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50 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Gonna get seriously flipped on our temps again.

GRR:

 

My highs by Friday and Saturday will most likely remain in the 40s, maybe 50F if I am lucky. Freeze and frost advisories are looking very likely amigo. A few places hitting the 20s for nighttime lows also looks like a real possibility.

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Taken at 12:30PM, on the south side of Ankeny Iowa.  At least 6" on the ground.

First flakes of the season here in St. Paul today. It came down pretty heavy for 5-10 minutes this morning. .2” officially at the airport. 

Fall in the northwoods!

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Feels like late spring outside right now, with temps soaring into the mid and upper 70's with dewpoints in the 60's. High temps look to get back in the mid and upper 80's before the cold front surges in this evening. 

Looks like our best chance for severe weather here in Eastern Nebraska since August, as we are in a slight risk. Kind of fitting that one of our most decent chances of severe weather in all of 2020 comes in mid-October... this year has proven that it can be hard to break weather patterns though, so I really wouldn't be surprised if we get missed again somehow.  

On a positive note, my COVID-19 symptoms are going away quickly and according to CDC guidelines I will be able to return to working in the field by Tuesday or Wednesday. 

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 After the first 10 days at Grand Rapids the mean so far is 52.5° that is a departure of -2.5. The high so far has been 79 and the low so far 32. At Muskegon the mean is 53.4 (departure -0.8) the highest so far 75 and the lowest 36. At Holland the mean is 52.6 (-3.4) the high 77 the lowest 36. At Lansing the mean there is 51.6 (-2.3) the high 78 and the lowest 33. To the east at Detroit their mean so far is 55.1 (-1.1) the highest so far 77 and the lowest 39. At Flint their mean is 52.8 (-0.8) the highest 77 the lowest 34. At Saginaw/Bay City the mean is 52.8 (-0.6) the highest 78 and the lowest 34. Up north at Alpena their mean 48.6 (-1.4) the highest 73 and the lowest 31. At Houghton Lake the mean so far 46.7(-2.9)  the highest 74 and the lowest 27. In the UP at The Sault the mean 48.6 (-0.9) the highest so far 66 and the lowest 34. And at Marquette the mean of 45.7 is -1.7. The highest so far this month is 74 and the lowest so far is 31 and they have reported 0.8” of snow fall so far. All major reporting locations so far this month are cooler than average and many have seen the warmest temperatures for the month.

At this time it is sunny and 66 here after a overnight low of 46.

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This is the best the radar has looked around here for a couple of months it seems like. A nice line of strong storms from South Central Nebraska up towards Minnesota. Only one severe warned cell currently west of York along Interstate 80, however it looks like we should get a decent shot of rain and thunder in the next couple of hours in Omaha. You can do it Mother Nature! 

Screenshot 2020-10-11 204404.png

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1 hour ago, snowstorm83 said:

Lancaster under a SVR warning and the line has really thickened in the past hour. 

Saw there was a 76 MPH wind gust in Lincoln. The line has hit us pretty good here with strong winds and brief heavy rains, enough to warrant a Severe Thunderstorm Warning. Only have picked up about .30 of rain so far though with a little bit more to go. However this was expected to be a quick hitter and we will take any moisture we can get. 

This has been an interesting and much needed Fall severe storm event for us around here to watch. Mother Nature finally delivered us a nice storm. 

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Impressive storm, but it looks like LNK only picked up 0.20". It was really coming down for a bit, it's a shame that's all that was squeezed out. But like what's been mentioned, we'll take what we can get. At least it's 50s and 60s for highs after the next few days. Everybody's loving it but the indian summer has overstayed it's welcome in my view. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2016-17: 7.5"

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

 

Average: 25.9"

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Happy Columbus Day and Good Monday morning!  What a week of wx that is forthcoming and congrats to those out in NE who is scored some storm action last night.  While watching the radar explode a linear line, I was hoping and praying it wouldn't fall apart for you guys.  Glad it did not.  Anyhow, hoping that same front rolls through here later today and drops some beneficial rains.

Meantime, later this week is when massive changes occur and most of us head into an extended period of BN temps along with possible snow fall and likely very cold temps for the time of year.  Many first Freezes are likely across the Sub and it may even make its way into the city proper for Chitown if not this weekend then early next week.  It's going to feel like November for many of us on here.  I'm certainly going to enjoy the next several days here as I see a couple more 70's are in the mix for Tue and Wed before the bottom drops.

 

 

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In other news, while I was flipping through the models and reading up on some financial news, I happened to come across this article that lists the Top 20 cities to live in American.  Interestingly, many of you come from these cities....https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-best-places-to-live-in-america-in-2020-2020-10-12?mod=mw_latestnews

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30 minutes ago, Tom said:

In other news, while I was flipping through the models are reading up on some financial news, I happened to come across this article that lists the Top 20 cities to live in American.  Interestingly, many of you come from these cities....https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-best-places-to-live-in-america-in-2020-2020-10-12?mod=mw_latestnews

We seem to make every best place to live list. We might just be THAT good.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.5"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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OP Euro, for the first run, is siding with some of its ensemble members and showing a clipper system coming down and bringing a multi-inch snow event to both Dakotas & Minnesota early next week.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.5"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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4 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

OP Euro, for the first run, is siding with some of its ensemble members and showing a clipper system coming down and bringing a multi-inch snow event to both Dakotas & Minnesota early next week.

FGF mentioned this in their AFD, which is unlike them as they tend to not mention events 7 days out

Quote

There is a stark contrast between ensemble output with regards to the weekend. GEFS and ECMWF are resolving a weak shortwave with some light precipitation possible, however, the Canadian and NBM ensembles are resolving a bit more robust of a precipitation event. Both sets of ensembles are in relative agreement with any event occurring late Saturday night through Sunday. While confidence is low in the evolution of this potential event, high temperatures are trending towards sitting in the low to mid 30s for Sunday so frozen precipitation of some sort would be the likely precipitation mode. Regardless, we will continue to monitor this potential event as it moves earlier in the forecast period.

 

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.5"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Front came through last night with some thunder and lightning and gusts over 50 MPH.  Had only a few sprinkles so the drought continues.  Another red flag warning day today.    I'm sure the drought monitor map will get worse this Thursday and no chances of rain this week again.  

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There was little rain left when the front moved through here.  I only received a few hundredths.

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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On my walks over the weekend it has become very clear that the Grand Rapids area is now in the peak of the fall color. And in looking at past pictures on my phone I can say that the peak color is earlier then the past 3 Octobers. Last year the peak did not arrive here until the week of October 23 and in 2018 it was not until the week of October 26th and I have pictures of snow on the ground on October 31 2017 with leaves still on the trees.  
At this time it is cloudy and 57 here.

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1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

There was little rain left when the front moved through here.  I only received a few hundredths.

Same here. 0.05” is all.
 

The ash trees lost most of their leaves since yesterday while other trees remain green. 

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CF swept through about 30 min ago and boy did it come with some gusty winds!  The leaves were blowing off the trees and the line of showers that formed actually dumped some pretty good rain for about 10 min (0.15").  Getting another round right now.  It's back to Autumn weather this afternoon with a current temp of 55F.

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5 hours ago, jaster220 said:

As seasons transition I'm honoring those who serve the public good through service in law enforcement and fire & rescue. Acting as a shield between us and harm. Some giving their lives serving and protecting. I've experienced an emergency myself and am glad for these fine Americans.

 

20201011 Flag.PNG

Excellent pic!

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Attm, its a pleasantly mild 68F under cloudy skies.

 

Mucccccch colder by weeks end. Temps probably not getting outta the 40s for highs and lows in the 20s and 30s. Frost and Freeze warnings are looking like a real possibility.

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18 hours ago, Bryan1117 said:

This is the best the radar has looked around here for a couple of months it seems like. A nice line of strong storms from South Central Nebraska up towards Minnesota. Only one severe warned cell currently west of York along Interstate 80, however it looks like we should get a decent shot of rain and thunder in the next couple of hours in Omaha. You can do it Mother Nature! 

Screenshot 2020-10-11 204404.png

Wow....quite impressive. Cant remember when the last time I saw a line of storms like that on my radar.

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6 hours ago, Sparky said:

Same here. 0.05” is all.
 

The ash trees lost most of their leaves since yesterday while other trees remain green. 

That sugar maple photo I posted a few days ago. Well, its all but bare today even prior to this afternoon's storm. People have leaf piles at the curb already in town. Crazy fast

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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About to get hvy rain soon and some wind outta this line of showers. Most storms have weaken as they make their way across the state. Jaster, you probably got hit good w these storms earlier this evening. Anyways, it clears rapidly once this CF rolls on through, w starlit skies and chillier temps. Lows will dip into the 40s. Nothing compared to the colder readings coming by weeks end.

Key Note: Colors here are at near peak. Beautiful scenery at spots.

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3 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

"went on" more like it. That's a year old. Elsewhere was posted a CONUS map showing which calendar month had the greatest (+) departure from average. Just so happens for our area it is indeed September which has become "hot" compared to historical norms. We finally had one buck that trend in 2020. After the streak of warm years 10/11/12 it looked like permanent heat was the new normal. Then we had 13/14/15 when we could hardly buy a warm stretch. Overall we are most certainly in a warm era, which is a good thing since civilization has always thrived in such, but suffered during prolonged cold periods. The warmth also seems to have contributed to more moisture available for snow during winter which has made for quite the stretch of AN snow fall seasons around here.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

About to get hvy rain soon and some wind outta this line of showers. Most storms have weaken as they make their way across the state. Jaster, you probably got hit good w these storms earlier this evening. Anyways, it clears rapidly once this CF rolls on through, w starlit skies and chillier temps. Lows will dip into the 40s. Nothing compared to the colder readings coming by weeks end.

Key Note: Colors here are at near peak. Beautiful scenery at spots.

Was in Saugatuck along the lake when the storms hit there about 4 pm. Normally a very protected quaint town but winds/rain combo was impressive. Back home to find the rare street puddles in Marshall. Airport received the forecast 0.25" over 90 minutes and brought down a ton of leaves on the streets. Nice to see legit rainfall after the last event was a whiff around here. Nature's had a long wait for a drink.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Epic bust last night and early this AM for the Des Moines area. 100% chance of rain (between 1/4 and 1/2 inch) ((as late as 1am today)) and we managed a measly "TR" at the airport. Dallas CTY- just W of DSM, was actually put into a severe thunderstorm watch for the shortest duration I can ever remember - 1 hour- before SPC realized they jumped the gun. At least they got it right as DMX persisted in 100% chance. It failed 100%. Just glad this was not a winter storm.

 

BTW- .57" of rain here since 9/11/20. Ground is rock hard and never seen the Des Moines and Raccoon Rivers so low.  Drought breads drought.....

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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GFS showing snow for many. Either way- Grizzcoat is out of summer hibernation and  back for the season!!!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=ncus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2020101300&fh=192

 

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Yesterday's CF that swept through during the early afternoon ignited a few severe storms in N IN that dropped some hail.  More importantly, a United Flight flew through one of these stronger cells over LM that caused some severe damage to the windshield prompting an emergency landing.  Thank God nothing terrible happened.

https://wgntv.com/news/united-flight-headed-to-washington-d-c-returns-to-chicago-after-hail-cracks-windshield/

Edit: I just saw a short clip on the local TV news about this scary event and it happened around 1:53pm which was right when the CF passed on through.  One of the passengers said the turbulunce was wild shaking the plane up/down and sideways, but the scariest part was the loud sound of the hail hitting the plane.

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Say it ain't so, but we may be looking at October Snow for parts of the Plains/Upper MW early next week.  @FAR_Weather@Beltrami Island @Madtownand the rest of our MN peeps, the 00z EPS saying Winter coming early for you.  

2.png

00z Euro Op bringing back the system for early next week...major cold heading down in the central CONUS from all indication next week and into the following week.  The atmosphere is going to show us wx enthusiasts a wild case of wx porn given the magnitude of blocking that will take shape.

1.png

The 1st exhibit of this year's LRC will showcase  a massive Vortex to spin and twirl smack dab in the middle of Canada.  Quite a pretty loop and one you don't see often.  It's amazing how blocked up this pattern is going to get.  I don't think we have seen an October like this one before in many many years.  Maybe 2009???

One other fascinating feature to this developing LRC is the energy that spins down near the Baja and gets cut-off from the main flow.  This was a storm that tracked near So Cal this past Saturday/Sunday and I believe in future cycles this will play a role to a SW Flow pattern and spark the STJ during the winter months.  Notice how that trough maintains itself offshore the SW coast of the U.S. 

1.gif

 

Suddenly, all the models are turning more and more active for the central/eastern part of the Sub.

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_6.png

 

Brutal cold coming down from the Arctic early and often....

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_8.png

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The latest Euro Weeklies have abruptly turned cold for basically all of us on here and a lot wetter for the MW/GL's region and a sliver across the Plains states.  Trends are what we look for and if you had paid attn to the weeklies over the last few runs they were bone dry for literally the entire CONUS except for the SE and East Coast.  I'll add that the development of a SER among the modeling is creating this wetter pattern.  I did not see this coming based on the LR tools and BSR.  Good signs moving forward. 

 

5.png

 

 

Looking out much farther, the model is seeing something that has been flashed in year's past, but this time I got a good feeling that November (it should have a decent warm period early in the month) will turn very cold around Thanksgiving.  Got a pretty good feeling about this.  Certain things I've been looking at are starting to show up in the Strat. 

4.png

 

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I recorded 0.44″ of rain here yesterday in two very heavy showers. I did not seen any hail nor was there any thunder to report here. The leaves around here are near full color and there was a lot of leave fall yesterday. The high here at my house was 71 and the official high at the airport was 70. The overnight low here at my house was a cool 38 and at this time it is clear and 39.

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12 hours ago, jaster220 said:

"went on" more like it. That's a year old. Elsewhere was posted a CONUS map showing which calendar month had the greatest (+) departure from average. Just so happens for our area it is indeed September which has become "hot" compared to historical norms. We finally had one buck that trend in 2020. After the streak of warm years 10/11/12 it looked like permanent heat was the new normal. Then we had 13/14/15 when we could hardly buy a warm stretch. Overall we are most certainly in a warm era, which is a good thing since civilization has always thrived in such, but suffered during prolonged cold periods. The warmth also seems to have contributed to more moisture available for snow during winter which has made for quite the stretch of AN snow fall seasons around here.

Yes I agree, and I’ld much rather have a bit of warming than another ice age, which would be disastrous since we couldn’t raise crops or food! Ever notice how most of the world’s wealth, manufacturing, consumerism, etc is in the temperate zones? There aren’t nearly as many people living in colder places like central Canada, Ak, etc. 

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

00z Euro Op bringing back the system for early next week...major cold heading down in the central CONUS from all indication next week and into the following week.  The atmosphere is going to show us wx enthusiasts a wild case of wx porn given the magnitude of blocking that is will take shape.

Seven days out, otherwise I'd go absolutely nuts over the terribleness of that map for me.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.5"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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I doubt that I’ll see as much snow this month though, as I did just last October when I got 7.5” from two events at the end of that month! That was the most I’ve ever recorded in October, but I suppose there’s an outside chance it could happen two consecutive years.

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5 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Seven days out, otherwise I'd go absolutely nuts over the terribleness of that map for me.

This won't be the last chance for you...I see plenty of them as northern stream riders looking to be common...

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FGF on the weekend snow chance:

Saturday through Monday...

For reference on overall confidence in any singular outcome of this
system`s future evolution; The weekend shortwave that is expected to
produce precipitation in some manner for our forecast area is
currently sitting over the Pacific Ocean, just south of the Aleutian
Islands. As a result, there is considerable spread between models
and ensemble members alike with regards to the intensity, timing,
and positioning of the upcoming system. With that being said, there
is a general consensus that the aforementioned shortwave will impact
and likely bring precipitation in some capacity to the forecast
area. Significant spread does certainly exist but the majority of
ensemble members are resolving snow as the likely precipitation
mode. It is worth stating that most ensemble members are resolving a
40% or lower chance of snowfall totals exceeding 1 inch. At this
time, will cap the potential at a chance for light snow showers,
with possible mixed to all liquid precipitation along the southern
CWA during daylight hours on Saturday, and a return to light snow
showers possible overnight Saturday through Sunday.
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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.5"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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GFS caps snowfall at 2" over the RRV, which I think is more realistic. Euro's amounts are insane for such a weak system.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.5"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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NWS Hastings morning disco:

Models are starting to gain consistency in showing one or more
bands of precipitation moving into the area Saturday night through
Monday. Lots of uncertainty still exists, but given the cold air
in place, this could realistically end up being the first snowfall
of the season for portions of the area.
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