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October 2020 Observations and Discussion


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Taken at 12:30PM, on the south side of Ankeny Iowa.  At least 6" on the ground.

First flakes of the season here in St. Paul today. It came down pretty heavy for 5-10 minutes this morning. .2” officially at the airport. 

First flakes of the season falling onto Lincoln. It’s light and wet, but it’s snow. 

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The last few days have been very wet across the MW/GL's....esp in parts of IA and WI...

1.png

 

 

Meantime, it's the coldest morning of the season IMBY with a chilly temp of 34F.  Might have a chance to dip to freezing this morning.  I'm hoping to see some thicker Frost this morning.

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Made it down to 32F for the 1st time this season!  Not as much frost as I'd imagine but there is heavy frost on the car tops and roofs.  I'm waiting for things to dry out this weekend into next week before I rake any leaves.  The extended looks dry into Halloween weekend so I think that will be a good time to perform Round 1 of outdoor yard work.

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11 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Slight drop in temps the last 24 or so.... lol

current.TAIR_24H.grad.png

In a VERY RARE day in history, Marshall has beaten the notoriously volatile Plains in the temps swing dept. We hit 71F about 1:30 pm Friday afternoon and bottomed out at a frosty 30F about 8 am this morning. Helluva CF is all I can say!

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Just voted. The sun has been out all day. It wasn't supposed to be. 28°F.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.5"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Could we finally be looking at our first true OHV Low next week?

-- Late week southern stream storm needs watched --

Later in the week a srn stream system/closed upr low, which taps
moisture from the tropical system in the Gulf, tracks east-
northeast from Texas. Most medium range deterministic guidance
has been indicating that this system stays south of us, but some
ensemble members suggest that heavier precip associated with the
deformation zone may impact srn Lwr Mi.

Over half of the ECMWF ensemble members are showing rain at AZO
on Thursday, and about a third of the members produce over an inch
of rain. Some of them even have over two inches of rain, and that
is true at GRR as well. This would be a cold rain if it happened
with a sfc high situated to our north and a northeast sfc wind.

 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Gosh, I sure hope the Euro is onto something cuz the 12z GFS is 15 days of utter boredom. around here anyways.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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45 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Could we finally be looking at our first true OHV Low next week?


-- Late week southern stream storm needs watched --

Later in the week a srn stream system/closed upr low, which taps
moisture from the tropical system in the Gulf, tracks east-
northeast from Texas. Most medium range deterministic guidance
has been indicating that this system stays south of us, but some
ensemble members suggest that heavier precip associated with the
deformation zone may impact srn Lwr Mi.

Over half of the ECMWF ensemble members are showing rain at AZO
on Thursday, and about a third of the members produce over an inch
of rain. Some of them even have over two inches of rain, and that
is true at GRR as well. This would be a cold rain if it happened
with a sfc high situated to our north and a northeast sfc wind.

 

I could only imagine the fun a month from now w these storm systems.....😀

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On 10/23/2020 at 7:12 PM, Niko said:

Storm system on Monday will be a soaker. Excellent track for huge snowmaker had it been a month later or so. Monday nite could mix w snow.

Looks like this is staying well south of us now. WPC has the 29-30th system even further south so Idk what GRR was smoking when they wrote this morning's AFD??

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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10 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Looks like this is staying well south of us now. WPC has the 29-30th system even further south so Idk what GRR was smoking when they wrote this morning's AFD??

The latest run of the GFS brings rain right up to your doorstep bud I think there's a lot left to figure out what this one

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20 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Looks like this is staying well south of us now. WPC has the 29-30th system even further south so Idk what GRR was smoking when they wrote this morning's AFD??

Yep, I saw that. My grid shows only 30% of any possible rainfall for mby w Mondays system.

Btw: my temps are falling like a rock. Already down to 33F and still plenty of nighttime hours to go. My low is definitely heading into the 20s. Cold nite!

As for the late week system, still plenty of time to figure this thing out.  I just hope I get a big Autumn rainstorm outta it. Remember, not snow yet.

 

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