot the southern system to the East by Thursday, with northern edge of the precipitation shield probably reaching into the southern Great Lakes. There seems to be about 50 percent probability based on looking at the 50 members of the European ensembles from last night (00z). If the deformation holds on into Thursday night, enough cold air wrapping in could support precipitation tapering off to snow before ending, as 12z Euro brings -6 to -8 C temps at 850 MB in by Friday morning.

 

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  • Snow 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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26 minutes ago, Niko said:

First snowflakes of the season possible for my area by late Thurs nite into Fri morning..........

NOAA:

Quote: Although there is a strong consensus the northern stream energy coming over the top of the northern Rockies will be sufficient to boot the southern system to the East by Thursday, with northern edge of the precipitation shield probably reaching into the southern Great Lakes. There seems to be about 50 percent probability based on looking at the 50 members of the European ensembles from last night (00z). If the deformation holds on into Thursday night, enough cold air wrapping in could support precipitation tapering off to snow before ending, as 12z Euro brings -6 to -8 C temps at 850 MB in by Friday morning.

 

Thinking you have a better shot than I do at this point. SEMI has been colder relative to averages the past few winters it seems. Maybe we both get in on a few flakes?

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I'm getting another bout of light snow this morning with a temp holding steady at 35F.  The wind is calm and the flakes are falling down in a peaceful way.  I took a step back and had to take in the moment with the leaves on my deck and the patio light shining throughout my back yard.  The simple things in life.

 

  

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