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October 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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9 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Rates have decreased and I think I'm done with marked accumulation. 3.1" now, may add another tenth or two. Depth is now 7" which is good for October, and good for the upcoming cold spell.

You may have mentioned it but the 4.2" on Wednesday and if official the 3.1" today are both daily records for Fargo. Not sure how this will play out for the rest of the season.

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It's 81º in the southeast corner of Iowa, at Keokuk & Fort Madison.  I bet that feels good.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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33 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I don't think the front is getting up here.  It is still only in the low 50s here and low 60s in Iowa City, and even Sigourney and Oskaloosa continue to have an east wind.

+1- temp here 20 miles NW of DSM is allready starting to drop. Maxed out at 50.4F, now 49.8F.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Once the skies cleared up earlier this afternoon, the temps shot up and steadily rose through the 60's and now its a pleasant 76F with a bit of humidity (66F DP).  Not much wind, though, which will change quite a bit later this evening.  I'm going to end up putting away my patio furniture after they dry out in the sunshine.  Going to enjoy this brief reprieve from the chilly weather.  

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Need to keep these kinds of contrasts as we get deeper into winter!

 

20201022 CONUS Temps 5pm.jpg

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This is what an active winter (errr..autumn) looks like! Storm Watches hoisted while current storm headlines are still rolling. Can't remember the last time I was personally enjoying that situation. It's been a while for sure.

 

20201022 WSWatch.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Calling it for here. Final total 3.1". Airport certainly got less. Disappointed in the South shift but I don't think even the state line area got much more than here.

Snow-on-snow, stacking flakes multiple times, in October!  What do you want??

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The warm front moved through here at 3:17pm. while I was mowing the lawn in short sleeves! It was mild with an east breeze then suddenly the wind shifted to the ssw. and warmed up some more. Usually the wind slowly shifts around with a w.f. but this was a strong front. It’s in the mid 70°s with a dew in the upper 60°s while it’s winter across nw. Ia. all day! 

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Temps keep creeping up and now sitting at a balmy and humid 78F!  Wow, it feels like Summer.  No joke.  I think I’m going to grill my marinating chicken thighs instead of leftovers from yesterday along with grilled Zuchinni.  #WeberTime

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Loving all this from Des Moines NWS. Snow and potential record cold on the way!

Sunday Snow:

Another trough will develop late Saturday Night into early Sunday
morning across the southern Canadian Prairie Provinces, and surface
lee cyclogenesis will again occur in response to this. This system
will have rather robust dynamics with it, and likely will have areas
with enhanced frontogenetical forcing. Convergence in Iowa will not
be hard to come by on Sunday. What is interesting, is that the 12z
GFS has tracked the surface cyclone further south, but the ECMWF
tracks the center further north through the Ozarks Region.
Regardless, it is still looking like a widespread precipitation
event for Iowa on Sunday. Ensemble means for Sunday with respect to
QPF have a widespread 0.10", but several members in multiple
locations depict as much as 0.40". If a track similar to the GFS
occurs, the air will be quite cold, and most of the precipitation
would likely be snow. However, if the track remains further north,
there likely will be periods of rain followed by snow, dependent on
when the temperatures drop again after the center of the low has
pushed east. In addition, a north vs. south solution will also
impact how much moisture works back into Iowa ahead of the low
pressure. As mentioned at the top of this section, there likely will
be frontogenetical bands that develop as this system passes by, and
could result in some locations of the forecast area having snow
accumulations that would require headlines. For now, will be
conservative with the forecast and let today`s system pass by, and
allow subsequent runs to better depict the dynamics and additional
ensembles address the uncertainty with QPF and temperatures for
Sunday. But, be prepared for wintry impacts Sunday and maybe early
into Monday morning.

Extended:

Long range guidance in decent agreement with with trough acquiring
positive tilt as it propagates away from the Rockies. Closed low
over Hudson Bay moves south, forcing the flow further south and
allowing the trough to dig toward the Gulf Coast. This will allow a
strong Polar Airmass to move into the Upper Midwest, making for
unseasonably cold conditions across the state. This will lead to a
high potential for daily overnight low temperature records, and may
even lead to a few locations achieving daily record low maximum
temperatures. There may also be a few perturbations in this flow
leading to wintry precipitation. More details on precipitation in
the extended will be better known at a later time.
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29 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Snow-on-snow, stacking flakes multiple times, in October!  What do you want??

Last minute model shifts suck no matter what time of year it is.

I do like that I have snow that's staying on the ground for a week in October.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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3 minutes ago, Tom said:

Temps keep creeping up and now sitting at a balmy and humid 78F!  Wow, it feels like Summer.  No joke.  I think I’m going to grill my marinating chicken thighs instead of leftovers from yesterday along with grilled Zuchinni.  #WeberTime

Whoa. 37 here with falling temps and a wind chill in the low 20’s. Low clouds make it feel worse. 

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It is very foggy outside, w visibility as low as a .25 of a mile. Warmer air is definitely rushing in now. Temps are in the mid 50s and rising throughout the nite. WF still has not pushed through yet, but it is doing so. Will be in the warm sector by midnight or so.

 

Btw: not sure if I saw the number correctly, or if it was an error on their end, but is Toms pl in the upper 70s now at this hour?! Holy macro! That type of warm air is headed for my area I guess. Attm, 76F at Chicago O Hare Airport. Wow!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Today was rather disappointing.  All week it looked like 70s, but we couldn't even get out of the 50s and fog.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 minutes ago, Niko said:

It is very foggy outside, w visibility as low as a .25 of a mile. Warmer air is definitely rushing in now. Temps are in the mid 50s now and rising throughout the nite. WF still has not pushed through yet, but it is doing so. Will be in the warm sector by midnight or so.

 

Btw: not sure if I saw the number correctly, or if it was an error on their end, but is Toms pl in the upper 70s now at this hour?! Holy macro! That type of warm air is headed for my area. Attm, 76F at Chicago O Hare Airport. Wow!

Yes indeed!  Topped out at 78F and it’s still very warm outside.  Got the windows cracked open and just finished grilling and eating dinner.  This is a nice treat to enjoy before the cold settles in.

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2 minutes ago, Tom said:

Yes indeed!  Topped out at 78F and it’s still very warm outside.  Got the windows cracked open and just finished grilling and eating dinner.  This is a nice treat to enjoy before the cold settles in.

Wow.....Crazy stuff.....

Might as well enjoy the Weber and windows being cracked while we can because as we all know, Winter is in a hurry this year to arrive. I have my windows cracked also. Its awesome feeling that mild/warm breeze coming inside your home.

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

Temps keep creeping up and now sitting at a balmy and humid 78F!  Wow, it feels like Summer.  No joke.  I think I’m going to grill my marinating chicken thighs instead of leftovers from yesterday along with grilled Zuchinni.  #WeberTime

Spiked to 65F for about 38.235 minutes here. Looks like that may be our "max" from this torch day. 13 degree spread between your place and mine is significant.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Last minute model shifts suck no matter what time of year it is.

I do like that I have snow that's staying on the ground for a week in October.

True that! I haven't had a model worth watching in many months. Have to have a model looking good b4 you can get screwed.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

Today was rather disappointing.  All week it looked like 70s, but we couldn't even get out of the 50s and fog.

Crazy. Just a little further south here in Tiffin we made it up to 72. It was very warm earlier even at 7pm it was still very warm and humid. 

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16 minutes ago, Tom said:

In other news, Trump just signed into law the Space Weather Bill.  It basically allows the government to have access to many more assets to study space weather and the relationship between the Sun and Earth.

https://spacepolicyonline.com/news/president-signs-proswift-space-weather-bill-but-with-caveats/

 

Is that part of the new space force?

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2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Today was rather disappointing.  All week it looked like 70s, but we couldn't even get out of the 50s and fog.

That’s amazing because I had a high of 76°, the exact temperature that the NWS. point forecast had for me since yesterday or earlier. They got it right for me but not north of I-80.

BTW, the cold front moved through not long ago and temp is dropping fast.

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My temp still at 54F under very foggy conditions. Now, I mention the word "Still" because, I am anxiously waiting to get into the warmer air. It will feel great.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Next week looks downright chilly and gets even colder by the following weekend. November enters the picture next Sunday and it sure will show its presence. Highs looking to be in the 40s all week and lows in the 30s, w a few 20s in spots I would imagine, especially in the northern terrain.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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5 hours ago, GDR said:

Is that part of the new space force?

I don't think so..politicians have been trying to pass this for a number of years but Trump got it done from what I've learned.  Is it a coincidence it happened under his term and he launched the Space Force?  Could be.  I'll tell you one thing, he's certainly bringing the USA back in Space.

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