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October 2020 Observations and Discussion


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Taken at 12:30PM, on the south side of Ankeny Iowa.  At least 6" on the ground.

First flakes of the season falling onto Lincoln. It’s light and wet, but it’s snow. 

First flakes of the season here in St. Paul today. It came down pretty heavy for 5-10 minutes this morning. .2” officially at the airport. 

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Lol, Euro gives me a foot from the Thursday clipper. If only.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (3.3"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 3.9"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Tbh, I'll take a La Nina Winter pattern in a heart beat, but I feel that there is always a catch w this. As we all know, this type of weather pattern that occurs during a Winter season is (or, mostly is) volatile, which can also be annoying to most of us, just when the fun is happening. Either way, I'll sign and accept it, whether it pivots or not.

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Just did a significant user prune. Wiped out 4k accounts from the past 6 years that were spammers or just inactive with weird emails, like "axjio43@bigdaddysuggestivereferences.org". If you're reading this and can't log into your account or have a friend that can't log in, just register again and send me a DM.

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18 minutes ago, iFred said:

Just did a significant user prune. Wiped out 4k accounts from the past 6 years that were spammers or just inactive with weird emails, like "axjio43@bigdaddysuggestivereferences.org". If you're reading this and can't log into your account or have a friend that can't log in, just register again and send me a DM.

Awesome! I do this also on my PC's. Accuracy is fantastic as well as size reduction.

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On 10/16/2020 at 7:31 AM, Hawkeye said:

It appears we hovered in the mid 30s all night and did not freeze, but I did just see the first snow flurries of the season.

I know this is late, but I had my first 32° low yesterday morning. Didn’t notice any frost though a few things got nipped a little. 
 

I didn’t notice any flakes, but parts of our community had a few sleet or hail balls in the afternoon 

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FGF is basically saying "I'll let the night guy handle it" to the Thursday clipper, lol.

They're saying that Tuesday's clipper will likely be limited to 2" in the lower elevations, which I actually agree with. The fact that the entire event will be during the day doesn't help.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (3.3"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 3.9"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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A bit of rain might be mixed with some wet snow flakes (not likely) tomorrow morning, but I’m more looking forward to the bigger system later next week. Hopefully we can get an inch of rain and some thunder which has really been lacking this fall. I like the Euro the best for heavy rainfall  at this time. The Icon now is pretty good too and also the Ukie, but the Ukie often shows those weird unrealistic patterns with rainfall.

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Hardier trees are dropping half-turned leafs after the past 2 nights below freezing. Across the countryside, there are still pockets of good to great color, and some where it's obviously past the colorful stage.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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00z GFS at the end of the month.

gfs_T2m_ncus_39.png

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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5 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

00z GFS at the end of the month.

gfs_T2m_ncus_39.png

THAT is a PV shift. 

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (3.3"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 3.9"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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11 hours ago, Jaycee said:

Last day before the leaves officially fell. These were taken in Winnetka, about 3 minutes away from the home alone house. It’s so incredibly pretty there! 

DD51297F-B885-4FF4-83CF-AB76C3D6130F.jpeg

AD7ED3F0-2C99-4246-BD87-474380F59025.jpeg

1660FB9D-08C6-4B67-98E4-F7539232C9B6.jpeg

I think of that movie every year around this time of year and at Christmas.

Thank you for sharing those!

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Ever since the Hudson Bay Vortex got established last week around the 13th, I counted at least 3 or 4 formidable waves/systems that have, or will have, tracked from the PAC NW/B.C. region across the northern half of the Sub Forum by this coming Fri.  This is quite the active and exciting pattern to begin analyzing the new LRC.  I can't wait to see what this will deliver in future cycles.  

With that being said, the next robust wave to target the Upper MW on Tue/Wed is looking to drop advisory level snows across MN and parts of NW WI according to the 00z Euro...

1.png

 

00z Ukie...

 

sn10_acc.us_nc.png

 

00z GFS...

 

snku_acc.us_nc.png

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The following weekend is certainly trending towards our first potential widespread winter storm of the season.  Except for those up north (esp @Fargo), many peeps across the central part of the Sub may be witnessing their 1st accumulating snowfall of the season.  Quite the setup is being advertised with a monstrous Canadian Arctic HP driving south, tanking -EPO, energy coming out of the central Rockies into the Plains states, GOM connection....we may have ourselves a large winter storm next weekend.

00z EPS by months end illustrating the potential aftermath of what's coming...woah, it's like nature wants to fast-forward 1 month...plus...not to mention, the cold that is on the table is almost unheard of at this time of year...@Hawkeye posted what the GFS is showing and the Euro is agreeing that lows may dip into the single digits, possibly sub zero across the UpperMW/Plains where there is snow OTG.

1.png

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Pounding at DSM airport!! .3 to .4 on snowboards ,, probably can muster a wet inch before sunrise.

PXL_20201018_095605112.jpg

PXL_20201018_095623716.jpg

Awesome!  I was tracking the radar and noticed the snow returns and thought of you actually...congrats!

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

Finally, some good opportunities for widespread precip heading into the heartland this coming week...I'd take a nice soaking this week to kick start this wetter pattern.

 

1.png

Looking forward to the good soaking, especially after mowing pastures yesterday.  We need it, the Dec version of this could be really fun!

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

The following weekend is certainly trending towards our first potential widespread winter storm of the season.  Except for those up north (esp @Fargo), many peeps across the central part of the Sub may be witnessing their 1st accumulating snowfall of the season.  Quite the setup is being advertised with a monstrous Canadian Arctic HP driving south, tanking -EPO, energy coming out of the central Rockies into the Plains states, GOM connection....we may have ourselves a large winter storm next weekend.

I've gotten accumulations but it's just been dustings so far. Let's get a few inches!

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (3.3"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 3.9"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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2 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said:

Took a break from social media and most things internet for a few months. Looking forward to some potential early season snows and storm tracking. Hope everyone has been well! 

Welcome back! I’ve been sick at least once this past summer, but nothing serious.

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Currently getting returns over here, but none of it is reaching the ground. 28.4*F.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (3.3"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 3.9"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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6 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

The consensus is for at least some sort of ridiculous weather for the close of this month. Haven't witnessed modeling agree like this in a very long time.

Going to be exciting, if you're not already enjoying snow tonight or haven't already.

But what Tom showed is NOT ridiculous wx for those regions at the end of Oct. It might be if, say MSP beat their 30" storm like they got at Halloween in '91. They can and do get huge snows up that way this time of year. Now, if you or Tom or I got that then we'd really be talking epic stuff. Anyhow, I don't need to fast-forward into winter just yet, but I would like a good old fashioned autumn rainer tracking through the OHV. Not just to increase confidence in the new LRC for the winter, but we really could use a soaking around here. Tom mentioned something about an OHV low, but tbh I'm not seeing anything but I don't model watch until it's legit storm mode season.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Front yard of my place at 9am. Was probably more earlier, but certainly more than DSM city proper. .9" officially at the airport. (Mom visiting reason for car in yard and fall chores y'day).

PXL_20201018_135140016.jpg

PXL_20201018_135201330.jpg

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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1 hour ago, St Paul Storm said:

Took a break from social media and most things internet for a few months. Looking forward to some potential early season snows and storm tracking. Hope everyone has been well! 

I did too. Good to see you back. I came back here about a month ago. Looking good for you to have another serious winter. As usual, it's TBD for way over/down here. Tom feels blocking will rock and lock in more cold for a sustained winter, while NWS says blocking is NOT normally a thing during the typical La Nina and temps will roller-coaster up and down. There's also the historical risk that winter comes in so early that it's over after the holiday season. In those instances, by the time it's cold enough around here, we get about 4-5 weeks during December, then "poof what happened to winter?", just as it was getting good. Lots of question marks left at this point for the Lwr Lakes region.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Congrats to Peeps who got on the board with first snows already!

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I slept through the snow this morning, so I saw nothing.  🤬  I woke up to 33º and about 0.2" of snow on the ground.  I was only expected mid to upper 30s, so I left out all my flower pots.  I hope they will be ok.

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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GFS is back north with next Sunday's snowstorm.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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4 hours ago, St Paul Storm said:

Took a break from social media and most things internet for a few months. Looking forward to some potential early season snows and storm tracking. Hope everyone has been well! 

Good to hear from you buddy!  A few of us on here were hoping you were doing alright given the whole COVID-19 situation ongoing.  Glad to see ya back!

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I'm up in St Paul this weekend so idk if my place in IA got any snow. Just catching up on posts in here. Wow is all I have to say. Its crazy how fast we went from 80s and sun to potential multiple snow events and cold just in October. And all the reports of snow OTG across the middle of the sub this morning. Gettin it goin early!

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