Jump to content
The Weather Forums

October 2020 Observations and Discussion


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 901
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Taken at 12:30PM, on the south side of Ankeny Iowa.  At least 6" on the ground.

First flakes of the season here in St. Paul today. It came down pretty heavy for 5-10 minutes this morning. .2” officially at the airport. 

Fall in the northwoods!

Posted Images

I would rather have a normal autumn and save the cold and snow for Dec-Jan-Feb.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Is this a weekend event or early next week? Des Moines NWS has zero excitement about this.

Significant differences in model timing still, but the Euro and GFS have this coming through more on Monday or Tuesday, while the Canadian has this coming through on Sunday.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, jaster220 said:

"went on" more like it. That's a year old. Elsewhere was posted a CONUS map showing which calendar month had the greatest (+) departure from average. Just so happens for our area it is indeed September which has become "hot" compared to historical norms. We finally had one buck that trend in 2020. After the streak of warm years 10/11/12 it looked like permanent heat was the new normal. Then we had 13/14/15 when we could hardly buy a warm stretch. Overall we are most certainly in a warm era, which is a good thing since civilization has always thrived in such, but suffered during prolonged cold periods. The warmth also seems to have contributed to more moisture available for snow during winter which has made for quite the stretch of AN snow fall seasons around here.

Oops, you're right, that is from last year. Here's an updated article for September 2020: https://weather.com/en-IN/india/news/news/2020-10-11-september-earths-warmest-september-record-arctic-extent-second-lowest

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at the ICON you really get a good idea of where the models are differing on this system.  The ICON tries to bring the storm in Sunday, but it appears to only send out a small piece of energy from the main wave, and that piece dries up and stalls out until the entire storm gets its act together and heads into the upper midwest dropping heavy snow in Minnesota.  So it would appear the differences lie in does this come out in multiple pieces, or one larger piece?  It will be interesting to watch the models flip flop on this in the coming days.  

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

I have lots of concerns with moisture being available and strength of this system until it gets up to the Great Lakes.  The western ridge is no friend for MO, Kan, Neb and Iowa.

  • Popcorn 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like the Canadian is dropping the storm this run.  It shows a storm coming through the upper midwest and GL on Saturday, but the system behind it sort of washes out to the south.  

Link to post
Share on other sites

Massive changes on the Euro.  The first storm just kind of strings out and then stalls and brings continuous rounds of rain and then eventually snow to the plains and high plains.

 

sn10_acc.us_c.png

 

qpf_acc.us_c.png

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Massive changes on the Euro.  The first storm just kind of strings out and then stalls and brings continuous rounds of rain and then eventually snow to the plains and high plains.

 

sn10_acc.us_c.png

 

qpf_acc.us_c.png

The EC has flashed this solution several times, including on the latest run.  The moisture would be very welcome!

  • Like 2
  • Rain 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

That euro run was way better for me. 

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.5"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

It can snow anywhere, but here, at least not just yet (preferably starting on Thanksgiving week or later and thereafter through all of Winter). Right now, I want to get cold rainstorms, followed by colder air behind the storm, windy conditions, along w leaves blowing around otg, sunny crisp days, cold nites w headlines reading "Frost and or Freeze Watch, or Warnings and etc.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Still no AFD from FGF.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.5"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Another beautiful fall evening. Doin a sirloin and potato on the Weber. Gonna burn leaves later. Currently 59 and calm with partly cloudy skies. Neighbor is burning leaves right now as I have charcoals goin. Burning leaves combined with charcoal smoke is a nice combo haha. #fallgrilling

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

I like this from GRR

Quote

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2020

- Normal temperatures / little precip till Thursday

- Coldest weather so far this fall with showers end of week

- Major issues with next week / significant weather possible

LOL, where'd that lol emoji go when I need it? (for that Euro run showing a weeny band over SWMI).

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Absolutely perfect "motoring wx" here today and I just had to take advantage of it before it's bye-bye for months. Took my sport sedan out on the hilly and winding back roads I like to traverse across the interior of SWMI. Only shame for my photo plans was the unfortunate timing of yesterday's windy rains that ripped the brightest leafs off a lot of trees that were at their most vivid peak in years. Nonetheless, I was happy as a clam in mud to be enjoying the local colors on such a fine day off. Guessing this may be it for color season pics with what's on the horizon. If autumn was like this every year, it might be my new favorite season.

 

CC 2.PNG

20201013_170810.jpg

20201013_154248.jpg

20201013_164138.jpg

20201013_165726.jpg

20201013_170943.jpg

20201013_145258.jpg

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1
  • Excited 1

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Niko said:

It can snow anywhere, but here, at least not just yet (preferably starting on Thanksgiving week or later and thereafter through all of Winter). Right now, I want to get cold rainstorms, followed by colder air behind the storm, windy conditions, along w leaves blowing around otg, sunny crisp days, cold nites w headlines reading "Frost and or Freeze Watch, or Warnings and etc.

Small snows are fine in Oct/Nov, just no major hits like last year. Tho two of the Oct snowstorm years I mentioned (89 & 06) went on to be pretty good winters. Actually, despite the Christmas to Feb interlude, Battle creek still got over 94" during 06-07. I could do that again, lol.

  • Like 2

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

A wind advisory has been issued for N IL with gusts up to 45 mph.  It's been a windy past couple of days around here which brings that autumn feel even though it was a warmer day yesterday.  Made it up to 73F and looking to match that today.  My tree is really changing color and the leaves have been falling off quite fast this year.  Looks like I'll be raking some leaves pretty soon.  It's a cool, crisp and calm 43F atm.

  • Windy 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Models are really struggling in the medium range.  The Euro is gun-ho on a stout SER (-PNA reading -4) while the other models are a bit less amped.  Big implications on whether the cold bleeds farther south/east.  Nonetheless, a much more active pattern is shaping up across the board.

 

00z Euro through next Tuesday...

1.png

 

00z EPS showing the wetter trends across the central CONUS...

2.png

 

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

In looking at the past history for this week there has been snow with up to 8" in 2006 on October 12. There was also snow on October 16 in 1943.  There have been days as warm as 87 on October 13 1975 and 86 on October 15 way back in 1899. There have even been tornadoes reported on October 11 in 1912 and on October 14 in 1954.

I had a chance last night to take a look at Mars as it was the brightest object in the sky last night. The overnight low here at my house was 38 and the current temperature is now up to 40 with cloudy skies and a red glow from the lights of Grand Rapids to my south.
 

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Attm, its 48F under mostly cloudy skies. Looks like my area is at peak now. Looks awesome out there. No wind to drop them off the trees, so that's good. Actually, where I am at, I have a copse area to the back of my property, so during the Autumn season, it looks absolutely beautiful. I know M Nature will kick in some wind from the CF coming tomorrow, so that will be it.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Bottomed at 35F this morn. 4 deg's below my grid for a change, tho chilly mornings are in vogue this autumn. Caused my furnace to cycle on which is fine. Got 3 pets and if I go space heaters only, they huddle around it so I know they are not acclimated to a cold house and can't even put on more layers like us humans.

  • Like 3

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Bottomed at 35F this morn. 4 deg's below my grid for a change, tho chilly mornings are in vogue this autumn. Caused my furnace to cycle on which is fine. Got 3 pets and if I go space heaters only, they huddle around it so I know they are not acclimated to a cold house and can't even put on more layers like us humans.

Amigo, you might (probably will) hit the 20s Friday nite!! Get that "Furnace" ready. 🔥

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Absolutely perfect "motoring wx" here today and I just had to take advantage of it before it's bye-bye for months. Took my sport sedan out on the hilly and winding back roads I like to traverse across the interior of SWMI. Only shame for my photo plans was the unfortunate timing of yesterday's windy rains that ripped the brightest leafs off a lot of trees that were at their most vivid peak in years. Nonetheless, I was happy as a clam in mud to be enjoying the local colors on such a fine day off. Guessing this may be it for color season pics with what's on the horizon. If autumn was like this every year, it might be my new favorite season.

 

CC 2.PNG

20201013_170810.jpg

20201013_154248.jpg

20201013_164138.jpg

20201013_165726.jpg

20201013_170943.jpg

20201013_145258.jpg

Excellent photos! Good job....👍

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

CMC has something forming in the northern Rockies at the end of the run as well, similar to what the GFS is showing. Obviously long range but all the models seem to be getting active with some cold air in place. Nice trends

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Sustained wind speeds here right now are 35mph.

  • Windy 2

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.5"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Nice looking storm.

Yes it is.  I know you have been very dry and today I am under a fire weather warning.  Looks like we may have some relief coming.

Link to post
Share on other sites

JUICE

Euro 8.png

  • Like 1
  • Excited 1
  • Sun 1
  • Snow 3

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.5"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

The wind has died down to normal levels. 37.9*F.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.5"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

NAM brings Saturday's low right over me @ 993mb. All rain and dry air except for backside snow. Definitely farther North than GFS and Euro. This storm will be a guinea pig for testing biases of the different models.

  • Like 2

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 7.5"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

CF is sweeping through this morning as temps are now beginning to drop into the 50's amid strong SW winds that will turn NW when the secondary CF makes its way here later this morning.  This will be a healthy arctic front in future cycles.  

 

@FAR_Weather, models are starting to show some consistency and advertising your 1st accumulating snow of the season this Sat/Sun period or very close to you.

00z Ukie...

 

 

sn10_acc.us_nc.png

 

00z Euro...

4.png

 

00z GFS...

 

sn10_acc.us_nc.png

 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

First Freeze Watch's of the season being hoisted around the region for Friday morning!  Time to harvest my last tomato's and cucumbers.  

4.png

 

While on the topic of freezing temps, once you add precip into the mix we find ourselves with opportunities of Snow for those members west and north across our Sub.  My goodness, the map below off the 00z EPS is signaling some brutal cold at this distance for Week 2 and a ton of snowfall across S C.A. sparing no remorse for our friends up north!  #WinterIsComing  #2020

5.png

 

Remember how dry the models were not long ago???  How quickly things can change in the model world.  All in all, these are positive trends and a lot to look forward to.  The pattern is going to get quite active and it's starting today.

 

6.png

 

 

  • Like 1
  • Snow 1
  • Rain 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Taking a look at today's JMA weeklies, notice how badly it busted for its Week 2 forecast from last week to this week...

Last week it was advertising major warmth across western Canada into the PAC NW...

Y202010.D0712_gl2.png

 

This week, however, it's literally opposite of what is going to happen.  Geeze, that's pretty terrible and prob a sign of the times as we move forward.

Y202010.D1412_gl2.png

 

Week 2...significant cooling is expected as all the models are locking in on a major trough into the eastern CONUS.  Look at that blocking.  BSR will have done well if this transpires.

Y202010.D1412_gl2.png

 

2.png

Week 3-4....if we run the table with cold, this would be reminiscent to Oct-Nov '13 and maybe a bit of Nov' 14.  Wild to even consider this happening given how warm we have been over the past year.  Early ice build up this season on our lakes for the outdoors???  Could be.  Pattern also looks very active and it appears the Caribbean and Atlantic ain't done yet with tropical systems in the East.

 

3.png

Y202010.D1412_gl2.png

 

Y202010.D1412_gl0.png

  • Like 2
  • Snow 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...