Jump to content
The Weather Forums

October 2020 Observations and Discussion


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 693
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Taken at 12:30PM, on the south side of Ankeny Iowa.  At least 6" on the ground.

First flakes of the season falling onto Lincoln. It’s light and wet, but it’s snow. 

First flakes of the season here in St. Paul today. It came down pretty heavy for 5-10 minutes this morning. .2” officially at the airport. 

Posted Images

37 minutes ago, Niko said:

I hope SEMI gets at least some moisture from Delta. Rainfall here could be used.

Key Note: Delta’s rapid intensification from 40 mph winds to 110 mph in just 24 hours is the most an October Atlantic named storm has ever intensified, since Hurricane Wilma back in 2005. Wow!

The current forecasted track for Delta has it making landfall dangerously close to where Hurricane Laura came ashore. Some of the model trends appear to be pulling the system even further west, possibly making landfall closer to Lake Charles, Louisiana - they definitely don't need another storm in that area.  

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro is teasing me with potential first flakes around D8. Also shows a dusting in Beltrami's yard.

  • Like 2
  • Snow 3

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (3.3"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 3.9"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

The current forecasted track for Delta has it making landfall dangerously close to where Hurricane Laura came ashore. Some of the model trends appear to be pulling the system even further west, possibly making landfall closer to Lake Charles, Louisiana - they definitely don't need another storm in that area.  

Indeed. That is the last thing they need.

In the meantime, Hurricane Delta has exploded into a CAT4 "Powerhouse" as it heads toward Mexico's Yukcatan Pennisula.

Btw: Hope you get a speedy recovery!

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, Tom said:

This post may be a bit long as there is a LOT going on in this changing weather pattern and it's looking quite exciting, especially when you consider what potential  this all means as we head deeper into the cold season.  Today, is on average the 1st day of the new LRC in the mid latitudes (where we live) as the sun has set up north near the North Pole where the new LRC pattern is already in progress....it sure is looking fascinating!

 

So, here we are on Oct 6th and taking a look at the 500mb vorticity map below some interesting features I see that bode well for our folks out west.  Take a look at that little feature off the west coast of Cali (albeit it weak). I've been following this energy over the past week and it holds a big clue to what this will mean down the road in the colder months as the jet strengthens.  What does this mean for us??  IMO, this is a clue to me that in December the jet stream will be targeting Cali as LRC cycle #2 cycles through.  Some of the climate models have S Cali bone dry this winter but this may not be the case as we will probably have systems target this region throughout the winter months.

The second feature I'd like to point out is in the Caribbean where we may have a major Hurricane strike the GOM coastline by this weekend.  I originally thought the Cali wave would develop out in the Plains later this week but the ridge is to strong.  Could this behave differently next cycle??  Yes, it very well could.  The next major hurricane to develop in the GOM later this week will be an interesting GOM connection in the winter months.

Thirdly, the good Ol' North American Vortex is back and it means business this season.  It will not only lock in the cold for our continent this cold season but I'm seeing some peculiar signals that it will also "pump" the Greenland/N Atlantic Ridge this season.

gfs_z500_vort_namer_2.png

 

 

As we move forward a few days, the 1st significant storm system of the new LRC is coming into the picture late this weekend and more so early next week.  The models had ZERO clue on the Blocking pattern that is now showing impressive signals which will likely be signature features, or rather, long term-long wave patterns.  Have you noticed how much farther south this energy tracks through the Rockies this weekend into early next week???  Blocking is looking prevalent and this is the perfect slot whereby you want storms to track during the heart of Winter.   Knowing seasonal variances in the jet stream will likely shift south, I'm intrigued by this storm for many reasons but lets see it develop first.

 

1.gif

 

 

I'll finish the post with this comment because I feel it is important for the long haul.  Did the models just drink the "cool aid"???  Boy, was this a BIG miss by both the American and Euro in the longer range as they had no idea of the magnitude of blocking that looks to be on the agenda.  Hello Greenland Block and SW Ridge (creates a unique "Slider" storm track) just off the Cali coast.  The result from this major flip in the models overnight is a MUCH colder and stormier pattern across our Sub.  Remember those Bearing Sea storms during the end of Sept???  They are poised to cycle through and this will be our 1st one early next week.

2.gif

 

00z EPS Day 10 500mb pattern...had zero clue of the W NAMER ridge last week as it was portraying a +EPO which has now turned negative.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

1.png

 

If the models are this bad handling the blocking patterns, how could we trust the LR climate models that pretty much show barely any high lat blocking???  Needless to say, it's going to be a fun season from what I'm seeing very early on.  Get ready to see some flakes fly for some of you farther west and north.

Dude! That energy in the panhandle region at d6-ish would be "choice" in winter.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Niko said:

Indeed. That is the last thing they need.

In the meantime, Hurricane Delta has exploded into a CAT4 "Powerhouse" as it heads toward Mexico's Yukcatan Pennisula.

Btw: Hope you get a speedy recovery!

Thanks Niko! It's been a stressful time in our household, however I feel that we are going to get through it fine. I have actually felt better today than I have over the last few days, so that's a plus. 

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

The GFS and Euro are way different for Saturday. GFS keeps trending colder and now has highs only in the low to mid 60s with windy conditions. The Euro shows mid to upper 70s and about perfect fall weather. I sure hope the Euro is right. 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

The GFS and Euro are way different for Saturday. GFS keeps trending colder and now has highs only in the low to mid 60s with windy conditions. The Euro shows mid to upper 70s and about perfect fall weather. I sure hope the Euro is right. 

Over here in Eastern Nebraska we are locked into highs in the low and mid 80's through Sunday with not a drop of rain in the forecast through the weekend (the drought continues to deepen here)... the AC went back on today after not having it on for over a week and a half.

It looks like we should see a decent drop back to more normal temperatures and maybe some much-needed rain by early next week.

Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Over here in Eastern Nebraska we are locked into highs in the low and mid 80's through Sunday with not a drop of rain in the forecast through the weekend (the drought continues to deepen here)... the AC went back on today after not having it on for over a week and a half.

It looks like we should see a decent drop back to more normal temperatures and maybe some much-needed rain by early next week.

Same thing here. AC is still running tonight. Had football the last 2 nights. Very warm with just a slight breeze. Just can’t break this almost 6 month pattern. NWS Hastings is talking chance of rain next week, but breaking a drought is tough. 

  • Sun 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting AFD update. No wonder this afternoon's sky was a classic "October sky" with jet streak clouds galore. This is unique wording in my memory fwiw.

Quote


.UPDATE...
Issued at 729 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2020

I have increased our risk for showers north of Route 20 for late
this evening.

That is one serious jet core (160 to 170 knots) heading our way
tonight. This is one of those classic setups with a good low
level response (65 knot low level jet goes under the 165 knot jet
core). There is strong 1000/850 moisture transport ahead of the
jet core, aimed at central Lower Michigan (where the upper and
lower jets cross each other). There is an area of showers and
thunderstorms currently over Northern Wisconsin and western upper
Michigan. What is missing is deep moisture. Even so the dynamics
area so strong that it may make up for that some. After all there
are currently storms in northern WI.

The core of the upper jet crosses over northern Lower Michigan
after midnight. Location in the left front exit region of that jet
will surely see rain tonight. However even the most northeast part
of our CWA is south of that jet core. Even so we do get from
around 10 pm till around 2 am, the area near and north of Route
20, will have surface convergence under the maximum upper
divergence. So it seems we should get a least a few rain showers
from this. I updated the grids/zones with higher pop north of
Route 20 after 10 pm.

The strong winds will keep the air mixed so I increased the low
temperature a few degrees too.

Aviation update:


Meanwhile we have a 160 knot polar jet core heading toward central
Lower Michigan tonight. Anyone flying between 25,000 and 35,000
ft, near and north of I-96 will have winds of 150 to 160 knots
from the northwest (possibly greater than 160 knots). This will
result in moderate to extreme jet stream related turbulence
between 03z and 09z. As that upper level jet crosses Michigan
tonight it will create a low level jet that will be nearly
perpendicular to the upper jet. In the 03z to 09z time frame
expect 40 to 65 knots of wind from the southwest. This will result
in low level wind shear.

 

  • Like 2

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Niko said:

I hope SEMI gets at least some moisture from Delta. Rainfall here could be used.

Key Note: Delta’s rapid intensification from 40 mph winds to 110 mph in just 24 hours is the most an October Atlantic named storm has ever intensified, since Hurricane Wilma back in 2005. Wow!

Looking good per GRR

Quote

- Rain early next week

We will be watching forecast trends for the post landfall path of
the tropical cyclone over the weekend into early next week. At
this point it appears the bulk of the tropical moisture remains
south of Lower Michigan and separate from the upper trough moving
eastward from the Western CONUS. This trough could still tap some
residual moisture as deep south-southeasterly flow occurs ahead of
it.

So even without the remnants of the tropical cyclone, we do expect
potentially heavy rain on Monday or Tuesday with high precipitable
water values in place along with a slow moving surface front and
upper level diffluence. QPF amounts over an inch appear possible.

 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Niko said:

Indeed. That is the last thing they need.

In the meantime, Hurricane Delta has exploded into a CAT4 "Powerhouse" as it heads toward Mexico's Yukcatan Pennisula.

Btw: Hope you get a speedy recovery!

My older sister had major spine surgery and is finally due to go home Thursday in Baton Rouge, LA which looks to be in the current "cone" per the NHC for Friday. While quite far inland, they could still have disruptive side-effects just like they did when Andrew made his 2nd landfall there the year after they bought their home in 1991.

  • Like 1

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Seeing this map and the hurricane named "Delta" reminded me of my father's story about how he endured 66 hrs of winds on a small pacific island during WW2. This was prior to named storms but later it was known as "Typhoon Cobra". A bad weather forecast ended up in the tragic loss of nearly 800 USN sailors and substantial loss of equipment. At the time Admiral Halsey's fleet was in the Typhoon's grip, they were "lost" as the communications of that era were archaic by today's standards. News reports were saying they didn't know the whereabouts of the fleet, but the morning the storm abated, my dad who was himself in a communications corp, walked over the sand dunes and there was the entire fleet parked inside this ring of islands that offered a natural shelter. Reading this wiki article, one of the carriers turned sideways to the winds and tilted so far over the deck had waves washing over. Now that had to be scary stuff, even if you were at war. (click on attachment to enlarge for reading)

 

 

Typhoon Cobra-1944.PNG

20201006 noaad3.PNG

  • Like 6

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Its a warm, breezy morning with a nice SW breeze and current temp of 62F.  Had the window cracked open downstairs and the room had that "fresh" autumn smell to it....ahh, not a bad Tuesday morning!  On the flip side of things, my buddy down in Cancun had to evacuate from the hotel (state law) right when they were supposed to check in yesterday as they arrived from the airport.  That's gotta suck.  He did manage to venture to the beach and said the waves were massive as Delta churned in the Caribbean.  Their whole crew had to take a 3 hour bus ride inland where they would ride out the storm.  If Delta is as bad as they say, CUN is going to withstand some major damage.  God speed to those in the vicinity of this storm.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

So, the 00z EPS has done a complete 180 near the NE PAC or W NAMER from 2 days ago...here was the 5-day mean for the same period just two days ago for Week 2....

 

1.png

 

 

Current run...hello west coast ridge and eastern Canada block that later turns into a stout Greenland Block.  Seems to me the models keep missing these key blocking patterns that will drive our wx pattern.  The end result is a colder and wetter pattern heading into next week.  The BSR is going to have a BIG win if this turns out to be right.

 

 

2.png

 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

I noticed the EPS shift yesterday, and meant to post about it but didn't. Ensembles have been unmitigated garbage past D10 all season. Consistently all over the place with a warm bias when all averaged out.

  • Like 2

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (3.3"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 3.9"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Here in parts of west Michigan we had a odd overnight. I went to bed with a temperature of 57 and when I woke up the reading here was 60 so I did not think much of that. Until I had a text from a friend who said that it was a warm night (yes temperatures in the upper 50’s to near 60 are warm for October) Then he mentioned that it was 69 at his house. And I looked at the hourly reading and wow the official reading at GRR jump up from 60 to 66 at 4AM and here at my house it jumped up to 68. But is now back down to 60.

  • Like 2
  • Confused 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

NWS Hastings says the earliest potential of the next Frost/Freeze would be around Oct. 15 or Oct. 16.  I have been in two Frost Advisories so far.  The coldest I have seen is 33 in one and 35 in the other so I believe NWS will continue issuing for most of the region.   For my location, Nov. 4th of 1998 is the latest Frost in history.  Earliest Frost for me is Sept. 20, 1991.  However, the way this year has gone, nothing at all would surprise me.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

I have to say that the color of the trees changing is the best I've seen in years.  I'm guessing the dry weather along with some cool then hot weather has played a role.  Had quite a few leaves blowing around last weekend.  If we get a strong wind to come through in the next week, we'll lose a 1/3 of more of the leaves.  My front yard tree has already lost about 1/4 of the leaves and the color change on the rest is well ahead of the past few years from what I remember.  

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, Bryan1117 said:

Thanks Niko! It's been a stressful time in our household, however I feel that we are going to get through it fine. I have actually felt better today than I have over the last few days, so that's a plus. 

You bet!

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

It is a windy day today as a dry CF will swing on through my area. Shower activity will be found to my north, unfortunately.  Winds are gusting to 30 mph at times and along w that, a very pleasant temp of 70F.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Looking good per GRR

 

I hope this pans out amigo. It will be awesome to get some tropical rains here. Thanks for posting it! 👊

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I have put the cover on the AC and put most of the hoses away. I am kind of lucky I only have two small trees in the yard and what leave I do get will not come until later in the month and if I have to I can wait until spring. The sun is out here and it is kind of windy with a temperature of 66.. There are clouds off to the north.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

It is noticeably cooler this morning with a current temp right at the average low of the day (46F).  Another stunner expected today with calmer winds and a high of 70F with abundant sunshine.  The weather for the remainder of this week looks absolutely amazing and you betta get out and enjoy it bc massive changes are heading our way come mid/late next week.  Before then, a high near 80F both Fri and possibly Sat with nothing but sunshine...Indian Summer baby!  I'm probably going to put my hoses and patio furniture away this weekend and do what @WestMJim did and cover up my A/C.

 

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Gosh, where do I begin???  Holy smokes did both the mid and LR modeling do a major flip for next week's weather and for the rest of October.  My goodness, but I'm almost dumbfounded how badly the modeling is handling the blocking near and far across the vicinity of our continent.  I'll explain in this LR post which will feature the likelihood of the 1st Freezes of this Autumn season.

In terms of the teleconnections, every single model has locked on to the idea of a negative to neutral EPO/-AO/-NAO/+PNA pattern for Week 2.  In layman terms, this pattern is poised to unleash the seasons coldest air and possible first flakes of the season for some peeps on here.  The eastern CONUS is going to get cold...I could see possible records being set the following weekend (17th-18th) for places near the GL's/MW/OHV.  In fact, for the 1st time this season, the 00z EPS showed a faint hint of snow in some of the ensemble members across the OHV.  For a model to "see" this at this range tells me that it's gonna get cold.  The BSR is going to be a great long lead forecasting tool bc none of the models were showing a massive cool down next week.  In fact, I remember the Euro weeklies and CFSv2 weeklies a couple weeks ago advertising a massive ridge pattern.  Both of those models did not see the -EPO pattern.  Are the SST's playing a role in the NE PAC???  Cold eastern/central equatorial PAC???  I believe so....it appears to me that we are on the verge of heading into a cold pattern after a nice stretch of weather this week.

 

Y202010.D0712_gls.png

 

 

 

JMA weeklies have trended colder for the eastern Sub in Week 2...

 

Y202010.D0712_gl2.png

 

The west coast ridge pops and locks for the remainder of the month...

Y202010.D0712_gl0.png

 

Check out the Week 2 500mb pattern below that shows the Aleutian Low, West Coast Ridge, Scandinavian Ridge and Greenland Block....this is literally a dream pattern if it would be winter....I'm eyeing a storm riding up somewhere across the deep south into the OHV or Apps during the 15th-17th time frame that correlates with the East Asian Rule from this storm system below which is going to track near Japan.

 

ecmwf_mslpaNorm_wpac_3.png

 

The CFSv2 weeklies are trending wetter now as we get closer in time for next week into parts of the Plains/MW...

 

wk1.wk2_20201007.NA.png

Week 3-4...

Temp...

 

Y202010.D0712_gl2.png

 

If the JMA weeklies are right, I could see some late season tropical storm and/or hurricane hits along the EC...again, the BSR suggests there to be some big time storms to hit the eastern CONUS and I'm almost certain there will be a GOM connection.  IMO, this may be one of the most interesting Octobers our nation across the East has had in a long time.  Finally, notice the W PAC coming alive...re-curving late season Typhoon's anyone???  #FlipTheScript2020

 

Y202010.D0712_gl0.png

 

3.png

2.png

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Definitely got way cooler than expected. Currently 39.7*F.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (3.3"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 3.9"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Tom said:

Gosh, where do I begin???  Holy smokes did both the mid and LR modeling do a major flip for next week's weather and for the rest of October.  My goodness, but I'm almost dumbfounded how badly the modeling is handling the blocking near and far across the vicinity of our continent.  I'll explain in this LR post which will feature the likelihood of the 1st Freezes of this Autumn season.

In terms of the teleconnections, every single model has locked on to the idea of a negative to neutral EPO/-AO/-NAO/+PNA pattern for Week 2.  In layman terms, this pattern is poised to unleash the seasons coldest air and possible first flakes of the season for some peeps on here.  The eastern CONUS is going to get cold...I could see possible records being set the following weekend (17th-18th) for places near the GL's/MW/OHV.  In fact, for the 1st time this season, the 00z EPS showed a faint hint of snow in some of the ensemble members across the OHV.  For a model to "see" this at this range tells me that it's gonna get cold.  The BSR is going to be a great long lead forecasting tool bc none of the models were showing a massive cool down next week.  In fact, I remember the Euro weeklies and CFSv2 weeklies a couple weeks ago advertising a massive ridge pattern.  Both of those models did not see the -EPO pattern.  Are the SST's playing a role in the NE PAC???  Cold eastern/central equatorial PAC???  I believe so....it appears to me that we are on the verge of heading into a cold pattern after a nice stretch of weather this week.

 

Y202010.D0712_gls.png

 

 

 

JMA weeklies have trended colder for the eastern Sub in Week 2...

 

Y202010.D0712_gl2.png

 

The west coast ridge pops and locks for the remainder of the month...

Y202010.D0712_gl0.png

 

Check out the Week 2 500mb pattern below that shows the Aleutian Low, West Coast Ridge, Scandinavian Ridge and Greenland Block....this is literally a dream pattern if it would be winter....I'm eyeing a storm riding up somewhere across the deep south into the OHV or Apps during the 15th-17th time frame that correlates with the East Asian Rule from this storm system below which is going to track near Japan.

 

ecmwf_mslpaNorm_wpac_3.png

 

The CFSv2 weeklies are trending wetter now as we get closer in time for next week into parts of the Plains/MW...

 

wk1.wk2_20201007.NA.png

Week 3-4...

Temp...

 

Y202010.D0712_gl2.png

 

If the JMA weeklies are right, I could see some late season tropical storm and/or hurricane hits along the EC...again, the BSR suggests there to be some big time storms to hit the eastern CONUS and I'm almost certain there will be a GOM connection.  IMO, this may be one of the most interesting Octobers our nation across the East has had in a long time.  Finally, notice the W PAC coming alive...re-curving late season Typhoon's anyone???  #FlipTheScript2020

 

Y202010.D0712_gl0.png

 

3.png

2.png

Loving these recent trends. I'm ready for it! Thanks for the update, Tom.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
22 hours ago, Niko said:

You bet!

I got confirmation last night that I did test positive for COVID-19 (from my test last Friday). I feel like I might be on the mend from this thing though, as I have felt much better the last 24 hours and my sense of taste is starting to come back. My sense of smell is still not there yet, however the constant headaches and sore throat are relaxing a bit, and I have a dry cough that is similar to the ones I get with a cold - nothing worse than that. 

I can't wait to get out of the house though, I am usually always on the go so it has been a rough last couple of weeks being stuck at home. Thankful my new job has me constantly busy answering e-mails and phone calls, so that's helped keep me busy.

  • Like 8
Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro is very progressive. After Monday, we don't seem to be in the same pattern for more than a few days. I can live with that. The only thing that stays constant is a West coast ridge.

Euro 2.png

Euro 3.png

Euro 5.png

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
  • Sad 1

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (3.3"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 3.9"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Euro is very progressive. After Monday, we don't seem to be in the same pattern for more than a few days. I can live with that. The only thing that stays constant is a West coast ridge.

Euro 2.png

Euro 3.png

Euro 5.png

West coast ridge is brutal for me.  Hope the ridge breaks down!

  • Like 2
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Latest drought map. 

 

Amazing how quickly the moderate and severe drought areas have expanded across the state throughout this summer and fall. 

Here's a crazy number on the depth of this drought... normal annual rainfall for Omaha through October 8th is 26.41 inches... our current 2020 rainfall so far is 13.70 - nearly a 13 inch deficit. Hopefully the pattern will change in the next month or so, and deliver us some moisture over the Winter months - I really don't even care at this point if it's rain or snow, just hoping we see some decent moisture across the state to keep this drought from getting worse. 

More salt in the wound with another near 90 degree day on the docket for tomorrow (it better be the last one, however it's 2020 so we better not rule anything out)... at this point, we might as well break the record high for the day. 

  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Happy Friday!  #TGIF...while its a cool start to the morning (47F), temps will rebound amidst strong SW winds and temps will surge to near 80F today along with abundant sunshine.  What a day it should be.  Smokey skies may mix in later in the day, however, so not as blue of skies.  Might be the last 80F of the season...time will tell.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

The models are dialing up some Octobrrrrrr chill for later next week/weekend.  Yikes, this is shaking up to be a winter-like blast of early season cold for the Upper MW/Plains...and...possible 1st flakes???

 

1.png!

2.png

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
  • Snow 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

It's that time of year, well, actually...it's a bit early for this but I took a look at the GEFS/GEPS 10mb strat forecasts and both models are suggesting a weakened PV.  The modeling is showing an elongated PV stretched out and funneling cold air into North America.  Sign of the times???  Solar Minimum???  Whatever view you have, this is happening way early in the season for the modeling to suggest this...let's see if it transpires.  #CrossPolarFlow

 

1.gif

 

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

My wife and me are going on a short road trip today. The plan is it take some back roads up to Houghton Lake to look at the color on the trees. And then have lunch at a a small park on Houghton Lake call Trestle Park. 
The overnight low here at my house was 40 and it looks like the official low at GRR was 39. At this time it is 43 and clear here.

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, westMJim said:

My wife and me are going on a short road trip today. The plan is it take some back roads up to Houghton Lake to look at the color on the trees. And then have lunch at a a small park on Houghton Lake call Trestle Park. 
The overnight low here at my house was 40 and it looks like the official low at GRR was 39. At this time it is 43 and clear here.

A great idea to take advantage of this gorgeous weather!  Have fun and take a lot of pics!

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Tom said:

The models are dialing up some Octobrrrrrr chill for later next week/weekend.  Yikes, this is shaking up to be a winter-like blast of early season cold for the Upper MW/Plains...and...possible 1st flakes???

 

1.png!

2.png

This would be a shock to the system for us in the Central Plains as we may hit record highs of close to 90 degrees today.  A/C and lawn sprinklers are still running as if it was summer.  I hope this verifies.

  • Like 1
  • Snow 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow, that last euro run really dialed up the moisture here in the upper Plains/Northwoods.

  • Like 1

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (3.3"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 3.9"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Does anyone know what impacts if any the WPO has on weather?

A -WPO usually suggests a cold and stormy eastern CONUS in fall and winter.  It typically means the west PAC is active with tropical systems.

  • Thanks 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Already warming up very quickly. 51.8*F. Today and Sunday, we flirt with 80. 

  • Sun 1

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (3.3"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 3.9"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...