October 2020 Observations and Discussion

[westMJim]

At this time there is some light rain falling and the temperature is 38. It stayed cloudy last night and the low here was 38. The color is still very good in this area.

[mlgamer]

This is the 4th consecutive October that we have had measurable snowfall in TOP. There was no measurable snowfall in the previous twenty Octobers.

This may not be all that meaningful because I'm guessing there have been trace amounts of snow in some of those years and we've had not much more than a trace in 3 of the 4 years with measurable snow.  So maybe not all that noteworthy as it may appear. October snowfalls have not necessarily resulted in more snowier winters here either...normal seasonal snowfall is about 17.8".

       October snowfalls:

• 2017: 0.4"   season total: 8.1"
• 2018: 0.5"   season total: 27.1"
• 2019: 1.5"   season total: 11.7"
• 2020: 0.6"  season total: ???
• 1997-2016: 0.0"

[Niko]

9 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Thinking you have a better shot than I do at this point. SEMI has been colder relative to averages the past few winters it seems. Maybe we both get in on a few flakes?

Tbh, a few snowflakes only to start off the season would be fun.....kinda get us into the holiday spirit.

[Niko]

Currently, its 41F under mostly cloudy skies. Clouds are hanging tough. 

Note: my area now is "Past Peak."

Note: Very chilly air arrives by Saturday morning. We could be seeing teens and lower 20s for lows.

[jaster220]

Since Thursday is now suppression city, this active period seems to have ended here already. Now we go quiet. For how long? Hyper active or hyper calm seems the pattern to this point. 

[Niko]

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Since Thursday is now suppression city, this active period seems to have ended here already. Now we go quiet. For how long? Hyper active or hyper calm seems the pattern to this point. 

Ready for this........

It does remain quiet and temps stay BN until next week when we jump up to near normal, even above. That map above ya looks balmy, doesnt it?! Tbh, I'll take this weather in a heartbeat and wait till end of the month for "Real Winter to start."

[gimmesnow]

I hope November isn't mild, it needs to get cold so we have a good chance to blow snow. Last fall there was one good chance in November, a lot of ski resorts didn't take it, and they had a very difficult time making snow for Christmas. I really wish this cold snap came in the second week of November and we had a mild October.

[bud2380]

This would really fall under the November thread once that is up and running, but the GFS is showing this extremely strong ridge finally breaking down in about the day 10-11 time frame.  -42 below normal along the Montana/Canada border.  Wow.

 

[Clinton]

11 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

This would really fall under the November thread once that is up and running, but the GFS is showing this extremely strong ridge finally breaking down in about the day 10-11 time frame.  -42 below normal along the Montana/Canada border.  Wow.

 

Also develops a storm in the plains on the 9th, lets see if it holds and moves it up a few days.  I've been looking for one around the 5th-8th time frame using the BSR.

[bud2380]

[gimmesnow]

23 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

This would really fall under the November thread once that is up and running, but the GFS is showing this extremely strong ridge finally breaking down in about the day 10-11 time frame.  -42 below normal along the Montana/Canada border.  Wow.

 

If that came eastward just a little bit they could blow snow like crazy. It's borderline right now.

[Niko]

Its a very raw, cold, dismal day today w temps at 39F. Roads are now considered to be slippery w wet roads and fallen leaves otg. Not a good combo.

Feels very Halloweenish tbh!    

 

[Niko]

Here we go again LA......this must be the 5th Tropical storm this season that has hit this area (whether a Hurricane or TS)...unreal!

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

I have now seen more snow this October than I saw in my first full Winter in Lincoln.

[james1976]

Yeah the 10-11 day time-frame is looking intriguing. Tom and Clinton have mentioned that a few times i believe. Let's hope for it.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, james1976 said:

Yeah the 10-11 day time-frame is looking intriguing. Tom and Clinton have mentioned that a few times i believe. Let's hope for it.

This is the storm that tracked over the Bearing Sea/Aleutians back on Oct 22nd-25th....interestingly, both the GEFS/EPS have trended markedly colder/stormier during the Week 2 period.  Let's see how it evolves. 

[OKwx2k4]

On 10/26/2020 at 4:05 PM, jaster220 said:

While it is another unique wx happening in this strange year let's remember that Sandy was both a hurricane and a blizzard for certain regions of the east. I'd vote for a repeat in Dec so the tropical storm could indeed become an OHV bliz

You're correct. A "Sandy" type storm is technically possible here if I think about it. I've felt a couple TS and TDs here over the years. Would be neat to see one phase and launch ala "Edmund Fitzgerald" style up your direction.

[Niko]

Currently 37F w rain. Very chilly day. Running a good 20 degrees BN. Did not get outta the 30s for highs today, wow!

Jaster, are ya seeing any snowflakes mixing in.......don't be surprised if ya do.

[Niko]

2 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

You're correct. A "Sandy" type storm is technically possible here if I think about it. I've felt a couple TS and TDs here over the years. Would be neat to see one phase and launch ala "Edmund Fitzgerald" style up your direction.

Did ya get any ice or snow. I saw that it got pretty wild down there w all sorts of advisories.

[OKwx2k4]

30 minutes ago, Tom said:

This is the storm that tracked over the Bearing Sea/Aleutians back on Oct 22nd-25th....interestingly, both the GEFS/EPS have trended markedly colder/stormier during the Week 2 period.  Let's see how it evolves. 

Yeah, im not buying the boring stretches we keep seeing advertised on the models. After a brief reshuffle. I think we're in for 5-7 weeks of old school hard winter.

[OKwx2k4]

3 minutes ago, Niko said:

Did ya get any ice or snow. I saw that it got pretty wild down there w all sorts of advisories.

Not a bit. In later cycles, this will either be the most destructive ice storm in 10 years or a monster snowstorm. OKC and points west had a lot of stuff going on and still have a few rounds to go.

Oklahoma weather in a nutshell... something for everyone. Probably hit my high for the day of 41°. That's a cold rainy day in October.

[jaster220]

14 minutes ago, Niko said:

Currently 37F w rain. Very chilly day. Running a good 20 degrees BN. Did not get outta the 30s for highs today, wow!

Jaster, are ya seeing any snowflakes mixing in.......don't be surprised if ya do.

B4 work I did not. At least nothing that was for certain frozen anything.

[snowstorm83]

2 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

I have now seen more snow this October than I saw in my first full Winter in Lincoln.

Yeah I'm glad that was before I came here. That's about as bottom of the barrel as it gets. Theres probably only been 2 or 3 winters in history without a 2"+ snow and that's one of them. 

[OKwx2k4]

7 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

I have now seen more snow this October than I saw in my first full Winter in Lincoln.

Congratulations. In terms of enduring futility as a snowy weather fanatic "from the North", you deserve to get to enjoy it.

The terms "OmaDome" and "OklaDoma" will be etched in my memory forever. Lol.

[OKwx2k4]

I'm anxious to skip the next 36 hours of model runs. Going to get fun again in 36-48 more hours. I'm almost certain. This pattern has worked 3 times and I bailed on it last time the day the models flipped back.

The tropics dominate the modeling when they are active. Gotta wait on the pattern to "clear the deck" and the modeling can reset. 

This 2" of rain isn't all that comes after this current event and we (all should) know that.

[Tom]

Fired up a November thread...should be a volatile month of weather...

https://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/5426-november-2020-observations-and-discussion/

[Tom]

It's the coldest morning of the season for my back yard with a current temp of 31F and my 1st freeze.  Officially, ORD has yet to record the first freeze but we are getting close today as the current temp is 33F at ORD.

 

Edit: ORD just hit 32F

 

[Clinton]

Big rains in the Ozarks the next 2 days.  Looking like a .5-1' here as big storm lifts out.

[westMJim]

I recorded 0.14" of rain fall yesterday. There was no snow was seen here but it was a cold rain. The over night low here was 31 and there is a lot of frost on the roof tops this morning.

[Niko]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Big rains in the Ozarks the next 2 days.  Looking like a .5-1' here as big storm lifts out.

Yes sir....looks like Billy and Zeta will get together to combine a big storm. Too bad it makes that sharp right turn and misses SEMI.

[Niko]

Currently at 46F under sunny skies. It gets colder on Friday w highs barely in the low 40s and lows in the low to mid 20s. I would not be surprised, if some spots hit the teens.

[Clinton]

30 minutes ago, Niko said:

Yes sir....looks like Billy and Zeta will get together to combine a big storm. Too bad it makes that sharp right turn and misses SEMI.

I agree, I would like to see just keep moving NE.

[Stormy]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

It's the coldest morning of the season for my back yard with a current temp of 31F and my 1st freeze.  Officially, ORD has yet to record the first freeze but we are getting close today as the current temp is 33F at ORD.

 

Edit: ORD just hit 32F

 

Also the coldest so far here with a low of 24°. 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Sparky said:

Also the coldest so far here with a low of 24°. 

Expected the same here with 29F in my grid, but even with clear skies never even approached freezing. Looks like 34 or 35F was it! Was sure we'd bust low NOT high this morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like Bartlesville, OK topped out at 34 yesterday. Their records go back to about 1920 and that was the 2nd coldest October max on record. Today could be their 5th straight record min max. 

[Minny_Weather]

Most of the snow here is gone except in shaded areas. I've had scattered rain showers all day with sun breaks. 39.6°F.

[CentralNebWeather]

7 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Most of the snow here is gone except in shaded areas. I've had scattered rain showers all day with sun breaks. 39.6°F.

How odd, we have more snow than you.  Fairly big piles and several inches still on the shaded side of buildings.  Cloudy weather today has helped to keep more around.  Temp though has jump to the low 50's so snow should be gone by the weekend.

[Minny_Weather]

3 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

How odd, we have more snow than you.  Fairly big piles and several inches still on the shaded side of buildings.  Cloudy weather today has helped to keep more around.  Temp though has jump to the low 50's so snow should be gone by the weekend.

The sun was out at solar noon here which absolutely nuked it. It's still patchy in exposed areas and completely covering the ground in shaded areas, but this is the beginning of the end.

[CentralNebWeather]

7 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

The sun was out at solar noon here which absolutely nuked it. It's still patchy in exposed areas and completely covering the ground in shaded areas, but this is the beginning of the end.

That's too bad.  Hopefully the pattern comes back in the next 10-14 days.

[Tom]

October will go down in the record books for many reasons, but what is intriguing to me, is the tweet from Judah Cohen which suggests this is the MOST expansive snow cover extent for North America so early in the season.  #SolarMin  #2020

 

Quote

I find the North American #snow cover extent (SCE) remarkable. It is at least a month ahead of schedule/normal and is so far outside the envelope of what precedent suggested was possible. It's even comparable to midwinter SCE during low years. Talk about moving the goal posts.