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RDPS has me right on the rain-snow line for basically the entire event.

 

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (3.3"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 3.9"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Taken at 12:30PM, on the south side of Ankeny Iowa.  At least 6" on the ground.

Fall in the northwoods!

As seasons transition I'm honoring those who serve the public good through service in law enforcement and fire & rescue. Acting as a shield between us and harm. Some giving their lives serving and

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Those Bearing Sea storms in early October are showing up for late next weekend across the eastern CONUS.  I just got the chillzzz looking at the 12z EPS.  That's some major October cold from the 25th onward.  Today's 12z Euro Op ushers in hard freezes throughout a lot of this Sub by next weekend.  In fact, there may be multiple days in a row with snow flying from the sky.  It's like we are fast forwarding to late Nov/early Dec.

 

Below is the 10-15 day mean temp along with the anomalies for the 25th/26th...

 

1.png

 

2.png

 

3.png

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Another headline for my area tanite.....😃

Frost Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
258 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2020

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-171200-
/O.NEW.KDTX.FR.Y.0005.201017T0600Z-201017T1200Z/
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-
Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-
Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Midland, Bay City, Bad Axe, Saginaw,
Caro, Sandusky, Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron, Howell,
Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe
258 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2020

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 31 will result in frost
  formation.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Michigan.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if
  left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&
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For: Jaster

For: Tom

Are ya guys ready for this.......

Per Accu-Weather:

Quote:  Some of the computer models depict a swath of snow from Chicago to just north of Detroit on Monday and Monday night. The average first accumulating snow is on Nov. 16 and Nov. 15 in Chicago and Detroit, respectively. However, both cities picked up their first accumulating snow on Oct. 12 back in 2006, so it is not unheard to have accumulating snow by the middle of October. Wow! Lets see what happens......

 

 

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FGF is still VERY INSISTENT on the US-2 corridor seeing the highest amounts despite models suggesting otherwise since 00Z. Freakin sigh.

Quote

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020

Main highlights within this forecast issuance remains to be
the attempt to refine details regarding tonight into tomorrow`s
clipper. A couple points where our confidence stands:

1) Confidence is high in accumulating snowfall outstretched west
to east across the area entering the western CWA late tonight
lasting through the morning over much of the area before exiting
east deeper into Minnesota tomorrow afternoon. Confidence is also
high in a broad accumulation over 3 inches for those under the
heaviest snow. For these reasons in addition to this being the
season`s first significant snowfall (a nudging factor which has a
proven track record of increasing impacts some) a Winter Weather
Advisory was issued. Another area of high confidence is the
likelihood of some locations seeing greater than 6 inches of snow
due to heavy snow rates exceeding 1 inch per hour at times. With
this likelihood, don`t be surprised on an upgrade to a Winter
Storm Warning with little to no lead time. We just don`t know
where these locations are exactly. More on that within the
following point. These heavy snow rates will also serve to
significantly reduce visibility to half a mile or less, despite a
general lack of wind during snowfall.

2a) Confidence still lacks in exact location of the swath of
snow. There is still spread in this within the 12Z hires,
ensemble, and deterministic guidance. General consensus from run
to run suite of guidance seems to still favor along and just
south of the US Hwy 2 corridor with the best chance of seeing at
least 3 inches of snow. Outlier guidance places the snow`s axis a
bit further north as well as south of this with some favoring
along and north of US Hwy 2 (HRRR in particular), and the other
outliers favoring more of the I-94 corridor. This location will
have direct influence on impacts and accumulations. So the main
takeaway of location uncertainty? Areas along the I-94 corridor
all the way up to the Canadian border should prepare to see
snow accumulation.

2b) Another complicating factor is low level dry air ahead of the
system as observed by satellite imagery (namely the decreased
values of the Sfc-H7 ALPW products) as well as 12 UTC RAOBs across
the Northern High Plains. This may delay the onset of precip
somewhat compared to what radar will depict, as well as tighten up
the snow gradient on its southern side.

2c) Additionally, we are unsure of the upper range snowfall
amounts due to uncertainty in timing, magnitude, and residency
time of mesoscale forcing factors like fgen and instability. We
will have to wait until these features develop and observe how
they influence WAA and deformation type synoptic forcing.

With most of the snowfall occurring overnight into the morning
hours, we anticipate travel conditions to deteriorate with the
lack of diurnal heating on the surface. Once we start getting
deeper into the day, impacts will be more confined to heaviest
snowfall (likely to be within Minnesota by mid-morning).

As the clipper exits east during the day Saturday, northwest winds
will increase to around 25 mph leading to some patchy drifting
snow, although an October`s sun`s influence, relatively light
winds and afternoon temps in 30s and 40s will greatly limit further
impacts from blowing/drifting snow.

By Saturday night, skies clear and dry conditions return. This
clear sky, fresh snow and a cold air mass will make for another
cold night as temps dip into the teens. A lingering breeze from
the west however should keep most areas from bottoming out even
further.

 

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (3.3"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 3.9"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Nothing going on around here..

AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 343 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2020 LATEST UPDATE... Synopsis/Discussion/Marine/FireWeather .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2020 - Frost Saturday morning - Convective showers tonight - System Sat has wind threat / Sun system has a rain threat - Rain Monday may mix with snow in the evening - System midweek, than, a stronger system end of week

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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BAM! Storm Warning for Lake Michigan. That came outta nowhere. Talk about positive developments.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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And this onshore..

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
458 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2020

MIZ051-056>058-064-071-162300-
Montcalm-Ionia-Allegan-Ottawa-Van Buren-Kent-
458 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2020

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN VAN
BUREN...ALLEGAN...KENT...OTTAWA...WESTERN IONIA AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTCALM COUNTIES...

At 455 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Allegan, are
moving east at 35 mph. Another line of storms is moving just north
of I 96 and is moving to the north east at 35 mph. The stronger
storms will be capable of creating wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and
pea size hail.
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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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HRRR, the last Northern outlier, has finally moved South and is bringing highest accums to my place.

18

 

Buttttt according to FGF, any model that doesn't have only Grand Forks getting over an inch is an outlier.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (3.3"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 3.9"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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58 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Nothing going on around here..

AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 343 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2020 LATEST UPDATE... Synopsis/Discussion/Marine/FireWeather .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2020 - Frost Saturday morning - Convective showers tonight - System Sat has wind threat / Sun system has a rain threat - Rain Monday may mix with snow in the evening - System midweek, than, a stronger system end of week

Calm before the storm? Maybe? Things will be interesting soon enough I think.

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KFAR reported a trace this morning... That doesn't seem right. It was definitely measurable all around the city.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (3.3"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 3.9"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Calm before the storm? Maybe? Things will be interesting soon enough I think.

Haha. NO. I typed "sarc" but auto-correct messed it up when I posted. Hyper-active is more like it. Hoping this happens during ❄ season

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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D**n, I'm having to worry about this thing diving too far South now lol.

It's really hard to match radar to models to see how they compare. Radar looks nothing like any of the models. Surface analysis isn't out yet so I can't look at that to compare. I will say, radar is a lot more moist than any of the models had. Whoever gets jacked by this thing will probably overachieve, barring a farther South shift which would result in mostly rain.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (3.3"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 3.9"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Are they looking at different models? They really don't want to acknowledge the consistent South shift that we've seen over the past 24 hours, only saying that it's "variability".

Quote

.UPDATE...
Issued at 659 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2020

Generally quiet conditions still expected through the early
evening, with main focus still on timing/track of clipper.
Variability is apparent in new CAMs coming in (some favoring
southerly shifts), but there remains run-run variance in CAMs
which is not uncommon especially as the actual shortwave has yet
to move into or begin to organize over western ND. Upstream
tendencies of satellite/radar still support forecast from previous
shift and reasoning, so no changes necessary in potential impacts.
dry air may delay initial onset, but impacts should increase
after 06Z in line with current Hazard Products. Only minor
adjustments to near term trends made at this time.

 

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (3.3"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 3.9"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Temps were NOT supposed to get this low this early. Seeing as surface temps were the primary concern outside of track, this is a good sign. 31.1*F.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (3.3"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 3.9"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said:

Are they looking at different models? They really don't want to acknowledge the consistent South shift that we've seen over the past 24 hours, only saying that it's "variability".

 

"Variability"="Too lazy and prideful to make changes, but we're probably wrong. We're blaming something else." 

🤪

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Spoke a bit too soon earlier, lol. 32.4°F.

Flurries are flying.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (3.3"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 3.9"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Went from light flurries, to heavy flurries, back to light flurries. 33.6°F and rising.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (3.3"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 3.9"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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4 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Went from light flurries, to heavy flurries, back to light flurries. 33.6°F and rising.

Enjoy your 1st accumulating snow of the season!  The radar looks south of where the advisories have been posted.  

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Yet another windy day on tap, another Wind Advisory hoisted with gusts approaching 50mph.  This is the second wind advisory of the week!  I'm getting this feeling the atmosphere is gearing itself up early and often this cold season.  My goodness, some early season ARCTIC  air is heading down through the heartland next weekend into the last week of October.  Holy smokes.  Ol' Man Winter has come out of hibernation and the "Nanook from the North" is going to make its presence as well driving south off the Arctic circle.

 

But First, Nature is going to lay down the foundation before some brutal early season cold arrives.  00z EPS next 10 days saying Winter coming early for our friends up north.  The northern stream seems to me like it wants to scream next week as an active La Nina type pattern sets up.  This part of the LRC will certainly looking very interesting, esp when you take a look at the entire picture of the blocking, Polar Vortex up north, coupled with an active wave train underneath the "belly of the beast".

2.png

 

00z Euro op...crazy snow fall amounts being spit out for this early in the season...

 

1.png

 

Snow cover has expanded and is growing at a rapid pace across Canada...

 

Forecast Image

 

cursnow_alaska.gif

 

Likewise, it has grown across central and eastern Siberia/Eurasia...

cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

 

The Northern Hemisphere is showing some fascinating signs early on that could lead towards severe winter in parts of our hemisphere this winter season.  Will it finally show up in the Lower 48 across the majority of the population??? 

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

Enjoy your 1st accumulating snow of the season!  The radar looks south of where the advisories have been posted.  

Yes, it is. I have NO CLUE why FGF insisted on it being that far North even long after both models and radar trended south, that was weird. I've never seen a WFO so insistent on a solution that was obviously going to be wrong.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (3.3"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 3.9"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Waking up to.... Rain. Wet ground, and rain drops. Snow to the west, snow to the East, but rain here. At least I was right to call out the NWS last night. 36.0°F.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (3.3"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 3.9"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Just changed from rain to snow. Decent returns coming. 34.5°F.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (3.3"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 3.9"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

00z Euro op...crazy snow fall amounts being spit out for this early in the season...

 

1.png

Clipper train bringing repeated snow here. Amazing. We won't get 15" but 10" may not be out of the question by D10.

  • Snow 2

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (3.3"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 3.9"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Here's the current radar situation here. Precip all the way out to Montana. RDPS was actually the best model for this one. No other models showed a late changeover. 

 

Static map

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (3.3"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 3.9"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Took a while to begin accumulating. It is now, but we're down to light rates. Holding steady at 32.9*F.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (3.3"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 3.9"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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There were 2 periods of small hail here yesterday the first one in the morning the hail fell very hard and covered the ground for a short while. The 2nd last night was hail mixed with heavy rain. Also there were a few flashes of lightning here last night with the temperatures in the upper 30’s  I had a total of 0.17” of rain mixed with hail. The low here  last night for the 2nd night in a row was 30 at this time it is cloudy and 37.

 

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1 minute ago, Tom said:

What city do you live in up north now? Near Hayward?

Right now still back and forth between Manitowish Waters and Madison....cleaning out the house down there...We'll be in Mani Waters while looking for a house in Boulder Junction, Presque Isle or Manitowish.

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Hit the big "3" "O" this morning (30F). I'm not used to this dropping like a rock stuff, especially so frequently.

Would not be a good day to take the car ferry across Lake Michigan from Ludington.

 

20201017 GRR Waves graphic.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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In news that isn't news (up north anyways), it looks likely there was a minor snow dust-up overnight just a few counties north of here. Getting closer..

 

20201017 1226am NMI Radar.PNG

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

Yet another windy day on tap, another Wind Advisory hoisted with gusts approaching 50mph.  This is the second wind advisory of the week!  I'm getting this feeling the atmosphere is gearing itself up early and often this cold season.  My goodness, some early season ARCTIC  air is heading down through the heartland next weekend into the last week of October.  Holy smokes.  Ol' Man Winter has come out of hibernation and the "Nanook from the North" is going to make its presence as well driving south off the Arctic circle.

 

But First, Nature is going to lay down the foundation before some brutal early season cold arrives.  00z EPS next 10 days saying Winter coming early for our friends up north.  The northern stream seems to me like it wants to scream next week as an active La Nina type pattern sets up.  This part of the LRC will certainly looking very interesting, esp when you take a look at the entire picture of the blocking, Polar Vortex up north, coupled with an active wave train underneath the "belly of the beast".

2.png

 

00z Euro op...crazy snow fall amounts being spit out for this early in the season...

 

1.png

 

Snow cover has expanded and is growing at a rapid pace across Canada...

 

Forecast Image

 

cursnow_alaska.gif

 

Likewise, it has grown across central and eastern Siberia/Eurasia...

cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

 

The Northern Hemisphere is showing some fascinating signs early on that could lead towards severe winter in parts of our hemisphere this winter season.  Will it finally show up in the Lower 48 across the majority of the population??? 

This is pretty intense. Been a long time since I've experienced an autumn that felt like winter's freight train had left the arctic station and was bearing down. 1995's super early winter in NMI comes to memory. '89 would be the next one going back in time. I'm intrigued by the potential OHV systems you've been monitoring as well. That would be a huge omen for good around here.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Currently holding in the 40s under deep, blue sunny skies. Last nite once again, temps tumbled to below freezing (31F).

Near peak in my area now, if not peak already. Tree colors combined w the blue sky is a magnificent scenery. Post card picture.

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12Z GFS continues the clipper train trend.

I'm rooting for a Saturday storm, as it's looking likely that whatever snow I get from that will probably stick around for a couple of days.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (3.3"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 3.9"            Coldest Low: 21*F (10/18)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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37 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

12Z GFS continues the clipper train trend.

I'm rooting for a Saturday storm, as it's looking likely that whatever snow I get from that will probably stick around for a couple of days.

Very active. That energy next weekend into the following week looks interesting. The idea of one or two big systems has been showing up for a few days now.

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