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October 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom
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On 10/28/2020 at 3:45 PM, Tom said:

October will go down in the record books for many reasons, but what is intriguing to me, is the tweet from Judah Cohen which suggests this is the MOST expansive snow cover extent for North America so early in the season.  #SolarMin  #2020

 

../plots/daily_snow_extent/multisensor_4km_na_snow_extent_by_year_graph.png

I never saw this post until now, Tom; but I'd argue without him (Mr. Cohen) knowing what I said, nor I what he said, he wrote the words I did almost. There was not a "bar" or a precedent for what just happened down here either. 

Where do you start? I just saw a record (very likely more than one, of course) fall that had been standing for a hundred. Years. A century. Not by a shade or a degree or two but 14 degrees.

I probably just experienced the lowest 5 day mean temp and longest October storm I have probably ever experienced in my life and we're at naming hurricanes hieroglyphs or something at this point. (Lol) They're on number 5 just in Louisiana alone at this writing. 

Just taking all this in is pretty astounding if you think about it.

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5 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I never saw this post until now, Tom; but I'd argue without him (Mr. Cohen) knowing what I said, nor I what he said, he wrote the words I did almost. There was not a "bar" or a precedent for what just happened down here either. 

Where do you start? I just saw a record (very likely more than one, of course) fall that had been standing for a hundred. Years. A century. Not by a shade or a degree or two but 14 degrees.

I probably just experienced the lowest 5 day mean temp and longest October storm I have probably ever experienced in my life and we're at naming hurricanes hieroglyphs or something at this point. (Lol) They're on number 5 just in Louisiana alone at this writing. 

Just taking all this in is pretty astounding if you think about it.

Adding....

I'd say that OKC just endured it's most devastating October ice storm on record except that there was a problem. Ice storms do not happen in OKC in October.

It would be amazing. Shattering records. There wasn't one there to break, that's amazing. Its never happened before.. I never thought I would ever see something like that.

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On 10/28/2020 at 4:45 PM, Tom said:

October will go down in the record books for many reasons, but what is intriguing to me, is the tweet from Judah Cohen which suggests this is the MOST expansive snow cover extent for North America so early in the season.  #SolarMin  #2020

 

../plots/daily_snow_extent/multisensor_4km_na_snow_extent_by_year_graph.png

 

9 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I never saw this post until now, Tom; but I'd argue without him (Mr. Cohen) knowing what I said, nor I what he said, he wrote the words I did almost. There was not a "bar" or a precedent for what just happened down here either. 

Where do you start? I just saw a record (very likely more than one, of course) fall that had been standing for a hundred. Years. A century. Not by a shade or a degree or two but 14 degrees.

I probably just experienced the lowest 5 day mean temp and longest October storm I have probably ever experienced in my life and we're at naming hurricanes hieroglyphs or something at this point. (Lol) They're on number 5 just in Louisiana alone at this writing. 

Just taking all this in is pretty astounding if you think about it.

Was watching "Gav's winter forecast update" out of the UK, not because I'm particularly impressed by this guy's acumen, nor his nasally tone. He does however look at every Eurasian snow cover map all the way back to 1967 for comparison of current conditions (10/23/20). I saw the 10/23/76 record snow cover map and all the record amounts back then were on the other side of the globe, NOT over here. That's a major difference imho, tho I can't say to what effects on our incoming winter. Several notoriously cold winters had a similar Eurasian/Scandinavian cover on that date. Notably '95, '02, '78. Prolly the closest in recent past was 2012. But, again he's focusing on that side for the benefit of what Europe's and the UK's winter might be shaping up like. I was trying my best to watch NAMER side as he compared that side. 2013 was not that impressive in the 3rd week of October fwiw.  

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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22 hours ago, jaster220 said:

 

Was watching "Gav's winter forecast update" out of the UK, not because I'm particularly impressed by this guy's acumen, nor his nasally tone. He does however look at every Eurasian snow cover map all the way back to 1967 for comparison of current conditions (10/23/20). I saw the 10/23/76 record snow cover map and all the record amounts back then were on the other side of the globe, NOT over here. That's a major difference imho, tho I can't say to what effects on our incoming winter. Several notoriously cold winters had a similar Eurasian/Scandinavian cover on that date. Notably '95, '02, '78. Prolly the closest in recent past was 2012. But, again he's focusing on that side for the benefit of what Europe's and the UK's winter might be shaping up like. I was trying my best to watch NAMER side as he compared that side. 2013 was not that impressive in the 3rd week of October fwiw.  

I'd have to reference some of the European weather history i know, which isn't very much, to get a mental picture of what the Nhem patterns would have done on their side of the globe. Lot of variance to take into account as well. (I think from 74 up through mid or late 80s Russia was in the icebox) Were the AO splits the "4 lobe" split or the full "polar vortex of 2013 hysteria" kind with 2 large clean lobes. Where were all of the other quasi-stationary tropical features cyclical blocks and ridges, etc...? Technically we were exiting a cold period of history through the 70s and the cold was stacked on the other side of the globe during and after. Wonder if it really is as simple as flipping it.

Wonder if this is why, even though I do agree with much of the science behind the AER, SAI, cyclical weather harmonic theorems (because all have produced great, yet imperfect evidence) it struggles in years like the last 3. I think it's defects are in that it doesn't work in times of cyclical variance (ie:long term climactic shifts), and maybe during periods where the pacific tropics are the #1 variable at play and they blow every other high latitude ocean/atmosphere temperature coupled driver at play completely out of the water.

Lots of random thoughts about that but good post. 

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