Well, hard to believe we are already putting meteorological summer behind us.  September begins the transition to Fall, at least in theory, as it is not necessarily looking like a cool type of month for much of the central and eastern US.  On the northern fringe of the hotter air, there should be periodic storm/severe chances running through parts of the Midwest and perhaps into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic at least for the first week of the month, with details tbd of course.

Well, 103* to start Fall with. 
But it’s always an unofficial kickoff. We tend to see Fall in October, even then Texas has had some very hot Octobers. 
I’ll take it whenever it gets here. 

 

 

LOT has issued a Heat Advisory here for the next couple days.

I went back and checked and it appears that the last time that LOT issued a Heat Advisory anywhere in their cwa in September was in 2011.  Granted we are in the first couple days of the month, but still.  My area was not in that heat advisory back then, so not sure the last time that it happened here in September. 

You may recall a rather impressive heat wave in Sepetmber 2017, but dewpoints with that were generally not that high and not enough to issue an advisory.

The new tropical depression in the Gulf has some sneaky overachiever potential imo.  It's going to run out of time over water to get out of hand, but can't completely rule out a borderline hurricane at landfall.

looks like a torch month

13 minutes ago, summerrules said:

looks like a torch month

I was surprised to see that the warmest September on record for Chicago is 71.2 degrees, which is "only" +4.9 above the 1991-2020 normal.  

Welcome to September and the start of meteorological autumn. Boy where did the summer go it seems like it was just yesterday and we started summer and now we are entering the start of the fall season. For the month of September, the average mean for the month at Grand Rapids is 63.5° the top 5 warmest Septembers are 1^st  69.0 in 1931, 2^nd  68.1 in 1933 and 1908, 3^rd 67.9 in 1921, 4^th 67.5 in 1906 and 5^th 67.2 in 2015. The top 5 coolest are 1^st 56.2 in 1918, 2^nd 56.4 in 1974, 3^rd 56.5 1993, 4^th 56.9 in 1975 and 5^th 58.1 in 1949. At Grand Rapids the average H/L starts out on the 1^st at 79/58 by the 15^th its down to 74/53 and by the 30^th it’s 68/45.   The record high for September is 98 on September 2^nd 1913 the record low is 27 on September 27^th, 1991. The average rainfall for September at Grand Rapids is 3.43” the top 5 wettest are 1^st 11.85” in 1986, 2^nd 9.54” in 2008, 3^rd 9.52” in 1981, 4^th 9.15” in 1931 and 5^th 8.20” in 1993.  The top 5 dryest 1^st trace 1979, 2^nd 0.65” in 1940, 3^rd 0.66” in 2017, 4^th 0.67” in 2004 and 5^th 0.68” in 1956. As for  meteorological autumn the average mean temperature is 51.6 on average there is 10.55” of total precipitation and 7.4” of snowfall. Here is the latest update from the CPC for the month of September.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

Detailed Forecast For Grand Rapids

Today

Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Heat index values as high as 95. Light southwest wind becoming west southwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph.

Tonight

A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. West southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Wednesday

A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Calm wind becoming west southwest 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.

Wednesday Night

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 2am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. Light west southwest wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday

A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday Night

A 50 percent chance of showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68.

Friday

A chance of showers before 8am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8am and 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 84. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Friday Night

A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67.

Saturday

A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8am. Partly sunny, with a high near 83.

Saturday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.

Sunday

Partly sunny, with a high near 82.

Sunday Night

A chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 62.

Labor Day

Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.

Climate report. The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 82/68 there were 10 CDD’s there was 0.11” of rainfall the highest wind gust was 23MPH out of the S. weather events reported were thunderstorm, rain, light rain, fog.  For today the average H/L is 79/58 the record high of 97 was in 1953 the coolest high of 59 was in 1982 the record low of 40 was in 1896 the warmest low of 75 was in 1912.  The most rainfall of 1.06” was in 1905. Last year the H/L was 77/50.

Some weather history for September 1^st.  1987, Cool Canadian air invaded the Midwest. Six cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Indianapolis IN with a reading of 44 degrees. Hot weather continued in the northwestern U.S. Five cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Hanover WA, where the mercury soared to 106 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) Here in Michigan 1953, A heat wave that began in late August continued into September, with record highs of 97 degrees at Grand Rapids and 96 at Lansing. The 95 degrees at Muskegon tied the record high for the month there. 2009, September begins with temperatures more typical of October. Lows include 41 degrees at Muskegon, 36 at Ludington, Hersey and Baldwin, and 35 at Harrison. Cadillac fell to 32 degrees for the second morning in a row, and Leota in Clare County fell to 30 degrees.

 

 

Welcome to met Autumn!!  It is one of the coolest mornings (72F) that I have felt in WEEKS!  Wow, I couldn't ask for a better way to open up SEP out here in the Valley of the Sun.  It's as if Mother Nature has blessed us with a timely BN weather pattern out here.

As @westMJim said, it feels like this summer zipped on by...it wasn't long ago I was dealing with a family emergency during Memorial Day weekend that ended up being my main focus for weeks caring for my mother.  With that being said, I'm grateful that her healing and recovery process is going very well and her spirits are high. 

A toasty low of 77 this morning at ORD.  Record is 78 though, so no record high min today.  A couple of the record high mins that are coming up could be threatened though.

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Welcome to met Autumn!!  It is one of the coolest mornings (72F) that I have felt in WEEKS!  Wow, I couldn't ask for a better way to open up SEP out here in the Valley of the Sun.  It's as if Mother Nature has blessed us with a timely BN weather pattern out here.

As @westMJim said, it feels like this summer zipped on by...it wasn't long ago I was dealing with a family emergency during Memorial Day weekend that ended up being my main focus for weeks caring for my mother.  With that being said, I'm grateful that her healing and recovery process is going very well and her spirits are high. 

Glad to hear that your mom is doing better!

25 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Glad to hear that your mom is doing better!

Thank you very much.  Life is fragile at times and I value how important family is to all of us.  

There is some signal for potential supercell development down into northern IL/IN later Thursday.  Low level shear is lacking though so probably not much of a tornado threat as it looks now.

Pretty respectable heat indices for this time of year for this part of the country.  Probably still an hour or two away from peaking.

 

It's a very hot first day of September,  currently 100 with a heat index at 103.  No break in the heat through the weekend. 

It's looking like yet another hot dry September for Missouri.  You have to go back to 2021 to find a September that drought wasn't an issue.

High of 95 at ORD, which is the first 95+ day in September since 2017.  

Saw some hints of increased storm activity in Mid-September, which would match the start of the Oklahoma State Fair, it's almost annual at this point!

There's a signal across the guidance for somewhat lower dewpoints tomorrow around the Chicago area compared to today.  So that *could* potentially allow for slightly warmer highs tomorrow if that pans out.

You know, some people are convinced that they have a dome over their city when it comes to snow storms. I've become convinced that Sioux Falls has a dome over it when it comes to thunderstorms. Somehow they always miss us in every direction.

Tonight I have cells off to my west, south, and east when we were supposed to be in a pretty good spot. I guess at least I can watch them off in the distance.

Good morning. It has been a warm overnight here in Grand Rapids and the 7AM temperature here in my yard is 72 with clear skies. If it stays at 72 until midnight it will be one of the warmest overnight lows at Grand Rapids.  There are some thunderstorms off to the NW that should pass to the north of Grand Rapids. Today should be very warm with highs in the upper 80’s tonight there is around a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms with a low around 70. Thursday and Friday will still be warm with a good chance of showers and thunder. Highs should be in the low to mid 80’s and lows in the upper 60’s.

Detailed Forecast For Grand Rapids

Today

Partly sunny, with a high near 89. Light and variable wind becoming west southwest 6 to 11 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph.

Tonight

A chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between midnight and 2am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday

A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 1pm and 5pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 84. Calm wind becoming west northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Thursday Night

A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8am and 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday Night

A 40 percent chance of showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66.

Saturday

A 30 percent chance of showers before 8am. Partly sunny, with a high near 80.

Saturday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 62.

Sunday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.

Sunday Night

A chance of showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62.

Labor Day

A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 79.

Monday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60.

Tuesday

Partly sunny, with a high near 76.

Climate report. August 2026 was a average month temperature wise with a mean of 71.2° that is a departure of 0.1° from the average of 71.1° the highest reading for the month was 88 on the 7^th and the low for the month was 52 on the 24^th the coolest high of 71 was on the 1^st and the warmest low of 71 was on the 16^th There was 4.92” of rainfall that is a departure from average of +1.37”  The climate report for September 1^st at Grand Rapids the official H/L was 88/69 there were 14 CDD’s there was no rainfall the highest wind gust was 24 MPH out of the SW weather events reported was fog.  For today the average H/L is 78/58 the record high of 98 was in 1913 the coolest high of 53 was in 1974 the record low of 37 was in 1946 the warmest low of 74 was in 2011 and 1937. The most rainfall of 2.17” was in 1923. Last year the H/L was 79/52.

Some weather history for September 2^nd 1935, Perhaps the most intense hurricane ever to hit the U.S. struck the Florida Keys with 200 mph winds. The hurricane produced a fifteen foot tide and waves thirty feet high. 400 persons perished in the storm on that Labor Day. The barometric pressure at Matecumbe Bay FL hits a record low for the U.S. of 26.35 inches. (David Ludlum) Here in Michigan, 1913, Grand Rapids hits 98 degrees tying their record high for the month of September.

 

 

Sept 1st 2018 I went to the UofM, Notre Dame game in South Bend.   It was so humid they ran out of water at the stadium.  My wife was pregnant with twins at the time so we left at the end of the 3rd quarter to go to the bar across from the stadium to meet some friends to finish the game.    

I thought that was muggy, but the last 36 hours is the muggiest I've felt in a long time.   

Summer is refusing to release its grip on temperatures for roughly the next week, then there may be some signs of a slight cooldown back closer to normal mid-month with maybe even some low temps down into the 40s.

6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Summer is refusing to release its grip on temperatures for roughly the next week, then there may be some signs of a slight cooldown back closer to normal mid-month with maybe even some low temps down into the 40s.

It's been a relentless summer for the most part up near you?  I think you've been on the northern periphery of the ridge for the most part, although, when it has poked northward into the upper MW its been a furnace!  This should be the last of it and you can no mentally prepare for Autumn by mid month I would imagine.

Some subtle signs that maybe an intense line of storms heads your way over the Labor Day Weekend.

 

41 minutes ago, Tom said:

It's been a relentless summer for the most part up near you?  I think you've been on the northern periphery of the ridge for the most part, although, when it has poked northward into the upper MW its been a furnace!  This should be the last of it and you can no mentally prepare for Autumn by mid month I would imagine.

Some subtle signs that maybe an intense line of storms heads your way over the Labor Day Weekend.

 

Overall the summer has been warmer than normal up here, with July being a particularly warm month especially when it comes to overnight lows. Thankfully August came in fairly close to normal but then it's jacked back up again recently over the past week or so with some pretty hot temps and humid conditions.

While I like warm and sunny weather I am definitely ready for cooler fall temps and less humidity, and what comes after that - finally tracking snow storms again. Bring it on!

Edouard packed a decent punch down in Texas.  I think the intensifying through landfall aspect was on display as well as there were still fairly strong sustained winds and gusts being observed well after landfall.  Systems that are strengthening through landfall often seem to be more efficient wind producers on land.

It's obviously very early, but I wonder if Chicago might be in the running for the warmest September on record.  Any cooldown is looking transient before temps look to pop back to well above average.  Should be building quite a temperature surplus at least through the first half or more of September.  

25 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

It's obviously very early, but I wonder if Chicago might be in the running for the warmest September on record.  Any cooldown is looking transient before temps look to pop back to well above average.  Should be building quite a temperature surplus at least through the first half or more of September.  

I was honestly wondering if September could somehow end up warmer than August in Chicago this year. But for that to happen, it’d have to average 74.3 or higher, which is more than 3 degrees warmer than the warmest September on record. That would be absolutely astonoshing. Seems very unlikely, but I guess you never know.

Low of 78 at ORD this morning, which should hold. That would tie the all-time record high minimum. Pretty impressive.

This pattern is relentless. Constantly above avg temps and very dry. MSP had their 4th driest August on record.

5 hours ago, summerrules said:

Low of 78 at ORD this morning, which should hold. That would tie the all-time record high minimum. Pretty impressive.

High of 96 and low of 78 today.  Doing July proud, lol

3 large trees were cut down on my block today... they were heavily damaged in the derecho with many very large branches broken off, so at some point you have to consider the aesthetics of leaving them up, let alone potential for failure in the future.  Just as I was starting to get used to the new post-storm landscape here...

30 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

High of 96 and low of 78 today.  Doing July proud, lol

Last time Chicago hit 96 in September was 9/6/1990, so it's been a minute.

France about to have its 6th record breaking "heat dome" of the warm season

Good morning. With an official low of 73 at Grand Rapids it was the 2^nd warmest minimum for any September 2^nd.  It has been yet another warm overnight here in Grand Rapids and the 6:30AM temperature here in my yard is 71 with clear skies. I had a brief shower last night that dropped 0.03” of rainfall. Today there is a chance of some showers with a high in the mid 80’s tonight there is a better chance of showers with a low in the upper 60’s Friday has around a 60% chance of showers with a high in the lower 80’s.  The labor day weekend should be a little cooler with highs in the upper 70’s and lows from around 60 to the mid 60’s.  Tuesday and Wednesday should be warm.

Detailed Forecast For Grand Rapids

Today

A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8am, then a chance of showers between 8am and 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 8 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tonight

A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 68. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Friday

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 9am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9am and 10am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday Night

A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph in the evening.

Saturday

A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8am, then a slight chance of showers between 8am and 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. East wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 59.

Sunday

Sunny, with a high near 79.

Sunday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 60.

Labor Day

Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.

Monday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 62.

Tuesday

Partly sunny, with a high near 81.

Tuesday Night

A chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68.

Wednesday

A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 80.

Climate report for Grand Rapids.  The official H/L yesterday was 92/73 that 73 is the 2^nd warmest low for any September 2^nd at Grand Rapids.  There were 18 CDD’s a trace of rainfall was recorded the highest wind gust was 27 MPH out of the W.  Weather events were light rain, fog and haze.  For today the average H/L is 78/58 the record high of 95 was in 1898 and 1953 the coolest high of 58 was in 1905 the record low of 32 was in 1946(that is the earliest low of 32 at Grand Rapids) the warmest low of 73 was in 1937. The most rainfall of 1.42” was in 1988. Last year the H/L was 71/55 and there was 0.57” of rainfall.

Some weather history for September 3^rd.  1953, The temperature at Erie PA reached 99 degrees, and Stroudsburg PA established a state record for September with a reading of 106 degrees. (The Weather Channel) 1987, Temperatures dipped into the 40s and 50s for morning lows across much of the eastern half of the country, with eleven cities reporting record lows for the date. Pellston MI tied Gunnison CO for honors as the cold spot in the nation with a low of 30 degrees. Smoke from forest fires darkened skies in southern Oregon and northern California. (The National Weather Summary) Here in Michigan 1946,  There was an early taste of autumn as Grand Rapids falls to 32 degrees for their earliest freeze on record.

 

 

21 hours ago, tStacsh said:

I thought that was muggy, but the last 36 hours is the muggiest I've felt in a long time

Dew points are not kept in the record books and I am not sure why.  But I did have a DP yesterday of 78 so yes it was very humid. 

This is a pretty cool shot of the three hurricanes in the Pacific.

Lowell, Karina, and Marie.

Looks like outflow is about to come through here.

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

This is a pretty cool shot of the three hurricanes in the Pacific.

Lowell, Karina, and Marie.

Probably like a .001% chance of seeing something like that in the Atlantic this year, haha

32 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Looks like outflow is about to come through here.

There goes the Extreme Heat Warning!  #bust. I saw earlier this morning that COOK was under one and now the very southern tip is holding onto it.