Tom Posted September 26, 2020 Report Share Posted September 26, 2020 As we wrap up the month of September early next week, we will enter one of the more important months of Autumn that provides us clues what mother nature will have in store as we get deeper into the colder season. Some major changes in our wx pattern are dialing up as we open up a brand new month. Significant high lat blocking seemingly develops right at the start of the month as the new LRC develops, first, way up north in the high lats (good sign) and then trickles down into the mid-latitudes about a week later. What are the models showing??? Let's discuss.... The clues I saw long ago were beginning to present themselves about 10 days ago when I saw the warming developing across Greenland and the northern tier of North America at the 10mb/30mb Strat level. Low and behold, all the models are jumping on the -AO/-NAO pattern. Take a look at the animations below and its really encouraging to me to see that literally ALL the warming ongoing is happening smack dab over North America! It's fascinating to me that as the new LRC develops it is almost like clock work that the atmosphere "snaps" into a new pattern. The CFSv2 has been holding steadfast on the idea of a western US Ridge (+PNA) and eastern CONUS trough-like pattern. Remarkably, this is quite a different pattern we have seen for the month of October in what seems like ages to me. CFSv2 temp/precip trends... On the topic of High Lat Blocking, every single model is picking up on a massive and long lasting Scandinavian/NW Russia Block across the Pole on the other side of the Northern Hemisphere. If this is a pattern that cycles through and one of the LRC's exhibits where ridges will develop in the cold season, look out! Lastly, what about the Snow??? Nature is laying down the foundation way up north, as the sun has set this past week in that part of the world. Ol' Man Winter has arrived and has been awakened. While each run may be different, lately, the CFS has been sniffing out a dramatic expansion of snow cover over Canada next month (Euro Weeklies agree) and quite possibly a big cool down for the lower 48 towards the end of the month. Happy Halloween! North America snow cover extent is trending in the middle of the pack over the last decade... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 26, 2020 Report Share Posted September 26, 2020 That snowcover map for Halloween is impressive. Not that I'm expecting it to verify but that is a heck of a nice looking trend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 26, 2020 47 minutes ago, james1976 said: That snowcover map for Halloween is impressive. Not that I'm expecting it to verify but that is a heck of a nice looking trend. Ya, I don't necessarily take it verbatim, but the Euro weeklies were also showing a strong CF towards the end of the month and if you utilize the BSR for any LR prediction, it would fit also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 26, 2020 Report Share Posted September 26, 2020 I agree with Tom. The stage is being set, based on numerous rules, for an impressive display of weather in the central CONUS in both early and late Oct. The pattern of heat up there will end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 27, 2020 Report Share Posted September 27, 2020 9 hours ago, james1976 said: That snowcover map for Halloween is impressive. Not that I'm expecting it to verify but that is a heck of a nice looking trend. Yep, those LR snow maps are the new "clown maps" of our era but you don't need to look any further than last Halloween to find a real snow swath thru the Midwest. Sooo... 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted September 27, 2020 Report Share Posted September 27, 2020 I'm not enthused about a bone-dry October. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 27, 2020 Report Share Posted September 27, 2020 LOL @ GFS showing a snow swath across N. IL for 5-Oct. Anyone in a betting mood? 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 27, 2020 Some LR thoughts on this beautiful Sunday morning...I'm paying close attention to the wx pattern thousands of miles to our NW, near the Gulf of Alaska, where today a powerful and rare early season storm system is poised to thrash the SE coast of Alaska with Hurricane Force winds. My brother and his family have a cabin near the Kena coast where they had some great Salmon and Halibut fishing last month. Over the next week, this part of the North American continent is going to get lambasted by 4 storm systems in a week long barrage. Quote Hurricane Force Wind Warning Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska 321 PM AKDT Sat Sep 26 2020 Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet. Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ120-271245- Cape Cleare to Gore Point- 321 PM AKDT Sat Sep 26 2020 ...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 45 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft building to 13 ft after midnight. Rain. .SUN...NE wind 65 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 23 ft. Rain. .SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. Seas 20 ft. .MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. .MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. .TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. .WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. .THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Take a look at the 00z GEFS animation below... Why is this important??? Well, the track to which these storms are taking is critical to our wx pattern downstream as this pumps the ridge up along the western NAMER coastline in the near term. Last year, I remember these storms plowing east into western NAMER, thus pumping a huge EC ridge and very different compared to last year. Now, this is where I think the pattern may be heading towards Week 3-4 of October. The track to which these storm systems are taking suggest to me that we will see a lot of systems tracking up from the south (potential GOM systems) and ride up the App's or EC. Unfortunately, this means those members in our western Sub may not benefit from this pattern come Week 3. We'll see but if the PNA relaxes to more neutral by then it may allow a farther western storm track through the MW/GL's during this period. I'm thinking there will be a very active period by Week 3 and a persistent Long Term - Long Wave trough across eastern North America. This could be the chilly pattern both the Euro Weeklies and CFS model are seeing towards the later part of the month. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 27, 2020 Report Share Posted September 27, 2020 Northwest flow 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 27, 2020 Report Share Posted September 27, 2020 5 hours ago, Tom said: Some LR thoughts on this beautiful Sunday morning...I'm paying close attention to the wx pattern thousands of miles to our NW, near the Gulf of Alaska, where today a powerful and rare early season storm system is poised to thrash the SE coast of Alaska with Hurricane Force winds. My brother and his family have a cabin near the Kena coast where they had some great Salmon and Halibut fishing last month. Over the next week, this part of the North American continent is going to get lambasted by 4 storm systems in a week long barrage. Take a look at the 00z GEFS animation below... Why is this important??? Well, the track to which these storms are taking is critical to our wx pattern downstream as this pumps the ridge up along the western NAMER coastline in the near term. Last year, I remember these storms plowing east into western NAMER, thus pumping a huge EC ridge and very different compared to last year. Now, this is where I think the pattern may be heading towards Week 3-4 of October. The track to which these storm systems are taking suggest to me that we will see a lot of systems tracking up from the south (potential GOM systems) and ride up the App's or EC. Unfortunately, this means those members in our western Sub may not benefit from this pattern come Week 3. We'll see but if the PNA relaxes to more neutral by then it may allow a farther western storm track through the MW/GL's during this period. I'm thinking there will be a very active period by Week 3 and a persistent Long Term - Long Wave trough across eastern North America. This could be the chilly pattern both the Euro Weeklies and CFS model are seeing towards the later part of the month. Some of those systems verbatim would indeed get far enough west to "hit the Mitt" (see hot zone map attached) Great stuff Tom - thx 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 27, 2020 Report Share Posted September 27, 2020 Man, if the GFS is not really as progressive or warm, as its future indicates, the block over the SW and PNW won't migrate east. There's nothing to really cut down this semi-permanent feature. Only approach that could reestablish it any farther east is if a storm undercuts it. We're really in for the long haul here. The BSR carries it (the cold onslaught) longer than even I'm brave enough to go at this point. Like Tom also said, its 4 distinctive storms or cold waves likely coming at this point, at the minimum. Buckle up. October will be charging in shortly... If it goes the distance, it will be pretty radical. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 28, 2020 Report Share Posted September 28, 2020 2 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said: Man, if the GFS is not really as progressive or warm, as its future indicates, the block over the SW and PNW won't migrate east. There's nothing to really cut down this semi-permanent feature. Only approach that could reestablish it any farther east is if a storm undercuts it. We're really in for the long haul here. The BSR carries it (the cold onslaught) longer than even I'm brave enough to go at this point. Like Tom also said, its 4 distinctive storms or cold waves likely coming at this point, at the minimum. Buckle up. October will be charging in shortly... If it goes the distance, it will be pretty radical. Talk about flipping a pattern switch! Overnight we go from endless summer sunshine and benign repeat to active, active, active. Things that are in my AFD for this week: Up to 1" rain, classic autumn stratiform type Brisk north winds High temps 10-15F below normal Cold core thunder Likely waterspouts Lows in the 30s Possible frost 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 28, 2020 8 hours ago, jaster220 said: Talk about flipping a pattern switch! Overnight we go from endless summer sunshine and benign repeat to active, active, active. Things that are in my AFD for this week: Up to 1" rain, classic autumn stratiform type Brisk north winds High temps 10-15F below normal Cold core thunder Likely waterspouts Lows in the 30s Possible frost #RealAutumn....has arrived! It's going to be a busy week around these parts as I see a couple more good chances of precip besides today's stratiform/post-frontal rain event. A rotating piece of energy around the backside of the monster trough in SE Canada looks to bring a wave through on Wed/Thu along with LE rain showers. The clipper type system showing up over the weekend is interesting to say the very least. Very amped up pattern around here which is a great sign...finally... 00z Euro the wetter of the bunch through this weekend... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 28, 2020 Report Share Posted September 28, 2020 Northwest flow 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 28, 2020 Report Share Posted September 28, 2020 Constant highs in the mid-60s near 70 some days with a Northwest wind and full sun are totes awesome, yo. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted September 28, 2020 Report Share Posted September 28, 2020 The GFS and Euro no longer have any freezing temps around here this weekend into next week. The Euro had always been warmer than the GFS, but now it doesn't even get the temp below 40º. The GFS had a freeze across the area on several runs, but now it only gets us down to the mid 30s one morning, with 40+º every other morning. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 28, 2020 Report Share Posted September 28, 2020 20 hours ago, jaster220 said: Talk about flipping a pattern switch! Overnight we go from endless summer sunshine and benign repeat to active, active, active. Things that are in my AFD for this week: Up to 1" rain, classic autumn stratiform type Brisk north winds High temps 10-15F below normal Cold core thunder Likely waterspouts Lows in the 30s Possible frost Nice!! Happy real Autumn!! Bringing it in with a bang! It literally hits every "classic" thing right on the button if you love this season. Gotta see what the models keep trying to do with the PNW ridge. I just can't see it doing what 12z had it doing and migrating east over the plains. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 28, 2020 Report Share Posted September 28, 2020 33 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said: Nice!! Happy real Autumn!! Bringing it in with a bang! It literally hits every "classic" thing right on the button if you love this season. Gotta see what the models keep trying to do with the PNW ridge. I just can't see it doing what 12z had it doing and migrating east over the plains. Des Moines NWS this morning was leaning towards AN for October Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 28, 2020 Report Share Posted September 28, 2020 2 hours ago, Hawkeye said: The GFS and Euro no longer have any freezing temps around here this weekend into next week. The Euro had always been warmer than the GFS, but now it doesn't even get the temp below 40º. The GFS had a freeze across the area on several runs, but now it only gets us down to the mid 30s one morning, with 40+º every other morning. Des Moines NWS still talking frost: The potential for frost/freeze conditions is also increasing for Thursday night and Friday night. Still some questions on when and how much winds will decouple, along with mid/high level cloud cover. Have kept the forecast lows in the 30s - and have included patchy/areas of frost in the forecast. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 29, 2020 Report Share Posted September 29, 2020 1 hour ago, james1976 said: Des Moines NWS this morning was leaning towards AN for October Well, so much for that. Lol. Hopefully not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 29, 2020 Report Share Posted September 29, 2020 Looks like 70s (above normal) return for me next week. Until then it looks cool with frost potential Thursday night and showers this weekend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 29, 2020 Report Share Posted September 29, 2020 On 9/26/2020 at 10:35 PM, Hawkeye said: I'm not enthused about a bone-dry October. My extended for October does not even show a drop of water from the sky. "Bonedry." 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 29, 2020 Report Share Posted September 29, 2020 On 9/27/2020 at 10:30 PM, jaster220 said: Talk about flipping a pattern switch! Overnight we go from endless summer sunshine and benign repeat to active, active, active. Things that are in my AFD for this week: Up to 1" rain, classic autumn stratiform type Brisk north winds High temps 10-15F below normal Cold core thunder Likely waterspouts Lows in the 30s Possible frost Wow...looks crazy!!! 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 29, 2020 Report Share Posted September 29, 2020 The end of GFS is still wrong. It disagrees with its own AO trend. Those of you who are in drought, or starting a drought, this is bad news. If October is showing rainfall to your east in longer ranges, I'd retrograde that west in my mind when thinking futuristically. I guess I'm making my formal disagreement that east of the rockies will be "normal" or above in temps throughout at least October. Folks uo north need to get harvest done at the first opportunity. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 29, 2020 Report Share Posted September 29, 2020 Mid-October looks very very boring. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 30, 2020 Report Share Posted September 30, 2020 1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said: Mid-October looks very very boring. Hoping so. I am looking for perfect Indian Summer conditions to enjoy before too cold gets here. Nov of 2010 was great around here as an example. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 30, 2020 Report Share Posted September 30, 2020 Right now CPC's maps show a normal to BN first half around here temps wise with normal precip. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 30, 2020 Report Share Posted September 30, 2020 5 hours ago, FAR_Weather said: Mid-October looks very very boring. I'd rather have boring weather now and save the action for later down the road. As a matter a fact, I'd preferred it stays boring till mid November, or so and then, have Snow N Cold arrive last week of the month. That should bold well for December and hopefully the rest of the Winter months. N btw: I could use "Indian Summer" in October. It helps w outdoor cleaning and preparing for the Winter months. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 30, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 30, 2020 The Mitt is going to be on fire over the next few days...high rez models picking up on some real heavy Lake Effect rain showers..possibly thunder??? Why not open up October with some LES up in the U.P.???? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 30, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 30, 2020 After analyzing model data, I'm still trying to figure out if the clipper sliding down this weekend is part of the new LRC or a mix of both the old/new pattern. It's fairly evident that the blocking evolving across the Arctic right now is certainly much different than last year. The placement of all the block across the Northern Hemisphere are rather interesting to me. I'm pretty certain that we will be seeing influences of these blocks over the coming cold season. Every year about this time, I try my best to figure out Day 1 of the new LRC and I'm beginning to see some clues from the models in the extended. I've been looking to see if there would be a system developing over the central Plains around the 6th or so using the Bearing Sea Rule. Prior to that system, however, I was expecting a northern tier system to track across the Sub during the opening days of this month. The clipper this coming weekend may be just that storm. Before I dive into what I believe may be the first days of the new LRC, October 1st opens up an entire new pattern way up north and by the looks of this hemispheric 500mb pattern, it's a pretty picture if your a wx enthusiast like myself who seeks optimistic signs for the cold season ahead. The 00z GEFS animation below is showing everything we did not have in previous Octobers that opened up the month with a stout SER and/or western trough along with the high lat blocking near Scandinavia/Greenland/North Pole. The displacement of the "North American Vortex" is about as pretty as it gets. Can you just imagine what that will look like in December??? The blocking this Autumn season is eye candy to say the least. Storm systems that do develop, IMO, will become energized as a result of this blocking. Keeping all of this in mind, when will we see our first legit storm of the new LRC season??? IMO, I think its going to develop between the 9th-12th and there will be a GOM connection. The 00z EPS is jumping on it and not only that, but there will be a E PAC connection as well. Take a look at the 06z GFS 500mb vorticity map below and there is a storm spinning in the E PAC, remnants of Marie in the Tropical PAC, that will become influenced by the northern stream jet driving into the western North American coast. Blessings coming for northern Cali??? Nature may be finally delivering some much needed rainfall into the fire stricken regions of the west. This system then merges into the upper level steering pattern and we begin the journey setting up the new 2020-2021 LRC. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 30, 2020 Report Share Posted September 30, 2020 7 hours ago, Tom said: The Mitt is going to be on fire over the next few days...high rez models picking up on some real heavy Lake Effect rain showers..possibly thunder??? BOOM! Won't be long now if this pattern remains the dominant one heading thru autumn. Quote -- Frost or freeze potential Thu night and Fri night -- Thursday night has that look of winter-style NNW-flow lake effect (rain this time) west of US-131 and subsidence/clearing over mid- southern parts of the state. With even colder air still advecting in, should be a pretty chilly and perhaps frosty night in inland locations. Friday night looks to be the coldest night, as the surface winds will be calmer in the midst of the surface high, though the cold could be partially mitigated by some mid and high clouds. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 30, 2020 Report Share Posted September 30, 2020 @ Tom To follow-up on your comment wrt "energized system" in this pattern. This is very 07-08 Quote -- Rain likely Sunday -- The persistence of the western North American ridge and the Hudson Bay / Great Lakes trough, and another shortwave and jet streak digging into the central CONUS between the two, may lead to cyclogenesis over our region on Sunday. There is majority European ensemble support for rain on Sunday as a result. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 1, 2020 Report Share Posted October 1, 2020 Not sure if MI peeps are aware, but, all of MI state broke a record for coldest "Mid Level Temperatures." Temps at 6000' were 0 to -10F, while at ground level, they were in the 50s. Never occurred this early in the season being that frigid. As a matter of fact, the showers and t'stms that some of us had earlier today were fueled by very cold air aloft, which, of course was record setting. 2 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 1, 2020 Report Share Posted October 1, 2020 Tonight is plenty chilly by September stds. Yet even colder conditions are on deck to open the new month. Wrt this event, just like with LES, those regions that are close to the lake are/will get the brunt of it, while further inland, especially way inland like mby won't get anywhere near the map totals Tom posted. I believe quite a chunk of that should've been from the initial SLP that was riding the CF. Unfortunately, as is typical with those "waves" pulsing, we missed the pulses NW and SE resulting in very little qpf right thru SCMI. GRR Quote Showers should increase/perk up again however toward morning along the lakeshore where sfc troughing/convergence is expected to set up. Also much colder H8 air near 1C will be arriving, adding lake enhancement. HREF guidance is suggesting that quite a bit of rain is possible Thursday morning /12Z-18Z/ in the traditional NW flow lake effect area/zone south and west of GRR, with a QPF bullseye over an inch in parts of Ottawa, Allegan and Van Buren Counties during that time. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 1, 2020 Report Share Posted October 1, 2020 Attm, its 48F under partly cloudy skies. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 1, 2020 Report Share Posted October 1, 2020 1 minute ago, Niko said: Not sure if MI peeps are aware, but, all of MI state broke a record for coldest "Mid Level Temperatures." Temps at 6000' were 0 to -10F, while at ground level, they were in the 50s. Never occurred this early in the season being that frigid. Wow! where did you get that story? Kinda explains all my comments on how this feels more like Novemberrr Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 1, 2020 Report Share Posted October 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Wow! where did you get that story? Kinda explains all my comments on how this feels more like Novemberrr My local forecaster said it. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 1, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 1, 2020 16 hours ago, jaster220 said: @ Tom To follow-up on your comment wrt "energized system" in this pattern. This is very 07-08 I like where things are heading around these parts even though models sorta backed off on the intensity of the "clipper" this weekend. Interestingly, the models have trended colder for my area Mon morning post clipper. Needless to say, it's going to be the coldest autumn weekend here and perfect wx on Sunday to stay indoors and watch some football and cook some good food! 00z Euro showing low/mid 30's for many on here Monday morning...First Frost for Chicago area??? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 1, 2020 Report Share Posted October 1, 2020 Could get frosty tonight. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 1, 2020 Report Share Posted October 1, 2020 On 9/30/2020 at 6:16 AM, Tom said: After analyzing model data, I'm still trying to figure out if the clipper sliding down this weekend is part of the new LRC or a mix of both the old/new pattern. It's fairly evident that the blocking evolving across the Arctic right now is certainly much different than last year. The placement of all the block across the Northern Hemisphere are rather interesting to me. I'm pretty certain that we will be seeing influences of these blocks over the coming cold season. Every year about this time, I try my best to figure out Day 1 of the new LRC and I'm beginning to see some clues from the models in the extended. I've been looking to see if there would be a system developing over the central Plains around the 6th or so using the Bearing Sea Rule. Prior to that system, however, I was expecting a northern tier system to track across the Sub during the opening days of this month. The clipper this coming weekend may be just that storm. Before I dive into what I believe may be the first days of the new LRC, October 1st opens up an entire new pattern way up north and by the looks of this hemispheric 500mb pattern, it's a pretty picture if your a wx enthusiast like myself who seeks optimistic signs for the cold season ahead. The 00z GEFS animation below is showing everything we did not have in previous Octobers that opened up the month with a stout SER and/or western trough along with the high lat blocking near Scandinavia/Greenland/North Pole. The displacement of the "North American Vortex" is about as pretty as it gets. Can you just imagine what that will look like in December??? The blocking this Autumn season is eye candy to say the least. Storm systems that do develop, IMO, will become energized as a result of this blocking. Keeping all of this in mind, when will we see our first legit storm of the new LRC season??? IMO, I think its going to develop between the 9th-12th and there will be a GOM connection. The 00z EPS is jumping on it and not only that, but there will be a E PAC connection as well. Take a look at the 06z GFS 500mb vorticity map below and there is a storm spinning in the E PAC, remnants of Marie in the Tropical PAC, that will become influenced by the northern stream jet driving into the western North American coast. Blessings coming for northern Cali??? Nature may be finally delivering some much needed rainfall into the fire stricken regions of the west. This system then merges into the upper level steering pattern and we begin the journey setting up the new 2020-2021 LRC. I I'm liking the trend with the GFS this morning for week 2 and 3 of Oct and as we start a new LRC. Hope that big storm in the plains can verify! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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