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October 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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A solid 25F low overnight and was in the 20s about 7 hrs total so inching our way towards a possible winter setting as we head into Novemberrr

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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44 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

A solid 25F low overnight and was in the 20s about 7 hrs total so inching our way towards a possible winter setting as we head into Novemberrr

Yes sir..get ready. "Tis The Season."

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Potential ETA:

https://wordpress.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/page-1-85.jpg?w=632

The next tropical storm to develop in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season will be given the name Eta, which is the next letter in the Greek alphabet. Should the Caribbean feature reach tropical-storm force, it will become the 28th named storm of the season.

Note: This has been an amazing tropical season. A myriad of storms.

 

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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55 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

29 years ago today, we were in the midst of one of the worst blizzards in Nebraska history. Halloween was postponed a week. Memories. 

Got maps/links/stories to go along with??

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Here we go.....Headline out!

Jaster, ya ready?!

NOAA:

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
430 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020

MIZ049-054-063-070-076-083-012030-
Huron-Tuscola-St. Clair-Macomb-Wayne-Monroe-
430 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Michigan.

A Lakeshore Flood Advisory is in effect tonight for the Lake Erie and
Lake St Clair shoreline. Please see the latest Lakeshore Hazard
message for details.
Numerous snow showers are expected Sunday into Sunday evening, along
with west-northwest wind gusts of 40 to 45 mph. Snowfall
accumulations of a dusting to 1 inch are expected.

 

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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 October 2020 at Grand Rapids had a mean temperature of 47.8 that was a departure of -3.2. The high for the month was 79 on the 9th and the low was 25 on the 31st there was a trace of reported snow fall. This was the coldest October since 2006. At Muskegon they had a mean of 49.9 that was a departure there of -0.8 the highest was 75 on the 9th and the low was 29 on the 31st. and they also reported a trace of snow fall. At Holland they had a mean of 47.9 and that was good for a departure of 3.7. The highest at Holland in October was 77 on the 9th and the low was 29 on the 31st. And to the east at Lansing the mean there was 47.5 for a departure of -2.8 the highest there was 78 on the 9th and the low was 25 on the 31st There was no snow fall reported at Lansing in October. 

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On 10/28/2020 at 3:45 PM, Tom said:

October will go down in the record books for many reasons, but what is intriguing to me, is the tweet from Judah Cohen which suggests this is the MOST expansive snow cover extent for North America so early in the season.  #SolarMin  #2020

 

../plots/daily_snow_extent/multisensor_4km_na_snow_extent_by_year_graph.png

I never saw this post until now, Tom; but I'd argue without him (Mr. Cohen) knowing what I said, nor I what he said, he wrote the words I did almost. There was not a "bar" or a precedent for what just happened down here either. 

Where do you start? I just saw a record (very likely more than one, of course) fall that had been standing for a hundred. Years. A century. Not by a shade or a degree or two but 14 degrees.

I probably just experienced the lowest 5 day mean temp and longest October storm I have probably ever experienced in my life and we're at naming hurricanes hieroglyphs or something at this point. (Lol) They're on number 5 just in Louisiana alone at this writing. 

Just taking all this in is pretty astounding if you think about it.

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5 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I never saw this post until now, Tom; but I'd argue without him (Mr. Cohen) knowing what I said, nor I what he said, he wrote the words I did almost. There was not a "bar" or a precedent for what just happened down here either. 

Where do you start? I just saw a record (very likely more than one, of course) fall that had been standing for a hundred. Years. A century. Not by a shade or a degree or two but 14 degrees.

I probably just experienced the lowest 5 day mean temp and longest October storm I have probably ever experienced in my life and we're at naming hurricanes hieroglyphs or something at this point. (Lol) They're on number 5 just in Louisiana alone at this writing. 

Just taking all this in is pretty astounding if you think about it.

Adding....

I'd say that OKC just endured it's most devastating October ice storm on record except that there was a problem. Ice storms do not happen in OKC in October.

It would be amazing. Shattering records. There wasn't one there to break, that's amazing. Its never happened before.. I never thought I would ever see something like that.

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On 10/28/2020 at 4:45 PM, Tom said:

October will go down in the record books for many reasons, but what is intriguing to me, is the tweet from Judah Cohen which suggests this is the MOST expansive snow cover extent for North America so early in the season.  #SolarMin  #2020

 

../plots/daily_snow_extent/multisensor_4km_na_snow_extent_by_year_graph.png

 

9 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I never saw this post until now, Tom; but I'd argue without him (Mr. Cohen) knowing what I said, nor I what he said, he wrote the words I did almost. There was not a "bar" or a precedent for what just happened down here either. 

Where do you start? I just saw a record (very likely more than one, of course) fall that had been standing for a hundred. Years. A century. Not by a shade or a degree or two but 14 degrees.

I probably just experienced the lowest 5 day mean temp and longest October storm I have probably ever experienced in my life and we're at naming hurricanes hieroglyphs or something at this point. (Lol) They're on number 5 just in Louisiana alone at this writing. 

Just taking all this in is pretty astounding if you think about it.

Was watching "Gav's winter forecast update" out of the UK, not because I'm particularly impressed by this guy's acumen, nor his nasally tone. He does however look at every Eurasian snow cover map all the way back to 1967 for comparison of current conditions (10/23/20). I saw the 10/23/76 record snow cover map and all the record amounts back then were on the other side of the globe, NOT over here. That's a major difference imho, tho I can't say to what effects on our incoming winter. Several notoriously cold winters had a similar Eurasian/Scandinavian cover on that date. Notably '95, '02, '78. Prolly the closest in recent past was 2012. But, again he's focusing on that side for the benefit of what Europe's and the UK's winter might be shaping up like. I was trying my best to watch NAMER side as he compared that side. 2013 was not that impressive in the 3rd week of October fwiw.  

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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22 hours ago, jaster220 said:

 

Was watching "Gav's winter forecast update" out of the UK, not because I'm particularly impressed by this guy's acumen, nor his nasally tone. He does however look at every Eurasian snow cover map all the way back to 1967 for comparison of current conditions (10/23/20). I saw the 10/23/76 record snow cover map and all the record amounts back then were on the other side of the globe, NOT over here. That's a major difference imho, tho I can't say to what effects on our incoming winter. Several notoriously cold winters had a similar Eurasian/Scandinavian cover on that date. Notably '95, '02, '78. Prolly the closest in recent past was 2012. But, again he's focusing on that side for the benefit of what Europe's and the UK's winter might be shaping up like. I was trying my best to watch NAMER side as he compared that side. 2013 was not that impressive in the 3rd week of October fwiw.  

I'd have to reference some of the European weather history i know, which isn't very much, to get a mental picture of what the Nhem patterns would have done on their side of the globe. Lot of variance to take into account as well. (I think from 74 up through mid or late 80s Russia was in the icebox) Were the AO splits the "4 lobe" split or the full "polar vortex of 2013 hysteria" kind with 2 large clean lobes. Where were all of the other quasi-stationary tropical features cyclical blocks and ridges, etc...? Technically we were exiting a cold period of history through the 70s and the cold was stacked on the other side of the globe during and after. Wonder if it really is as simple as flipping it.

Wonder if this is why, even though I do agree with much of the science behind the AER, SAI, cyclical weather harmonic theorems (because all have produced great, yet imperfect evidence) it struggles in years like the last 3. I think it's defects are in that it doesn't work in times of cyclical variance (ie:long term climactic shifts), and maybe during periods where the pacific tropics are the #1 variable at play and they blow every other high latitude ocean/atmosphere temperature coupled driver at play completely out of the water.

Lots of random thoughts about that but good post. 

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